Ahh January and the GBP/USD

[Sledge 13]

I saw a few threads below that was asking about "Your Biggest Loser" seemed appropriate as I just had to come and admit I had my first losing month in 6 months. I lost a mere $15 bucks on the month- but the hardest part isn't that I was "down" this month- It was the fact that I had made money and I gave the money back.

 

Notice I did not say something like "The market stole it from me" or "The market took it" No I personally planned out every trade, I made informed decisions and for some reasons the technicals just did not seem to want to play ball here in January in the Forex Market.

 

I have been in this market for about 3 years, and this month left me scratching my head. Of course your mind runs wild with- well what if it is the new president, what if it is the fact that the US economy is in such shambles. But of course we can't lay blame there.

 

This month though- was like nothing I had ever seen, nor experienced. Any up moves were choppy, almost improbable at times. You would see a small drift down on say an hourly chart, Support didn't hold, but didn't plow through either. There were no breakouts of any significance, in fact it appeared to sort of wander aimlessly. The proof of the indecision is in the monthly bar that just finished forming today at EOD.

High: 1.5374

Low 1.3502

Open: 1.4599

Close: 1.4538

 

A Down bar with by the time it was all said and done- closed down a mere 61 pips from its open 30 days ago. An average of 2 pips down a day. Tough trading.

 

On an Hourly chart you saw tons of "wicks and tails" on both sides. Down moves were frought with tails all the way down the move, and you never quite knew when the turn would come. It was base hits and protecting capital central. Or you would witness wonderous things like this. Up move is exhausted, you wait for the turn, garnish confirmation, get in the trade and one bar and it was over- only to move sideways again or get into chop.

 

I know there are people here with 20+ years in the market. I remember that last January was not this "scared" and scared is the correct term- you could see people "taking what they could get" and closing fast in either direction.

 

And if you thought the GBP was rough- Look at the EUR- it would make your head explode on a 1 Hr chart.

 

I learned quite a bit this month. But I know for certain that I am missing something on the bigger picture. Any veterans out there who regularly play in this market have any insight as to why this month was the way that it was?

Aaron