Trader P/L 2009

[MightyMouse 12]

MM,

 

I hope you haven't felt that I was attacking you personally in any of my posts responding to you and your views.

 

Certainly "short squeezes" are real. But no one is ever backed into a corner by anyone other than him or herself.

 

In my opinion, you have personalized or individualized market behavior when market behavior is not individuals, certainly not about you or me. It is about the great mass of market participants. I did not trade today. My absence had no effect on the open,high, low, or close of any of the markets I trade. You and I and indeed every trader who posts regularly at TL could simultaneously quit the markets tomorrow and never trade again without any measurable impact upon the market's behavior tomorrow.

 

The market is simply the herd of people. A herd will at times stand around grazing, wandering aimlessly across the plain. Then, a change is perceived, perhaps a threat, or perhaps the promise of greener pastures. At first the change is noticed by only a few at the periphery. Those few commence a movement that often simply results in a shuffling of the herd, but at other times causes a mass movement in the form of a stampede. None of the individuals is in control of the movement of the whole, but each is instead swept along with the herd. The stampede approaches an obstacle. The herd may suddenly reverse direction and continue to stampede, or they may instead simply settle down to resume teir grazing and perhaps to take a drink. This grazing drift will continue until the next change is perceived about the periphery that ultimately drives the behavior of the herd to again stampede.

 

Most traders are members of the herd. Most are controlled by the actions of the herd and do not realize this to be so. They are confused. They do not understand what is happening, (or being humans and under control of their "egos" rather than being masters of their emotions) they demand to know why it is happening.

 

I try not to be a member of the herd. I stand watch at the periphery, waiting for signs of those changes that cause the mass to stampede. I then position myself to ride that stampede until it reaches the next obstacle that will either halt the stampede or reverse it. At no time during the course of my ride have I been responsible for injuring any of the other members of the herd. Any injuries that have been suffered are due to their own inability to understand what is happening around them.

 

I do not "simply choose not to call these events predatory." In my opinion, these activities simply are not predatory. I simply sit at my desk and watch for signs that the herd is getting ready to move. I move with them, but always aware that their movement is finite and subject to reversal. I am never threatened. I never threaten anyone.

 

You liken trading to a war, and I think that that is something that sounds good on websites or in trading books or TAS&C articles or ET forum debates, but it is not a description of what trading is.

 

Ed Seykota, in his Market Wizards interview compares the movement of markets to watching waves in the ocean. Successful trading has much more in common with the dedicatated surfer, patiently treading water while prone on his board waiting for the right wave to come and provide him a satisfying ride that any war analogy that you may devise.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thales,

 

Wherever there is a herd of anything there are predators. Predation seems to have a negative connotation, but it is quite natural. In fact, we are all predators. Think about it. When you have a hamburger, a cow was slaughtered. Did that cow wander onto your hamburger or was it grazing somewhere and lured to an area to be massacred so that it could be sold at a grocery store? Do you eat only fish? Again, the fish did not wander onto your plate. It was lured into a net or onto a hook first. I am sure that no one wants to think of themselves as a predator, and most probably don’t actually engage in the act, but if you are paying someone to do it, you are guilty by association and predation is a part of your life. I guess one can feign innocence and say “gosh I didn’t know that a cow was going to be killed.”

 

When the market moves as a whole as you described, it is at the same time moving in a million different directions at the same time it is moving as a whole. Is this true? Yes. It explains why neither you nor I have been long since 670 in ES. It also explains why neither you nor I shorted oil in the 140’s for a $100 gain. It explains a lot of things. Right now the market is trending in a direction, correct? Are you in it? The million directions that the market takes are traders being lured away from the trend by predators on a hook, in a net, or with oxygen being blasted into their brain. I am not suggesting in any way that predators determine or set the trend; they do not set the trend unless they accidentally begin the stampede. They only care to take advantage of the weak.

 

Have you ever taken a position, say short, that was in the right direction and you got stopped out and it continued in the right direction? You can reason that your timing was off or whatever, but it was traders quicker than you, perceiving the fact that weak traders may have entered the market and these traders enter in the opposite direction to you and begin to probe for demand (buy stops) They get long and need buyers to sell their positions to, so they buy and offer out higher at the same time. If they find the buy stops it may continue to where your stop is if it is in the way. I am not implying that the predators know where your stop is or that they care. If your stop is to close to where they begin their predation, you can get hit. If it is not, then you will survive. Most people pick obvious places to put stops. S/R, trend lines, etc. and everyone knows where they are. This is a deliberate action to take weak traders out of their positions. Are they always successful? Does a lion always catch a gazelle? When they probe for buy stops and find that there aren’t enough, the reverse quickly and take a loss or probe for sell stops to tale their short positions from them at a gain if they identify that in their probe upward, other buyers may have entered and their sell stops must be nearby.

 

I can give dozens of other examples, but I don’t think it’s necessary and I am certainly not trying to change your mind. This is what I categorically consider predation in the markets we trade. It happens every day if not every minute. They do not control the market by any means. They only pray on weak longs or shorts.

 

And, a good surfer always checks the waters for sharks first.

 

MM

[thalestrader 14]

Wherever there is a herd of anything there are predators.... And, a good surfer always checks the waters for sharks first.

 

This is what is called "stretching the analogy" and it does not add to the meaning of the analogy.

 

 

It also explains why neither you nor I shorted oil in the 140’s for a $100 gain.

 

Would you believe a $90+ gain?

 

Have you ever taken a position, say short, that was in the right direction and you got stopped out and it continued in the right direction?

 

This used to happen to me a lot, but rarely does it happen any more. But then again, I used to think a lot more like you than I do now.

 

I can give dozens of other examples, but I don’t think it’s necessary and I am certainly not trying to change your mind. This is what I categorically consider predation in the markets we trade. It happens every day if not every minute. They do not control the market by any means. They only prey on weak longs or shorts.

 

And I am not trying to change your mind. But your view places undue emphasis on what "they" are doing and too little emphasis on you trying to understand what is happening.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Hey TT, that wasn't a system trading board was it?

 

Yes, it was, a very faithful one at that.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[ekshay 10]

For me, the market is more of a videogame. If you don't like the graphics, just switch to Heiken Ashi. Then, there will be no herds or predators ... just smooth up-and-down movements waiting for you to profit from. [Trading in direction of higher timeframe Heiken Ashi recommended.]

 

BTW, if one does have an animalistic personality, and would prefer to view markets as predatory, thats fine. You can still win. JOIN THE PREDATORS, and stop being the herd. If my memory serves me right, thats exactly what Volume Spread Analysis is all about.

 

-----

 

About the original topic of "should one trade multiple markets intraday or not?" ... well, there are 2 ways to reach there.

 

You may master a specific setup on 1 market, and expand to more markets later. OR...

You can master a specific setup on several markets on a slower timeframe, and then speed up as you get more comfortable.

 

It is not recommended to most newbie traders, because they are greedy for Setups. They just can't see the markets move without thinking of losing or profiting from it. If their setup didn't get them an entry, it messes their minds. They go looking for a better setup that WOULD have gotten them in. Multiple markets would only frustrate such a person even more.

 

-----

 

"Why do top traders only make 20% per annum, and small traders claim a consistent 30-300% each month? Are they liars?"

 

No. They are not lying. They would do no better if they had a billion dollar account to manage. Or even several millions.

You see, big accounts don't get the same leverage. They can't move in-and-out of positions quickly, too many partial fills for their lot-sizes.

And if they run a regulated fund ... its silly ... but they are legally not allowed to just get out of positions & take a break. They HAVE to have position in the market, even if they don't have it in their trading system.

On and on.

 

Most successful retail traders would rather keep a $20-100k account, and withdraw all their profits each month, whether that was 5% or 150%.

[Ofcourse ... Periodicity may not be monthly. Withdrawal may not be ALL their profits. That is trader's personal discretion.]

Edited October 6, 2009 by ekshay

[MightyMouse 12]

This is what is called "stretching the analogy" and it does not add to the meaning of the analogy.

 

 

 

 

Would you believe a $90+ gain?

 

 

 

This used to happen to me a lot, but rarely does it happen any more. But then again, I used to think a lot more like you than I do now.

 

 

 

And I am not trying to change your mind. But your view places undue emphasis on what "they" are doing and too little emphasis on you trying to understand what is happening.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thales

 

Stretching? If it looks like a duck, call it a duck.

 

You made $90? I have no good reason to say you didn't.

 

 

I have every reason to believe that you still get stopped out of long or short positions because as long as you are trading live, it doesn't matter what way you think or what size stop you take, you are not immune to losses. You can call it anything you want, but when you are stopped out, you are being taken advantage.

 

The "predation" works in other ways. The market will present you will all the right information to take a position in the wrong direction. The only thing that makes sense is to get into the market in the wrong direction. When the market has captured enough of you taking positions in the wrong direction, it will quickly take your money from your pocket in the same way that a pimp shakes down one of his girls. Large traders who want to get in long routinely sell thousands of contracts to lure the market lower so they can go long at lower prices. This process makes the market look weak to those on the periphery.

 

You can suggest that the above doesn’t happen to you anymore either if you like, but it happens to all of us. Think about a recent trade you took short in ES in September. I happened to be long for the very reason you were short. I was sure it was a bear trap and it was. I am not suggesting that I am smarter than you or that I am always on the right side of a trade or that I am always on the opposite side of your losing trades. That is far from the truth. Excuses aside, you were lured into thinking that the 1023 area was a good place to short. Once again, it happens to all of us. No one is immune. You were a victim of predation.

 

If you are a small fish in the pond, you had better understand what “they” are doing.

 

Thales, sorry, but, you stating that you used to think my way is downright condescending.

 

 

MM

[hunnybunny 10]

Mighty Mouse, Mighty Mouse,

 

You sad sad jaundiced toxic soul. Better a silly rabbit than a rodent with delusions of grandeur and a belligerent tone. Please stop baiting others. You are still not posting anything germane. Why not post your trades, so we can learn from them? As you kindly pointed out, this is a thread about Trader P/L. Thanks to ThalesTrader, Brownsfan and other friendly constructive contributors to this thread, from whom i am learning.

 

My contribution for the day: long eur/ogbp at 9216. Is there a trend to ride or do i take profit? Somebody help.

 

P/S. i am new to all this, i'm afraid. Would someone kindly tell me what ES stands for?

Edited October 6, 2009 by hunnybunny

[MightyMouse 12]

Mighty Mouse, Mighty Mouse,

 

You sad sad jaundiced toxic soul. Better a silly bunny than a rodent with delusions of grandeur. You are still not posting anything germane. Why not post your trades, so we can learn from them? This is a thread about Trader P/L. Thanks to ThalesTrader, Brownsfan and other friendly constructive contributors to this thread.

 

My contribution for the day: long eur/ogbp at 9216.

 

Bunny, we are not supposed to post comments that are derogatory in nature. Please respect the wishes of the thread moderator.

 

I will begin posting my trades next week. Doubtful anyone will learn from them.

 

MM

[BrianNC 10]

OK. Back to trading.

 

Sim trading. In the first chart, you can see where I put my buy and sell stops early this morning somewhere around 1 or 2am, using the previous high and low at the ellipses of the consolidation. I had a 10 point target in both direction based on an earlier swing low and high at the ellipses on the second chart which is a 60 minute chart.

 

Sorry, hit submit by accident. Going to start a new complete post.

[bathrobe 10]

I usually do not trade the open but the pa looked very good to me, I attempted to write on the chart and erased a bunch of the bars that is why it looks crazy.

Edited October 6, 2009 by bathrobe

[BrianNC 10]

OK. Back to trading.

 

Sim trading. In the first chart, you can see where I put my buy and sell stops early this morning somewhere around 1 or 2am, using the previous high and low (the ellipses) at the consolidation. I had a 10 point target in both direction based on an earlier swing low and high at the ellipses on the second chart (the middle ellipse is the consolidation) which is a 60 minute chart.

 

Trade was triggered to the high side at 3:04 and 10 pt. target was hit at 9:47 this morning. I don't think I have ever made a successful trade like this with that large a target. It was about as satisfying a trade as I have ever done. Usually I am stopped out with that large a target because I use a small stop, but this time I used stops based on earlier S/R so I had larger stops. Entry and target hit are on the last chart. The ellipses to the left just showing the swing high and low of the consolidation where I had my buy and sell stops.

 

Trade taken and managed off the 15 min. chart. Targets set based on 60 min. chart.

Edited October 6, 2009 by BrianNC

[hunnybunny 10]

Bathrobe, sorry to ask stupid questions, but is it the S&P you're trading and what is es please?

 

BrianNC, i look forward to seeing your charts and sim trades.

 

And MM, you're right. I was mean and it was wrong of me. Please accept my apologies. Peace?

[bathrobe 10]

Bathrobe, sorry to ask stupid questions, but is it the S&P you're trading and what is es please?

 

BrianNC, i look forward to seeing your charts and sim trades.

 

And MM, you're right. I was mean and it was wrong of me. Please accept my apologies. Peace?

 

No problem the ES is the symbol for the emini S&P

[hunnybunny 10]

Nice trade, Bathrobe! :thumbs up: You went long 100 lots?? Wow.

[bathrobe 10]

Followed up with a short later in the day. Two trades in all.

[hunnybunny 10]

Amazing stuff, Bathrobe. A long and short in half a day! Keep the trades and signals coming.

[hunnybunny 10]

Closed out the 0.9216 eurogbp long at 0.9266 for 50 pips.

[brownsfan019 17]

Alright, back to blotters and the day at hand. Feel free to take all side stuff over to Thales' thread since he graciously offered to take it there.

 

I guess Mon was slow all around as I didn't do much either. It got so slow I just shut it down, so nothing on Monday.

 

Today was a bit better, particularly on oil:

10/6/09: +$755

 

As a side note, the ZN has been slow the last few trading days. It's really irritating me...

[bathrobe 10]

Brownsfan,

 

When you are watching multiple markets are you watching several time frames in each? Do you use an audible alert system?

 

Good Job and nice to see you prove it can be done consistently.

 

Chris

[brownsfan019 17]

Brownsfan,

 

When you are watching multiple markets are you watching several time frames in each? Do you use an audible alert system?

 

Good Job and nice to see you prove it can be done consistently.

 

Chris

 

• 1 setting per market (tick charts mainly right now - range chart on ZS)
  
• And yes, I do set audible and popup box alerts in the OEC trader software
  

PS

I think you're kicking my ass in terms of $$$. You got it going Chris and have the confidence to do some nice size. If anything, you are proving it can be done w/ 1 or 2 little trades, but trade some size and be confident in them. That's all you need to make a nice living at this. Gone are the days of trading over and over and over for me.

[Grey1 10]

I am just posting these trade for people to get into automated trading rather than discretionary ,, so the results are all LIVE and real $$$ and only as explained above,, I have no system to sell and not coaching services what so ever,,hehehe

2 signals only the first signal returned $920 and the second around $1500.. The flat postions are those which have hit their target hence not shown in strategy P/l.. Platform is TS8.6 ..

[bathrobe 10]

• 1 setting per market (tick charts mainly right now - range chart on ZS)
  
• And yes, I do set audible and popup box alerts in the OEC trader software
  

PS

I think you're kicking my ass in terms of $$$. You got it going Chris and have the confidence to do some nice size. If anything, you are proving it can be done w/ 1 or 2 little trades, but trade some size and be confident in them. That's all you need to make a nice living at this. Gone are the days of trading over and over and over for me.

 

Thank you for the compliment, I greatly respect what you have to say and have learned a great deal from you, especially about the not so sexy bonds:)

 

Of all the books on trading I have read the one and most important fact I have taken away is that when you are trading well ramp up size and when not so good cut down on size. Obviously from Paul Tudor Jones in the original Market Wizards.

 

I know all traders love him but putting what he says in that interview into practice is a great take way for traders of any size IMO.

 

As for me, stopping over trading was the last piece of the puzzle to being consistently profitable.

 

Chris

[JKLM 10]

Alright, back to blotters and the day at hand. Feel free to take all side stuff over to Thales' thread since he graciously offered to take it there.

 

I guess Mon was slow all around as I didn't do much either. It got so slow I just shut it down, so nothing on Monday.

 

Today was a bit better, particularly on oil:

10/6/09: +$755

 

As a side note, the ZN has been slow the last few trading days. It's really irritating me...

 

I also trading oil, and I must admit that your first oil trade was very risky from my point of view ...

I understand your entry setup ..but why did you hold it so long ?

what gives you confidence to hold it ?

and exit ..does you look on R1 ( ressistance 1 ).or something else

 

second setup I also take ..that was easy one

 

anyway you get :applaud: from me today

 

I asume this was your trades for today

Edited October 6, 2009 by JKLM

[Dinerotrader 10]

Stock: MEE -$0.16 or -0.5%

 

I don't like trading late in the day at all but I haven't gotten many trades in lately so I tried this one out and stopped out. This the best I can do for a blotter right now.

 

[daedalus 10]

I am just posting these trade for people to get into automated trading rather than discretionary ,, so the results are all LIVE and real $$$ and only as explained above,, I have no system to sell and not coaching services what so ever,,hehehe

2 signals only the first signal returned $920 and the second around $1500.. The flat postions are those which have hit their target hence not shown in strategy P/l.. Platform is TS8.6 ..

 

Keep up the posting. I'm very interested to see your results and hear more about neural networks and "new age" automated trading. There is very little on the subject and I know of very few people who use systems like that and I think its fascinating.

 

Thanks for sharing! Congrats on the good day!

[brownsfan019 17]

I also trading oil, and I must admit that your first oil trade was very risky from my point of view ...

I understand your entry setup ..but why did you hold it so long ?

what gives you confidence to hold it ?

and exit ..does you look on R1 ( ressistance 1 ).or something else

 

second setup I also take ..that was easy one

 

anyway you get :applaud: from me today

 

I asume this was your trades for today

 

JKLM - look at your exit points - do those look random? I don't use pivots.

 

Just looking for a few good setups per day in each market and today was oil's turn to produce.