A Case for @ES Double Bottom...

[suriNotes 11]

Double Bottom/Double Top patterns are reliable when they are confirmed and do have high reward/risk ratios. The confirmations only occur when price reverses and trades above/below [X] bar high/low or SwingHighs/Swing Lows and exhibits strong momentum with Gaps/wide-range bars etc. There may be other forms to detect Double bottoms. Failed Double Bottoms and Double Tops may be signaling stronger prior trend and could be forming multiple bottoms/tops.

 

One of the way to trade Double Bottom/Double Tops (Irregular DT/DBs) popularized by Trader Vic's 2B detection... 2B Tops/Bottoms also fail and 2Bs tend to be more reliable in Longer-Term charts when they are forming near other support and resistance areas.

 

Presented here is a case for such 2B Top/Bottom patterns for @ES Weekly and @ES Daily Charts... Just a scenario. Also, note the third chart, where @ES Monthly retracing (near) to 100% of prior Swing.

 

Nothing signifies it is a Double Bottom, but just a case... Every major analyst is shooting for S&P 600 soon

 

On Weekly charts, @ES needs to close above 782 and on Daily Charts @ES needs to close above 752 to confirm 2Bs...

 

Regards,

Suri

[Soultrader 12]

Hi Suri,

 

Ive attached your chart with revision to indicate the confirmation point for the short. Can you please confirm if this is correct? Thanks.

[suriNotes 11]

Hi James,

 

Thanks for your post...

 

Here is a little better illustration of How 2Bs' are traded from my old files (2B Buy logic provided).

 

ES Weekly is shown with 2B Top detection and trade-setup.

 

Basic idea behind 2B Top sell is:

Wait for the bar to [CLOSE] below the breakout bar. {Confirmation Bar for 2B Top}

Sell below the [LOW] - x ticks of the Confirmation Bar. {Trade}

 

 

2B detection process and trade-triggers are little elaborate (code-wise).

 

Regards,

Suri

 

 

Hi Suri,

 

Ive attached your chart with revision to indicate the confirmation point for the short. Can you please confirm if this is correct? Thanks.

Edited March 2, 2009 by suriNotes

[steve46 12]

Hello folks

 

I think the case for a bottom of any kind is rather slim at this point.

 

Simply put I think this market is news driven

 

Rather then using Daily or Weekly charts I prefer using 570 minute bars or candles. I notice price tends to respect the two EMAs fairly consistently.

 

Looking at the chart attached one can observe the most recent wide range bar representing activity from midnight to the open on Friday 27 Feb

 

I like to calculate the midpoint of "wide range bars" and use that point as a line in the sand for a possible retracement. The horizontal lines to the left of the WRB represent an area where I might be interested in a long term swing trade. Alternatively I would see a test and failure of this area as a possible signal to short the market.

 

I like the 2b setup. Intuitively it seems right, but in the current market I notice that price tends to consolidate for extended periods of time, before showing any conviction. It is this tendency to wiggle around in a range that causes problems for some traders. I hope to avoid this by looking for confluence of several possible signals before acting.

 

For tomorrow's intraday trading the previous value area high happens to be 748. The previous value area low is located at 739.50. As I write this we are wiggling around just about 720....Depending on the overnight, news and other considerations I would be looking for a test of previous VAL to tell me what the world is thinking about the economic situation we are in. After that it is all about reacting to what I see.

 

The "other considerations" include the status of the 10yr & 30yr bonds and the Libor.

 

For what its worth, a failure test at 739 would probably mean a move down to 716.50. Failure at that point would mean a move down to 693 even.

 

Best of luck to everyone tomorrow

 

Steve

Edited March 2, 2009 by steve46

[steve46 12]

As can be seen in the attached CV chart, we stayed in a range most of the previous trading session.

 

Last evening, Asia took it on the chin with Korea and Japan dropping significantly (mostly on regional news and conjecture about US policies).

 

We bounced off of 711.25....

[zdo 20]

...speaking of 'old fashioned' patterns - there is a slight possibility of a island cluster reversal on the YM daily.

[suriNotes 11]

Almost Perfect Butterfly (Bullish) scenario for @ES

 

Regards,

Suri

[suriNotes 11]

Here is the Symmetry Analysis (Both Price and Time) for the Butterfly Pattern...

 

Regards,

Suri

[minoo 11]

Hi Suri

 

Many thanks for the previous symmetry chart

 

Could you please check my 2B-Bull trade, it paid off handsomely but not sure If I put in the order at the right level (Green line 741.25) ?

Did your indicator plot this on 610Tick or 2minute chart ?

For some reason its easier for me to spot 2B-Buys rather than 2B-Sells

Would you have taken it if your context (Fib Grids) didnot agree, as everything was heading south ?

 

I took snapshot just before and after it triggered, please refer to my chart and comment

 

Many Thanks

Minoo

[elovemer 10]

....great work suri....

...here is a pf of the bull M

[elovemer 10]

.... suri.... you da man

....great work suri....

...here is a pf of the bull M

[suriNotes 11]

Thanks elovemer!!!

 

Suri

 

.... suri.... you da man

[suriNotes 11]

Here is the update for @es Symmetry and Butterfly Pattern with Target 820.

Also note the number of bars to reach the target is 12 with a 76.48% of prior swing price range.

 

Regards,

Suri

 

Here is the Symmetry Analysis (Both Price and Time) for the Butterfly Pattern...

 

Regards,

Suri

[suriNotes 11]

Harmonic Patterns..

 

Regards,

Suri

[suriNotes 11]

ES 41-day Cycle chart...

 

Regards,

Suri

[Tasuki 10]

Suri, what's the deal with 41 days? Looks interesting, but is there any rhyme or reason to a 41 day cycle?

Tx, Taz

[suriNotes 11]

Hi Taz,

 

Thanks for your post...

 

I am not a big follower of Cycle theories, but

I noticed the symmetry of swings and thought

it was an interesting find....

 

JM Hurst talks about 40-period cycle (and others) to describe trends

in his book "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing"

and 1/2 cycle (20 period) lengths to find targets/patterns etc.

 

Regards,

Suri

 

 

 

 

Suri, what's the deal with 41 days? Looks interesting, but is there any rhyme or reason to a 41 day cycle?

Tx, Taz

[elovemer 10]

suri is da man

 

.... all the pullbacks on the daily chart... including this last one..... are the exacty same percentage-wise....

.... when measured from the same starting point