Trader P/L 2009

[Grey1 10]

I stopped using indicators about 3 weeks ago, I like the idea of just using price action.

 

Bruce

Market goes through cycle ( foundation of TA ) and an adaptive indicator ( not an static one ) can be extremely useful ,, in fact the heart of automation and program trading is the use of indicators very close to the price action using noise reduction analysis ,,

There are many advantages in using adaptive indicators

 

1) noise elimination ( only a very trained eye can see the difference between a trend and the noise)

2) Analytical models are easier to construct..

3) Risk can be defined in terms of dynamic settings of the indicator Hence better RIsk management

 

Disadvantages

 

1) most trader use indicators with the same settings every time under all market conditions at all times.. This is dangerous and misleading and most traders spend majority of their fund and trading life to realise that their indicator is not working not knowing why it does not work .

 

2) Trend following indicators such as MACD , SMA or EMA ( not noise controlled MA's) are laggers ( the correct use of these indicators need an emotionless human to let the profit run after realising many losses )

 

3) oscillator based indicators ( RSI ,CCI) don't lead the market but they can be a window or an INDICATION to future price projection ..These tools are often used in correctly for Anti Trend trading ,, ( very dangerous game to play ) ,,,

 

Price action Advantages

 

1) A trained eye is all what is needed

2) Most of advanced TA theories such as exhaustion theories only use Price action

 

Price action Disadvantages

 

Difficult to Model for automation ( Best tool would be Genetic Neural pattern recognition technology )

 

 

IMHO no matter what strategy or tools you use for intra day trading the RISKS are extremely high and majority of successful traders use a combination of FA and TA ( avoiding high frequency scalping ) on a longer time frame using RISK ANALYSIS AS THE CORE ENGINE of their analysis .. IMHO a trader with little understanding of risk analysis will eventually get wiped . Only those who understand the RISK survive the market..

Grey1

[brownsfan019 17]

ANYONE TRADING OIL - INVENTORY IS AT 11AM EST TODAY

 

Heads up in case you didn't notice the day and time change due to Vet's day.

[JKLM 10]

I trade oil..

today possible turn point, after inventory ...

will see

[brownsfan019 17]

11-12-09: +$547.50

 

Better day. What a fun spike that ZS was! Hope dinero was able to catch that with me.

 

 

[eric341 10]

Just started trading the DAX with CFDs (like futures but much less leveraged- 1 point in the DAX is worth 1 euro).

 

Bought near the low of the day and got out after about 40 points. Sold a bit too early, as you can see on this chart here:

 

 

 

 

 

 

happy trading

[Dinerotrader 10]

11-12-09: +$547.50

 

Better day. What a fun spike that ZS was! Hope dinero was able to catch that with me.

 

 

 

That is funny you say that. I was really busy at work today so I knew I wouldn't be able to focus enough to trade what I wanted but I had a free moment at 10 minutes after the ZS opened to take a peak at the action. I went long just before that move and caught all of it. I felt pretty good and took a bunch more trades and threw away all the gains but that is what I do on my "no time for trading" days. I just practice watching price action and try to read each move where ever price may be. I don't post P/L on those days because I am not really trading to make any money. Glad to hear you got that move. I would like to think I might have caught it on a normal trading day and then quit trading the ZS. When I miss a good move now on the ZS I think, "SOB, I bet browns caught that one".

 

Here is why I caught the move from my quick analysis once I got on the ZS.

The downside price search finished somewhat quickly (square), there was a good candle formation I circled (down price rejection) and then candle printing really started speeding up just before and during the move (I used ticks). If I remember correctly, it was the speed up that caused me to get long just above the short term resistance at the blue line.

 

[thalestrader 14]

Here is why I caught the move from my quick analysis once I got on the ZS. The downside price search finished somewhat quickly (square), there was a good candle formation I circled (down price rejection) and then candle printing really started speeding up just before and during the move (I used ticks). If I remember correctly, it was the speed up that caused me to get long just above the short term resistance at the blue line.

 

Well, look at you! I'm not a "candle" kind of guy (not that there is anything wrong with being a "candle" trader), but everything else sounded like poetry. You've come a long way over the last six months or so.

 

I bet browns caught that one

 

Until the Browns post a winning record, he's Brownie to me.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!

[brownsfan019 17]

 

Until the Browns post a winning record, he's Brownie to me.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

[Dinerotrader 10]

Well, look at you! I'm not a "candle" kind of guy (not that there is anything wrong with being a "candle" trader), but everything else sounded like poetry. You've come a long way over the last six months or so.

 

Thales

 

I appreciate the encouraging words Thales. You've certainly done a great deal of mentoring for which I am grateful.

 

I wouldn't call myself a candle trader but the principle behind candles I find to be very useful especially on certain futures. I was frustrated with candles for a while because you can get different candles depending on your chart setting (ticks, minutes, etc.). Then I realized (after considering many of brownsfan's posts) that I don't really need one or 2 candles to make some certain pattern from a book. All I need is to be able to spot when price is tested in one direction and is quickly meet with lots of buying/selling. Once I realized this, I no longer had to worry about what chart I was using. I can spot that type of price movement over the course of 10 candles or 1 candle, doesn't matter. That was an epiphany for me.

 

Overall though, I wouldn't call myself any type of trader yet. After reading a lot of the market wizard series, I realized that I really need to try on many different trading styles in order to find what best fits my personal skill set and emotional capabilities. There are many ways to trade successfully but there is one ideal way for any given person to trade. If a person tries to trade in a way that is incompatible with themself, it is going to be a long hard road. I am currently in the dressing room trying many trading styles out trying to see what works and what makes my butt look big if you catch my drift.

 

Quick Question: Has anyone tried to mix any fundamental analysis with their trading style and to what degree?

For example, there are times I trade oil and find out there was some "fundamental" knowledge that might have helped me in determining if I should be looking for a breakout or reversal at S/R. It might just complicate things if you simply fill your head with large amounts of "fundamental" information but maybe if you could hone in on some specific set of facts going on in a market (i.e. just keeping up with oil inventory numbers), maybe that could help you.:shrug:

[DugDug 10]

Quick Question: Has anyone tried to mix any fundamental analysis with their trading style and to what degree?

 

If you watch bloomberg TV - one day they are bullish for some fundamental reason, the next day they are bearish for the same reasons.-

So the answer from me is NO - just watch the price action.

I sometimes look at a price chart and make a trading plan without knowing what the instrument is. When you find out what it is its interesting then how often the brain wants to then interpret some rational reasoning for why it then will go up or down.

Its handy to know a broad based macro view sometimes, and to know when announcements are being made, just to keep out of trouble - but otherwise its all price action.

(i am probably longer term than many other traders here)

[Dinerotrader 10]

Quick Question: Has anyone tried to mix any fundamental analysis with their trading style and to what degree?

 

If you watch bloomberg TV - one day they are bullish for some fundamental reason, the next day they are bearish for the same reasons.-

So the answer from me is NO - just watch the price action.

I sometimes look at a price chart and make a trading plan without knowing what the instrument is. When you find out what it is its interesting then how often the brain wants to then interpret some rational reasoning for why it then will go up or down.

Its handy to know a broad based macro view sometimes, and to know when announcements are being made, just to keep out of trouble - but otherwise its all price action.

(i am probably longer term than many other traders here)

 

I would never use bloomberg TV or commentary like that for fundamental considerations but I appreciate your points. Many of the Market wizards mix fundamental ideas with their technical analysis so I figure there is a good way to mix them however, I am sure it isn't easy.

Edited November 13, 2009 by Dinerotrader

[thalestrader 14]

Many of the Market wizards mix fundamental ideas with their technical analysis so I figure there is a good way to mix them however, I am sure it isn't easy.

 

I would add that if you only are day trading, it isn't necessary.

 

William O'Neil's CANSLIM method, outlined in his book, How to Make Money in Stocks, is exactly what you are asking - using a combination of fundamental and technical information to screen for long stock candidates.

 

William O'Neil's CANSLIM is a formalization and expansion of Nicolas Darvas's Technofundamentalist method that he demonstrated in How I made 2,000,000 in the Stock Market.

 

Though I am a big fan of both of those gentlemen, I pay no attention to fundamentals at all. If it is going up, I'll buy it. If it goes down, I sell it. Not so different from being a Will Rogers technician - "Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it 'till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it." You see, you can buy stock in a fundamentally soundcompany. If no one else is buying it, it will not go up. So, I wait for technical indications that buyers are buying and price is going up. Why hold stock in a fundamentally sound company whose stock price is going to be the same next year asit is this year (without a nice intervening rally into which to sell in the mean time)?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Dinerotrader 10]

I caught today's first move again. That is fun managing a trade like that where you know you are in the money the whole time. I trailed my stop too tight which cost me a good portion but I got a little nervous when we pasted the top of the last upswing thinking we might be due for a reversal. Hope you caught that one too Brownsfan.

 

GCL was fun this morning. A lot of range bound trading.

 

 

Edited November 13, 2009 by Dinerotrader

[brownsfan019 17]

 

Quick Question: Has anyone tried to mix any fundamental analysis with their trading style and to what degree?

 

At this point dinero, I wouldn't touch the fundie side. Trying to get the fundies to say exactly what your 1 min chart for daytrading is saying is not easy. Fundies are big picture items and you are trading for ticks here and there.

 

When you mention the market wizards, if memory serves, quite a few were swing traders or took swing trading positions. If that's the case, then I would definitely consider the fundies on those trades. But for trading for ticks here and there, don't waste your time.

[brownsfan019 17]

11-13-09: -$182.50

 

What can go wrong, will go wrong when your mind might not be in the game... I'm pissed about this stupid car insurance situation here and not sure if I was 100% in it today.

 

I was in the ZS with you Dinero but took it out for a breakeven after my first trade was a loser. Very poor exit on my part.

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Here is the weekly PnL for Thales & Daughter's little forex account.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[bathrobe 10]

For the remaining 1 and 1/2 months of the year I am going to trade light size compared to what I normally trade (I do not want a loss to take away from a great year). Please don't misunderstand me, I have full confidence in my method and setups and if my bread and butter setup happens in the S&P I will go in with very large size but I am only doing this with one of my setups.

 

I already have my New Years resolution: trade minimum of 200 days, this year my trading was sporadic at best. I am also going to trade options and some equity-but I will not let these take away from my main trading vehicle: Index futures, primarily es.

 

I hope this helps some of you who read this thread understand how important it is to protect your capital. I have heard that without it you can not trade.

 

Chris

[bathrobe 10]

Hi Folks,

 

Daughter's little forex account.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Not so little anymore considering where it started. Congratulations to you for being a great teacher and your daughter for being a great trader/future 18 year old hedge fund manager and student.

[thalestrader 14]

I hope this helps some of you who read this thread understand how important it is to protect your capital. I have heard that without it you can not trade.

 

Unless, of course, you are a failed "too big to fail" financial institution.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MightyMouse 12]

Hi Folks,

 

Here is the weekly PnL for Thales & Daughter's little forex account.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Wow, She is doing great! She's showing up a lot of the old folks on this thread. Bravo!

[subterfuge 10]

+195

 

Proably done for the day although will be tempted to trade the ES at the open, since my ES system lost on Friday and so its likely due a good day!

[subterfuge 10]

Caught some of that move. Amazing how the ES just goes up and up, lol.

Definitely done for the day now

[brownsfan019 17]

11-16-09: +$1007.50

 

Great way to start the week. What can I say, everything worked.

 

Gotta love this oil chart:

 

 

 

I did use the value chart to help time my exits better and after 1 day of testing, so far so good.

Edited November 17, 2009 by brownsfan019

[Dinerotrader 10]

Record day for me on my futures trading. +$723

And that is even with a choppy day on the ZS. All currency trades were from last night.

 

Edited November 16, 2009 by Dinerotrader

[brownsfan019 17]

Here is how to load up the Value Chart in Open ECry for anyone interested.