Trading The Wyckoff Way

[Niko 10]

I know old post dont get read as much as the new ones, i was lurking around and found this one, tha i think is going to get a few ahas from those in backtesting status

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/5097-trading-wyckoff-way-62.html#post70827

[tupapa 10]

I posted a plan on ABG some time ago in the now deceased Trading in Foresight Thread.

 

 

 

I guess as a trader, you often have to hold the trade through the chop, and accept the possibility of your stop being hit, one of the hardest things in my trading.

 

 

I guess the moral of the story is plan like a genius and trade like a retard.

[Jillion 10]

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Edited April 26, 2013 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

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Edited April 26, 2013 by DbPhoenix

[Jillion 10]

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Edited April 26, 2013 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

You're very welcome. Best of luck to you.

[Seeker 11]

You may be interested in this post. I made it several years ago to prove a point, that the overlays we use now to show TRs and BOs and RETs and so forth were just as applicable then. Note also that if the correct entry is made, stops are never hit, assuming that they're not too tight and that you're paying attention.

 

The principles don't change. But you won't get any sort of adrenaline rush from EOD trading.

 

I don't understand. What exactly is the correct entry and correct stop? Yes I've read that the correct entry should move into profit immediately or almost immediately. But I don't understand how you can say the stop is never hit. Wouldn't you have to have a specifically defined stop and entry to make that claim?

 

I also looked at some of your posts regarding correct entries (you posted a chart with dots for entry and stop on NQ etc on a 1 minute chart). But in these the stop is sometimes hit.

 

I am happy to read in the original course if you can help direct me to a specific area. Thanks.

[DbPhoenix 42]

While I find it easier and more informative to read the entire course, you can focus if you like on this particular topic by scanning the course for "danger point". If you don't know where to enter, I suggest multiple readings of Section 7.

[Gringo 10]

I don't understand. What exactly is the correct entry and correct stop?

 

There isn't a one line answer to this. You'll have to read some of the course and hone your ability to read price behaviour.

 

I don't understand how you can say the stop is never hit.

 

The stop isn't hit because in the absence of price behaviour supporting your position you would want to exit on your own instead of waiting for the stop to be hit. The stop is there in case you lose internet connection, power etc or are not able to watch price move. It's to prevent you from losing big due to some uncontrollable event.

 

 

I also looked at some of your posts regarding correct entries (you posted a chart with dots for entry and stop on NQ etc on a 1 minute chart). But in these the stop is sometimes hit.

 

If the price move is sudden and doesn't give you a time to decipher that the move isn't panning out in your intended direction then the stop is taken out by the price. This automatic stop exit is a fail safe mechanism but the ideal is for you to decide based on your understanding of price movement when to close your position.

 

Gringo

Edited March 16, 2013 by Gringo

[Seeker 11]

Thankyou DB and Gringo.

[Niko 10]

There isn't a one line answer to this. You'll have to read some of the course and hone your ability to read price behaviour.

 

 

 

The stop isn't hit because in the absence of price behaviour supporting your position you would want to exit on your own instead of waiting for the stop to be hit. The stop is there in case you lose internet connection, power etc or are not able to watch price move. It's to prevent you from losing big due to some uncontrollable event.

 

 

 

 

If the price move is sudden and doesn't give you a time to decipher that the move isn't panning out in your intended direction then the stop is taken out by the price. This automatic stop exit is a fail safe mechanism but the ideal is for you to decide based on your understanding of price movement when to close your position.

 

Gringo

 

 

A-ha! Very illustrative. Thanks G.

[DbPhoenix 42]

To Those Who Feel Called Upon To Answer Questions:

 

I've added an explanation to the Wyckoff Lite/Glossary thread on how to search, both the Wyckoff Forum as a whole and particular threads. Those who have read the course and have read whatever posts are pertinent to their inquiries will be ready to open a log and begin posting charts, at which point they can ask questions that are specific to themselves, though by that time they will likely find they don't have any.

[DbPhoenix 42]

This is an example of what I was referring to yesterday regarding applying W's principles to trading.

 

Note that the first chart provides the context for the upcoming trading day. The fifth chart provides an alternate trading scheme to the fourth chart, for those who still have fear issues.

[PrymeTyme 10]

This is an example of what I was referring to yesterday regarding applying W's principles to trading.

 

Note that the first chart provides the context for the upcoming trading day. The fifth chart provides an alternate trading scheme to the fourth chart, for those who still have fear issues.

 

 

 

uhhh yea !

 

 

thats surfing ..

 

my alltime fav. quote :

 

the surfer:

 

The best explanation of a plan is "the surfer" who goes surfing. Goes down to the sea. Checks the weather conditions. Is the surf up?. Is the breeze on-shore or off-shore?. If the conditions are right, jumps on the board and paddles out 300 meters. And waits. Waits for the right wave. There are many waves. The key is to pick the right wave. Don't want to pick one too soon or too late. The choice of wave comes from seasoned experience. Not a surfing plan. A surfer does not go out surfing with a surfing plan in mind. The conditions of the moment on the day will dictate the play. Depending on the conditions, what was a good wave yesterday might well be a poor wave today.

[Niko 10]

Actually, there was quite a bit to do today, if one were daytrading it, much more than oil. I hope you'll think further about this.

 

I was actually refering to EOD, but you are right. Now, I dont quite understand yet why oil is such a sub par instrument intraday,(low IQ i guess) but given the fact that you are lightyears away from me and i am only a cub in trading experience terms, i guess i will stop swimming against the current and go back to trade nq, intraday.

 

Thanks for everything, see you tomorrow in the chat.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I was actually refering to EOD, but you are right. Now, I dont quite understand yet why oil is such a sub par instrument intraday

 

It isn't that it's sub par, tho it may be; it's that you're not there to take advantage of so many of the ops. If you're going to trade only during certain hours, it's important to trade something that provides ops during those hours.

[Niko 10]

Besides waking up earlier I will also be paying more attention to NQ in intraday, the main purpose here is going to be to be able to ride a trend as long as possible during the day, following the plan defined in the TIF analysis. I will still be following oil, gold and nq eod.

 

So I will start with the EOD analysis.

 

Oil:

 

 

So far it looks like buyers are giving up as prices are returning from overbought territory and the MP of the last downswing held. We are still within a huge hinge so no large trends are expected to come out of this until we do not see a BO.

 

The LOLR is still down, if prices keep on falling some S could be expected around 91 and if the channel top is breached then 88 should be interesting.

 

 

Gold

 

 

After a RET buyers manage to push above the MP of the May-Jul TR and are currently holding prices above it after a pullback overnight, if they manage to break above the LSH at 620 then 630 is the next point of interest.

 

NQ:

 

 

We finally breached the bottom of the congestion we were trapped in during last week, we also broke the DL and are currently in oversold territories. Some S could be provided by the shorts at the top of the Jan TR, but if they are unable to hold sellers above 759 then we would be out of the channel and sellers would possibly look for S around 700-80.

 

So far looks like tupapa short was the way to go :cheers:

[DbPhoenix 42]

We finally breached the bottom of the congestion we were trapped in during last week, we also broke the DL and are currently in oversold territories. Some S could be provided by the shorts at the top of the Jan TR, but if they are unable to hold sellers above 759 then we would be out of the channel and sellers would possibly look for S around 700-80.

 

Don't overlook the fact that 60 is the midpoint of the last rally.

[tupapa 10]

 

NQ:

 

 

We finally breached the bottom of the congestion we were trapped in during last week, we also broke the DL and are currently in oversold territories. Some S could be provided by the shorts at the top of the Jan TR, but if they are unable to hold sellers above 759 then we would be out of the channel and sellers would possibly look for S around 700-80.

 

So far looks like tupapa short was the way to go :cheers:

 

Yes but so far there is still no entry, even if you placed a sell limit below support.

 

But I would say this Gap is significant, since it results in a down wave that breaks the previous range decisively.

 

Now I am waiting for buyers to test 2781, here they will encounter supply from those who bought around 2800 and now want to get out even.

 

If buyers can't push through the supply, this will result in a Lh and we may see further downwards progress. It is also worth noting that another down-wave from here would break the trendline from the November lows.

 

 

Or none of this will happen and buyers will just smash through Resistance, you don't need to know to make money

[DbPhoenix 42]

For the information of whoever's interested, the first chart shows the retracement of the buying wave that I was referring to this morning in chat. A 50% retracement is 60.

 

The second chart shows the bounce off 60 and the progress of price toward the gap closure at 85.

 

The following text is a transcript of the chat log. This is as close to real time as I can get. Unfortunately, I don't know how to flip it, so if you want to follow along from the beginning, you'll have to scroll down to the end and then reverse.

 

Niko - Report Shout Today 08:29 AM

Impressive rally

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:29 AM

And 85. Gap closed.

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:27 AM

And there's 84

Niko - Report Shout Today 08:26 AM

Hehe

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:26 AM

They're going to get a hernia

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:24 AM

If and when the gap closes, I may just exit

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:23 AM

Yep

Niko - Report Shout Today 08:22 AM

Still there?

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:20 AM

Almost there.

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:15 AM

Next leg up

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:11 AM

So we have 19pts so far. Wonder how the scalpers are doing?

Niko - Report Shout Today 08:06 AM

GM

boru - Report Shout Today 08:05 AM

gm

Niko - Report Shout Today 08:04 AM

RET

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:03 AM

Gap nearing closure

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:03 AM

Is this real time enough for everybody?

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:02 AM

And there we go

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:02 AM

I think they do it bec they don't want to be part of the herd. What they don't realized is that it's the herd that moves price.

Niko - Report Shout Today 08:01 AM

ok

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:00 AM

That's why they always complain that nobody can do this.

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:00 AM

I let the kids trade countertrend

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:59 AM

This arch is almost geometric

Niko - Report Shout Today 07:59 AM

Ok

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:59 AM

Never

Niko - Report Shout Today 07:59 AM

When do you take trades against the LOLR, do you?

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:58 AM

Almost 1000

Niko - Report Shout Today 07:58 AM

Yep just noticed it

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:57 AM

Appear to have found S at the premkt swing high

Niko - Report Shout Today 07:57 AM

ok

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:56 AM

Buyers getting a second wind here

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:55 AM

And the btm of that range may provide R. However, the MP of the last upwave is 60. And since all that was tested overnite, that makes the LOLR up.

Niko - Report Shout Today 07:53 AM

I did not really thought about the news and the gap, just had a BO of last week TR and 78 as R from a previous TR and the MP of the downswing. In the daily the LOLR still up though.

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:50 AM

They may have other reasons, but that one is not sufficient

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:49 AM

Institutions are not going to exit the mkt just bec some dinky little country is raiding its citizens bank accounts.

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:46 AM

I think you and tupapa are making too much of this gap.

Niko - Report Shout Today 07:45 AM

Let me check,

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:45 AM

Did you see the chrts I pstd yest?

Niko - Report Shout Today 07:45 AM

looking at the MP of the wave from 807 to 748 DOwn wave

Niko - Report Shout Today 07:45 AM

nope

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:44 AM

R U lkng at the MP of the last upwave?

Niko - Report Shout Today 07:44 AM

THen I got my levels all wrong

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:43 AM

The midpoint was at 60

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:43 AM

I wonder if anybody is following this?

Niko - Report Shout Today 07:42 AM

Am i not supposed to be looking for a short? I was thinking short at the MP of the downswing at 78 if a REV happened.

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:39 AM

Anyway, here's your entry

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:38 AM

Price is in the middle of the TC

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:38 AM

There's no TC break

Niko - Report Shout Today 07:37 AM

I have price reaching the top of the TC Break of DL and a LH, just thought in HS it was a valid entry.

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:37 AM

Are you looking for a short?

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:36 AM

Bounced off S at 60

Niko - Report Shout Today 07:34 AM

nq

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:34 AM

What entry?

Niko - Report Shout Today 07:34 AM

Did you take the entry at 8:3X

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:32 AM

gm

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:31 AM

Next level, 60

Niko - Report Shout Today 07:31 AM

GM

Niko - Report Shout Today 07:31 AM

Hey!

DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:30 AM

For whoever is out there, NQ is testing S at 65.

[Niko 10]

Db,

 

I think I understand where the LOLR confusion came this morning, thank you for pointing it out.

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

Here is an uber chart of the overall trend:

[tupapa 10]

It seems like commodities are good for EOD trading, since the trends are clean and prolonged.

 

A part from Cocoa, I am keeping an eye on Wheat.

 

It bounced of support at the top of a Trading Range, which also coincides with the longer trend-line.

 

Ont the 5h, the down trend-line was broken and the up-waves are getting longer, I guess if the current down-wave is shorter than the previous up-wave, a long position would be justified.

 

[blocp 10]

hi niko what is LOLR?

[Niko 10]

LOLR: line of least resistance.