Trading The Wyckoff Way

[Niko 10]

CL

 

 

After a LH Yesterday prices are at the top of the TC and near S at 96. The LOLR is still up, but the trend can stall at any moment.

 

Longs: Too late

Shorts: Not yet

 

NQ

 

 

After redefining Aug-Sept TR I found that the top of that TR coincides with the R level we have been hitting in the last few weeks. And is precisely the level we are at today. The LOLR is still up as we are within the TC and below the MP.

 

Longs:Buy a breakout of PDH

Short: Not yet

[Niko 10]

CL

 

 

We are currently within a TR above the top of the previous weeks TC. So far sellers have been able to withhold buyers advance and the LH from yesterday´s afternoon is a new sign of weakness.

 

Plan:

 

Buy a REV at the bottom of the TR, sell a RET after the BO of the bottom of the TR.

Buy a REV at the MP of the TR.

Short a REV at the Top of the TR, buy a RET after the BO at the top of the TR.

 

NQ

 

 

After a failed attempt to break above PDH the market made a RET towards the MP of the last upswing. The fact that sellers could not get below the 50% mark and inside the TR area is a sign of strength in a market in which the LOLR still up.

 

Plan:

 

Buy a break of PDH

Buy a REV at PD MP

Buy a REV at PDL

 

Short a REV a PDH

Short a Break below PDL

[gozila 10]

is it wyckoff channel as book said ???

[DbPhoenix 42]

Yes, except that your upper line starts where you have your circle. It does not extend to the left.

[gozila 10]

Yes, except that your upper line starts where you have your circle. It does not extend to the left.

 

"except that your upper line starts where you have your circle. It does not extend to the left"

 

yes i understood, thank you

[DbPhoenix 42]

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[Niko 10]

Db,

 

Regarding S/R levels for TIF, I think I see you are using previous swings to define levels, I often ignore the swing highs or lows and focus on the TRs. I guess is because you are referring to levels that formed during the trend or perhaps I got it all wrong.

 

Nice aftermarket analysis, the question I made to mayself around 12:00 today was why bother closing any of the short trades until noon if the TL was never really broken.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Db,

 

Regarding S/R levels for TIF, I think I see you are using previous swings to define levels, I often ignore the swing highs or lows and focus on the TRs. I guess is because you are referring to levels that formed during the trend or perhaps I got it all wrong.

 

Nice aftermarket analysis, the question I made to mayself around 12:00 today was why bother closing any of the short trades until noon if the TL was never really broken.

 

If there's something obvious, I can plot it ahead of time. More often I'll see price choking at a certain level and I'll swing to the left to see if there's something that might be responsible. I don't draw a line; I just look. But when preparing these charts for posting, I have to draw the lines. Otherwise, almost no one will understand why I did what I did when I did it where I did it.

 

Nor do I draw any of the other lines. But I've been doing this for a long time.

[Niko 10]

The problem with a low IQ is that it takes time connecting the dots :crap:. I finally understood the thing about finding s/r on the go. Thanks.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Altho it's not just a matter of lines. If, for example, buyers keep reaching and can't make any progress or hold onto their gains, the probabilities shift toward the downside. This was particularly true today. Failure to make a higher high, failure to follow through. This is why the trader must watch price moving and not just sit around waiting for some bar to "close" or "change color".

[Niko 10]

CL

 

 

After buyers failed to break above the MP of Jan-Feb TR sellers came in strong to take prices back inside the TC, we are still in an uptrend and the MP of the last upswing still holds.

 

Buy: Upside REV at S with a shoestring stop.

Short: No

 

NQ

 

 

After a strong REV from R at 820 prices found S at 780. As prices are still within the TC the trend remains up but buying pressure has been fading for the last 3 months, so cautious bullishness is the way to go.

 

Buy: REV at S with stop at PDL.

Short: No

[DbPhoenix 42]

These will probably be the last of this series:

[gozila 10]

DbPhoenix,

"supply and demand line"

 

do you think it is a clue to identify turning point,secondary reaction,the law of supply and demand?

[Niko 10]

I was really clueless about yesterday's market action. Thanks for the postmarket analysis.

[DbPhoenix 42]

DbPhoenix,

"supply and demand line"

 

do you think it is a clue to identify turning point,secondary reaction,the law of supply and demand?

 

The chief purpose of these lines is to identify the relative strengths of supply and demand. If buying pressure is greater, the demand line will track the stride (/). If selling pressure is greater, the supply line will track the stride (\). If either line is broken, the break may signify an oversold or overbought condition or the break may signify a change in stride, even a turning point. The trader has to be ready for either.

 

As for secondary reactions, one line or the other will of course be broken since the secondary reaction is a reversal.

 

Wyckoff called them Support, Supply, Overbought, and Oversold lines (see Section 15). I've simplified them a bit and use only Supply line and Demand line.

[DbPhoenix 42]

You may have to choose between oil and the NQ until you get this down. If whatever market is twisting and turning, you really have to focus on the price movements. If your attention turns to the bars, you will easily get lost.

[DbPhoenix 42]

........................

[Niko 10]

From the journal thread

 

Carefully define the setup (the set of circumstances which you define which triggers an entry) which implements this strategy, preferably using old charts (attempting to define the setup by studying realtime charts is inefficient since you don't yet know what it is that you're looking for). This is called "backtesting". All else flows from this. Unless you know what you're looking for, you cannot test it, much less screen for it. If you have not tested it, you have no idea of the probability of its success. With no idea of the probability of success, any trades made are essentially guesses.

 

 

 

I am going to take a step back and do this part properly with what i think i have, i will test it on oil, as i feel more comfortable on it. Thanks for all the help.

[DbPhoenix 42]

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[gozila 10]

overbought and oversold line ( section 15 ) ????

 

give me a link to this section, please

[DbPhoenix 42]

Don't know what you mean by "link". It's Section 15 of the course, p. 5. If you have not yet downloaded the course, see the Stickies.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Haven't had a news-driven open in a while.

[DbPhoenix 42]

The point of a retracement is to give new buyers the opportunity to jump in, which propels the price forward. If they're not jumping in, and you're already in, what are you doing just sitting there?

 

If they don't jump in, then you've got a hinge, and you don't want to be sitting inside one of those, either.

[DbPhoenix 42]

And there they are, better late than never. But meeting R at 50.

 

1035 PS. By the time I got this posted, they'd made it through 50 but found R at the next level, 52.

[gozila 10]

Don't know what you mean by "link". It's Section 15 of the course, p. 5. If you have not yet downloaded the course, see the Stickies.

 

i am so sorry DbPhoenix, but all i have are

 

"Wyckoff method of trading and investing in stocks book"

 

and i am looking if there are any thread have more details or charts explaining supply and demand line