Trading The Wyckoff Way

[Niko 10]

How does this look as a long? It is a bit away from the base hence greater danger of a reversal. In any case there are clear levels for stops which make it somewhat easier to handle. Price isn't coming down to close the gap. I would look at it as a sign of strength.

 

 

Gringo

 

I would not buy this at 58, if I was long at a lower level, and that must have happened intraday below 56 I would hold my long until i see if the SL is broken and R is overtaken.

 

I might be traumatized, but right now I can only see chop in that chart, so I would wait for a BO of R before considering a long.

[Niko 10]

I will not be posting any more TIF charts for the time being as I will be focusing on backtesting for the next weeks. I will be available for chat, if anyone in the trading group is interested just PM me.

[Gringo 10]

I am seeing a lot of new threads that are harder to keep track of in the Wyckoff Forum. Having a thread dedicated to Foreign Exchange and Commodities might help in reducing the clutter. My aim would be to do analysis of currency pairs on an End of Day (EOD) basis.

 

JPY has been weaker against most major currencies so was the logical choice. The other currency option to go with JPY was EUR or CAD.

 

1) Looking at EUR/CAD it became apparent that EUR was a stronger currency as compared to CAD.

 

2) I didn't stop there. I also looked at EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY recent rise from January this year and the rise of EUR/JPY is greater than the rise of CAD/JPY.

 

3) Looking at recent price behaviour the EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY are behaving quite similarly but the CAD/JPY is dropping comparatively more. EUR/JPY is showing more strength to the upside as it is already turning up.

 

Based on the above three considerations I have set my eyes on the EUR/JPY as the candidate for a long.

 

 

EUR/JPY seems to be getting ready for a potential run up. Break above the supply line but more importantly above the LSH is in my opinion the signal to go long.

 

Exit stops could be around 124.42 area and for those with the stomach for it below 122.65 area.

 

Please forgive my errors as Fx analysis is not my regular cup of tea.

 

Gringo

Edited February 19, 2013 by Gringo

[tupapa 10]

I would say that Visa Setup is perfect, since sellers couldn't close the Gap and the upwaves are still strong, but I wouldn't enter so far in the up trend, a pretty steep one by the way.

[tupapa 10]

Today there was a classic Support rejection setup on Acerinox :

 

The Support should be evident on the weekly:

 

 

On the daily, there was an up-wave and a test yesterday, one could enter, with a limit order above yesterdays high, next port of call is 9.00.

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

How does this look as a long? It is a bit away from the base hence greater danger of a reversal. In any case there are clear levels for stops which make it somewhat easier to handle. Price isn't coming down to close the gap. I would look at it as a sign of strength.

 

Gringo

 

What is the volume telling you?

[DbPhoenix 42]

I am seeing a lot of new threads that are harder to keep track of in the Wyckoff Forum. Having a thread dedicated to Foreign Exchange and Commodities might help in reducing the clutter.

 

That was done in order to draw attention to discussions that would not otherwise be noticed by anyone who wasn't already following the Forum anyway. But it didn't accomplish the objective, so I'm going to merge them all into the AMT thread. I'm likewise going to merge PT's thread with this one since they have more or less the same subject.

[TL Staff 10]

That was done in order to draw attention to discussions that would not otherwise be noticed by anyone who wasn't already following the Forum anyway. But it didn't accomplish the objective, so I'm going to merge them all into the AMT thread. I'm likewise going to merge PT's thread with this one since they have more or less the same subject.

 

Thanks for the feedback and thanks for re-arranging them [soon ]

 

Any other clutter in the forums, make sure you let us know on the forums or email admin@traderslaboratory.com

[Gringo 10]

Hi Db,

 

I see your point. The volume is behaving more or less normally. It rises when price is closer to the swing highs and lows. The point which I believe you are making isn't how the volume is behaving with each ebb and flow of price but rather whether there's a significant change which could be attributed to climactic behaviour. The answer is no it isn't; and neither has price gone crazily parabolic, although the rise is steep.

 

Based on this I would conclude that perhaps there is more room to the upside.

 

 

Strange I didn't think of it myself. Maybe it's time I re-introduced volume back into my analysis. Without it small but valuable clues are unnecessarily missed.

 

Thank you.

 

Gringo

[DbPhoenix 42]

Hi Db,

 

I see your point. The volume is behaving more or less normally. It rises when price is closer to the swing highs and lows. The point which I believe you are making isn't how the volume is behaving with each ebb and flow of price but rather whether there's a significant change which could be attributed to climactic behaviour. The answer is no it isn't; and neither has price gone crazily parabolic, although the rise is steep.

 

Gringo

 

Actually that wasn't quite my point.

 

Notice that the heaviest days over the past couple of weeks are those in which buyers can't push price higher to close. In some cases, they can't keep it elevated at all. They appear to have a good day on the 6th, but sellers beat the crap out of them the following day. And while they had a good day Friday, they ain't doin' so well today. And price continues to sink lower and lower from day to day.

 

Effort, result, effort, result.

[Gringo 10]

Actually that wasn't quite my point.

 

Notice that the heaviest days over the past couple of weeks are those in which buyers can't push price higher to close. In some cases, they can't keep it elevated at all. They appear to have a good day on the 6th, but sellers beat the crap out of them the following day. And while they had a good day Friday, they ain't doin' so well today. And price continues to sink lower and lower from day to day.

 

Effort, result, effort, result.

 

Yes. You're right. Probably better to not engage in this until price behaviour shifts in favour of the demand.

 

Gringo

[tupapa 10]

Moving back to Platinum, the support at 1660 is still holding, a few days ago, you mentioned how going short on a Ret if price breaks Support is the best option, since the Hinge is out of the way, and there isn't much to stop price from falling below.

 

 

So far, the down-waves are gaining strength, however 1660 hasn't been broken:

 

 

 

Since I am new to EOD trading, I wanted to ask you about the Ret/

 

IF price breaks Support, Do you require a Ret on the Daily bar Interval? Or do you look for a Ret on the 60m?

 

Since this is EOD trading, is any bar that closes above the previous bars close a valid Ret?

 

Be good to hear how more experienced EOD traders define a Ret.

[DbPhoenix 42]

The point of this reversion to a larger time interval -- bar, line, whatever -- was/is to focus on a market that one can actually follow. This business of trying to trade small intervals while at work is nonsense. Therefore, if one can follow 30m intervals, fine. If not, switch to an interval that one can follow. One can't trade what one can't follow. There is no more romance in trading a 1m interval than a 60m interval.

 

Therefore, I'll depend on whoever is posting this stuff to be honest about what they're actually following, though I find it extremely unlikely that anyone who has a job can follow anything shorter than a 30m interval and I don't want to enable anyone's self-sabotage. Those who are intent on that will do perfectly well without my help.

 

All that aside, following a larger interval does not mean reverting to Follow The Bar. The price activity that creates the bar is still dynamic, and the "close" is not nearly as important as how price got there, and there's nothing hindsight about opening up that interval to examine what price did during that interval. The chief advantage in focusing on a larger interval is that one has time to do so.

[V_2008 10]

Hello!

I was rereading original course and met some misunderstanding with wave chart, G-H wave.

By this time everything is good

What I can't understand is this

 

Why Mr. Wyckoff has said that force of demand has died out or has started to die out after 10 minutes of an uptrust? I can believe that after 20 min with progress only 1 1/2 their will be weakness. As previous rally were 4 1/2 points. And after 10 minutes with less 1 1/2 progress their will be weakness.

Edited February 20, 2013 by DbPhoenix

[tupapa 10]

I would add that in my case, reverting to a longer time interval has less to do with being able to follow a market during the day and more to do with (not) wanting to follow a market all day.

 

I would much rather spend my day doing other things than following a ticker, and plan my trades EOD, spend an hour at night for instance, planning my campaigns.

 

Which is why I am trying to learn EOD trading, and since everything I have learnt about trading, has come from you and the rest of the forum, it is the only place where I can ask and share ideas

 

Platinum has broken the Support decisively, so I am now looking for a Ret to short.

 

Since I am only allowing myself to trade this EOD, I will update the post when I find the Ret.

 

[Niko 10]

Follow up on oil:

 

Out of the TR, watch out for the RET.

 

 

I don´t have anything smart to say about volume, but if someone has anything to say about it I would appreciate it.

[tomerok 10]

 

I don´t have anything smart to say about volume, but if someone has anything to say about it I would appreciate it.

 

I'm sure it's not that smart

But it is obvious to me that price BO to the down side without much volume, which lead me to believe buyers are not there.

not much effort and price drops... might imply a change in trend..

 

Tomer.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I don't see anything remarkable. Buyers have supported price at 95 but have been uninterested in pushing it past 98. Today, of course, is another matter, but volume did not foretell it.

[V_2008 10]

Hello!

I was rereading original course and met some misunderstanding with wave chart, G-H wave.

By this time everything is good

What I can't understand is this

 

Why Mr. Wyckoff has said that force of demand has died out or has started to die out after 10 minutes of an uptrust? I can believe that after 20 min with progress only 1 1/2 their will be weakness. As previous rally were 4 1/2 points. And after 10 minutes with less 1 1/2 progress their will be weakness.

 

May be problem here that I hasn't paid to much attention to the die out of a rallying power. Thanks for help!

[DbPhoenix 42]

Why Mr. Wyckoff has said that force of demand has died out or has started to die out after 10 minutes of an uptrust?

 

Because H is not higher than F. Regardless of pace or duration, price isn't even reaching H, much less exceeding it. Therefore, buyers are no longer in the driver's seat.

[V_2008 10]

Because H is not higher than F. Regardless of pace or duration, price isn't even reaching H, much less exceeding it. Therefore, buyers are no longer in the driver's seat.

 

Not quite understood you. Well, it is clear to see in hindsight that this was pretty weak rally after expanding reaction. But how to see this weak rally in foresight using only comparable lifting power or pressure (time and duration)?

 

Thank you!

[DbPhoenix 42]

Not quite understood you. Well, it is clear to see in hindsight that this was pretty weak rally after expanding reaction. But how to see this weak rally in foresight using only comparable lifting power or pressure (time and duration)?

 

Thank you!

 

You don't, though I assume that since this is intraday he was following the tape and making his calculation in real time. He would therefore be able to pick up the strain from the demand side. You'd be able to do the same if you were watching streaming data.

 

However, if you have some reason to believe that price is going to fail and make a lower high, you can place your short stop just below H. If price does fail, you're in. If it instead rallies and makes a new high, your entry is never triggered.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I want to share this because it represents exactly the kind of parting of the veil that I talk about so much. Or taking the red pill. Whatever.

 

Interestingly (for me), I went to an auction today (a real auction in a room), bid and bought an item. It wasn't as scary as I thought it would be (I just went there and did it - the lot came up, I waved at the auctioneer, no one else wanted the item so it was "SOLD to the gentleman at the back!"). It wasn't anything special, just a general auction of household goods from house clearances.

 

But I remember you saying about the market = a market. Today I was sitting in a room with people bidding. I was watching them bid. I was wondering about what were their plans of what to do with the items they were bidding for (they were possibly going to use the items themselves, although most people bidding looked like they might try to sell items later through their antiques shop (I pictured most of them as savvy antiques dealers or simply re-sellers who have an eye for an items value), or perhaps they are buying stock cheaply and will be storing it away for months in a warehouse until the market has improved).

 

It was basically the same thing as trading online using a computer, like we do, buying stock and selling it at a later date.

[tupapa 10]

Or a RET after a break below S.

 

It is common for beginners to think that price will plummet/rocket as soon as they transmit their order. Which of course it doesn't. There must be other reasons. It's up to the trader to determine what those reasons are and whether or not they are present. In any case, he's just along for the ride.

 

Is this The Ret you were referring to?

 

 

As for Crude, the same concept applies:

 

What about a short after a RET if price breaks below 95?

 

[tupapa 10]

It seems like a good time to refresh our analysis on gold, the decline is accelerating on what could end up being a climax at support.

 

 

 

 

I am working on to simple scenarios:

 

S1: There is a selling Climax followed by a Higher Low (test) in which case I will go long.

S2: there is a breakout below 1533, in which case I will go short after a Ret, same as with Platinum and Crude Oil above.

 

It is worth noting that since price is accelerating towards support, with no congestions, price could reverse violently if a climax takes place, something that I learnt from the most recent price action in Platinum.

 

Anybody else looking at this?