Trading The Wyckoff Way

[forrestang 10]

Good Morning,

 

Recap of Yesterday:

As usual, here is a picture of the day as it played out yesterday with regards to the levels. The levels were a bit unclear as we are still somewhat developing a range up here. Not many opportunities if you were looking for trades at the extremes. The Resistance did come in at about 38 which was pretty close to the 40 we anticipated.

 

The green line is about as close as I personally came to putting on a position but passed due to time of day, and not being close enough to extreme, as it was only a prior swing point and a reasonable place to expect buyers.

 

Thoughts for Today:

Today I think we have a much more defined picture of what to expect. We have begun to develop some range up here. Upper edge of this current range is pretty close to 38. We will be watching 45 and 55 above.

[luker 10]

Dear Sir ,

 

My question is how can we apply the Wychoff Method on a trend in a V shape , where is no trading range for distribution ?

 

What happens at the bottom of the V? Accumulation?

 

I am a relative newbie to wyckoff (not wychoff) but you are identifing patterns of strength, if you turn the v upside down, then you get distribution. My understanding is that you need to follow patterns of relative strength, that is the whole basis of wyckoff.

 

So that not only comes in the form of distribution (supply over demand), but also accumulation, (demand over supply). The equilibrium can shift either way.

 

Is that what you are asking?

[forrestang 10]

Good Morning,

 

Recap of Friday:

Excellent day overall IMO. There was volatility unlike anytime this year. The first two hours presented some nice ranging type trading conditions if you were looking to buy support and sell resistance. Beyond that, mega down day, with BIG intraday movement.

 

Thoughts for Today:

Ranges are shown. Things look relatively clear for the open so far. There is that big range price is currently in now(shown w/red square), we've just gotten a slight bounce off the bottom, and we'll see how that plays.

 

There is another clear range directly below, and the ones above it.

[wjrusnak 10]

Looks like you had the right levels. Hope you did okay today. I got stopped out b/e at 2015 short... talk about a bummer.

[forrestang 10]

Good Morning

 

Recap of Yesterday:

Looks like you had the right levels. Hope you did okay today. I got stopped out b/e at 2015 short... talk about a bummer.

Yeah dude, even having the correct areas of interest, I still had a rough day. Even though during the trading day we had the correct idea.

 

So, as we spoke of yesterday, there where two main ranges that came into play. These are highlighted in Red. The short at 16 was clear as day IMO. Then if one bought the bottom of that range, you were likely stopped out(I was). Then we fell right through and to the bottom of the next range and stopped EXACTLY at 86! The long there was clear as day IMO as well. Then maybe one might try a short at the top of that range which would have obviously been a loser.

 

But nonetheless, still a highly profitable day if one tried to enter in those 4 areas discussed above even with the 2 losing efforts, if we played it right(I didn't).

 

Thoughts for Today:

I am not changing anything, and as usually plan to focus mainly on the ranges shown here. Here is the chart again showing what I plan to do today.

 

There is still another hour before open so a lot can happen, but take note of what we did in AH and where we are now(two red lines). Looks like we probed that upper range, and may be retracing. Let's see if we open and move to the edge of a range like we did yesterday.

[forrestang 10]

Good Morning,

 

Recap of Yesterday:

Yesterday IMO was a relatively lame day. We pierced the upper range I spoke of yesterday, and opened within that smaller range(shown by blue double area) in between the two larger ranges. I personally was looking for a move to the extreme of one of the larger ranges.

 

There was a legitimate opp around 2022, the upper edge of this smaller range once a dt formed there. Price then began to move towards the bottom of the 2016-1998. Although it pretty much stopped at the 2010 area and took off from there.

 

 

Thoughts for today:

Everything is shown. Although above I will be watching 45,55 and 63 above should price continue upwards.

 

Looks like the current range we are in 22-38/40..... there is a midpoint there shown by the dotted line that looks like it is providing a bit of reaction at 30. So in the immediate area we will be looking for either a move up to 38/40, or a move back down to 23ish.

 

Edited April 21, 2010 by forrestang

[forrestang 10]

 

Everything is shown. Although above I will be watching 45,55 and 63 above should price continue upwards.

 

Good morning. No recap from yesterday, a bit short on time.

 

Ranges and levels I see are highlighted. Looks like we got a nice reaction right at 45 in AH, along with a close probe to 50.

 

For the opening, let's see if we get a healthy retracement down to a level.

[forrestang 10]

Good morning.

 

Thoughts for Today:

Looks like we are continuing to probe higher. While we've been here before, it was a long time ago. So many of the levels pulled from above are coming from a daily chart. Above where we are now I am watching 63, 73 and 83.

 

Shown are the ranges as I see it them now. Note also the more obvious midpoints as they may come into play.

 

Note: That range up at the top, that is not a clear range atm. The upper edge of it I'd actually see down a bit lower.

 

Edited April 26, 2010 by forrestang

[forrestang 10]

Good morning.

 

Recap of Yesterday:

So yesterday was an interesting day. We sold off early in that one timeframe shown below(smaller set of supply/oversold lines). We found some support at what was a former midpoint/level shown labeled "level 1." We then moved up to the next timeframe higher (larger set of supply/oversold lines), and sold off again to about the same level.

 

The rest of the day was spent inside that range. In after hours, we sold off to the lower edge of the big range we highlighted yesterday and found support there.

 

 

Thoughts for Today:

So today, only modification we are making are to the upper range at top. We have adjusted the upper range of it, along with the minor levels in between which have formed a little mini-range, and we will be watching the globex highs(pink line).

 

Remember as stated yesterday, above we have possible areas of 63,73 and 83.

[forrestang 10]

Good Morning,

 

Recap of Yesterday:

Here is what happened yesterday. We did have a huge drop during the GS grilling. But it did occur in a probable area of where we'd expect sellers to come in. I guess it was all the excuse the Bears needed to unload:confused:

 

 

Thoughts for Today:

Given the nice drop back into the range, I have zoomed out quite a bit to show the ranges down below a bit as the may/may not come into play.

 

Just a thought, looks like we may possibly have broken the stride of supply as we tested that 2000 area with that secondary test. Only time will tell though as this all occurred in AH. FOMC today, so maybe this will correlate with a move back up to 2048 based on this activity now at 2000? But again, only time will tell as the day unfolds.

 

Edited April 28, 2010 by forrestang

[forrestang 10]

Good Morning,

 

Recap for 28-30 April 2010:

I didn't post updates during these days, but I didn't modify any of my areas. Shown is how price reacted to the various ranges and levels.

 

Thoughts for Today:

Not much has changed as you can see once again. I will be watching the AH H/L(pink lines), which may change prior to open. I will be watching that high print @ 2058, and levels above not see are still 63,73 and 83.

[forrestang 10]

Good morning,

 

Recap of Yesterday:

Excellent day, Couldn't ask for much more with the day we had yesterday. We opened, and broke clear through one range, entered the next and straight to the other side.

 

Thoughts for Today:

Here are the S/R, and Ranges as I see relevant. For the open we've given back all gains made yesterday and are currently right back at the bottom of a range.

[forrestang 10]

Good Morning,

 

Recap of Yesterday:

Slight gap down, trended down rest of day. As you can see we opened more or less in the middle of one of our ranges, and blew clear down through 3 ranges on a bit of a grind down.

 

Thoughts for Today:

Same ranges as yesterday, note the little range area we are in as the market is getting ready to open. Note: As of this typing price has dropped through this box and is headed down towards range extreme.

[georg7e 11]

I am looking to buy an indicator or an add-on for Tradestation that charts waves and charts

the volume for each wave. The indicator shown on the chart posted by Tape Reader on Page 4 would do just fine.

[BlowFish 10]

SwingLeeII would do the job. Freebie from Clyde Lee.

[georg7e 11]

I appreciate you help Blowfish. I checked out The Swing Indicator, but it doesn't look like it includes the total volume for each swing.

[BlowFish 10]

Should be one of the (many) options if you have the correct version (can't look right now). It's written by Clyde Lee of The Swing Machine.

[Chouca 10]

Fulcrum,

 

Very, very Interesting - I want fully to understand what you mean;

 

The Cumulative Delta tracks the cumulative number of "aggressive buyers" grabbing the offer MINUS the aggressive sellers grabbing the bid, right?

 

What you get then is a number that shows if there has been mostly "aggressive sellers or buyers" during some time period (or from contract start).

 

At the lows in the ES today the market had just neutralized the very last significant LONG inventory which had still been held in the market

 

Do You then mean that the Long inventory is back to "neutral" as the cumulative delta crossed the 0-level at around 13:41???

 

It is just so interesting to watch how right as the last available LONG inventory goes to neutral how the Equities SELL program activity shuts down (happens frequently.....why I love to track the Cumulative Delta)

 

Do you see clues in the market that as the cumulative delta gets very positive sell programs turns in and sells aggressively?

 

In the chart - how do You set the level of "Lowest Delta Threshold of Remaining Inventory"?

[FulcrumTrader 10]

Cumulative Delta (BID/ASK Differential) is a parsed volume study where you can track the "market order" driven order flow (the predominance of Commercials activity in the futures markets is with "market order" entries/exits). As you track the very critical "market order" driven order flow each day with the Cumulative Delta, you will see the Delta Volume Distributions built from areas of price with resting held inventory.

 

To know the exact pricing levels or zones of price where significant accumulated inventory is resting has distinct advantages. Cumulative Delta can then be used as a mechanism to track intraday open interest as the market trades back and forth betweens zones of resting inventory. These easily determined zones of significant resting inventory imo are the only real support or resistance in a market (where large participants have their butts on the line with real held inventory).

[Chouca 10]

Thanks Fulcrum,

 

I am familiar with the Cumulative Delta, and I have started to study it in my charts.

 

you will see the Delta Volume Distributions built from areas of price with resting held inventory.

 

To know the exact pricing levels or zones of price where significant accumulated inventory is resting has distinct advantages. Cumulative Delta can then be used as a mechanism to track intraday open interest as the market trades back and forth betweens zones of resting inventory. These easily determined zones of significant resting inventory imo are the only real support or resistance in a market (where large participants have their butts on the line with real held inventory).

Sorry I still don't follow, I see CD follow the price movemenent or diverse from price movement either up or down which shows how the "market order" participants act at certain price levels or at news releases.

 

But how do You determine the areas of price with resting HELD INVENTORY???

 

[As interesting as this discussion may be, it's not particularly pertinent to Wyckoff's approach. I suggest that those who are interested in cumulative delta initiate a thread in the Technical Analysis forum.

 

Ed.]

Edited May 31, 2010 by DbPhoenix

[Gringo 10]

Here's a quick review of GLD.

 

120 seems to be s/r.

 

[LeeRain 10]

What will you do if it does?

 

What will you do if it doesn't?

Edited July 6, 2010 by TLAdmin
Inappropriate Signature. LeeRain, try this again and we're banning you.

[LeeRain 10]

Thanks

Edited July 6, 2010 by DbPhoenix
content

[LeeRain 10]

I paper traded for the last 4-5 months and I'm feeling I'm ready to refine my trading skills and I know that I can do so only if I trade live (even with the smallest amount of money).

Edited July 6, 2010 by DbPhoenix
content

[Gringo 10]

Above 122 I exit and under 120 I go short. You need to have your own criteria about what to do. For some going above 120 is a long as it's a breakout. I play reversals hence under 120 is a short. Someone who went long above 120 may have 119.5 as stop loss or 119 or lower based on personal plans.

 

There are other threads that explain where to exit etc.

 

Gringo