Trading The Wyckoff Way

[Niko 10]

After back testing my setup, I will start forward testing it, for that reason I will post my TIF levels again:

 

Here is today´s analysis on WTI Oil:

 

 

We are still on a downtrend that has been making some stops at previous S/R levels. Today we are again within a TR between 90.07 and 91.17 after a strong push from buyers, such push can be seen in the form of the last upwave that broke the SL after prices found S at 89.46 (the MP of a previous TR from December).

 

The strength of this upwave puts me in alert and on the look for a bullish confirmation that in this case would come in the way of a HL or a DB, in which case the plan would be a buy.

 

If 90.62 hods as R that would mean the buyers could not overcome the MP of the TR which would mean weakness in which case a short below 89.46 would be the decision to take.

 

Anyway, I will still surf the shorter waves within the day, and put extra weight for those that occur around predetermined S/R Levels.

 

For those who have not been familiarized with my setup is a simple reversal setup:

 

Break of S/D line

HL/LH

Break of LSH/LSL

[boru 10]

Price has a HH on the 15 min. As long as price stays above the LSL I would remain bullish. Some targets 2786,2778-2781,2770 MP,2761.

 

Since several instruments are being tracked, don't forget to mention what it is that you're referring to, in this case the NQ.

 

 

Note: I started this thread six years ago because so many of us were so tired of the "Here's a trade I took this morning" nonsense that permeated TL at the time. While studying hindsight charts, particularly one's own, in order to improve one's trading is always a good thing, money is made, or lost, through trading, and one must learn how to plan his trades in advance, with foresight, in order to extract the greatest profit, as opposed to just groping one's way through the day and doing what feels good.

 

That's what this thread was about. And I am impressed that the process is now so ingrained that the traders who post here do it without thinking about it much. And the influence of this has permeated TL to some extent (at least one doesn't see so much of the "Look at all the money I made yesterday" business).

 

But because it has become so ingrained, there is little to distinguish this thread from the AMT thread. So I'm closing this one in order to consolidate a bit more and make it easier for people to follow the course of events, particularly if a particular series of charts is better understood in sequence.

 

From this point forward, then, members should post whatever might otherwise have posted here to the AMT thread. If nothing else, this will help members stay on the same page.

 

Db

Edited April 30, 2013 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

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Edited April 17, 2013 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

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Edited April 17, 2013 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

I'm putting this question here rather than begin an entirely new thread for it.

 

I've never discouraged members from beginning threads of special interest. But, over the years, threads multiply unnecessarily and are often abandoned. Thus newcomers are often bewildered by the number of seemingly redundant threads and don't know where to post whatever they want to post, and, too often, posts wind up in the wrong place.

 

I've done a lot of consolidation lately and the number of threads has been considerably reduced. Now, however, I've reached the subfloor and I have this thread. Is there any particular reason why it's set apart from the AMT thread (which has become a sort of omnibus thread for nearly everything having to do with actual trading)? Would anyone be upset if I were to merge the two?

[tupapa 10]

I think its useful to have a separate thread for EOD trading, not exclusively FX & commodities but EOD in general.

[Niko 10]

Hehehe, I watch the oil chart this morning and remembered something that Db said about the fact that one is not there when the opportunity presents itself.

 

The market finally found S at 07 and defined the expected HL, from then prices climbed to the top of the TR where sellers were waiting to dump their contracts (The fact that it was also the point of contact with the trendline is just coincidence).

 

Right now we are still in the long term downtrend breaking the DL from the last upswing, perhaps looking for a short is not a bad idea, but one has to take into account that we are still in the chop so good trade management is paramount.

 

 

The appropriate entry was yesterday around 91, but I was not there to take advantage of it so I guess I am short of options:

 

1. Wait for the market to reach 07 again and see if sellers retreat or if they push further down. In the first case the course of action is a long after a HL and the break of DL, in the second case, I would need a LL after a Lower swing high.

 

2. Try to surf the chop, but experience has thought me that I am not ready for that kind of acrobatics.

 

3. If buyers provide R above 07, I guess the courses of action could be to wait for a REV at 91.17 or a BO.

Edited March 6, 2013 by Niko

[DbPhoenix 42]

.

 

Chat has ground to a halt for me, but this is what I was talking about regarding the entry for NQ.

 

If there's any doubt as to where R lay, just look at what traders do when they penetrate it. It's as if price is being shot out of a cannon.

 

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

Can't find where I posted the heads up on PFE and TL won't let you search for anything less than four letters, but it gapped up yesterday.

[DbPhoenix 42]

The AMT thread will eventually change balance toward larger intervals, e.g., 30m to daily since I won't be encouraging wannabe-daytraders anymore, exc those who are truly set up for it.

[Gringo 10]

Db,

 

Is the change in your avatar a harbinger of change coming in the W forum?

 

Gringo

[DbPhoenix 42]

You mean vanquishing the foes of the beginning trader?

[Gringo 10]

Yes, I feel it too...::rofl:

 

 

Gringo

[Niko 10]

Cool avatar, i feel safer already.

[Perrin 10]

I am impressed

 

Hey my message is too short! Now it's not.

[Gringo 10]

Major indexes are approaching long term potential resistances or appear to be breaking above the potential resistances. Proximity to these important levels means it's wise to stay alert to any changes in upward momentum by focusing on price.

 

So far we haven't seen a weakness develop in the major indexes. Below are some charts of the indexes which all have strong upward momentum. First the momentum will have to slow down and then are pronounced weakness in price before this long term trend could be declared to be over. The first condition hasn't even materialized yet let alone the second. It could very well be that the markets continue their merry way up from here. Staying alert is all we can do here. Keep an eye on individual stocks as well to see whether they show a propensity to move upwards.

 

The only thing on concern is the duration of this bull market. It's been in effect since Mar 2009. It's been exactly four years and however the case may be these bull markets do come to an end eventually. The declines may not be sever but from a traders point of view could be sufficient. At least we are approaching an interesting juncture and it's time to learn how the price gives us subtle and not so subtle clues as to it's health.

 

These are exciting times!

 

INDU Daily

 

INDU Weekly

 

QQQ Daily

 

QQQ Weekly

 

QQQ Monthly

 

S&P500 Daily

 

S&P500 Weekly

 

S&P500 Monthly

 

 

Gringo

[Niko 10]

Lets hope "past performance is not indicative of future results" :haha:, the last two times we were around this levels things did not go as well in the months following the record level news. The first time the dot com bubble exploded and the second time the too big to fail guys almost sent us to the ice age.

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

.

The Dow did not get caught up in the internet bubble to the same extent as the Naz. One would expect the Dow instead to more accurately reflect the housing bubble and the current credit bubble.

 

It's worth noting that the extents and durations of the three bubbles as reflected in the Dow are remarkably similar:

 

 

 

 

The second and third lines are copies of the first. The third would be angled differently if one did not ignore the capitulation in '09 as an outlier. If one needs further guidance, draw a line across the upper limit of the third channel, then copy it or drag it down to the lower limit. It will match the line I've drawn almost exactly.

 

.

Edited March 7, 2013 by DbPhoenix

[tupapa 10]

Major indexes are approaching long term potential resistances or appear to be breaking above the potential resistances.....

 

Nice work Gringo, and certainly exciting times, the Dow making all time highs, CNBC talking shit 24/7, folks finally have a "sure thing" in the stock market, etc...

 

Is the bear coming out of hibernation....?? :cinema::cinema::cinema:

[PrymeTyme 10]

Yes, I feel it too...::rofl:

 

 

Gringo

 

 

Sorry Couldnt resist !

 

 

It works . . .

Edited March 7, 2013 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

Since all the regulars have had a chance to see my notice, I'll leave this open till the end of the day for comment. If no one objects to merging it with the AMT thread, I'll do so tonite.

[Gringo 10]

If you must. Consolidation time it is. Perhaps we shall wait for a break out from the consolidations in the W forum.

 

Gringo

[Seeker 11]

A few questions for the experts. I'm looking to learn. What do you guys generally look for as signs of accumulation prior to a move up?

 

Price having already climaxed to the down side?

 

Price forming a range?

 

In this range do you expect the moves up to take a longer period of time than the moves down or vice versa?

 

Do you expect the moves up or down to be 'messy' in one direction, clean in another?

 

Volume rising on the up move, falling on the down?

 

Highs of the range taken out, but not the lows, or vice versa?

 

If you can give any justification as to why you expect this, that would be great too.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Have you consulted the course? That provides far more detailed information that you could get in a post, and with charts. Just use Ctrl+F and "accumulation".

[Seeker 11]

Have you consulted the course? That provides far more detailed information that you could get in a post, and with charts. Just use Ctrl+F and "accumulation".

 

Dear DBPhoenix. Yes I have read the course. It takes a lot of work though to understand fully, and I am still so far from understaing it all, so I have lots of questions.

 

Sometimes it helps me if I ask a question as above, and then the answer will help me gain a new understanding of the course.

 

I realise not evey case will be the same, and things can't just be classified as one thing or the other so easily, but it would be nice to have some general idea of what you look for, re the questions I asked.