Trader P/L 2009

[edabreu 10]

My standard ouch day comes about once every month and a half......market caught me off guard and out of sync...

[brownsfan019 17]

11/19/09 +447.48

 

I missed the big oil move of the day which I had fully anticipated but I was on the road while it happened. Is there a way to make OEC generate a commissions expense so you have a net number at the end of the day. I am still overtrading so I need to get better at waiting for the moves. A big reduction in my P/L might help me with that.

 

 

Dinero - the GCLF0 contract has more volume so make sure you roll to the new contract soon. Get in this habit now b/c the last thing you want is a big surprise when it's real money on the line.

[brownsfan019 17]

11-20-09: $0.00

 

Some days you wonder why you got out of bed for this. Keeping losses small / scratch is an important part of the overall game planning for me, so while seems like a waste in hindsight it's part of the job and to be expected. My goal on winning days is to make $500-$1000/ct and losing days I would like to keep below $250. In my eyes, this was a losing day simply b/c it wasn't a winning one.

 

What stung the worst was oil - I went 1/4 there. I know when I go 1/4 that I'll be trying to scratch that market, which is what happened there. The good news is that 1 winner can wipe out 3 losers. The bad news is that I had 3 losers so I did not make any money there today. And the ZS today just didn't want to give it to me. Nothing to change there.

 

Have a good weekend everyone. OSU vs. Michigan on Sat although shouldn't be much of a game.

[subterfuge 10]

Started off really bad with 4 losing trades! I thought it was gonna be a brutal day for me but it turned round enough to get me green. Here's the trade numbers in pips:

 

-8, -12, -16, -13 , 19, -12, 28, 18, -14, 20, 12, -15, -15, 20, 6, 22

[Dinerotrader 10]

I only had 30 minutes to trade and luckily some reasonable opportunities presented themself. Thanks for the tip on the oil contract BF.

 

[Tonkadad 10]

NYMEX*MINY*Light*Sweet*Crude*Oil

 

The symbol is QM for IB is this the same contract you guys are talking about except it is the mini? Can someone post a chart please.

 

thanks,

 

Bruce

[diablo272 10]

QM is the mini, CL is the full size.

 

QM is much less liquid, and the tick size is $12.5 vs $10 for CL.

[brownsfan019 17]

NYMEX*MINY*Light*Sweet*Crude*Oil

 

The symbol is QM for IB is this the same contract you guys are talking about except it is the mini? Can someone post a chart please.

 

thanks,

 

Bruce

 

diablo answered your question and I've posted CL charts in this thread and around TL.

[brownsfan019 17]

11-23-09: +$620.00

 

I took every trade the system triggered, so that's good. I wanted to get long the Russell right off the open but didn't quite get the entry signal I wanted. In hindsight it would have delivered, but it would have violated the setup.

 

Also attached is a 1 min GCL chart from today for the person requesting that.

Edited November 24, 2009 by brownsfan019

[Tonkadad 10]

Thank you for your responses.

[Gabe2004 10]

11-13-09: +$620.00

 

I took every trade the system triggered, so that's good. I wanted to get long the Russell right off the open but didn't quite get the entry signal I wanted. In hindsight it would have delivered, but it would have violated the setup.

 

Also attached is a 1 min GCL chart from today for the person requesting that.

 

I guess 11-13-09 should be 11-23-09.

 

Is RLM-M the same as TF?

 

Thanks

 

Gabe

[subterfuge 10]

(-$256)

 

nice trading Brownsfan!

[Dinerotrader 10]

Today was going to turn out well and then the computer froze up while I was in a ZS trade and it went downhill from there. My 1st trade on Oil this morning got me in a great move up and I was up $250 or so.

 

After the computer rebooted, I got out at a loss on the ZS and decided to just scrap the day and spent the rest of the day taking lots of trades on really short term signals. I am planning on taking my first live futures trade tomorrow (if I can find a good setup) so I can get a feel for what my commissions should be and get started playing with real money. I have been simming for a while now and it is time to get some skin in the game. I am pretty excited to finally take some real trades.

 

I guess that will make a journey of about 6 months from knowing nothing about futures to finally trying a live trade. Stocks were fun but so far I enjoy futures much more.

 

I was thinking and my "back of the napkin" calculation shows I have spent around 1,100 hours so far studying and SIM trading so far so I still have a long ways to go if hours count for anything.

Edited November 23, 2009 by Dinerotrader

[edabreu 10]

Glad I got it done before the zombie market set in...

[brownsfan019 17]

I guess 11-13-09 should be 11-23-09.

 

Is RLM-M the same as TF?

 

Thanks

 

Gabe

 

Date changed, thanks.

 

RLM = Russell.

[brownsfan019 17]

Today was going to turn out well and then the computer froze up while I was in a ZS trade and it went downhill from there. My 1st trade on Oil this morning got me in a great move up and I was up $250 or so.

 

After the computer rebooted, I got out at a loss on the ZS and decided to just scrap the day and spent the rest of the day taking lots of trades on really short term signals. I am planning on taking my first live futures trade tomorrow (if I can find a good setup) so I can get a feel for what my commissions should be and get started playing with real money. I have been simming for a while now and it is time to get some skin in the game. I am pretty excited to finally take some real trades.

 

I guess that will make a journey of about 6 months from knowing nothing about futures to finally trying a live trade. Stocks were fun but so far I enjoy futures much more.

 

I was thinking and my "back of the napkin" calculation shows I have spent around 1,100 hours so far studying and SIM trading so far so I still have a long ways to go if hours count for anything.

 

Dinero - good luck tomorrow and just try to keep the emotions in check. I know it's easier said than done, but just go w/ the flow of what you've been doing. Try not to overtrade as that's a great way to make OEC rich, but not you.

 

You gotta start somewhere, so get to it on Tuesday. Remember this is a short week so I would trade Tue and maybe Wed and that's it for the week.

[brownsfan019 17]

11-24-09: +$450.00

 

Couldn't quite get in sync w/ the ZS this morning but was able to salvage a small loss there. Nice easy short on CL. Not sure that I will trade on Wed, so this might be it for me this week. Good 2 days in a row too bad this is a short week.

[bathrobe 10]

I noticed a great setup in the 10 year but did not take it, this was an ES short in the late morning.

[Dinerotrader 10]

Well for my first day with real money, it was a crappy day. Many lessons learned. I want to say that I picked a bad day to start but trading is full of days where you don't get the setups you want so you just have to sit on your hands. I should have been a little smarter and waited until we got out of the choppy areas before taking some trades. I shouldn't have traded the ES at all but I thought I should at least get a few trades in on it so I could tell how it traded live.

 

A little disheartening but I know losses occur and I know I traded in many spots where the danger level was too high. At least now I can start writing a draft of my market wizard chapter where I talk about my first loss in futures before I became the greatest trader of all time.

 

[brownsfan019 17]

Well for my first day with real money, it was a crappy day. Many lessons learned. I want to say that I picked a bad day to start but trading is full of days where you don't get the setups you want so you just have to sit on your hands. I should have been a little smarter and waited until we got out of the choppy areas before taking some trades. I shouldn't have traded the ES at all but I thought I should at least get a few trades in on it so I could tell how it traded live.

 

A little disheartening but I know losses occur and I know I traded in many spots where the danger level was too high. At least now I can start writing a draft of my market wizard chapter where I talk about my first loss in futures before I became the greatest trader of all time.

 

 

 

Dinero - I know it's not the day you were looking for, but DO NOT TOUCH THE ES!!! I'm shocked that you didn't touch it at all in your sim and then you go live and decide to try it with real money? That market is so 'botted' to death that it's not for the new trader, nor one that hasn't touched it before. Please turn that chart off. Use the RLM if you want an index.

[Gabe2004 10]

Dinero - I know it's not the day you were looking for, but DO NOT TOUCH THE ES!!! I'm shocked that you didn't touch it at all in your sim and then you go live and decide to try it with real money? That market is so 'botted' to death that it's not for the new trader, nor one that hasn't touched it before. Please turn that chart off. Use the RLM if you want an index.

 

I was trading live the SPY as a proxy for ES and I lost money.

Switched to IWM which is the ETF equivalent to the SF (RLM).

THere is somewhat of an improvement.

 

Gabe

[Dinerotrader 10]

Dinero - I know it's not the day you were looking for, but DO NOT TOUCH THE ES!!! I'm shocked that you didn't touch it at all in your sim and then you go live and decide to try it with real money? That market is so 'botted' to death that it's not for the new trader, nor one that hasn't touched it before. Please turn that chart off. Use the RLM if you want an index.

 

I tried it in SIM a few times but stopped because the fills weren't realistic at all. You are correct of course. I haven't yet developed any good approach to trade the ES yet so I shouldn't have tried it. I looked back at my charts zoomed at a little and I was just way to focused on the tiny moves. The CL short was such an obvious breakout. I got into some of it because of the momentum but I didn't have my eye on that level, which is unbelieveable since I watch those levels constantly. Plus, the CL went right down to the bottom of the channel I noted on the Oil thread and bounced right off that support area.

 

[brownsfan019 17]

I was trading live the SPY as a proxy for ES and I lost money.

Switched to IWM which is the ETF equivalent to the SF (RLM).

THere is somewhat of an improvement.

 

Gabe

 

It's simple really - the ES has the most volume, which tells us that the biggest traders with the biggest, fastest computers and the biggest bankrolls are playing there. And it's not even humans you are up against, it's massive computer algo's that can make a decision quicker than we can blink. It's also why you'll see the ES creep up 1 tick, then down 2 ticks, then up 3, then down 1... those guys are trading such huge size they can make a killing just pushing it up a tick here and there; meanwhile retail guys get shaken out easily.

 

The Russell on the other hand does not have that same participation? How do I know? Look at the volume. Even though the bots may exist there, they cannot play the same huge volume push games that are played on the ES. Other bots and/or retail guys would crush them for doing that. When the Russell decides to move, it moves. IMO it's a more level playing field.

 

As I said in thales' thread, trading is hard enough as it is, the last thing you want to do is to create even more hurdles to jump - whether that be trading forex where quotes can vary or the ES where the bots will churn you up slowly but surely.

 

The Russell reminds me of oil and soybeans - plenty of volume to daytrade, minimal bot activity and tremendous swings. My current Russell profit target is 3 pts = $300. $300 on the ES is asking for 6 ES points. Good luck getting into an ES trade that swiftly moves 6 points w/o chopping you up or grabbing your stop; however the Russell can and does move +3 pts at times like nothing.

 

The ES is great if you are going to trade huge size and go for smaller ticks IMO. Bathrobe is one of the few retail guys that I've seen do it.

 

Dropping the ES from my trading was one of the single best things I ever did to increase profitability and lower stress levels.

[Dinerotrader 10]

Dropping the ES from my trading was one of the single best things I ever did to increase profitability and lower stress levels.

 

Why is it so common for daytraders to trade the ES since most of them aren't trading it with large size (the major reason for trading it) that I am aware of. My guess is that the required margin is so small. We need some kind of poll here on TL so we can see of all the active traders, what futures they are trading. It sometimes feels like we are the only ones watching/trading oil and soybeans but I would think others must be also.

[brownsfan019 17]

Why is it so common for daytraders to trade the ES since most of them aren't trading it with large size (the major reason for trading it) that I am aware of. My guess is that the required margin is so small.

 

I'm sure $500 (or less) margins attract many of the $5k pikers that last a week and are gone. And if the majority of retail guys are trading this and the majority of retail traders lose... hmmmm..... :hmmmm:

 

We need some kind of poll here on TL so we can see of all the active traders, what futures they are trading. It sometimes feels like we are the only ones watching/trading oil and soybeans but I would think others must be also.

 

Honestly Dinero, I could care less what others are on this forum watch or trade as there's no way to distinguish those that trade for a living and those that trade for a hobby. If you aren't doing this for a living, your opinion is coming from a very different point of view than mine. This is not a hobby for me as it is for many.

 

If we know that the herd mentality is typically wrong, then I want most retail guys trading the ES and grinding out a tick here and there. If we know that most retail traders lose and fade out and most want to master the ES (but never do) then I want nothing to do with those odds. If we know that the big boys and their algos are all over the ES and they are much better at this than me, I want nothing to do with that.

 

Here's where a poker analogy can work - when you pick your poker game, you can pick what opponents to play. There's the big games @ Bobby's room in Vegas or there's 1 penny / 2 penny online and everything in between. If you can easily beat $1/$2 but get crushed at $100/$200, do you keep playing $100/$200? I say no. I say beat what is easier and take the profits. That's me. Some would say keep playing the $100/$200 b/c you might eventually beat it if you can survive long enough. Same with the ES - you might eventually beat it but many will fade out before that time ever comes.

 

In the end, you get to choose your opponent in trading. I choose to go where it's the easiest (read: not easy) for me to make money. I choose to go where my setups routinely work and yield net positive results over time in the easiest way possible. And right now, that means trading oil, the Russell and soybeans. If one of those die out, then I will look for a replacement or just trade the 2 that are working. This is also why I think it's smart to watch multiple markets and trade your highest probability setups vs. staring at 1 market waiting to trade. Can you imagine staring at the ES chart all day? No thank you.

 

Choose your trading opponents carefully as they are out for 1 thing: YOUR MONEY.