Trader P/L 2009

[BrianNC 10]

Sim trading. Here is a trade I took tonight. Trading off the 15 min, chart. In the first chart (ignore the first trade, that was my 2 pointer that I posted about Friday), price broke below the trend line/triangle I had drawn. I wasn't at the charts when it broke, but here a few bars after. So, I assumed a down move, and had a sell stop one tick below the previous low bar of 1032.50. If it broke that previous low 2 bars back before the trade triggered, I would get in. Trade was triggered and in at 1032.25.

 

If you look at the second chart, my target was the previous low of 1023 back on 9/10 where I drew the ellipse. It looked like an obvious area of support to me. The trade went in my favor and went down to 1026.50 and pulled back for a couple of bars. When it started down again, I placed my stop 1 tick above that pullback at 1028.75. Price went down to 1025.50 (6.75 pts) then pulled back again. In the mean time I got a little agressive with my stop and lowered it to 1 tick above the bar prior to the low bar of my trade at 1027.75 where I was eventually stopped out for a 4.5 pt. profit.

 

To be honest with you, I am not sure I could have held through all that with real money on the line. It was hard enough doing it sim trading. : ) Again, all comments, advice, critique, soundness of the decision, wrongness of the decision, etc., welcome. Would there have been a way to preserve a couple of those points I ended up giving back? I was setting my stop according to the 15 min, Could I have stopped more aggressively using a smaller chart?

 

I'm kinda liking this 15 min. chart. The nature of the larger time frame seems to make for bigger targets than using a short term chart. You can see the big picture better.

[brownsfan019 17]

Nice work going here guys. Looks like a close nit group of regular posters. Keep it up and I'll hopefully be joining you soon. Needed a breather from trading and the forums while the weather was so nice here.

 

Keep up the great work everyone!

 

[BrianNC 10]

Nice work going here guys. Looks like a close nit group of regular posters. Keep it up and I'll hopefully be joining you soon. Needed a breather from trading and the forums while the weather was so nice here.

 

Keep up the great work everyone!

 

 

Looking forward to you coming back. This has been a great thread.

[daedalus 10]

Nice work going here guys. Looks like a close nit group of regular posters. Keep it up and I'll hopefully be joining you soon. Needed a breather from trading and the forums while the weather was so nice here.

 

Keep up the great work everyone!

 

 

+1 I love checking in and seeing you all doing well and continually posting. I'll get back to posting my results daily as well!

 

Cheers!

[JKLM 10]

 

Look into a 1:2 ratio of stop to target, this way if you are making sound trading decisions you will win more often than lose, give your stop enough room though.

 

Hope it helps

 

did I get you right ..you recommend wider stops than targets or oposite

[BrianNC 10]

did I get you right ..you recommend wider stops than targets or oposite

 

Could you elaborate on that bathrobe?

[bathrobe 10]

did I get you right ..you recommend wider stops than targets or oposite

 

No, I meant for instance a 2 pt. stop and a 4 pt target. Due to the nature of the S&P I think you need at least 2pts. for a stop, I use (for most trades) 3:3 As you progress and feel more comfortable and can evaluate price action while a trade is happening moving stops/targets is done every trade for me, and I use a 1:! to begin with, I just do not recommend this for people trading on emotion, under-capitalized traders, traders still learning and so on.

 

I would also recommend when trading more than one contract to use a (example) 2pt stop, 3pt target for one, move stop to +1 tick and let last run.

[bathrobe 10]

Results for Tuesday the 15th of September, I also attached a chart from Technical Analysis QQQ Trading Nasdaq 100 Stock chart S&P 500 market timing system. I have the free 1 month trial only so I attached the chart of the S&P cash index; for the emini you must subscribe, the volume indicator is interesting, I only am looking at it because it is volume based.

Edited September 15, 2009 by bathrobe
no reason at all

[Dinerotrader 10]

I thought I had FNET under control today and it worked me twice. I worked on controlling my emotions during the trade in an effort to remain calm and accepting of the result. I tend to want to start counting my profits as soon as I am in the money which is not good for my money management decisions. I'll never let the winners run if I do that. I just keep thinking, "what would thales do" and that seems to get me back on track.

 

 

[bathrobe 10]

I thought I had FNET under control today and it worked me twice. I worked on controlling my emotions during the trade in an effort to remain calm and accepting of the result. I tend to want to start counting my profits as soon as I am in the money which is not good for my money management decisions. I'll never let the winners run if I do that. I just keep thinking, "what would thales do" and that seems to get me back on track.

 

 

 

I am curious what broker you use for stocks and how you like them. I use optionsxpress when I trade equities, options, or etf's, which is very rarely, though I would like to do more and add a portfolio of longer term "investments", not trades. I have been looking at TOS, I like the ease of use and charting

 

Please, anyone who likes a stock broker and thinks they are above and beyond the rest let me know.

 

Thanks.

Edited September 15, 2009 by bathrobe
I love to edit

[brownsfan019 17]

Results for Tuesday the 15th of September, I also attached a chart from Technical Analysis QQQ Trading Nasdaq 100 Stock chart S&P 500 market timing system. I have the free 1 month trial only so I attached the chart of the S&P cash index; for the emini you must subscribe, the volume indicator is interesting, I only am looking at it because it is volume based.

 

BR - for those of us slower ones out here, mind explaining what that chart is showing?

 

[bathrobe 10]

BR - for those of us slower ones out here, mind explaining what that chart is showing?

 

 

Sure, the charts show "surges" in volume, which is discussed in the Trade Intensity thread. According to the website these surges in volume always come before a change in trend direction, and using the market volume SBV oscillator (selling - buying volume) you can reduce your losses by 50%. Today was my first day watching it so I really can't comment on how well it works.

 

Their are many ways of plotting volume surges and the package comes with all the other Technical Indicators as well as market outlook. They also offer signals using the SBV oscillator.

 

I am just too busy today to get into it more but I will include more info tomorrow, they offer a lot more than I will most likely get into because I don't want to miss a move because I was messing with something new.

 

I will keep you posted.

[Dinerotrader 10]

I am curious what broker you use for stocks and how you like them. I use optionsxpress when I trade equities, options, or etf's, which is very rarely, though I would like to do more and add a portfolio of longer term "investments", not trades. I have been looking at TOS, I like the ease of use and charting

 

Please, anyone who likes a stock broker and thinks they are above and beyond the rest let me know.

 

Thanks.

 

I actually use Wells Fargo right now since they give me free trades but I will be switching to Ameritrade soon because I need more bells and whistles to manage my trades. Ameritrade also gives you access to TOS since they own them now. I am sure others have more wisdom to offer about brokers.

[BrianNC 10]

Sim trading. Here is a chart from yesterday and today. Not going to go into much explanation other than trading S/R. These trades are taken at breakouts of consolidation. I have found that if I don't document at the time of the trade, when I go back and look, I can't remember what time frame I used to take the trade, and can't see as clearly why I took it, although the reasons for it were sound at the time. So I will document starting tomorrow at the time of trade so I can remember and the charts will be more obvious.

 

First chart is 15 min. with three trades, one loser and two winners. The objective on the first trade which was a loser was for a long run, but I was stopped out precisely at my stop, then it turned and made the move I was looking for. Second and third trade was for two points and 3.25 points respectively. Second trade, the entry and exit is on the same bar.

 

Second trade today was at a breakout also for two points which was my target. I have a harder time determining upside targets than I do downside ones for some reason. The downside seems to be more obvious to me and I can manage the trade longer. Maybe someone can give me suggestions.

[thalestrader 14]

I thought I had FNET under control today and it worked me twice...

 

 

Here is FNET with horizontal lines at the levels of your two buys (I am assuming you traded this from the long side).

 

How did you decide to take these trades?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[bathrobe 10]

BR - for those of us slower ones out here, mind explaining what that chart is showing?

 

 

Brownsfan, here is a chart with selling and buying volume spikes and troughs below the Market Volume Selling-Buying Volume histogram.

 

I find the spike in both volume and selling volume right before 14:40 while buying volume stayed relatively flat; or at least nothing to alert anyone to anything interesting underway.

 

I find the breakdown of volume extremely interesting, and along with price action it is what I use most.

 

Hope you find it interesting,

 

Chris

 

P.S. I will try to look into the rest of the volume based indicators offered and will let you guys know when I do.

 

P.P.S My infrequent posts on this thread lately are due to a commitment to my family's business I had made quite a while ago. fwiw.

[BrianNC 10]

Sim trading. This is trade I entered last night at 3am and it hit my target at 6:41 while I was in bed. 15 minute chart. Ignore the trade on the left of the chart. That is the trade I did yesterday and already posted about.

 

I had a buy stop set at 2 ticks above the previous high before the entry (ellipse) at 1049.25. I used 2 ticks just as more of a confirmation of the breakthrough than 1 tick. A consolidation had developed since yesterday. I didn't have a sell stop due to a lot of support from below and the overall picture (I erased some of my lines to make the trade clearer). I had a 2 point target (since right now that is all I am going for, a consistent 2 points) and it was just below the previous high from yesterday at the top line on the chart anyway.

 

Anyone else trading S/R could tell me what a higher upside target would have been why? Thanks.

[Dinerotrader 10]

Here is FNET with horizontal lines at the levels of your two buys (I am assuming you traded this from the long side).

 

How did you decide to take these trades?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

I think a good way for me to judge a trade entry will be to ask the question, "will I be ashamed to explain this entry reasoning to thales".

 

1st Entry

The 1st entry I am ashamed of. FNET had a lot of excitement and after watching TIV go up 200% the other day I think I was just looking to buy a pullback instead of watch for a good breakout. There was a little bit of up tempo in price so I bought in and the price just stayed in the downward channel.

 

2nd Entry

This one I am more comfortable with my entry. I say the channel break and price crossed a recent high from the channel. I tried to let the trade run along and moved my stop to breakeven.

 

This chart shows some more defined channel breaks I could have taken for a possible small gain if I had trailed closely. The morning offered the best buys but I have a huge problem in that I can only start trading 2 hours after the market has opened. Once daylight savings time changes, I will be able to start trading 20 minutes into the market and I will focus more on higher high breakouts.

 

I'm not taking any daytrades today since all my swing trades are riding up with the market. I'll try to firm up my trading rules and policies today.

 

Thales, thanks for asking.

[bathrobe 10]

Pretty sick today, had to scratch most contracts/+1tick. I should have not traded today.

[BrianNC 10]

Pretty sick today, had to scratch most contracts/+1tick. I should have not traded today.

 

I wish I was that sick!

[bathrobe 10]

Actually, the more I think about it, today was a HUGE mistake, in my plan I do not trade when not 100%. I was motivated by greed, not a lot of free days to trade lately so when I have one I want to make it count, not sleep in.

 

Had I lost on the other hand I would be sicker.

[bathrobe 10]

Attached is another chart from MarketVolume.com

[thalestrader 14]

This chart shows some more defined channel breaks ... Once daylight savings time changes... I will focus more on higher high breakouts.

 

Hi imorgan,

 

Perhaps you would consider looking for stocks behaving as WFR did today. This is a common occurrence, and in many ways it is exactly the same as FNET yesterday only different.

 

Both stocks had early, strong moves, and each offered three buy points. Now, here is a caution, the third buy point off of any base usually finds that the rally out of that base is completely retraced or more. Therefore, when you have a strong move, either up or down, where two narrow consolidations at the highs breakout to new sustained highs, I typically do not buy the third breakout. This applies to intraday rallies as well as daily and even weekly charts. Late stage bases tend to be weak. The traders who had bought the first two breakouts are usually selling on the way out of the third breakout. If the third does not retrace, and the stock offers a fourth, I will sell into that fourth breakout.

 

Both FNET yesterday and WFR today offered three buy points. The first two led to positive results. The third breakouts stalled and a correction ensued. This much is almost scripted. Everyday, day after day you will see stocks behaving like this (for both rallies and declines). Here is where they are different: FNET's correction never ceased, and the stock never saw a new high. WFR, on the other hand, traced out a patter that some might call a "cup with handle." You can call it "macaronie and cheese" for all it matters. The point is that the stock recovered and made new highs. It did so at 12:35 EDT, more than three hours after the open. You will find these stocks breaking to new intraday highs after 12 noon. The often do so on the half-hour (12:30, 1:30, 2:30, 3:30). The time is not a requirement, just sharing an observation.

 

For a day trade, you have a fixed, limited time. Why bother messing around with buy or sell points that may or may not lead to desired new highs or new lows? Be patient. Be demanding (but not too demanding or you will create a trading checklist that will forever keep you out of the market).

 

Others may differ, and perhaps you will too, but the channels you are drawing do not look particular useful to me.

 

Also, I may only close about 38% of my stock trades with a profit. But, if I simply wanted to trade for tiny 5-10-15 penny moves, I could close a much, much higher percentage of my trades for a profit. In other words, most of my trades show a 5-15 penny profit soon after entry. My willingness to see which will go for a dollar necessitates that I allow many of these small profits to run to a small loss. I suspect that these channel breaks you are using here will perhaps lead you to a similar winning% as me, i.e. approx 38%. But your average profit will likely be much too small to overcome your high % of losses. Why? Because you are buying into resistance. As with FNET, many of these stocks will not go on to make new intraday highs, which means you will experience fewer runners.

 

You are new. Why start bad habits right from the beginning? I will tell you from personal experience, bad habits inculcated today will be damaging to you for many years to come. Why put yourself through that? I did. I hate to use such language, but frankly, it sucks.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Now, here is a caution, the third buy point off of any base usually finds that the rally out of that base is completely retraced or more.

 

Here is today's ES. I posted a series of charts showing the ES making a series of higher highs throughout the day in the "Reading Charts in Real Time" thread. This shows the ES repeating a reliable breakout pattern four times during today's session. However, you want to get in the first or second breakout to new session highs, probably refrain from most third breakouts (though today's worked), and refuse to buy the fourth. In fact, if you are still long from an earlier buy, set a sell limit to liquidate at the waht would be the fourth breakout point's buy stop, and you will find yourself often liquidating at or near the high tick of the session. I had to leave early today, so I closed my long about a point below the third breakout point.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Gabe2004 10]

To cure the tendancy of anticipating a reversal (which I do too often) I started to play with the chartgame.com. It was mentioned by DB somewhere.

I think that it has the potential - after many hours - to reverse this tendancy and maybe allow one to leave the profitable trades to run (another thing which I don't do yet)

 

Gabe