Pure VSA

[humdesggg 10]

Well Sevensa

 

You are bold enough to meet my expectations. I view this thread as an educational thread and therefore, will leftside, hindsight analysis has limitations, it has tremendous educational value for me. These patterns repeat themselves again and again, and therefore knowing my shortcomings on hindsight, helps me to improve on them. Living in east africa, i dont have the resources to pay 4k for a tradeguider seminar. Plus I lack the time resources to trade fulltime vsa patterns and upload my bar by bar review. You will remember i have hinted for a lieve vsa room, but the responses have been varied.

 

Your comments are like a goldmine to me. I can reflect on what may be divergence of opinions between us, and obviously, since u are a veteran, i have to give the benefit of doubt to you. You may have access to more VSA resources or might have paid more attention by reading MTM or Untoled Secrets more times than me.

 

I am 200% appreciative of your comments and will take the afternoon to look at them and study the divergence between us.

 

The lifeline I mentioned is real and there is indeed a random contest where u trade futures. VSA, I believe, is a solid method for trading successfully for 1 hour period using even the noise on 1m. the advantage of 1m, at least for me, is closer stops.

[humdesggg 10]

my trading station, where i am based, has low internet and sometimes the power goes down. last night, i was unable to attached a 2nd chart showing the corresponding bars on my platform. i will be trading similar VSA patterns on Tuesday 12 may '09 , and will take handwritten notes of the setups in the hour slot where I will trade for the contest.

 

The attached chart shows variance between the volumes and spread on my platform and the chart program ensign with transact datafeed. obviously, the platform chart and prices assume supremacy.

 

Again, this leftside, hindsight analysis helps to reduce errors of analysis and helps improve pattern recognition in realtime, as the VSA patterns repeat themselves every hour of the trading day.

[humdesggg 10]

You are quite right. Some of the best traders using VSA I have met trade FX with VSA. Many of the posts on the VSA II thread detail the use of VSA in the currencies.

 

Some of the material by posters like PP and others have been withdrawn. Plus some of the early big names have either moved on, or are reluctant to posts on VSA part 3. Is there a way we can encourage the gr8 names of the past to accompany us on the way to VSA part 4,5 to part 10.

[Eiger 10]

Some ideas on Background

 

Keep in mind that you want to frame out the market and then anticipate what price and volume may do. Never predict. When you anticipate likely scenarios and you later see a scenario unfold you are better prepared to take appropriate action. (Also, note the plural of scenarios - this I important because if you have only one scenario, you are predicting )

 

Hope this is helpful,

Eiger

Edited May 10, 2009 by Eiger

[sevensa 10]

Well Sevensa

 

You are bold enough to meet my expectations. I view this thread as an educational thread and therefore, will leftside, hindsight analysis has limitations, it has tremendous educational value for me. These patterns repeat themselves again and again, and therefore knowing my shortcomings on hindsight, helps me to improve on them. Living in east africa, i dont have the resources to pay 4k for a tradeguider seminar. Plus I lack the time resources to trade fulltime vsa patterns and upload my bar by bar review. You will remember i have hinted for a lieve vsa room, but the responses have been varied.

 

Your comments are like a goldmine to me. I can reflect on what may be divergence of opinions between us, and obviously, since u are a veteran, i have to give the benefit of doubt to you. You may have access to more VSA resources or might have paid more attention by reading MTM or Untoled Secrets more times than me.

 

I am 200% appreciative of your comments and will take the afternoon to look at them and study the divergence between us.

 

The lifeline I mentioned is real and there is indeed a random contest where u trade futures. VSA, I believe, is a solid method for trading successfully for 1 hour period using even the noise on 1m. the advantage of 1m, at least for me, is closer stops.

 

Thank you for your kind words. I am by no means an expert and know just enough to get by and to do something that works for me. Also don't assume that when my view disagree with yours, that I am right and you are wrong. There are many ways to be "right" and you don't have to do what I, or anyone else is doing. Just do what make sense and feel right to you. If the trades you called out make sense to you and is something you can detect in real time, then by all means don't change your view of them just because I wouldn't have selected them for my trading patterns.

[Eiger 10]

Follow-up on using the Background

 

I mentioned over the weekend in my last post above that supply was present at a confluence of resistance and that a gap down on the open today leading the market lower was something we could anticipate. The market did gap lower at the open, indicating further weakness. A patient waiting until the market retested the last swing high of the overnight session led to a nice UT on the 5-minute chart and good short entry. I would now anticipate the market moving down first to today's low and (assuming demand to be absent at this level) then to the obvious support level at A.

 

Framing the background in this manner helps you trade better today. Seeing weakness appear in the background, anticipating different likely scenarios, and then seeing one of those scenarios take place allows you to pull the trigger on a choice trade when you see the VSA setup occur. Simple, straightforward, and profitable.

 

Hope this is helpful,

 

Eiger

[Eiger 10]

Follow-up

 

As anticipated, the market fell back to the low of the day, though there wasn't enough supply present to take it lower. Again, this is using the background, including the various levels of obvious support & resistance along with the notion of anticipation rather than prediction as a way to view the market.

 

Hope this is helpful,

 

Eiger

[MANTRA 10]

hello all

 

charts from today

 

BACKGROUND: I expected higher pricess in accordance with the reasons below

60 min. TF: market made new low, but was stopped on Support level

15 min. TF: bar 1 - high volume, close in the middle of the bar, next two bars no supply

5 min. TF: bars between bar 1 & 2 no selling presure

 

bar before bar A - pushing through supply

bar A- high volume, close off the high

bar 3- test bar, did not take this trade because of bar A

bar 4 & 5- high volume closes off the highs

bar 6&7 - tests - I did not take this trade because of bars 4 & 5

 

Once I see the bars like A, 4, 5 I always expect change of the trend or congestion...this is my biggest problem...can someone advise?

5tf.doc

15tf.doc

60tf.doc

[kuky969 10]

Hi Mantra

Yes I have same problem ,yesterdays afternoon uptrend on ES 5 min didnt give me any substantial VSA signal to entry long . I just waited when it rebounce from some resistence and give me signal short. I was very surprised that ES regain all losses in afternoon. Eiger did you make some trade ???

[Eiger 10]

hello all

 

charts from today

 

BACKGROUND: I expected higher pricess in accordance with the reasons below

60 min. TF: market made new low, but was stopped on Support level

15 min. TF: bar 1 - high volume, close in the middle of the bar, next two bars no supply

5 min. TF: bars between bar 1 & 2 no selling presure

 

bar before bar A - pushing through supply

bar A- high volume, close off the high

bar 3- test bar, did not take this trade because of bar A

bar 4 & 5- high volume closes off the highs

bar 6&7 - tests - I did not take this trade because of bars 4 & 5

 

Once I see the bars like A, 4, 5 I always expect change of the trend or congestion...this is my biggest problem...can someone advise?

 

You are able to identify lots of the VSA indications. Nice job. The next step is to put these together a little more coherently and frame the market.

 

Here are some ideas to consider:

 

Background - 60-min chart:

 

Note the area circled in black. It is at the top of the trend (though we know it is at the top only in hindsight). Compare this to the area circled in green. They look very similar, don't they? There are very key differences, however.

 

Take a close look at the bars in the green circle area. Whenever price dipped lower, it immediately rebounded. In most cases, volume came in on these bars (green arrows). Professional money was buying anytime the market dipped lower. We know this from the volume. Lower prices were being rejected. The background was very bullish at this point.

 

Now, look at the black circle area. Although it looks similar to the casual eye, it is very different. Note that wide spread bars are no longer dipping lower, closing higher. They stay on the lows and volume comes in. This is supply present. I noted this weakness in the ES a couple of days ago. Larger interests were unloading into the buying until the buying was finally exhausted.

 

Also on the 60-minute, the circled area is a distribution area and represents a "cause" of selling in that area, the "effect" of which is likely to be lower prices to some degreee. That degree can be estimated via S/R levels and a point & figure chart. We are seeing that cause unfold now.

 

So, the overall background is down. But there will, of course, be rallies intraday, but short-lived "bear traps" designed to attract buyers. Taking long positions with this background in mind are best kept to limited objectives.

 

15-min chart:

 

You identified some stopping volume at 1 on your chart. The very next bar was a Test, and the bar after that was unable to fall lower, so the odds were good for a rally.

 

5-minute chart:

 

The stopping volume on the 15-minute chart was climactic on the 5-min at 1 with a Spring following at 2. So, we are looking at a rally of some degree.

 

Price drifted up in a small uptrend with higher bottoms, and then tested (T) before going up. At Q, the market rallies above the climactic bar at 1, an indication demand is in control. In the green circle area note that each time the market dips lower, it closes back on its highs -- this is the same behavior we saw in the green circle area on the 60-minute chart. The market is always repeating itself, it is just that the intensities always vary. Note also that price is holding it's gains on top of the last congestion area (resistence then turns to support now). So, we are bullish.

 

Price rallies through the green circle congestion at R and then hits some supply at A. We know it is supply because of the volume and rather poor close. The very next bar (#3) is a Test, falling lower than the low at A and closing on it's highs on light volume. This test respects the new support level and indicates that the supply seen on A isn't significant. I like these indications for entry. Next bar is up.

 

Bars 4 & 5 are up on good spread, but the high volume and poor close show supply. This is the highest volume since the rally began and indicates a portential climax at this point and danger to the bulls. Bar 6 is No Demand further adding to the weakness now emerging. But the bar following 6 dips lower and has a good close and the next bar, 7, is a Test, so we can anticipate higher prices, which follow.

 

At S, we again see heavy volume and a poor close, then a large spread down bar with sustained volume closing on its lows. This is a 2-Bar UT and completes the weakness we began to see about a half hour earlier. Although aggressive, I like short entries on UTs and 2-Bar UTs. Keeping in mind that the overall background is still bearish (60-min chart), longs should not overstay their positions and we can anticipate more follow-through to the downside tomorrow.

 

Hope this is helpful,

 

Eiger

[kuky969 10]

 

Background - 60-min chart:

 

Note the area circled in black. It is at the top of the trend (though we know it is at the top only in hindsight). Compare this to the area circled in green. They look very similar, don't they? There are very key differences, however.

 

Take a close look at the bars in the green circle area. Whenever price dipped lower, it immediately rebounded. In most cases, volume came in on these bars (green arrows). Professional money was buying anytime the market dipped lower. We know this from the volume. Lower prices were being rejected. The background was very bullish at this point.

 

Now, look at the black circle area. Although it looks similar to the casual eye, it is very different. Note that wide spread bars are no longer dipping lower, closing higher. They stay on the lows and volume comes in. This is supply present. I noted this weakness in the ES a couple of days ago. Larger interests were unloading into the buying until the buying was finally exhausted.

 

Also on the 60-minute, the circled area is a distribution area and represents a "cause" of selling in that area, the "effect" of which is likely to be lower prices to some degreee. That degree can be estimated via S/R levels and a point & figure chart. We are seeing that cause unfold now.

 

 

 

Eiger

 

Can we say that in accumulation area every dip of price is buying by pros ???

 

AND

Can we say (vice versa) in distribution area if price a bit rise that every rise is selling by pros ???

[Eiger 10]

Can we say that in accumulation area every dip of price is buying by pros ???

 

AND

Can we say (vice versa) in distribution area if price a bit rise that every rise is selling by pros ???

 

In both areas there was obviously higher volume that came in at these points. I just think of it as Tom Williams and Richard Wyckoff would view it - if there is large volume then large operators and professional interests are in the market and i want to ride along on their coattails. Both are/were keenly interested in the professional trader.

[humdesggg 10]

I traded a short around 8 today, and exited at 9 when i saw stopping volume. the rest of trades are commented for educational purposes only.

 

1. 2 bar bottom reversal. sweet spot to initiate longs.

2. Uptrust, a nice spot to short this thing.

3. Strong close. A down bar closing in upper range is a duck sitting on the fence.

4. Test meaning Smart money has withdrawn, leaving retailers directionless. It is a SOS. a close below the low of 3 would be bearish.

5. Stopping volume. a High probability to go long.

6. No demand calling into question upside momemtum. the ultra high volume 2 bars before 6 decreased. Markets hate ultra high volume on up bars, as it harms their own selling.

7. Uptrust to initiate shorts.

8. Weakness creeping

9. Stopping volume.

[humdesggg 10]

I traded a short around 8 today, and exited at 9 when i saw stopping volume. the rest of trades are commented for educational purposes only.

 

1. 2 bar bottom reversal. sweet spot to initiate longs.

2. Uptrust, a nice spot to short this thing.

3. Strong close. A down bar closing in upper range is a duck sitting on the fence.

4. Test meaning Smart money has withdrawn, leaving retailers directionless. It is a SOS. a close below the low of 3 would be bearish.

5. Stopping volume. a High probability to go long.

6. No demand calling into question upside momemtum. the ultra high volume 2 bars before 6 decreased. Markets hate ultra high volume on up bars, as it harms their own selling.

7. Uptrust to initiate shorts.

8. Weakness creeping

9. Stopping volume.

[kuky969 10]

Today trade

background: 1 H

- price was near of supplly line , in area yesterdays big supplly,yesterdays high, support is now resistence, trend is down

http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1242333696_80_UploadImage.png

 

5 min:

 

1 ....supply

2..... price heading to demand line on higher volume ,I expected attempt for break demand line

 

price make lower low , a bit breaks demand line

 

3 .....supply entry

4.... no demand after a bit break of demand line

 

for exit - target i use VWAP(is not in picture) ....on 889 ,very nice exit

 

http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1242334612_18_UploadImage.png

 

 

timing of entry short : 500V chart

 

http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1242334828_87_UploadImage.png

 

MOST IMPORTANT IS PATIENCE AND WAIT FOR "BEST SETUP" .......I always keep in mind

Edited May 14, 2009 by kuky969

[humdesggg 10]

I will upload my chart showing the trade from Ninjatrader a little latter, to show that it was not hindsight analysis, but I valid entry and exit on VSA principles

[MANTRA 10]

today's trade

 

background

60TF- UP trend, market is going to reach rezistance, so I expect that market will touch rezistance, there is a coinsidence with rezistence and upper channel as well, but there is enough place for my profit target

 

5TF

bar1 - Jump across a creek

market declines with accordance of low wolume, support is tested with low volume

bar2- test bar (narrow spread, very low volume, down bar) = trigger bar

[humdesggg 10]

Mantra, You spotted it correctly. I noted another high prob setup, that I labelled 3 on your chart. Its based on Tom's statement that decreasing volume on increasing prices is bearish. I marked it 3.

[MANTRA 10]

bar3- more important for me is VOLUME along with Close of this bar and support very close to this bar, for me it means potential distribution, I would not ''short'' this market based on the lower volume on bar3 compare to bar1. I would wait for distribution and short the market once I see upthrust + No demand bar. But it's me....

[ESTRDR 10]

just my 2cents for now

 

15m nice thrust on sup. selling climax

 

 

5m same picture

 

 

 

60m showing uptrend + second nice bottom reversal like anticipated after opening. also see 2 thrusts/tests during globex.

 

Edited May 22, 2009 by ESTRDR

[sleepy v2 10]

oops ... posted in wrong forum...

Edited May 25, 2009 by sleepy v2

[Romulan 10]

I have just started investigating VSA and have started with this thread (per a suggestion I saw on another thread). I have started out by downloading VSA Summary I and the Master the Markets. I have printed out Eiger's first few charts and his comments and I find these extremely helpfull.

 

However, I get lost on some of the "buzz words" that are used by Eiger/VSA. I see references to "hidden test", "hidden upthrust", etc. I have searched thru the PDF files that I downloaded and can find no reference there.

 

Is there a document here (or anywhere) that defines the jargon that VSA uses?

[crabbydog 10]

I have just started investigating VSA and have started with this thread (per a suggestion I saw on another thread). I have started out by downloading VSA Summary I and the Master the Markets. I have printed out Eiger's first few charts and his comments and I find these extremely helpfull.

 

However, I get lost on some of the "buzz words" that are used by Eiger/VSA. I see references to "hidden test", "hidden upthrust", etc. I have searched thru the PDF files that I downloaded and can find no reference there.

 

Is there a document here (or anywhere) that defines the jargon that VSA uses?

 

I think hidden upthrust may be eiger's own jargon, or perhaps its from earlier wyckoff. I think i saw it defined here once and a search through the forums may help. Its not worth getting too hung up on such jargon nor to spend too much analysing every price bar. You are trying to gauge overall buying and selling pressure and look for setups in relation to that.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I think hidden upthrust may be eiger's own jargon, or perhaps its from earlier wyckoff. I think i saw it defined here once and a search through the forums may help. Its not worth getting too hung up on such jargon nor to spend too much analysing every price bar. You are trying to gauge overall buying and selling pressure and look for setups in relation to that.

 

There are no mentions of anything "hidden" in Wyckoff. Williams does, however, refer to, for example, "hidden buying" in Undeclared Secrets.

 

Since Master the Markets is essentially promotional literature for a software company and The Undeclared Secrets That Drive the Stock Market is Williams' original work, it might be better to rely on Undeclared Secrets so that everybody is on the same page.

[crabbydog 10]

There are no mentions of anything "hidden" in Wyckoff. Williams does, however, refer to, for example, "hidden buying" in Undeclared Secrets.

 

Since Master the Markets is essentially promotional literature for a software company and The Undeclared Secrets That Drive the Stock Market is Williams' original work, it might be better to rely on Undeclared Secrets so that everybody is on the same page.

 

I remember years ago that some people said that Undeclared secrets was just shilling for the software I think now however its very hard to get hold of Undeclared secrets, I lost my copy somewhere and its not in print now..