Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Hi, i just wanted to post a trade (Attached chart) I am in at this moment (10:08 ET) that is related to the Springboard question I made some days ago.

 

As can be seen in the chart, price had been falling during the early morning and is currently stuck in a range. From reading the volume behaviour during the range it is not clear for me if the odds favor a breakout to the downside or to the upside.

 

Perhaps someone in the room has a clearer vision and can spot things I can´t, Any comments would be appreciated.

5aa710f17e2c9_CL06-12(1Min)25_04_2012.thumb.jpg.3cbefdbebcf3193371acfd1d4af672c3.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi, i just wanted to post a trade (Attached chart) I am in at this moment (10:08 ET) that is related to the Springboard question I made some days ago.

 

As can be seen in the chart, price had been falling during the early morning and is currently stuck in a range. From reading the volume behaviour during the range it is not clear for me if the odds favor a breakout to the downside or to the upside.

 

Perhaps someone in the room has a clearer vision and can spot things I can´t, Any comments would be appreciated.

 

You say you are in this trade right now. When and where did you enter?

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The entry was around 9:35 ET, it was a short trade, It was closed at 10:30 after the release of the Crude Oil Inventories data.

 

Without context, it's impossible to say. You don't way why you went short, or how, or at what price, or where your stop was. When planning a trade, start with the macro and work your way down to the micro. By doing so, whatever questions you may have about the possibility of springboards and the direction of your trade after entry may be answered as a matter of course.

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
No, I don't. But there's a lot of good information in the P&F thread if you do.

Yes. I know about them. A number of Wyckoff discussions omit the use of PnF charts and I'm interested in why that is so. I've talked with Gary Fullett and Gary Dayton and they don't use PnF either.

 

I thought that PnF charts help to predict where, when and how much the market will move. I don't understand why Wyckoff traders don't use them.

 

Also, some Wyckoff traders speak of the SMI training as the Wyckoff Bible, but there is so much of the method taught by SMI is left out of forum discussions. For example, the 5 steps and the 9 buying and the 9 selling tests. Do you have any idea why these things are not discussed by professional Wyckoff traders in forum discussions?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes. I know about them. A number of Wyckoff discussions omit the use of PnF charts and I'm interested in why that is so. I've talked with Gary Fullett and Gary Dayton and they don't use PnF either.

 

I thought that PnF charts help to predict where, when and how much the market will move. I don't understand why Wyckoff traders don't use them.

 

Also, some Wyckoff traders speak of the SMI training as the Wyckoff Bible, but there is so much of the method taught by SMI is left out of forum discussions. For example, the 5 steps and the 9 buying and the 9 selling tests. Do you have any idea why these things are not discussed by professional Wyckoff traders in forum discussions?

 

 

As part of our daily newsletter, we include P&F charts. As far as the other things that are omitted from forums, I think it's mainly because traders are looking for buy and sell setups versus the text of the Wyckoff course. Certainly if there are any questions about the 5 steps and the 9 buying and selling tests, I would be more than happy to discuss them.

 

Gary

 

 

 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and off exchange foreign currency products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi, i just wanted to post a trade (Attached chart) I am in at this moment (10:08 ET) that is related to the Springboard question I made some days ago.

 

As can be seen in the chart, price had been falling during the early morning and is currently stuck in a range. From reading the volume behaviour during the range it is not clear for me if the odds favor a breakout to the downside or to the upside.

 

Perhaps someone in the room has a clearer vision and can spot things I can´t, Any comments would be appreciated.

 

 

I'm not into Wyckoff, but I would guess this has something to do with the fact that it is FOMC day. So, I would not be surprised if most trading systems do not provide any clear signals. Wait for the press conference to be in large part over. Trading opportunities might arise after that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm not into Wyckoff, but I would guess this has something to do with the fact that it is FOMC day. So, I would not be surprised if most trading systems do not provide any clear signals. Wait for the press conference to be in large part over. Trading opportunities might arise after that.

 

Thanks for your reply, yes actually before the FOMC statement the other reason holding the market from moving was the Crude Oil Inventories report. What I am trying to do, (if it is even possible) is to interpret from market action before the report what could be the most probable direction the market would take.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The green square is the buy stop.

 

Db - The stop entry above the daily bar high makes sense. I am curious, how do you quantify your stop-entry levels on intraday charts, as you've written that you don't give consideration to intraday bar boundaries . Do you use naturally forming swing highs as your entry breakout points?

 

-bbc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Db - The stop entry above the daily bar high makes sense. I am curious, how do you quantify your stop-entry levels on intraday charts, as you've written that you don't give consideration to intraday bar boundaries . Do you use naturally forming swing highs as your entry breakout points?

 

-bbc

 

Well, well, look who shows up after a year and a half :)

 

I don't want to give the impression that I took this trade. I posted it only as an excellent example of a Wyckoff entry, and since at least one person has been following the ES, I'm surprised he didn't pick up on it.

 

 

In any case, if using a 1m chart, you'll notice that price slid sideways briefly after testing support (about half an hour). This constituted a springboard and would have enabled a damned tight stop. Whether one uses bars or a line or whatever the software people dream up, it's easy to see what's happening with trader behavior if one is watching it in real time, which is what one ought to be doing if he's trading intraday.

 

Hope you've been making piles of money.

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks for your reply, yes actually before the FOMC statement the other reason holding the market from moving was the Crude Oil Inventories report. What I am trying to do, (if it is even possible) is to interpret from market action before the report what could be the most probable direction the market would take.

 

Try, but don't be disappointed if you don't succeed. What you view as a possible springboard could be a preparation for an advance or a preparation for a decline or a bunch of traders just sitting around waiting for news, and you're attempting to trade a very news-driven market.

 

Best of luck.

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes. I know about them. A number of Wyckoff discussions omit the use of PnF charts and I'm interested in why that is so. I've talked with Gary Fullett and Gary Dayton and they don't use PnF either.

 

I thought that PnF charts help to predict where, when and how much the market will move. I don't understand why Wyckoff traders don't use them.

 

Also, some Wyckoff traders speak of the SMI training as the Wyckoff Bible, but there is so much of the method taught by SMI is left out of forum discussions. For example, the 5 steps and the 9 buying and the 9 selling tests. Do you have any idea why these things are not discussed by professional Wyckoff traders in forum discussions?

 

I personally don't use them because I don't need them. But as I've tried to make clear whenever the subject comes up, this is nothing against P&F. Some people can't live without it, and that's fine.

 

As for SMI being the Wyckoff Bible, yes, some people believe that. This forum, however, is about the original course, not any adaptations of it. As for the five steps and the buying and selling tests, it's all in the original course. Just do a search. Few people discuss them in forums because few people actually read the course, much less study it.

 

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DB-

 

Do you use the Wyckoff Wave in your training. I see the SMI has a version of it & I'm wondering do people use this or make their own group?

 

Also, you mentioned above that you do not use P&F charts, because you don't "need" them. Can you elaborate on this (of course without going into any details that you would not like to disclose)?

 

Thank

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
DB-

 

Do you use the Wyckoff Wave in your training. I see the SMI has a version of it & I'm wondering do people use this or make their own group?

 

Also, you mentioned above that you do not use P&F charts, because you don't "need" them. Can you elaborate on this (of course without going into any details that you would not like to disclose)?

 

Thank

 

Years ago, I used to construct a Wave. But as the charts of groups and subgroups and sub-subgroups and specialty indices and ETFs etc etc began to proliferate, there didn't seem to be much point. I did try to go through the Wyckoff sequence of assessing the market then assessing the groups when the Forum first began, but the group thing got pretty much a big yawn because nearly everybody was into intraday trading and futures, then forex. So I stopped doing it. But for anybody trading stocks, it is essential to go through that sequence. As for the Wave itself, if it doesn't tell you anything that reviewing the group charts doesn't, why bother?

 

As for the P&F, I know exactly where I want to enter and I know exactly what I want to see. I also know exactly what to look for to tell me to get out (or at least begin doing so). So the P&F is just superfluous. I have no targets. I ride the train as long as it continues to go in the direction I want to go. Which is also why I don't bother with risk:reward ratios. For me they're a waste of time since there's no way of knowing what reward to expect, which is, one might say, one of the functions of doing P&F. The difficulty there is that having a target of one sort or another, one might be encouraged to stay in when he should be long gone.

 

But no one should mimic me. If one finds value in the Wave, by all means continue constructing it. Yourself. For free. Ditto with P&F. If one loves it, why shouldn't he do it?

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My interest lies in trading stocks & not looking to trade intraday, so I will take that advice. Another question for you. If you were to look into constructing group charts how would you go about doing it. The course leaves this to discretion of sorts & I'd like to hear your opinion.

 

It says to pick industry leaders & give examples for that day & time. So far, I can only look at market cap as what makes them a leader. What would you say are other attributes of creating groups?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
My interest lies in trading stocks & not looking to trade intraday, so I will take that advice.

 

Really! Good for you (the trading stocks EOD part).

 

Another question for you. If you were to look into constructing group charts how would you go about doing it. The course leaves this to discretion of sorts & I'd like to hear your opinion.

 

It says to pick industry leaders & give examples for that day & time. So far, I can only look at market cap as what makes them a leader. What would you say are other attributes of creating groups?

 

Sierra Charts allows you to combine charts in order to come up with a composite and I'm sure other programs do as well. But it's still a pain in the ass. If you can look at five charts and more or less combine them in your head, you're way ahead in terms of time and money. And it's unlikely that they're going to be wildly different anyway.

 

As for creating groups, the most heavily-weighted stocks in the DJ are IBM, CVX, MCD, CAT, and XOM. In the S&P, they are XOM, AAPL, CVX, IBM, and MSFT. In the NDX, they are AAPL, QCOM, GOOG, MSFT, and ORCL. At Stockcharts, you can display multiple charts in one view. Click Free Charts, then CandleGlance Groups. You can also go to Bigcharts, click the Industries tab (next to the Home tab), and wallow in the nine sectors, the subsectors, the groups, the subgroups, the sub-subgroups, with enough charts to make you wet (the Home Construction chart under Household Goods under Personal and Household Goods under Consumer Goods -- the 4th sector -- is what told me to sell my house in Phoenix two months before the peak).

 

Selecting the "leaders" based on relative strength doesn't make a great deal of sense. If one uses that criterion, his Wave will always show strength, and may end up giving a distorted view of the state of the market. "Leader" means important. High quality. And if the high quality stocks are in the doldrums and the low quality stocks are leading the market averages, you have a problem.

 

And incidentally, you may want to look at the original course rather than the SMI course for further guidance. I really can't help you with the SMI course since it's not the subject of this Forum.

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, my focus is the original course. As you stated, very few haven't read it, let alone studied it. I guess I'm one of the few studying it.

 

It states:

 

GROUP CHARTS: In the selection of the best stocks in which to trade, and

invest Group Charts are of material assistance. These are made of about five

(more or less) leading stocks in each industry — Oil, Steel, Motor, Copper, Sugar,

Tobacco,. Retail Trade (merchandising), Building, Railroad Equipment, etc. There

are so many different lines of business represented on the New York Stock

Exchange that these groupings can be made to include as many as you like.

 

I don't think I was clear in my question above. I will make a composite average of the top 5 or so stocks in a group (I don't want the garbage companies pulling the average down or pushing it up). This is Wyckoff (vanilla).

 

I guess my question is what should go into my decision making process when deciding what makes these the leaders.

 

All I have to go on is market cap, which is a perceived value. What other factors do you think can help me decide? I've read many of your posts, so I know you can appreciate the fact that I'm asking how I can make my own lists & not asking you to name a list in this group, a list in that group, etc.

 

I hope I'm more clear this time. Thanks for engaging in the discussion with me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes, my focus is the original course. As you stated, very few haven't read it, let alone studied it. I guess I'm one of the few studying it.

 

It states:

 

 

 

I don't think I was clear in my question above. I will make a composite average of the top 5 or so stocks in a group (I don't want the garbage companies pulling the average down or pushing it up). This is Wyckoff (vanilla).

 

I guess my question is what should go into my decision making process when deciding what makes these the leaders.

 

All I have to go on is market cap, which is a perceived value. What other factors do you think can help me decide? I've read many of your posts, so I know you can appreciate the fact that I'm asking how I can make my own lists & not asking you to name a list in this group, a list in that group, etc.

 

I hope I'm more clear this time. Thanks for engaging in the discussion with me.

 

In Section 22, W says that the leaders are those "which are used by large interests to influence the market toward higher or lower levels". The biggies. Major companies. That's why I offered the five biggest in each of the markets. You could, if you like, use only those which show up in two or more lists. These would be ibm, cvx, xom, aapl, msft. If you want to select the major players in a particular group rather than in the market as a whole, then market cap is probably the best way to go since it is these stocks which will be used to exert the greatest influence on the group and the market.

 

For example, if you're looking at Oil & Gas, go through the Bigcharts procedure I outlined, select Oil & Gas, then Industry Analyzer, sort by Market Cap, and pick your timeframe. In this case, you'd get Exxon, PetroChina, Royal Dutch, Chevron, and Petroleo Brasileiro.

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well, well, look who shows up after a year and a half :)

 

That's got to be the pot calling the kettle black. ;)

 

BBC's still been on the Sierra Chart board but I was wondering if you'd slipped into another dimension. Welcome back DbPhoenix.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DB-

 

What makes you biased towards the original course? By the way, I love it, it free & complete. Just curious to know why you are strictly keeping this forum about the original course. I wondering if it has to do with things like VSA and other interpretations of Wyckoff that are not Wyckoff proper.

 

Thanks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
DB-

 

What makes you biased towards the original course? By the way, I love it, it free & complete. Just curious to know why you are strictly keeping this forum about the original course. I wondering if it has to do with things like VSA and other interpretations of Wyckoff that are not Wyckoff proper.

 

Thanks

 

As I wrote in the first Stickie:

 

Please note that this forum is focused on Wyckoff's original course, The Richard D. Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks: A Course of Instruction in Stock Market Science and Technique. Wyckoff died in 1934, and his course passed into other hands. The provenance of the material and the relative quality of subsequent additions, deletions, alterations and so forth is not the concern of the forum but rather the study of the original material, the belief being that by studying the original material, the individual is in a better position to evaluate any other approaches, methods, systems, etc that are "based on Wyckoff", whether they make that claim or not. Without access to the material, the individual is in the position of having to take somebody's word for the content and intent, and that's not the best basis for beginning a trading strategy.

 

All threads which contain sections of the original course or pertain directly to the original course are designated with an arrow in a green circle.

Back during the Gold Rush, it was said that the only people making any money out of all the prospecting activity were those who were selling the picks and shovels. One could make the same observation with regard to trading, only in this case, it's those who are selling the newsletters and dvds and tapes and courses and software and datafeeds and books (hello!) and seminars and T-shirts and coffee mugs and mouse pads. Anyone whose bullshit detector is in reasonably good working order should be clanging like a fire engine.

 

 

Yes, sometimes things need to be explained, and it's often helpful to be able to discuss certain points with someone who's engaged in the same struggle (which is what forums, to at least some extent, are supposed to be about, as opposed to hens in the henhouse, waiting for the foxes to arrive). But the density of the swarm of people with something to sell to beginner traders is appalling.

 

 

Wyckoff didn't learn how the markets work by watching a dvd or playing with software or even by studying charts. He did it by watching price move. And the beginner who tries to get around this by spending loads of money on some proxy or other -- like software -- is wasting his time and his money. Anyone who believes he can get away with avoiding the work is just fooling himself, no matter how much he's spent. One has to do the work.

 

And if you're not already sorry you asked, here's a post you may want to look at: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/3866-wyckoff-resources-3.html#post67112

 

Db

Edited by DbPhoenix

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LOL. Got it now. You know you raise a great point that I read in the Hoyles book, "The Game in Wall Street", whom some think was the precursor to Wyckoff's work.

 

He states, that for those selling systems, tips, stock picks, brokers, etc. If they have the answers & know how much & how easy it is to make money in the stock market, then why would they bother telling you about it instead of making their own fortune (this is paraphrased, but fairly accurate excerpt).

 

In other words, the pimp is making all the money, not the prostitutes. So, I agree with you on that topic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By vishnux
      Hey guys , what are the main things you look for to detect if the consolidation area is accumulating or distributing ? 
      1 ) I see springs in top , still markup happens and it becomes accumulation area and vice versa
      2) There is lots of volume absorption in support line and still markdown occurs.
      3) sometimes in market high / low it becomes re-accumulation  / re-distribution
      Is there any clear way to find it ? 
    • By millonmethod
      Hello everyone!
      I am an advanced trader, with many years of experience (about 15 years - 10 living exclusively from this)
      I am going to give you some tips that you must know:
      There are going to be many people who tell you that trade is easy, that with only crossiing a line  with another one you will win a lot of money.... and that´s not true.  No, Sir, reality is far away from that. Many people who start arrive here with the hope that someone "gives them" a free method, they watch youtube videos thinking that this will give them the "strategy" and in a few days they realize that it does not work for them - they lose money - and then They go looking for a new one ... and so on. YES, IT´S TRUE YOU EARN IN TRADING, A LOT. BUT THINK: for a few to win (10% + any BROKER) many others must lose (90% people). YOU MUST HAVE A MONEY MANAGMENT FORMULA ( you can email me) People study so many years to live on this, not because they are dumb, but to know what they do, when, and have absolute effectiveness. It´s very easy to get lost here: do not disperse, jumping from one to another strategy WILL NEVER give you money, it will only waste your time and make you nervous when trading. PEOPLE WHO CHANGE THEIR METHOD CONSTANTLY : LOOOOSE ALWAYS.   If you have the knowledge to develop it, take your time and do it.  Always try it first on DEMO for at least 2 weeks! If not: search to buy a solid strategy (no you tube videos pleassse ! Avoid losing money! ) This is like any business, it requires some capital to start (capital = money in the broker + solid made /purchased strategy) If you are lost: I RECOMMEND YOU NOT TO WASTE TIME IN YOUTUBE, JOIN PEOPLE WHO HAVE EXPERIENCE AND IF YOU ARE GOING TO BUY A METHOD ... PLEASE !!!! DO NOT BUY 10 BAD AND CHEAP METHODS, SAVE MONEY AND BUY ONLY 1 BUT EXCLUSIVE AND MUST ALLWAYS HAVE SUPPORT !!!!!  Do not buy Signals! They never keep up with constant profits! One week will win and the next will lose. Nothing that does not depend absolutely on you will give you the money you are looking for. And if you do not have a strategy (made or purchased) do not even try PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE: DO NOT USE REAL MONEY! AT LEAST 2 WEEK DEMO FREE HELP HERE!!!!!  IF YOU FOLLOW MY ADVICE YOU WILL BE PART OF THAT 10% WINNER, email me.
      Have a nice trading day
       
       
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.