Pure VSA

[kuky969 10]

Hi Eigeer

 

This is my 4th week on VSA, and I am still to watch a couple of real good videos to improve on the VSA work.

 

 

HUMDE

This is my 50-60 week in VSA and I am still newbie. My personal experience:Take all Eigers posts with pictures and make one big text document and read ,read ,read it ...everything what you consider as important write down and before start of trading day read it (every day took time about 1 hour) and every day live watch for market and compare with knowledge, make paper trading ( I did not any backtest just live chart paper trades) ,every succesful paper trade print chart ,make annotation and this charts study (before start of market). Every day same. Of course most posts I learn by heart but repeat studing every day.

I also studied a lot of Wyckoffs materials from Wyckoff thread,and most posts in threads VSA I and II + SR levels+ supply /demand lines. Big problem for me is always management of open trade. So trading is easy but first you must learn it - it is hard.

[Eiger 10]

HUMDE

This is my 50-60 week in VSA and I am still newbie. My personal experience:Take all Eigers posts with pictures and make one big text document and read ,read ,read it ...everything what you consider as important write down and before start of trading day read it (every day took time about 1 hour) and every day live watch for market and compare with knowledge, make paper trading ( I did not any backtest just live chart paper trades) ,every succesful paper trade print chart ,make annotation and this charts study (before start of market). Every day same. Of course most posts I learn by heart but repeat studing every day.

I also studied a lot of Wyckoffs materials from Wyckoff thread,and most posts in threads VSA I and II + SR levels+ supply /demand lines. Big problem for me is always management of open trade. So trading is easy but first you must learn it - it is hard.

 

You are doing something psychologists call deliberate practice - making a huge, very focused effort, day-after-day, and doing the things most people will not do. This level of "smart practice" leads to high levels of performance whether you are training to be an Olympic athlete, a surgeon, or a trader.

 

Eiger

[kuky969 10]

Just today I realize that spring has not to be in low of day and after climax. Market gave me chance capitalize on it.

My explanation

1 .... spring

2 ...test supply - no lowest volume from last 3 bars but very low

3... demand entry

 

long after break top of test bar

 

http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1238610445_76_UploadImage.png

[MANTRA 10]

backround- 60TF UP trend, no selling preassure when marker reach Support line

 

I was looking for long trigers

 

1 - pushing through supply??? - upthrust to the left - the reason why market hesitate to go UP?

2 - test bar - enter UP

 

second chance to take a trade while two narrowing spread bars with decreased volume were reaching TL

[kuky969 10]

60 minutes TF - uptrend ,so long trades has bigger potential of profit,market over night holds yesterdays gains.

 

1- some demand entry , next bar UP, spring bellow range of premarket

2- move price from dangerous place on low volume- supply disappear

3 - test but didnt confirmed

D - low bar higher volume ,after this bar seems that price will go low but response on next bar didnt confirm

4 - price dont want go higher - 2 times bigger volume as previously bar and narrower spread, down bar ,some supply

5 - test (or no supply)

6 - demand entry , up bar bigger volume as previously ,entry long after break of top test bar

 

next bars strenghts, higher high,higher low,higher close , rising volume but on high of day (so far) 7,8,9 supply entry

 

A,B - no demand

C - supply entry , short after break low of B, divergence TICK , bounce from high of day but unfortunately little SL

 

Now after trade I think that in C shoul be more volume for nice " supply entry" and in such poor volume market is not good idea entry to market

 

http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1239994057_86_UploadImage.png

[kuky969 10]

I think big mistake was C bar - is not supply entry , is down bar on smallest volume from last 3 bars - it is no supply

[ckait 10]

Just curious if anyone had actual trade results for using straight VSA trading ES mini on an irntraday basis using a 3 min time frame? Not that im not a fan I love the concepts and many are spot on. The only issue Im adressing is the way price is pushed around on low volume by the pros to shake you out of good trade locations. During the day after the initial drive away from the opening range, when the "smart money" has left the market who is it making your life miserable ? Is it just the eb and flow of normal trade or something a little more sinister? Probably a little of both . And do you stay in the trades your in when the shift has occured or do you let the runners go? Could be an interesting side bar if there is any input . Hope a few posts could get something going.

[speres 10]

Just curious if anyone had actual trade results for using straight VSA trading ES mini on an irntraday basis using a 3 min time frame? Not that im not a fan I love the concepts and many are spot on. The only issue Im adressing is the way price is pushed around on low volume by the pros to shake you out of good trade locations. During the day after the initial drive away from the opening range, when the "smart money" has left the market who is it making your life miserable ? Is it just the eb and flow of normal trade or something a little more sinister? Probably a little of both . And do you stay in the trades your in when the shift has occured or do you let the runners go? Could be an interesting side bar if there is any input . Hope a few posts could get something going.

 

I think you just answered your own question....... also, you need to keep an eye on the higher tf's, you see theres all different players, on all the different tf's...

[crabbydog 10]

You are off to a good start. Four weeks isn't much time, so you can expect more work and effort ahead.

 

A few things you can do that might be helpful. First, understand the difference between Tests and No Demands. Tests disconfirm the presence of supply; No Demand disconfirms the presence of demand. You seem to have them confused. Tests do not show no demand; they indicate a lack of supply.

 

Try hard to see the bigger picture. The bar at 4 was less a 'break-out' than it was the presence of supply. This became evident at 7, and especially at 10 and the next bar when supply finally overcame demand and took the market down. Understanding the background will keep you from making poor trade selection as in 9. Staying too focused on the bars leaves you missing the forest for the trees and encourages trading random patterns. Strive to understand the background.

 

Eiger

 

Curious as to why you define Bar 4 as 'presence of supply'? It broke out of the congestion before it on higher volume and the close was in the support third of the bar. Did you see it as supply based on later bars ? Or if you saw that bar as it happened woul youn have thought the it showed presence of supply.

 

I can see why 7 would be supply.

 

But again I cannot see why 10 would be supply coming in, as it agian busted above the congestion to the left, albeit on no particular volume.

 

regards :crap:

[bbj_anchor 10]

Just today I realize that spring has not to be in low of day and after climax. Market gave me chance capitalize on it.

My explanation

1 .... spring

2 ...test supply - no lowest volume from last 3 bars but very low

3... demand entry

 

long after break top of test bar

 

http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1238610445_76_UploadImage.png

 

 

Bar after #1 appears to be a downthrust! I find thrusts to be really huge indicator. Direction WILL change, but making $$$ could be delayed a bit as Bigs accumulate before driving market up again. This time frame that isnt long for 30pts! VSA awesome same anytimeframe! Use look at multiple time frames if good also in longer, indication of stronger move. IMHO

[humdesggg 10]

Anatomy of afternoon session on YM

 

1. Up bar closing on the low range,on volume higher than previous 5 bars,is bearish and a strong short signal.

2. No demand up bar,with narrow spread, is bearish. Note all the following bars are down on low volume, a sign of strength.

3. Climatic action. A wide spread up bar closing on the low, on high volume is bearish and sign of weakness.

4. A down bar closing in the middle, on volume higher than previous 2 bars, is bullish. The next bar confirms the bullish reversal, by opening below previous close and closing above high

5. A down bar with narrow spead on volume lower than previous 2bars is a test in a rising market. A nice safe haven for entering longs.

6. A test, another safe spot for entering long or halving a profitable position.

7. An up bar on narrow spread, on volume lower than previous 2 bars, is highly bearish. A duck sitting on a fence i.e. an easy target.

8. A down bar on narrow spead, closing in the middle, on volume lower than previous 2 bars, that’s a sign of strength.

9. An up bar on narrow spread, on volume lower than previous 2 bars, is a sign of weakness. A sweet spot to short. Note the weakness in the background i.e. previous bars closing on the low or middle

10. Climatic buying action or stopping volume.

 

any comments welcome

[bbj_anchor 10]

Anatomy of afternoon session on YM

 

1. Up bar closing on the low range,on volume higher than previous 5 bars,is bearish and a strong short signal.

2. No demand up bar,with narrow spread, is bearish. Note all the following bars are down on low volume, a sign of strength.

3. Climatic action. A wide spread up bar closing on the low, on high volume is bearish and sign of weakness.

4. A down bar closing in the middle, on volume higher than previous 2 bars, is bullish. The next bar confirms the bullish reversal, by opening below previous close and closing above high

5. A down bar with narrow spead on volume lower than previous 2bars is a test in a rising market. A nice safe haven for entering longs.

6. A test, another safe spot for entering long or halving a profitable position.

7. An up bar on narrow spread, on volume lower than previous 2 bars, is highly bearish. A duck sitting on a fence i.e. an easy target.

8. A down bar on narrow spead, closing in the middle, on volume lower than previous 2 bars, that’s a sign of strength.

9. An up bar on narrow spread, on volume lower than previous 2 bars, is a sign of weakness. A sweet spot to short. Note the weakness in the background i.e. previous bars closing on the low or middle

10. Climatic buying action or stopping volume.

 

any comments welcome

 

Seems to me #10-1 is stop volume 10 is a huge downthrust. This (10) would be time to go long? BIGS start all over again (seems often the pattern with a flattening out for a bit somewhere soon to buy some supply to finish the mark up again!).

[crabbydog 10]

Anatomy of afternoon session on YM

 

1. Up bar closing on the low range,on volume higher than previous 5 bars,is bearish and a strong short signal.

2. No demand up bar,with narrow spread, is bearish. Note all the following bars are down on low volume, a sign of strength.

3. Climatic action. A wide spread up bar closing on the low, on high volume is bearish and sign of weakness.

4. A down bar closing in the middle, on volume higher than previous 2 bars, is bullish. The next bar confirms the bullish reversal, by opening below previous close and closing above high

5. A down bar with narrow spead on volume lower than previous 2bars is a test in a rising market. A nice safe haven for entering longs.

6. A test, another safe spot for entering long or halving a profitable position.

7. An up bar on narrow spread, on volume lower than previous 2 bars, is highly bearish. A duck sitting on a fence i.e. an easy target.

8. A down bar on narrow spead, closing in the middle, on volume lower than previous 2 bars, that’s a sign of strength.

9. An up bar on narrow spread, on volume lower than previous 2 bars, is a sign of weakness. A sweet spot to short. Note the weakness in the background i.e. previous bars closing on the low or middle

10. Climatic buying action or stopping volume.

 

any comments welcome

 

Could you define what you mean by a 'down bar' and 'up bar'? I looked at 2 and it closed on its lows, which seems to me makes it a down bar. But I am guessing the terms down bar/up bar doesn't actually mean that?

 

Also, on point 4 you mention 'opening below previous close' but for my limited understanding of VSA the open is ignored (a VSA chart doesn't show the open, just HLC).

 

Thanks if you can clear up my confusion on this

[kuky969 10]

Did you make some trades during last week in ES. ????I think that was a little opportunities take trade according to VSA

[2trade 10]

Could you define what you mean by a 'down bar' and 'up bar'? I looked at 2 and it closed on its lows, which seems to me makes it a down bar. But I am guessing the terms down bar/up bar doesn't actually mean that?

 

Also, on point 4 you mention 'opening below previous close' but for my limited understanding of VSA the open is ignored (a VSA chart doesn't show the open, just HLC).

 

Thanks if you can clear up my confusion on this

 

 

 

8 is an upbar--- 9 is a down bar for close compared to previous bars close ---

[Mini J 10]

Hi Eiger,

 

Is stopping volume = selling climax?

[humdesggg 10]

Commentary of 7 May 2009 price action in EURUSD 3 min. 5-8 EST

 

I have read on the other VSA part 2 thread of a ultra negative posters, claiming u cant trade the forex with VSA. While I remember clearly that the context and background are important, as Eiger advocates, I have just quickly annotated today’s price action on the EURUSD to show the doubting Thomas where the high probability setups came up on the 3min chart.

 

On the advice of our friend Tasuki, I have put vertical lines for easier reading.

 

1. TEST. This is testing the previous high volume area at X.

2. SHAKE-OUT. A sign of strength but a not a good risk to reward trade given the spread.

3. TEST. Testing on volume < previous 2 bars. Nice sweet to initiate a long given strength in background.

4. NO DEMAND. Given the strength in background, it’s a warning sign to tighten up stops when long. Not in nice spot for shorts as there is no weakness.

5. 2 Bar top reversal on volume < 2 previous bar. Sweet spot for shorting.

6. NO DEMAND. Nice place to short.

7. UPTRUST. This is the highest probability setup on this chart to short.

8. Bottom reversal. Demand exceeding supply.

9. TEST. Testing to see if selling is flushed out.

[Eiger 10]

...

Is stopping volume = selling climax?

 

Very similar. You can think of a climax as stopping a trend and stopping volume as stopping a move. I think Wyckoff would have called stopping volume a 'minor climax.' In any event, one of the characteristics of both is a sudden expansion of volume.

[Eiger 10]

...

 

I have read on the other VSA part 2 thread of a ultra negative posters, claiming u cant trade the forex with VSA. ....

 

You are quite right. Some of the best traders using VSA I have met trade FX with VSA. Many of the posts on the VSA II thread detail the use of VSA in the currencies.

[humdesggg 10]

Eiger

 

Would u let me know how my vsa commentary fares. I can always do with a little feedback from a grt8 VSA Enthusiasts?

 

The only problem with forex volume, is that I dont personally trust the reliability of forex data on metatrader platform. malcolm does a gr8 job trading the gbpjpy with volume data on metatrader on the forexfactory thread. for me, volume data provided by FXCM on ensign is much more reliable. However,malcolm floats his boat with mt4 volume data and it works.

 

of course, if u see stopping volume or climatic action on mt4 or ensign with fxcm, it represents the same thing: either a dramatic reversal will ensue.

 

a rose by any other name ....

 

 

pST!. I think I have paid a little of my dues to grapping VSA. Altough I havent read MTM, I have read Untold Secrets 4 times. Plus I have watch the free videos at VSA Club. But more importantly, I do take Eiger's charts on this pure VSA thread, and without looking at his comments, I write my own comments of volume spread action, and then compare it to his notes. where there is divergence, i know i need mo work on that aspects. fortunately, VSA has distinct patterns for up and down markets and that helps to shorten the learning curve.

[crabbydog 10]

Eiger

 

pST!. I think I have paid a little of my dues to grapping VSA. Altough I havent read MTM, I have read Untold Secrets 4 times.

 

Forexfactory also has a large VSA thread.

 

MTM is the same as Untold Secrets, it's just a later version, and I think its more biased towards Tradeguider and somewhat restructured.

 

Yahoo has a group called wyckoff-smi which you MAY find useful, but there is a lot of noise and not sure how much real value. Some useful gems there I guess.

[kuky969 10]

Forexfactory also has a large VSA thread.

 

MTM is the same as Untold Secrets, it's just a later version, and I think its more biased towards Tradeguider and somewhat restructured.

 

Yahoo has a group called wyckoff-smi which you MAY find useful, but there is a lot of noise and not sure how much real value. Some useful gems there I guess.

 

Yes but if I can write my personal opinion,no offence,this thread in FF has poor quality compared with TL threads . People there always try invent some magic study and pure VSA posts are just from a few traders,maybe just from one nick: "malcolmb". He is trading forex and his posts are very useful.

Edited May 9, 2009 by kuky969

[crabbydog 10]

Yes but if I can write my personal opinion,no offence,this thread in FF has poor quality compared with TL threads . People there always try invent some magic study and pure VSA posts are just from a few traders,maybe just from one nick: "malcolmb". He is trading forex and I his posts are very useful.

 

I agree the quality here is generally higher, although there are some useful posts in FF too. Some others than Malcolmb are quite good. Discussions get a little too indicator heavy, rather than pure VSA.

 

The best posts have found anywhere are here from eiger, I think if you read his posts, especially his detailed analyses coupled with MTM you will do well.

 

I can read the most obvious bars, but still struggle with background. Still, since focusing on this I have made some money instead of losing it.

 

Good Trading

[humdesggg 10]

Hi folks, I have selected the Swiss futures (6sm9) for 7 May 2009, the trading session from 17h00 to 18h00 ( 11 EST to 12 EST). Imagine, for the sake of game play, that we have a couple of margin calls on our account, and a close buddy throws you a lifeline by giving you, say 500$, to trade for an hour and u keep all the profits. From this background, I have thrown a challenge at VSA to help me analyse the setups occurring on the basis of spread and volume action on this 1 min chart. These are the patterns I see in this 1 hour time period.

1. Uptrust. Consider weakness in background and that volume is decreasing in next bars, showing that professional selling took place on this up bar.

2. Uptrust. This is another uptrust in a weak market.

3. No Demand. Another high probability pattern for shorting.

4. Uptrust. Volume increase but effort is not matching volume, as price close in middle, spelling more downside.

5. No Demand. This is a shades of gray, but it has volume has than previous 2 bars and it is good candidate for a short. This bar;s high fails at the low of 1, converting that level from support to resistance.

6. Bottom Reversal. Volume dries up compared to previous bar and close is higher too.

7. No Demand. As we are in a rising market, its easier to spot the lack of supply.

8. Stopping volume. A down bar closing in the middle on average volume.

9. No Demand. Back to back no demand bars but the lack of follow through on following bars.

10. Top reversal. This is a two bar top reversal on decreasing volume.

11. Stopping volume. Volume is less than average, but its still match the stopping volume pattern.

12. No Demand. This bar setup match a two bar top reversal. However, volume less than 2 previous bars qualifies this bar as a decent No demand bar.

13. No Demand. This is our bread and butter setup for shorting failed tops.

14. Test. This is testing the high volume of 11.

I wanted to go a step further, and from this setup, select the highest probability 5 setups that I could have taken. The highest probability is informed by the fact that our stop would be 3 pip below the low or high of the previous bar, and it would be pattern that a professional VSA trader would not skipped. Bars 3, 6, 7, 10 and 12 come across as the highest probability setups on this chart.

 

Please let me know which 5 setups on this bar would be your highest probability setups. If possible, post your own 1 min chart from your datafeed, so that I can compare which datafeed has more reliable volume for the Swiss future. I am using ensign with Transact on this chart.

[sevensa 10]

Hi folks, I have selected the Swiss futures (6sm9) for 7 May 2009, the trading session from 17h00 to 18h00 ( 11 EST to 12 EST). Imagine, for the sake of game play, that we have a couple of margin calls on our account, and a close buddy throws you a lifeline by giving you, say 500$, to trade for an hour and u keep all the profits. From this background, I have thrown a challenge at VSA to help me analyse the setups occurring on the basis of spread and volume action on this 1 min chart. These are the patterns I see in this 1 hour time period.

1. Uptrust. Consider weakness in background and that volume is decreasing in next bars, showing that professional selling took place on this up bar.

2. Uptrust. This is another uptrust in a weak market.

3. No Demand. Another high probability pattern for shorting.

4. Uptrust. Volume increase but effort is not matching volume, as price close in middle, spelling more downside.

5. No Demand. This is a shades of gray, but it has volume has than previous 2 bars and it is good candidate for a short. This bar;s high fails at the low of 1, converting that level from support to resistance.

6. Bottom Reversal. Volume dries up compared to previous bar and close is higher too.

7. No Demand. As we are in a rising market, its easier to spot the lack of supply.

8. Stopping volume. A down bar closing in the middle on average volume.

9. No Demand. Back to back no demand bars but the lack of follow through on following bars.

10. Top reversal. This is a two bar top reversal on decreasing volume.

11. Stopping volume. Volume is less than average, but its still match the stopping volume pattern.

12. No Demand. This bar setup match a two bar top reversal. However, volume less than 2 previous bars qualifies this bar as a decent No demand bar.

13. No Demand. This is our bread and butter setup for shorting failed tops.

14. Test. This is testing the high volume of 11.

I wanted to go a step further, and from this setup, select the highest probability 5 setups that I could have taken. The highest probability is informed by the fact that our stop would be 3 pip below the low or high of the previous bar, and it would be pattern that a professional VSA trader would not skipped. Bars 3, 6, 7, 10 and 12 come across as the highest probability setups on this chart.

 

Please let me know which 5 setups on this bar would be your highest probability setups. If possible, post your own 1 min chart from your datafeed, so that I can compare which datafeed has more reliable volume for the Swiss future. I am using ensign with Transact on this chart.

 

I have given up trying to trade on 1 mintue charts a long time ago. For me, they have too much noise and generate too many meaningless patterns.

 

Bars 3 and 12 are both down bars and are not no demand bars. No demand bars are up bars, not down bars.

 

I don't trade strictly based on VSA, don't have all the VSA terms memorized and my trading is based on several bits and pieces of things I have picked up and incorporated into my trading plan, so I hope I would not be offending anyone with my analysis, but if I was forced to trade of this chart, the entries I would have taken is bar 5, 7, 8 and 11.

 

Bar 5:

Entry: Short

Why:The two bars before bar 5 broke through a mini congestion zone before that on decent volume showing weakness and then a no demand bar which would have been a high probability trade for me.

Exit: Close at the bar right after bar 6 for a small loss. (High probability doesn't mean they always work out. )

 

Bar 7:

Entry: Short

Why: No demand bar in the same area of bar 5 after declining volume in the little rally up to that point showing that there is potential for further downside, or at least a test of the low at bar right before 6.

Exit: Stop and reverse at bar 8.

 

Bar 8:

Entry: Long

Why: I wouldn't call bar 8 stopping volume though. The bar right before 8 made a new low on lower volume than the previous low before bar 6 and together with bar 8 formed a two bar reversal.

Exit: Stopped out just below the low of the two bars before 10, which together with 10 formed three bars with the same high against the previous mini support area around bars 3 to 4.

 

Bar 11:

Entry: Long

Why: I don't know if I really can make a case per VSA for bar 11 as volume is not low enough for a test and not high enough for a shakeout and not nearly high enough and the bar is not at the right place for stopping volume. I would consider it a test bar though, even with volume higher than the previous bars. Combining the strong close, the dip below the apparent support at .8860 and strength in the background, would have been good enough for me to go long.

Exit: After the bump into apparent resistance at .8870 and the low volume bar (no demand) right before 12, I would have been stopped out just below the low of the two bars before 12.

 

With small spreads of the 1 minute bars and combining with comissions, I don't think this would have been highly profitable trades and probably closer to break-even. For my way of trading, the profit potenitial is not there on 1 minute bars.

 

Why I would have not taken the other patterns:

 

Bar 1:

Not an upthrust. An upthrust have a higher high than the bars before and have a close in the lower portion of the bar. Looks more like a strong reversal bar, but without seeing what happened before, there is not enough information for me to make a decision.

 

Bar 2:

Also not an upthrust. A fairly wide range bar, but inside the range of the bar 1 and this look more like a congestion area to me. I would not trade inside such an area.

 

Bar 3:

This is not a no demand bar since it have a higher close. That bar would meant nothing to me.

 

Bar 4:

Also not an upthrust and another meaningless bar to me, other than that it is confirming my suspicion that a trading range is forming.

 

Bar 6:

Warning sign to me that the bar before might have been climactic action and that a bottom was put in place. Not a bar I would place a trade on and I would wait for more confirmation or a test.

 

Bar 9:

The two bars before 9 seems to be running into resistance in the same area as 5 and 7, but then 9 and the bar in front of them form test bars, telling me that there aren't any supply below and to hold my long after 8 a little bit longer. However, if I was not long already, I would not have entered a long, because it was so close to the congestion aread between .8862 and .8870.

 

Bar 10:

Doesn't mean anything to me, other that it was the 3rd bar in a row which couldn't break through .8865. Not a bar I would have considered any kind of entry on.

 

Bar 12:

Not a no demand bar as the close is lower. Other than using it as part of the background and see that it appears to be stalling out at the previous top, not a bar that provide any signifance for an entry.

 

Bar 13:

Technically a no demand bar as well as the one before it, but we appear to be back in the congestion zone of .8862 and .8870 from earlier and for this reason not a bar I would have acted on.

 

Bar 14:

Technically probably a no supply bar, but at that point in time, without the benefit of hindsight and seeing the bars after 14, this would have looked to me at best range bound to some weakness in the background after the double top at 12. However one could also see that it is into the range formed around bars 5, 7 and 9. There is just no clear picture for me in the background and I would not have looked for entries until the background was clearer.

 

If I maybe so bold to hand out advice in this thread where there are clearly much more knowledgable people than me... I think you need to be careful to look at a chart in hindsight and try to explain all the up/down runs with VSA or any other type of method. Whatever method you use, will not pick all the rallies and doesn't have to to be profitable. Trying to force them to do that in hindsight, will just lead to frustration during real time trading as you will not be able to do so. You don't have to be able to get on board any trend; just a few.