Trader P/L 2009

[diablo272 10]

I question TTM's model altogether. I used to be on the list of free videos and late one evening they sent me one called "Thanks fed for 25k" which included a 30 contract ES trade that was running and gathered many points. In later videos they discussed swing trading the ES with a 100 point stop (not kidding) and that there stolen squeeze indicator had fired off several 5k losses. I would not at all be surprised if most if not all of their revenue comes from selling overpriced indicators and web events, not trading. Of course this is just speculation, I was once a huge cheerleader of theirs, but the nonstop barrage of 7k training and 3k meetups in LA and 1500k indicators that are free on the web got to me after a while.

 

If you're skeptical, ask for some statements from one of their accounts. If they're selling something to you with the claim that it will make you profitable, they shouldn't have a problem doing that.

[thalestrader 14]

While risk/reward is not everything, it can break systems rather quickly if not considered. I'm sure John's account could absorb a few losses in a row and slowly rebuild the account back up, but not sure how many could stomach that type of loss that purchase their courses.

 

 

Excellent post, Brownie.

 

My only point of contention would be that I am of the opinion that risk/reward is indeed everything. I have one more trade to close out and I will be finished for the week (I am long NDAQ at 19.50 and my stop loss is 19.39, looking . Once that is finished, I'll post my weekly summary and I'll share with you how focus on risk/reward like a laser beam.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

If you're skeptical, ask for some statements from one of their accounts. If they're selling something to you with the claim that it will make you profitable, they shouldn't have a problem doing that.

 

I doubt any of these system sellers, software vendors, or "trading course" authors will ever provide audited trading statements. And even if they did, and even if they showed a profit trading whatever sytem, method, etc they were selling, one's ability to duplicate their success is, unfortunately, not teachable. Whether one makes a profit or not trading any "system" will depend far more on the soul of the individual doing the trading than the system or its rules.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[brownsfan019 17]

Excellent post, Brownie.

 

My only point of contention would be that I am of the opinion that risk/reward is indeed everything. I have one more trade to close out and I will be finished for the week (I am long NDAQ at 19.50 and my stop loss is 19.39, looking . Once that is finished, I'll post my weekly summary and I'll share with you how focus on risk/reward like a laser beam.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thales - I agree, I am a risk/reward guy myself as well. I didn't make a hard and fast comment there b/c some could argue that they can have a risk of 4 to make 2, but if the winning % is high enough, it works. And it can, but not my cup of tea.

 

We are on the same page there.

[diablo272 10]

I doubt any of these system sellers, software vendors, or "trading course" authors will ever provide audited trading statements. And even if they did, and even if they showed a profit trading whatever sytem, method, etc they were selling, one's ability to duplicate their success is, unfortunately, not teachable. Whether one makes a profit or not trading any "system" will depend far more on the soul of the individual doing the trading than the system or its rules.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

That's certainly true, but I do think that a statement showing profit is more than many of these vendors would be able to show. If someone isn't able to turn a profit with their own system, that would be a red flag (not that someone else might not be able to turn a profit with that same system, but why would you want to do business with a liar)?

[thalestrader 14]

I feel that with the indexes there is no lost opportunity ... Unlike stocks where you might watch a stock for days waiting for your 'opportunity' and if you miss it you have to go and look for another. Unless of course you are as good as Thalestrader. lol

 

 

Just for the record, I never watch a stock for days waiting for an opportunity. I never know what I'll be trading on a particular day until I am placing the order. Many times I have no idea what the company whose stock I am buying even does!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Robert Joyce 10]

opps there is one more thing you can know about a single tick and that is whether it was bought on the bid or the ask.

 

So says my brother.... lol

[thalestrader 14]

That's certainly true, but I do think that a statement showing profit is more than many of these vendors would be able to show. If someone isn't able to turn a profit with their own system, that would be a red flag.

 

Agreed.

 

And for the record, I have bought more than my share of software, systems, books, dvd's etc etc over the years.

 

In the end, it was a handful of inexpensive books and hours upon hours of screen time that really pointed me in the right direction.

[bathrobe 10]

Regarding TTM, I would do what they do also if I could. Enjoy long weekend.

[DaKine 10]

I was able to end the day green after being down -13 from the start. Shoulda Woulda Coulda took a small loss on the first trade. I doubled up on the next and got close to b/e as I could, wish I would have held for my normal targets as I caught the low and could have ridden it up to mean and DVAH. Anyway was able to get +9 cum on the day. Have a great weekend!

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Two trades today: CME +$0.45 and NDAQ + $.10 for $0.55 total/share

 

Here is a sumary of this week's activity.

 

21 trades

13 Profits

8 Losses

 

Average Profitable Trade: was +52 pennies/share, and average loss was -8 pennies/share. R:R ratio approx. 6.5:1

 

Total profit for the week was $6.17/share. This simply means that total profit in dollars = $6.17 x # of shares/trade. For example, if each trade were 100 shares, total profit would be $6.17 x 100 = $617.00. If each trade was 1500 shares, then total profit for the week would be 1500 x 6.17 = $9255.00

If each trade were 1 share, then the total profit would be 1 x $6.17 = $6.17

 

My weekly goal is a total profit of $1.50/share. Some weeks I fail to reach my goal, some weeks I exceed it. The key is keeping losses small relative to profits.

 

Best Wishes for the weekend,

 

Thales

[brownsfan019 17]

5-22-09

 

Nuttin to report. Woke up not feeling good and just took the day off. Have a great, long weekend everyone! Don't forget that Mon is a US holiday.

[Robert Joyce 10]

Ok so no real trades today. I did put on some sims with 2 YM contracts, a 21 pt stop and 8 and 15 pt limits. Two losers to start then 5 winners in a row each one taking out both limits, it was beautiful to watch, ended up $235. but only 21 true points. Still I am very happy with my week. It has really helped me immensely to have these dialogues with yous guys and I hope to have more in the future. Thanks for listening.

[bathrobe 10]

my buddy brought them to the table, I don't trade them but I do watch them and low and behold when I get a good crossover signal on my sets of EMA's one or more of those squeeze indicators go off. Hmmmmmmm

 

 

Robert,

 

I have been watching this version of the Squeeze for a while, it is free for Ninja and was originally written by the paintbarfactory.com. You can get it free from TradingStudies.com - Custom programming for electronic trading platforms.... The divergences as shown on the chart below can be quite powerful, though I am yet to take one live. Here is a chart from today showing a good move on 512tick with PBF Squeeze using divergence as the signal.

 

The Paint Bar Factory seems to react quicker sometimes.

 

Does your friend use the squeeze? I would be interested if they have found success with it.

 

Have a good weekend,

 

Chris

[thalestrader 14]

The divergences as shown on the chart below can be quite powerful ... Here is a chart from today showing a good move on 512tick with PBF Squeeze using divergence as the signal.

 

Hi Chris,

 

Here are three charts for you to ponder over. In the first, you will note that divergence is ubiquitous in the world of oscilators and momentum indicators.

 

In the other two, see what it looks like without indicators. At one time I was an indicator dependent trader. I am much more comfortable now trading with just the price bars themselves (though I do still place a 20 ema on my charts throughout the day, but that is it).

 

My point is not to convince you t shed all reliance on indicators overnight, but simply to ask that you start really paying attention to what price is doing when your indicators provide you with a "set up" or "signal." Once you start to study this relationship, really paying attention to what price is doing at the moment of decision, you will find that you will wean yourself from all dependence on indicators surprisingly quickly.

 

As you come to trade more on price and less on indicators, your confidence will increase. You will find yourself able to let your trades work with the stops the market present to you, and you will find yourself holding for more than a 1-3 tick profit.

 

Study, study, study your charts - that is what traders do on Saturday mornings!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Here are three charts for you to ponder over.

 

And here is a follow-up, with a few cautions, caveats, etc.

 

1) As I have said before, it is always easier to "read" a chart after the fact than as it is happening. So the fact that I have marked the chart as you will see does not mean I would have been smart enough, nor quick enough, to place the trade.

 

2) Also, this is a 512 tick chart. I have no idea how quickly this price action unfolded, so even if I saw it, I do not know if there'd have been time enough for me to decide and then enter where I'd like to have entered.

 

3) It is not uncommon for the market to push to one further lower low or higher high (a third push) after the initial appearance of "divergence."

 

The basis for it is that price drops quckly into a low with nary a pullback along the way, and then price consolidates in a choppy fashion. When the down move resumes it manages only a brief two tick penetration of the first low, and then reverses. An aggressive trade would be to enter when price traded 1 tick above the previous low, a more conservative approach (albeit with a larger inital risk) would have been to enter on a stop 1 tick above the consolidation's high. Depending upon you entry, this would have been good for a 5-7 point profit before you would have reversed to a short position on the same basic set-up. The short trade would have been a small .75-2.75 loser.

 

This is a very common occurrence, and after time, one hardly needs an indicator to see that there is not as much strength on the move to a lower low or higher high.

 

Best to your trading,

 

Thales

[MidKnight 12]

Excellent post, Brownie.

 

My only point of contention would be that I am of the opinion that risk/reward is indeed everything. I have one more trade to close out and I will be finished for the week (I am long NDAQ at 19.50 and my stop loss is 19.39, looking . Once that is finished, I'll post my weekly summary and I'll share with you how focus on risk/reward like a laser beam.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Hi Thales,

 

Thanks for your posts here. I'm not trying to be pushy here, entirely at your own leisure, but are you still planning on posting about focusing on R/R like a laser beam? I look forward to it. Perhaps in another thread as it might detract from this threads intent.

 

With kind regards,

MK

[DaKine 10]

Missed the train in the am and got owned trying to short the single at 6.75. Took a speculative short again and stopped +2 ticks. -5.75 on the day. Need to crack em tomorrow.

 

take it ez

[Robert Joyce 10]

Ok, sorry no real trades today, too much business going on had to leave early and stuff but I did trade my sim today for about 2 hrs, 8 trades, all 2- YM contracts 6 winners and 2 stopped out for full 21 pts each time. But the six winners made that back plus profit of $615. for the day. I have all kinds of excuses for not trading for real. I wonder how many are truly legitimate or am I just a big chicken..... hmmmmmmmmmmmm

Time will tell.

 

Sorry I have not had a chance to respond to some of the comments here. I will more fully later, but just a short note to Thalestrader, that was a great post, but of course the same 'divergence' signal will be evident in many different indicators at the same time, and yes it will also be represented in 'price action'. But neither the price action nor the indicator by themselves is really sufficient, there should and will be confirmation from a number of sources. It all tells the same story if you know how to read.... There is a certain clarity to the way you describe these things which I really appreciate, thanks again.

[HAL9000 10]

During the past weeks I have mainly implemented some things,

and I will go on with it.

 

During this time I also paper traded.

It was frustrating. Loss after loss, while searching my major mistakes.

 

Well, maybe I have made a step forward.

One big mistake is my impatience, and I think I have found a

way to solve this problem.

 

I also switched back to the NQ and don't try to get runners anymore.

Not with one contract.

 

OK, today I took 10 longs, result 37.40 ticks.

 

And yes, I have made mistakes today too, more homework ...

 

 

[Robert Joyce 10]

Ok, no real trades today again. I was just too busy with some business and other distractions. But I did make some sim trades with 2 YM contracts and I just got smashed.... I did not see some of those slams coming at all. So consequently I got stopped out for my daily limit of $500. Thank God it was only a sim account. I just wasn't focused, kept getting distracted, so I just threw on a couple of sim trades and didn't pay attention. God I hope I never do that with real money.... yikes. Anyways, good news is it's only Wednesday and that leaves 2 trading days yet this week. Woohoo...

[bathrobe 10]

Two trades today, both for half a point. Forgot to get screen capture.

 

Looking for a way to trade breakouts in the ES, I wait for pullbacks which I do not see as much anymore all that often. I started this thread if any of you are willing to share ideas. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/breakout-trade-strategies-es-6052.html

 

Thanks and good trading going into end of month.

 

Chris

[thalestrader 14]

are you still planning on posting about focusing on R/R like a laser beam? I look forward to it. Perhaps in another thread as it might detract from this threads intent.

 

With kind regards,

MK

 

 

Hi there,

 

No problem. I'm of from trading this week through next Tuesday so I'll post some details next week, unless I find some leisure time to post. For now, if you look at the average size of my losing trades to my winning trades, you will see that I focus on cutting my losses as short as the market allows, while letting the trade run if profitable as far as the market will allow. The key to consistent profitability is not high winning % but rather keeping the size of your losses small relative to the size of your profits.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[bathrobe 10]

Well, today I overtraded, first up, then down, then up, and on and on. I ended up -100 but I let trades run more so I am happy with that aspect of today.

[thalestrader 14]

Well, today I overtraded, first up, then down, then up, and on and on. I ended up -100 but I let trades run more so I am happy with that aspect of today.

 

 

Hi Chris,

 

You have 16 trades, with 13 profitable and only 3 losses, but you finish with a net loss. You are letting the wrong trades run.

 

I suspect, though I may be wrong, that you were never more than slightly net positive for the day. More likely you found yourself in an early hole, and your overtrading was driven by a desire to get back to even. In fact, letting your trades run was more likely enabled by a sense of desperation than discipline.

 

Your average winning trade netted just $28.85 while your average losing trade lost $158.33. Turn that around and you will need only 20% profitable trades to make you net wealthy. Failure to turn that around will lead you, quickly, to ruin.

 

It would seem that you are focused too much on winning percentage, which is the wrong thing to focus upon. You must work on cutting your losers, and letting your profits run. Think about it this way: You won 81.25% of your trades today. So whoever took the other side of your trades today only won 18.75% of his trades, but he finished with a $100 profit, while you finished with a $100 net loss.

 

I recall that you were studying Van Tharp. I know he cautions his students against falling for the "high winning %" trap. It is a tough trap to elude and elude it you must. The good news is that you can do it, but first you must decide to do so.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited May 28, 2009 by thalestrader