Trader P/L 2009

[edabreu 10]

I am beginning to really hate the 'new' ES. Today was the first decent ES trade I have had in a long while.

The CL & TF have been working well, and I may be dropping or at least not trading (just looking which seems to be what I have been doing anyways since you can't trade that thing with all those autobots and) the ES and may add another quick trending instrument. Beans?

[brownsfan019 17]

I am beginning to really hate the 'new' ES. Today was the first decent ES trade I have had in a long while.

The CL & TF have been working well, and I may be dropping or at least not trading (just looking which seems to be what I have been doing anyways since you can't trade that thing with all those autobots and) the ES and may add another quick trending instrument. Beans?

 

You know what I'll say - check the ZS out for sure. CL + TF + ZS = quite the trio of liquid, quick moving markets IMO.

 

There's also bonds and the Euro. Some good choices there as well. I have a love/hate with the Euro so I don't trade it much anymore. I do like Bonds but prefer to focus on oil due to bigger profit potential.

[subterfuge 10]

+73

 

tough one again. Not much enjoying the alternating green/red days im experiencing at the moment. Done some number crunching and im ending up each week still, but a drop in performance is always dissapointing i guess...

[Dinerotrader 10]

The Silver Lining. I've been looking for something to brighten my day after the losses and I realized that the commissions I am paying per trade are lower than I expected. I was always figuring $5 round trip but they are much less than that.

:thumbs up:

[DugDug 10]

As a side note to the ES talk - there are a lot of long term CTA trend traders out there who also dont use the SP500 as well. Turns out it gets a little choppy even long term.

From my own testing of this I would agree. While from a visual point of view it looks like it trends, the whips seem to stop you out a lot unless your stops are extra wide.

 

Look for the easy money that suits your style. Trading is not about ego and mastering the most difficult product. (or maybe it is for some:doh:)

 

good luck

[Gabe2004 10]

If we know that the herd mentality is typically wrong, then I want most retail guys trading the ES and grinding out a tick here and there. If we know that most retail traders lose and fade out and most want to master the ES (but never do) then I want nothing to do with those odds. If we know that the big boys and their algos are all over the ES and they are much better at this than me, I want nothing to do with that.

 

In the end, you get to choose your opponent in trading. I choose to go where it's the easiest (read: not easy) for me to make money. I choose to go where my setups routinely work and yield net positive results over time in the easiest way possible. And right now, that means trading oil, the Russell and soybeans. If one of those die out, then I will look for a replacement or just trade the 2 that are working. This is also why I think it's smart to watch multiple markets and trade your highest probability setups vs. staring at 1 market waiting to trade. Can you imagine staring at the ES chart all day? No thank you.

 

Choose your trading opponents carefully as they are out for 1 thing: YOUR MONEY.

 

Wouldn't it make sense to trade in the market that has the most losers because if one can exploit the reason that so many lose in a market woudn't that be an advantage?

 

I agree with you that the moves in TF are easier to manage but just because so many fail in ES does not mean that there is no way to trade the ES.

 

If the reason for the choppines in the ES are the bots I still wonder whether there is no way to beat them at their own game?

 

Maybe am naive.

 

The above is not to say that I will go back and trade the ES. Atleast not now.

 

But you are right. Probably my thoughts above are coming from the ego that wants to prove that i am smarter than the bots or all the other people who lose.

Instead, focusing on the markets that one feels comfortable with and is profitable in, is a much more productive idea.

 

Gabe

[subterfuge 10]

+$310

 

bit more like it, (even though for what seems like a regular event at the moment, I started my day off with 4 losers in a row!)

 

probably stopping for the day here, although my ES system has had 2 days of Breaking even, so I imagine he may be due a nice day. We'll see....

Here's his current live performance (along with todays blotter)

Edited November 25, 2009 by subterfuge

[bathrobe 10]

+$310

 

my ES system (along with todays blotter)

 

Is this autotrading or does it alert you to trades?

[subterfuge 10]

Is this autotrading or does it alert you to trades?

 

I dont a know a thing about programming etc and how to develop an 'autotrader' (which sounds cool!), but ive got it coded as an indicator which just gives me a red or green arrow.

I Only use it on the ES. Dont have that much live testing on it as you can see from the graph - its done OK for the last 3 months though...i use it alongside my more discressionary trading on oil and the currencies.

[bathrobe 10]

I dont a know a thing about programming etc and how to develop an 'autotrader' (which sounds cool!), but ive got it coded as an indicator which just gives me a red or green arrow.

 

I have built many systems using Ninja Trader, none of them are profitable so then I reversed the parameters and they still were not really profitable; they would make around $50/week before commissions so I am looking into much more complex program trading systems but I do not have the skills to program these types of programs and the people that do charge quite a lot, or at least the ones I have come across.

[bathrobe 10]

So today I entered at in one of my favorite setups in the es, I was trading the 10 year at the same time and entered some orders pretty quickly and again my computer froze. I completely lost it as I was in with heavy size in the es. I called my broker but before I could get through I had restarted and was in the black on the 10 year and part of my es had been taken out with a stop loss but my setup worked overall and I got out with a healthy profit.

 

I am trying to get better at trading the ZN and today I traded 3 contracts and I am very proud of that trade, I did not make much but I am learning the price action in that market.

 

This past weekend Dinerotrader and I met up to discuss trading and had a great conversation:)

 

Edited November 25, 2009 by bathrobe

[Dinerotrader 10]

Well, after a long night of considering my plan I decided the primary reason for my poor trading yesterday is that when simming, I would trade 3-4 types of entry setups. Once I started with the real money, my first thought was, "I need to just take more reliable entries and not overtrade". Of course, since I didn't have enough confidence in what my best setups were, it got hard to know when to pull the trigger. So, I am back to simming to build the confidence I need in whichever setup proves to be most profitable.

 

I caught 2 big moves today and along with a group of some other crap trades (which were on Oil so I netted to ~0). I was down $300 at one point which would have probably kept me from trading if it were real. The best setups occured after I was down. I did throw another contract on the ZS trade as it progressed so that really helped the P/L.

 

SIM results

 

[brownsfan019 17]

Wouldn't it make sense to trade in the market that has the most losers because if one can exploit the reason that so many lose in a market woudn't that be an advantage?

 

'Most losers' is relative Gabe. Someone is winning there and they are called bots/algos. If you can beat THEM then I would strongly suggest trading the ES. You are up against the brightest minds, biggest bankrolls and fastest computers. Good luck.

 

I agree with you that the moves in TF are easier to manage but just because so many fail in ES does not mean that there is no way to trade the ES.

 

If the reason for the choppines in the ES are the bots I still wonder whether there is no way to beat them at their own game?

 

Maybe am naive.

 

The above is not to say that I will go back and trade the ES. Atleast not now.

 

But you are right. Probably my thoughts above are coming from the ego that wants to prove that i am smarter than the bots or all the other people who lose.

Instead, focusing on the markets that one feels comfortable with and is profitable in, is a much more productive idea.

 

Gabe

 

Can you beat the ES as a retail trader? Sure, bathrobe does it. But the numbers suggest that it's much more difficult than other markets IMO.

 

As soon as you put your ego aside, you'll see what I mean.

[edabreu 10]

I used the 30m chart for a ct trade setup near 75.60's which I entered with 2c. I added 2 @ 75.77 and rode it up to 76.49 and 76.69 all in all out. I also added again at 76.26, and 75.97 and took those off at 76.44. I did take about $500 worth of heat on those trades, but the setup never stopped me out. I had a couple of other smaller CL trades for +15, +7 and one stop out for -13 on 2c. before the ct setup finally arrived.

 

The ES was a long 1104.50 with 1 off at 1108.50 and runner out stopped out at 1107.25. The YM trades were 10436 to 10431, and 10443 to 10451 and then of course it took off after I bailed...took a little heat on these too.

I had no TF trades - it was a jumble so I just ignored it.

[DugDug 10]

On reading these quotes I thought of another thing to add regards new traders merging from SIM trading to real life trading. (maybe not 100% what this thread is for maybe)

 

If you have problems due to the fact you are thinking in terms of dollars made lost, then think in terms of ticks or percentages. It helps take a lot of the emotion out of it.

example; if I told you I made 30 ticks here, lost 5 there, then it a lot different on the psyche than saying I made say $30,000 or lost $5,000, or $300, or $50.

 

Also regards the ES - futures are a zero sum game so for every 'loser' there is a 'winner'. If you are talking about numbers of people participating and being successful then put it terms of any other profession. For every person who can play a musical instrument, there are probably only a few who are very good, or good enough to make money from it.

Focus on your trading and what works for you - not wandering what everybody else is up to. (on saying that its still always good to keep learning new ideas)

[subterfuge 10]

+270

 

.............................

[subterfuge 10]

$280

 

flat day until my ES system eventually tiggered a trade for the first time in 3 days.

[bathrobe 10]

Nearly entered on the lod, the holiday kept me out however I noticed some nice volume.

[brownsfan019 17]

RE: HOLIDAY TRADING

 

Thought I'd offer a little perspective on the so-called 'holiday trading' and that the common theme is to avoid these days. I fall into this trap as much as anyone but as part of my trading plan, I always take screenshots of the day along with where my trades would have taken place. I also track a daily and then monthly p/l of where I would be if I could trade the setups perfectly. Here's what I noticed about the recent 'no trade' holidays:

 

Vet's day: +$400/ct

Day before Thanksgiving: +$220/ct

Day after Thanksgiving: +$600/ct

So there's my 'no-trade' days simply b/c I put it in my head that you don't trade at or near holidays. That cost me about $1200/ct in profits over those 3 days.

 

A few things to consider when tracking your trading:

1) First, track your trades - what you did AND what you

should

have done if you followed your system 100%. If you are automated or don't stray, then that doesn't apply to you.

2) Document and track days that you do trade and days that you don't.

3) See for yourself whether or not the 'holidays' are good or bad for your trading style.

I'm beginning to think more and more that if the markets I trade are open, I should be here ready to go. Seeing that I only trade till noon EST, it doesn't really affect things too much even if there is family stuff to do that day.

 

This also takes me back to my stock broker days - when I was a rook they would tell us stories and what not to motivate us. One that always stuck with me b/c it transfers directly into trading is this - A vet was telling us noob's at a training session that he saw the power of how much money can be made in this business when one day he had set out on a Saturday to paint his house. His wife needed the house painted and he finally decided to do it. While getting ready to paint the house and not looking forward to it, the lightbulb came on - why not just pay someone to do this? So, he packed up, went to the office and sold enough bonds over the phone that day to pay a painter. It took less than an hour. He 'painted the house' by just making the money to cover it in his comfortable office and in less than an hour.

 

That always stuck with me b/c I think it rings true here as well - I was one of those people out on Black Friday trying to catch a few deals. That's just me - no matter how much or how little money I've had in my life, I'm always making sure I spend it appropriately. So here I was - up at 6am on Friday on my day off (I wake up at 7am during the work week) and out the door to fight my way through crowds to save a few bucks. And while I did get what I wanted, I now think about it...

 

I could have traded on Friday and made $600/ct potentially. I'm trading multiples over a number of accounts so in order for me to have 'made' that via the savings I got from being out shopping, I would have had to buy a ton of stuff. And I mean a ton. Of course I did not.

 

I just have to chuckle here now thinking that I got up early on a day off to save a few bucks when I could have just done my normal routine and made a nice killing on Friday. I would have gladly paid a bit more or just done more internet shopping and get that day back to trade...

 

If you are treating your trading like a business, these are things you need to be tracking and learning from IMO. There's no way I would have known that these 3 recent days would have been good trading days unless I tracked them later.

 

With that said, never put trading ahead of what's really important in life. My example was comparing trading to saving some money shopping. If it was trading vs. being with family, there's nothing to discuss.

 

I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving as we have a lot to be thankful for. Here's to a great December and ending the year strong!

[subterfuge 10]

+347

 

nice day. 4 point runner on the ES helped today.

[Dinerotrader 10]

No P/L for me today. I realized that I need to develop more rules for my trading. I thought I could develop confidence based on just P/L from SIM but I realized that the my confidence needs to be based in the rules I follow for entry/exits. Once my confidence is based in those rules and my P/L shows I am consistant, then I think I could try trading real money again. My rules for when to enter are not well defined so I am trying to determine how detailed I need to make them.

 

I wanted to just watch price and enter accordingly but I think I need to define more precisely when to consider entering based on PA. There is some balance I need to strike between setups that anyone could trade and setups only I can trade because of reading PA. Does that make sense? Anyone can see a breakout set up on a chart but not everyone can read how price is reacting to that area.

 

I tend to get large runners so having more loser trades than winners works out for the P/L but it makes it hard to keep confidence after multiple losers even though a large winner is just around the corner. I guess I have to end up with a win/loss ratio that doesn't wipe out my confidence before I get to a winner.

[bathrobe 10]

Traded more today than I usually do in a week, just on smaller size. I may start to trade the 10year and Oil also, on smaller size. We will see.

 

[Dinerotrader 10]

Here is a SIM trade I took this morning on Oil. There was some R at the top level back on the 23rd when Oil was there last. Stop was only 3 ticks back. I ended up getting 15 ticks on this, stop got a little too tight, otherwise I'd still be in it. Hopefully, you can see my entry and exit triangles on the 1st pic.

 

This is the type of trade I am having a hard time building rules around. It worked but I bet against the trend on a reversal because of the R and the 5 bars that got stuck in that area. Maybe this isn't a trade a should have taken because of the trend but maybe my risk was low enough that it was okay to take. How would you form some rules around this?

 

 

 

[brownsfan019 17]

12-1-09: -$180.00

 

Blah day, not much happening on my end there.

[brownsfan019 17]

Here is a SIM trade I took this morning on Oil. There was some R at the top level back on the 23rd when Oil was there last. Stop was only 3 ticks back. I ended up getting 15 ticks on this, stop got a little too tight, otherwise I'd still be in it. Hopefully, you can see my entry and exit triangles on the 1st pic.

 

This is the type of trade I am having a hard time building rules around. It worked but I bet against the trend on a reversal because of the R and the 5 bars that got stuck in that area. Maybe this isn't a trade a should have taken because of the trend but maybe my risk was low enough that it was okay to take. How would you form some rules around this?

 

Dinero - I think it's a bit easier than you are thinking... Here's how I see what you did:

 

1) Define S/R levels. Obviously this is key for this to work consistently.

 

2) From there, look for trades - and I would suggest that you could have gone long OR short there. Why? If it's an active level that you are anticipating, it could also become a breakout area as well.

 

3) What chart setting is your daytrade chart set to? I'm asking b/c as you pointed out, price got to your level and then had no interest of breaking it. But I'm wondering what chart setting that is.

I think defining some rules around this could be something as define S/R then look to see what price does there - does it bust through like that level was not even there? If yes, consider just jumping on that train and go with it. If no, then consider a reversal trade as you illustrated here on today's charts.