Trade Flow - Harmonic of Trade

[deanz 10]

Many years ago a couple of guys on the CBOT shared what was then beyond conventional thinking and technology and those teachings formed the basis of our work today.

 

 

UrmaBlume are the CBOT guys ideas publicly available ?

 

Dean.

[UrmaBlume 10]

UrmaBlume are the CBOT guys ideas publicly available ?

 

Dean.

 

Sorry, no. But it might be of interest that Peter Steidlmayer was a very infulential mentor.

 

Its a shame Peter never advanced his work to take advantage of today's data and technology. His principles hold true even today and the posts I have made concerning trade intensity and other all come from his teachings that the answer to it all can be found in the order flow.

 

In the days when open outcry was the only way, the trader in the pit had a huge advantage. There was no online volume data for futures but all the trader had to do was look towards the phone banks, if he saw many backs of hands he knew there was a wave of buy orders hitting the floor and if he saw palms he was seeing a wave of selling.

 

Thanks to everybody for the kind words and with a couple of early exceptions, the friendly welcome.

[BlowFish 10]

I guess he found dealing with capflow too much of a chore.

[deanz 10]

Thanks to everybody for the kind words and with a couple of early exceptions, the friendly welcome.

 

I guess you are new to Trading forums, as unfortunately you approached your thread starting exactly as someone peddling a new system to sell does, which is why a few people said what they were thinking. I think luckily for all, you hung in there :-) and although I am a new poster I have been reading here more and more over the last 6 months and noticed people here are more civil and knowledgeable than what I have found elsewhere.

 

Thanks for the Peter Steidlmayer hint, google returned enough to keep me busy for a while.

 

Re: Bid/Ask volume-splitting. Would you consider volume that results in and up tick and calling it buying volume, to also be and erroneous assumption.

 

 

Dean.

Edited January 29, 2009 by deanz
added question

[lordbinder 11]

Sorry, no. But it might be of interest that Peter Steidlmayer was a very infulential mentor.

 

Its a shame Peter never advanced his work to take advantage of today's data and technology. His principles hold true even today and the posts I have made concerning trade intensity and other all come from his teachings that the answer to it all can be found in the order flow.

 

In the days when open outcry was the only way, the trader in the pit had a huge advantage. There was no online volume data for futures but all the trader had to do was look towards the phone banks, if he saw many backs of hands he knew there was a wave of buy orders hitting the floor and if he saw palms he was seeing a wave of selling.

 

Thanks to everybody for the kind words and with a couple of early exceptions, the friendly welcome.

 

why don't you right a book or organize a paid seminar? I think you'll have quote and audience

I work in something similar quite a few years back that only applied to merging markets, but your work seems more advanced

[AgeKay 10]

why don't you right a book or organize a paid seminar? I think you'll have quote and audience

I work in something similar quite a few years back that only applied to merging markets, but your work seems more advanced

 

He is working on two trading books (and a few poker books). I don't know when they come out, but I know their titles:

 

- "Practical Short-Term Trading - Techniques & Technologies"

- "Practical Technal Analysis of Price and Volume in Today's Markets"

 

"Pratical ..." seems to be his trademark. His poker book also uses that in it's title. I doubt that he will organize seminars. He does not seem to be that kind of guy (from reading his threads and listing to a few poker interviews).

[UrmaBlume 10]

He is working on two trading books (and a few poker books). I don't know when they come out, but I know their titles:

 

- "Practical Short-Term Trading - Techniques & Technologies"

- "Practical Technal Analysis of Price and Volume in Today's Markets"

 

"Pratical ..." seems to be his trademark. His poker book also uses that in it's title. I doubt that he will organize seminars. He does not seem to be that kind of guy (from reading his threads and listing to a few poker interviews).

 

Thanks for the plug. The poker book is "Practical Poker Math." The 2 I am working on now are:

 

"Practical Short Term Trading - Techniques & Technologies"

"Practical Technal Analysis of Price and Volume - A New Era"

 

As to lordbinder's suggestion about seminars we have the material but its like AgeKay says - we don't have the inclination.

 

As of now none of our work is for sale and while we have done some one on one full imersion training in high frequency trading we don't really know what all we will do going forward and are open to suggestions.

 

Thanks for being so nice guys, my initial reception here was a bit cool.

[AgeKay 10]

As of now none of our work is for sale and while we have done some one on one full imersion training in high frequency trading we don't really know what all we will do going forward and are open to suggestions.

 

It seems that you don't want to get more specific on how you calculate your indicators. But could you at describe the logical reason behind the calculations that you do?

 

For example, why are you looking for constant trade sizes in your trade intensity calculation, is that because these automated trades are stupid enough to make them all the same size, or is that a misunderstanding on my part?

 

Or why don't they just drop a 1000 contract order when they see it bid or offered in the order book? Obviously, they have a problem both ways. If they chop it up, you guys see it, if they don't everyone else sees it.

[UrmaBlume 10]

It seems that you don't want to get more specific on how you calculate your indicators. But could you at describe the logical reason behind the calculations that you do?

 

For example, why are you looking for constant trade sizes in your trade intensity calculation, is that because these automated trades are stupid enough to make them all the same size, or is that a misunderstanding on my part?

 

Or why don't they just drop a 1000 contract order when they see it bid or offered in the order book? Obviously, they have a problem both ways. If they chop it up, you guys see it, if they don't everyone else sees it.

 

With regard to trade intensity, because of Trade Station's limitations we calculate trade intensity outside Trade Station and can report it on any kind of time or volume bar.

 

As to constant volume bars - they are our standard. We don't use time bars as price is not motivated by time it is driven by volume and we don't use tick bars because they weigh all transactions equally and we think it is important to know and reference whether a transaction was for a single contract or a thousand.

 

cheers

[lordbinder 11]

well I was reading again all the posts in reference to the system, actually I don't agree with someone saying you didnt said much, the system is easily reproduce, or is just me that I work with something similar in the past and worst conditions (emerging markets are harder to analyze on those terms). But either way the system can be reproduced perhaps not exactly but closse enough, the data and the programming are not issues either.

The real asset here would be the rules in which such information is applied, its nice way to present the information but the key here are the rules of trading you must be developed by now, and more to the points the profit loss analysis, probabilities of success, optimal amount of contracts, and so on. Without that we are only seeing nice charts and nothing more.

 

Don't get me wrong I found the system refreshing and Its visually compelling but I would like to see not the rules of trading itself but the parameters of efficiency and risk I mentioned above

 

To make this discussion go forward either you put the parameters of efficiency and risk so we can compare it with other systems, or you publish let's say two charts at the end of trading day the one iwth your info and the one with the asset and you say when, why and how did you trade, that would be better than the first since the first could be made up number

 

Either way you people are onto something, and If you ask me in your place (and taking into account that you have deloped a nice profitable system) I wouldnt discuss it anymore, since the publication of the rules and system would arbitrage the profit potential away

[AgeKay 10]

Thanks for the answers UrmaBlume, but I think you misread my questions. I wasn't questioning your use of constant volume bars since they make total sense to me.

 

My first question was with regards to a comment you made on the trade intensity thread:

 

What we do aside - measure the time for a block of a constant size and extrapolate to cpm.

 

When I read that comment, I thought you were looking for trades that have constant trade sizes in the trade intensity calculations. For example, I 1000 lot trade being choped up into 10 trades with 100 contracts each.

[AgeKay 10]

If you ask me in your place (and taking into account that you have deloped a nice profitable system) I wouldnt discuss it anymore, since the publication of the rules and system would arbitrage the profit potential away

 

Or help them make more profit. To beat them, you would have to detect and execute these trades faster than they do it. If you are just a little slower than they are then you would actually help them (while still being able to profit).

[lordbinder 11]

Or help them make more profit. To beat them, you would have to detect and execute these trades faster than they do it. If you are just a little slower than they are then you would actually help them (while still being able to profit).

 

I don´t think so, many people doing this same kind of strategy will difficult the entry, if the system is really good you only need a few people trading 50 contracts to make you loose some trades or getting at worst prices

 

Certainly there is strategies that are benefited from massive participation but i dont think this one is one of them

[lordbinder 11]

This is really why I don't understand the point of these threads..

Sure if your small enough, with robust enough software you can hit the high frequency arbitrage guys liquidity problems and ride the wave they make..

I'm sure something like that works better than technical analysis...until the account grows and your own lack of liquidity puts you up against the real high frequency guys blow for blow.

On the flip side though I do see Urma's point, alot of the ideas on this board are just utter garbage and not in tune with the reality of the modern markets.

The real problem though is we are talking at the limit of an internet message board. I have alot of ideas on this type of stuff with zero reason to ever post them until I've explored them dry.

A more technical/software focused direction to these threads would probly be better than techniques.

 

I agree ,in most strategies you must put a cap on the amount of money you can use, I have a profitable strategy that has split the capital at some point and start over cause the profit fades away as you increase the capital

[Do Or Die 10]

Deanz, calling a trading method as 'technology', using 'scientific' terms are established methods for promotion. Here is a very good article about them

Snake Oil Tutorial

[UrmaBlume 10]

It will be interesting to know how and when the 'technology' was put up for sale.

 

None of it is for sale it is for lease and the first leases where granted in June of this year.

 

The early posts that you reference were over 3 years ago and after hundreds of requests from this forum alone - I decided to make some bits and pieces of my technical base available to the public.

 

Again for the form over substance bashers - you can find many references for both me and my technologies on this forum. But that assumes you would like to have the sligtest understanding of what you are talking about.

 

They have a very, very inexpensive week long trial and you can ask either the moderator or any of the 80 -120 people in the room their thoughts on me and my gear and even watch the indicators in action, in real time and hear the moderator call trades in real time.

 

Mindless bashing of a threat is always easier than understanding and for some that is their only modus operandi.

 

UrMaBlume

Edited December 12, 2011 by UrmaBlume

[Do Or Die 10]

None of it is for sale it is for lease and the first leases where granted in June of this year.

 

Thanks for the reply.

 

Frankly, you do smell like a rat. So far you just sound like a snake oil salesman to me. if openly sharing ideas is your purpose here, the how come you never answer Janus's questions addressing to you in the Trade Intensity thread :

 

I'm intrigued why you cannot share codes of your indicators, about which there is no secret.

 

You show in historical charts that your 'technology' is able to pick up every peak and bottom. Amazing accuracy. Can you make live calls with same accuracy? If no, then the historical data has been cherry-picked and curve-fitted.

 

[UrmaBlume 10]

None of it is for sale it is for lease and the first leases where granted in June of this year.

 

The early posts that you reference were over 3 years ago and after hundreds of requests from this forum alone - I decided to make some bits and pieces of my technical base available to the public.

 

Again for the form over substance bashers - you can find many references for both me and my technologies on this forum. But that assumes you would like to have the sligtest understanding of what you are talking about.

 

They have a very, very inexpensive week long trial and you can ask either the moderator or any of the 80 -120 people in the room their thoughts on me and my gear and even watch the indicators in action, in real time and hear the moderator call trades in real time.

 

Mindless bashing of a threat is always easier than understanding and for some that is their only modus operandi.

 

UrMaBlume

 

Check out the forum - you will see the calls in real time and maybe, just maybe you will learn something beyond price/RSI divergences.

[Do Or Die 10]

Check out the forum - you will see the calls in real time and maybe, just maybe you will learn something beyond price/RSI divergences.

 

Whats wrong if I expect you to post calls in the same forum where you are posting the charts?

Also to remind, I would like to see your calls with near 100% accuracy same as depicted on the charts.

[UrmaBlume 10]

Whats wrong if I expect you to post calls in the same forum where you are posting the charts?

Also to remind, I would like to see your calls with near 100% accuracy same as depicted on the charts.

 

For the regulatory, compliance and liability issues already mentioned I can't imagine any software vendor who would do as you ask. If you ever find one please post the links here.

 

Why keep stalking and knocking mine - why not just put me away by posting something better that you wrote/created yourself. Unless of course your price/RSI is the best you can come up with.

 

Again I have, however, provided you with quick and easy access to people who use this software every day, understand it and they would be happy to answer any of your questions and show you how it is traded in real time. But then again it is still easier for you to blah, blah, blah with absolutely no understanding of the subject at hand, just like your price/RSI approach.

 

 

UrmaBlume

[wunderlich 10]

Hi Urma,

 

thanks for the ideas...

 

I took a 250 constant contract bar on Dax-Future´for the last 5 trading days. Took Upvolume und Downvolume Ticks and smoothed it out with an moving average.

 

The robustness of parameters you will see in the chart. I took the optimal value (17) for going always long or short with no stops and no commission.

 

Interessting concept, but I would like to see the parameters more robust ;-)

 

W.

[Do Or Die 10]

Why keep stalking and knocking mine....

 

Does that means the 50+ members who have called you by all names were stalking you.

 

Can you please post more charts depicting your technology? I am in complete awe about the 100% accuracy.

Edited December 13, 2011 by Do Or Die

[fxtrader12 10]

at your vol spike, the RSI was crossing 1/2. And if you were uncertain about this cross, you should've checked the lower time frame. So what is the issue? Forget trading 1 min maybe is the point?