Trader P/L 2009

[bathrobe 10]

Brian, you should use a longer term chart along with what you are already using. The move down to 1023 was the pullback, personally a 466tick is to short for me to identify a trend.

[bathrobe 10]

Also it did not pull back to your ma as much as it traded sideways until the ma caught up to it, if I were tempted by the short at the ma the divergence would have kept me out.

Edited September 9, 2009 by bathrobe

[BrianNC 10]

Brian, you should use a longer term chart along with what you are already using. The move down to 1023 was the pullback, personally a 466tick is to short for me to identify a trend.

 

Longer term as in what time frame?

[bathrobe 10]

Longer term as in what time frame?

 

I use a 5-min along with others but you should find what works for you. But keep an eye on something longer term.

[bathrobe 10]

Brian,

 

I do not mean to be redundant but in your initial question you asked for help and how I (any of us) would have traded it. I am far more aggressive now than I was when I started, so what I would have done really doesn't matter, (for the record, I did not trade it).

 

Regarding the open, a 5-min is too fast to see the larger trend. I have attached a 60min and that some would also consider too fast, but it helps, the box is where you shorted, any oscillator would show divergence, to keep you from going short. In my opinion the overall trend is very important.

 

I hope this helps,

Edited September 9, 2009 by bathrobe

[thalestrader 14]

Using the way you trade, what am I missing on my chart in way of indicators or support/resistance, etc. that you would have used to stay out of the short/take the short and/or go long after the consolidation and when would you have ended up going long with what you use if in fact you would have?

 

Brian, I'm not going to try to disuade you from using your indicators. Eventually you will either wean yourself from them or hang yourself with them.

 

Here is what I think you should learn from today: As Bathrobe said, you should look at a somewhat larger view to identify support and resistance levels. Once you have identified these levels, then a tick chart such as you are using is fine. DbPhoenix makes excellent use of a single tick chart, if I'm not mistaken. But he uses it, I believe, primarily to manage risk on his entries. You are using it to generate trades.

 

hink about it like this: You have selected an arbitrary bar size (466 tick) and then applied arbitrarily selected moving averages of those bars (24,14) and you now expect price to behave in an orderly and predictable manner based upon wholly arbitrary its suppossed interaction with these artificial constructs. I suspect, over time, your results will be wholly arbitrary, and they will be predictable only in the degree to which you wil be disappointed in them.

 

I have attached a 15 minute chart (I use the 5 minute for daytrading, but the 15 minute also has a useful story to tell). The blue line shows price testing a prior pulback low at 1923.25. Go back to your 466 tick chart, and you will see that price tested 1023.25, bounced slightly, retested 1023.25, and then resumed its rally. At the moment price was about to confirm that the rally was resuming by breaking above 1025 basis your 466 chart, you shorted.

 

You sold support. You do not want to sell support. You want to buy support. You want to sell resistance. You can also sell breaks of support. For example, a sell stop below 1023.25 would have been, in my opinion, a sensible entry. You can also buy breaks of resistance.

 

Use higher time frame charts to identify S/R. Then, plan for what action you will take when price reaches those levels. By all means, use your 466 tick chart if it works for you, but use it to help manage risk on your entries based on identifiable areas of S/R. For example, today, based on your tick chart and 1023.25 being possible support, you could have placed a buy limit at 1023.25/50 with a stop just a few ticks below. You could have had a sell stop at 1023 or so to go short, with a stop loss a few ticks above. You could have made the conservative entry, whcih to me would have been a buy stop to go long at 1025.25, with a stoploss at 1023, risking 2.25 points/contract, with profit targets at 1028, 1031, 1034, 1036, 1038, etc. based upon previous S/R.

 

That's it for me. Now, I am pirating a post from our friend Forrest that he made yesterday in the Wyckoff forum. It is a good post, and my hope is that it will make you curious enough to go and visit and possibly study and learn in the Wyckoff forum. I am not a contributor there. There are a number of very intelligent and worth folks who are contributors and from whom you will learn much.

 

We hope to see more of you both here in the P/L thread and elsewhere.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ok.... let me start with the disclaimer, I HAVE TONS TO STILL LEARN ABOUT TRADING. I AM NOT GOOD YET!!!!!!

 

OK, with that out the way, people sometimes ask me how to improve their trading (I don't know why cause I still suck)? I must give the impression that I know what I'm talking about.....well if that's the case I must have the whole 'fake it till you make it" thing down?

 

Particularly the people asking me for advice are those that either take too many trades per day, and people that can't sit through a pullback or retracement after entering to save their lives. Or they ask how to reduce the number of trades they take.

 

I always ask, have you looked into Support and Resistance? I go on to say this will probably lead to a more deliberate approach, maybe help you filter out a lot of useless trades, and give you some confidence to sit through a trade without pulling out too soon. I then direct them to the Wyckoff forum.

 

I give the above story to get to this point? After I suggest this, why is the first comment always, "but I am not interested in volume?" Or, "I don't think volume is going to help me!"

 

Then I always yell inside my head, and usually tell them to just focus on the S/R threads. This has happened with at least a half dozen people so far! And it doesn't make me upset, I'm just curious as to why this is the case?

 

Ok, I haven't formally studied Wyckoff. My knowledge is limited to the help the kind folks that participate here have imparted upon me. I have transfered this to futures trading, with ok success, my equities/options trading(this which I am utterly killing right now), and just a general way to look at things.

 

So do I have it wrong? Based on what I see here talked about the most frequently, I would think the areas of consolidation, S/R etc are the most important parts of the idea?

 

PS To answer Forrest's question, yes, areas of consolidation, support & resistance, are the most important, in my opinion. I do not use volume at all. Others of course disagree with my view, and that is fine.

[bathrobe 10]

Thales,

 

How did your daughters' trading end up? Last I heard from you regarding her it sounded like she had caught the trading bug. Sounded like a good time, when I was in grade school my dad was a stock/options trader, I wish he would have involved me.

[thalestrader 14]

Thales,

 

How did your daughters' trading end up? Last I heard from you regarding her it sounded like she had caught the trading bug. Sounded like a good time, when I was in grade school my dad was a stock/options trader, I wish he would have involved me.

 

Hi Bathrobe,

 

She finished with a bit less than 1k. We were going to fund another bucket shop account for she and I to team trade during the school year, but I decided to stay out of the buckets for now. Instead, I am going to be funding a small (just $5k) futures account at Infinity for she and I to play in - we're calling it our "Sand Box."

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[bathrobe 10]

1k is amazing, starting with only $25 I am sure the broker was pretty surprised and it sounds like it was a great time. Congratulations to the both of you. I wish her and you continued success.

 

Chris;)

[MightyMouse 12]

Sim trading. If someone could help me out here I would appreciate it. This is my chart from this morning, trade right after the open if you can't see the time due to an ad. Basically sold as the market turned and when the other way. There was a downtrend established in my estimation, price had made lower highs and lower lows and come through the MAs and MAs pointing down. I was going to sell on the pullback to the blue MA which I did. Of course at that point it never looked back to the upside for a few hours.

 

My chart is marked just like it was at the time of the trade. So a few of questions.

 

1. Should the divergence marked on the RSI and the support and small consolidation kept me out of the trade? We know how often divergence and support fails, but using a trading plan of buying on the pullbacks to the MA with the trend, should I absolutely have not taken this trade (I realize in hindsight I obviously shouldn't have, but think in real time).

 

2. Using just the info on my chart, would you have stayed out of the short due to consolidation and divergence, and then bought on the (a) break of the MA to the upside (b) break of the highs of the consolidation at 1025 © bought on the break of the trendline? Remember, don't read it in hindsight, but how you actually would have handled it in real time not knowing what was coming.

 

3. Using the way you trade, what am I missing on my chart in way of indicators or support/resistance, etc. that you would have used to stay out of the short/take the short and/or go long after the consolidation and when would you have ended up going long with what you use if in fact you would have?

 

1. The divergence in hindsight was a great reason to stay out. If you do that trade 2000 times, most of the time you'll be happy you stayed out,, the rest you would have made so much money if you had stayed in that it would have more than made up for the losses you would have taken by staying in and losing. Decide how you want to trade it.

 

2. I would have shorted at near the globex high and if i missed it, i would have waited for another set up to develop, but in no way would i have taken the short where you did because it's not the way i trade. I am not suggesting that you are wrong for taking the trade; just that I don't trade that way.

 

3. Pay attention to the longer term trend. You can start by looking at the daily trend and take trades that are only in the direction of the daily trend. To find the daily trend, put at least 100 bars of data on your chart and look at it. If it goes from lower left to upper right corner, then the trend is up. If goes from upper left to lower right, then it is a down trend. You don’t need a service or indicator to point this out.

 

 

Expect to take losses. you will never, ever trade without losses.

[forrestang 10]

Hi Bathrobe,

 

She finished with a bit less than 1k. We were going to fund another bucket shop account for she and I to team trade during the school year, but I decided to stay out of the buckets for now. Instead, I am going to be funding a small (just $5k) futures account at Infinity for she and I to play in - we're calling it our "Sand Box."

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

What's cool about your situation, is that since starting with brand new trader, she's not handicapped mentally.

 

Also, not that it's a good idea, but you could probably change her default from 1K to 10K to 100K w/o her ever noticing. I mean since you're the only one using your platform, she probably doesn't pay attention to most of it.

 

She would probably trade the exact same way and fund her college tuition in a short time w/o even knowing. You are passing on a most prized skillset that will translate into an enjoyable life one day.

[HAL9000 10]

I have scalped the 6B once more today on sim.

 

Its was quiet boring during the doldrums,

while currently its looks like something is cooking.

 

I have attached my setup chart too (not my smaller range timing chart).

 

[BrianNC 10]

Sim Trading. Here is a trade I set up last night before I went to bed using S/R and price and longer term charts as per advice I had been given on some earlier posts about my trading. I actually took the trade off the 15 minute chart.

 

You can see the channel I drew of what I considered a consolidation. The low of the channel was 1039.25 and the high was the previous swing high before I actually took that trade at 1041.75. I placed a buy stop one tick above that last high at 1042 and a sell stop at 1039 one tick below where I drew the support. My buy stop was triggered and I ended up taking 3 points. I am only looking to take 2 or 3 points out of a trade as I have not learned what I should use for targets to stay in the trade longer and how to manage that whole scenario of catching a larger run.

 

Again the trade was triggered at 1042 and I got out at 1045. Don't be confused by the 'Entry' label at where I got out. It's due to not understanding the orders totally on the NT dome. I executed an ATM strategy to get out (not knowingly) so it shows it as an entry even though it was getting out of my two contacts on the trade. The first ellipse is showing the support and the second is where the trade was executed one tick above the previous swing high.

 

So, opening this up to your critique again. I realize the trade was a winner in hindsight, but was it sound in execution, setup, etc? Or did it just work out through dumb luck? Thanks for your insight and suggestions.

[Dinerotrader 10]

I was happy with today but very frustrated I missed a large part of the TIV move because I had a sell order in which triggered as the price flew past it.

 

Today and Yesterday's P/L

 

Edited September 11, 2009 by Dinerotrader

[thalestrader 14]

I was happy with today but very frustrated I missed a large part of the TIV move because I had a sell order in which triggered as the price flew past it.

 

Today and Yesterday's P/L

 

 

Some nice numbers on some cheapies.

 

Don't be frustrated ... remember Wyckoff: There is calmness before, during, and after the trade.

 

It is easier said than done, but you want to train yourself emotionally so that a winning trade and a losing trade have exactly the same emotional impact on you state of mind (I hope that doesn't sound too "new age-like". It is meant in all seriousness.

[Dinerotrader 10]

Some nice numbers on some cheapies.

 

Thanks thales,

 

If you look at the chart for TIV you will see I should have made a lot more. The first sell was a mistake, the second was just fear driven because my mind kept thinking that the stock was already so over-extended that a sharp drop was highly probable and my broker won't let me stop loss these tiny stocks. These small stocks tend to move much more than the higher priced stocks and I need that movement to make the trade worth while given the amount of capital I am using.

 

The actual points I marked aren't perfect but you get the idea.

 

Edited September 11, 2009 by Dinerotrader

[BrianNC 10]

Sim trading. Here is another trade I took today in addition to the one in post #866 which I would still appreciate some feedback on. The trade in post #866 was taken off the 15 min, where this one was actually taken off the S/R showing on the 466 tick. I am just looking to scalp 1 or 2 points consistently, and make more money by adding contracts. I would like to stay in a trade longer term, but haven't learned what to look for to do that, and what targets I should be looking for when doing it.

 

Three charts. One is the 15 min. which I used to see overall trend according to the advice I have been given here. One is the 466 tick which I used to make the trade and has the stops I used to get into the trade, and another 466 tick showing the entry and exit once the trade was over.

 

On the 466 tick with the stops you can see I had the buy at one tick above 1037.50 where 5 candles had touched, and I had the sell stop one tick below 1035 where the last swing low was. It finally hit the buy, and I had my target set for 2 points which was hit after about an hour (I entered at 2:21 and the target was hit at 3:24) which ended up being just a point or so below the high of that run before the close. I had a 10 tick stop, not based on S/R. Just an arbitrary number I use. If someone would give me stop suggestions I would appreciate that too.

 

I didn't use the RSI at the bottom in the trade. It's just my default chart setup and it was not referenced during the trading. I was actually going to take it off and forgot.

 

Again, was this based on sound S/R decisions? Especially in light of just wanting a couple of points? Should I even have had a sell stop since the overall trend was up? My thinking was even a sell at the break of that low might produce a point or two. Thanks for your comments.

[bathrobe 10]

Brian, your level that was touched 5 times was touched on the 466tick chart, my feedback regarding this aspect would be to look for a break using a larger time frame chart (3min can work well)

 

Look into a 1:2 ratio of stop to target, this way if you are making sound trading decisions you will win more often than lose, give your stop enough room though.

 

You had other S/R levels less than 2points from both your buy and sell stop, if 38.25 had held, your trade would have been a loser instead.

 

I would not have bought into resistance.

 

Hope it helps

[BrianNC 10]

 

That's it for me. Now, I am pirating a post from our friend Forrest that he made yesterday in the Wyckoff forum. It is a good post, and my hope is that it will make you curious enough to go and visit and possibly study and learn in the Wyckoff forum. I am not a contributor there. There are a number of very intelligent and worth folks who are contributors and from whom you will learn much.

 

I started reading in that forum. Is there a 'Wyckoff for Dummies' forum?

[thalestrader 14]

I started reading in that forum. Is there a 'Wyckoff for Dummies' forum?

 

You can download some original Wyckoff in .pdf in this post of DbPhoneix's: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/30/price-action-only-5074-11.html#post75305

 

There is a lot of wonderful material provided by Db in his blog here at TL: Traders Laboratory - Introduction/eBook

 

I have not read Db's eBook, and therefore I am only directing you to the material posted to his blog. As Db suggests, study the material at his blog, and then decide for yourself if you might find his eBook useful. You are, after all, responsible for your own trading decisions, and that includes where and with whom you choose to spend your money during your apprenticeship.

 

For what its worth, I consider my own trading to be very much based upon Wyckoff, though I do not use volume at all. You yourself might ultimately find volume to be useful. Volume can provide important information to the trader, but my opinion, based upon my experience, is that price truly does tell its own story, and no additional information is necessary to trade it.

 

Also, I am emphatically not a Wyckoff expert, so I would encourage you to seek out others on this forum to answer any specific questions you may have as concerning the subject.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited September 13, 2009 by thalestrader

[MightyMouse 12]

I started reading in that forum. Is there a 'Wyckoff for Dummies' forum?

 

Brian,

 

 

If you want to learn Wyckoff, you should go right to the source and seek out the original works, which are still obtainable. Originally, it began as a stock selection system. So, you will find that most modern renditions of Wyckoff attempt to use about half the original method to find trading opportunities in futures and forex markets. So, essentially, all are "Wyckoff for Dummies" versions of Wyckoff.

 

Trading is hard enough when you are intelligent. Why would you want to learn how to trade like a dummie?

[BrianNC 10]

Brian,

 

 

If you want to learn Wyckoff, you should go right to the source and seek out the original works, which are still obtainable. Originally, it began as a stock selection system. So, you will find that most modern renditions of Wyckoff attempt to use about half the original method to find trading opportunities in futures and forex markets. So, essentially, all are "Wyckoff for Dummies" versions of Wyckoff.

 

Trading is hard enough when you are intelligent. Why would you want to learn how to trade like a dummie?

 

It's not about trading like a dummy. That's not what the 'Dummies' books are about. It's about simplifying the explanation. And from some of the other posts on that forum, I am not the only one that thinks it sounds complicated at first reading.

[MightyMouse 12]

You can download some original Wyckoff in .pdf in this post of DbPhoneix's: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/30/price-action-only-5074-11.html#post75305

 

There is a lot of wonderful material provided by Db in his blog here at TL: Traders Laboratory - Introduction/eBook

 

I have not read Db's eBook, and therefore I am only directing you to the material posted to his blog. As Db suggests, study the material at his blog, and then decide for yourself if you might find his eBook useful. You are, after all, responsible for your own trading decisions, and that includes where and with whom you choose to spend your money during your apprenticeship.

 

For what its worth, I consider my own trading to be very much based upon Wyckoff, though I do not use volume at all. You yourself might ultimately find volume to be useful. Volume can provide important information to the trader, but my opinion, based upon my experience, is that price truly does tell its own story, and no additional information is necessary to trade it.

 

Also, I am emphatically not a Wyckoff expert, so I would encourage you to seek out others on this forum to answer any specific questions you may have as concerning the subject.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thales,

 

Thales,

 

How is your trading very much based on Wyckoff if you do not use volume and believe that price tells the story and no additional information is necessary to trade it? Volume is a very large part of the Wyckoff principals no matter which interpretation you use.

[thalestrader 14]

Thales,

 

Thales,

 

How is your trading very much based on Wyckoff if you do not use volume and believe that price tells the story and no additional information is necessary to trade it? Volume is a very large part of the Wyckoff principals no matter which interpretation you use.

 

To tell the truth, something about the manner in which you asked the question rubs me the wrong way. I believe anyone who has read and studied Wyckoff, (the original source, as you recommend) would readily be able to apply many of his principles concerning support, resistance, trend, etc. to his or her trading without using of volume to confirm one's reading of price.

[MightyMouse 12]

To tell the truth, something about the manner in which you asked the question rubs me the wrong way. I believe anyone who has read and studied Wyckoff, (the original source, as you recommend) would readily be able to apply many of his principles concerning support, resistance, trend, etc. to his or her trading without using of volume to confirm one's reading of price.

 

 

It wasn't my intent at all to rub you the wrong way. Just that wyckoff is the study of price and volume and not really price or volume. It sounds like you have determined that price action works better for you.

 

No worries.