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Or a RET after a break below S.

 

It is common for beginners to think that price will plummet/rocket as soon as they transmit their order. Which of course it doesn't. There must be other reasons. It's up to the trader to determine what those reasons are and whether or not they are present. In any case, he's just along for the ride.

 

 

When i trade intra-day, I will have my R level on the 30m, then I will look at the 1m for a volatile down-wave, followed by an up-wave that results in a contraction of volatility, resulting in a LH or double top.

 

I am simply applying the same principles, only using a daily and 60m chart instead of 30m and 1m. Isn't this a textbook Wyckoff setup?

 

You are suggesting entering at the break of 1690, after a LH but isn't this simply a matter of price vs information risk? Once price breaks below 1690, I would reduce my stop to breakeven, but I wouldn't be looking for an entry.

 

I am not experienced with trading of daily bars (or trading in general, for that matter) so I might be getting it all wrong..

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=34697&stc=1&d=1360869240

5aa711b798c38_platrev.png.73f702fd9cb5d442a1c4361a3bf1607d.png

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Whether you can tolerate the stop or not depends on where you place it. And you're currently sitting at potential support, i.e., the midpoint of the last rally.

 

Not sure what you mean by a "numbers game". It's also dollars and cents. Forgetting that can cause one to blow up his account.

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I am placing my stop above the LH, around 1740. And when I say it’s just a numbers game, I mean that I have tested this setup (Rejection and resistance followed by a LH/Dtop) and it has a probability of success of around 65%. My targets for the trade are the MP of the range, and the lower limit around 1400, so the Risk/Reward of the trade is very favorable.

 

This is why I can tolerate the stop, and if price rallies today or next week making a new high, I am not going to feel angry or emotional, it would just be one of the losers in the sample. As for blowing up my account, I have a money management strategy that ensures I can last in the game.

 

The irony here, is that virtually everything I have learnt about the mechanics of trading is in this forum, as soon as I found it, I didn't even bother looking elsewhere, I know it is all here, it is all your work. We seem to have a discrepancy about this trade, so I obviously have some questions;

 

1- You are mentioning the 50% as potential support; do you consider the midpoint of every wave as potential S/R? I thought you only looked ad Midpoints of ranges and Hinges.

 

2- When I asked you where you would go short, you mentioned on a Ret, after a breakout below Support. Which support are you talking about?

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It's my opinion that both the long or the short are possible. The S&R are our key levels to keep and eye on. Based on whether price has a breakout or a rejection will probably determine which trading decisions is more appropriate.

 

The longer trend does appear to be up and had been taking a breather for some time forming this trading range from 1400 to 1700. Since price turned upwards from the mid point of this range instead of going all the way down to the bottom of the trading range indicates the predominance of demand over supply.

 

For a trader with a longer time horizon staying with the trend and the possibility of a breakout is something to be aware of. That being said a trader with a shorter time horizon could squeeze out some points in case the S&R around 1700 rejects and the the price tumbles.

 

I believe the probabilities favour the long side but price is the ultimate determinant of which side is going to dominate: The long side, the short side or the right side.

 

 

Gringo

 

Interesting Analysis, specially the part about price finding S at the Range MP, I agree that this shows strength.

 

However, I wouldn't say the trend is up, we are simply in a TR, above the 09 lows but below the 08 Highs. As you said, anything can happen, and I would say this is an inflection point:

 

If price breakouts above R, I would go long on a pullback/ret.

If Price rejects R, I go short on a LH, target is the range MP for 1/2, and range lower limit for the second half.

 

This is how I trade trading ranges.

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An alternative view on crude:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=34708&stc=1&d=1360920562

 

Tupapa,

 

You are right there is a chance this could be a turning point. There are however other factors at play as well. The way I look at it the price pull back to LSL was normal and didn't really breach it. The strong demand pushed price up to the S/R and current LSH. At the moment price is moving down. A short term trader can use it to short. For a longer term EOD trader the price is simply bouncing in the TR after BO from the large hinge that was shown in the earlier post. Until the LSL is breached I would considering my longer trade time horizon would be reluctant to go short.

 

Nonetheless, the lack of demand to move price above the S/R in your case and LSH is the first red flag and a reason to be cautious for those like me who are long.

 

Gringo

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I am placing my stop above the LH, around 1740. And when I say it’s just a numbers game, I mean that I have tested this setup (Rejection and resistance followed by a LH/Dtop) and it has a probability of success of around 65%. My targets for the trade are the MP of the range, and the lower limit around 1400, so the Risk/Reward of the trade is very favorable.

 

This is why I can tolerate the stop, and if price rallies today or next week making a new high, I am not going to feel angry or emotional, it would just be one of the losers in the sample. As for blowing up my account, I have a money management strategy that ensures I can last in the game.

 

The irony here, is that virtually everything I have learnt about the mechanics of trading is in this forum, as soon as I found it, I didn't even bother looking elsewhere, I know it is all here, it is all your work. We seem to have a discrepancy about this trade, so I obviously have some questions;

 

1- You are mentioning the 50% as potential support; do you consider the midpoint of every wave as potential S/R? I thought you only looked ad Midpoints of ranges and Hinges.

 

2- When I asked you where you would go short, you mentioned on a Ret, after a breakout below Support. Which support are you talking about?

 

1. Yes.

 

2. Below which S level do you think shorting a RET would be most successful?

 

There are no "mechanics". There's nothing mechanical about this approach.

 

I'm not channeling Wyckoff. What he would do or not do in any given situation is at best a guess. But he's been dead for 80 years, so the best one an do is study and practice. The principles don't change.

 

Your puzzlements have to do with ignoring context. Trading a daily bar is not the same as trading a 1m bar. The psychology is entirely different. Similarly, a LH after an extended trend is not the same as a LH after finding R at the top of a TR. Since you're not trading daily charts, you have to be careful not to take the wrong lessons out of these charts.

 

Edit:

 

The following chart may help clarify. This chart includes several time segments beginning with the initial hinge. Therefore, it looks far more cluttered than it would if a succession of charts were used.

 

First, the hinge. This is the first signal that a move upward may be imminent. The false "BO" below the hinge supports this hypothesis. Eventually, price breaks above the top of the hinge, further support.

 

Second, price falters at R, coming all the way back to the MP of the hinge. If long, this in and of itself is not cause for concern. If one is looking to go short at R, this is the opportunity to do so.

 

Third, price makes a LH. If price had reached R with no hesitations, this would be a more attractive short than it is otherwise because of all that sellers have to wade through in order to gain any momentum. The midpoint of the last rally, which happened to coincide with the top of the hinge, was one such hurdle. But price still has to work its way through the congestion that created the hinge. In any case, if long, the LH is sufficient justification for exiting, though one might also have exited when price first hit R.

 

Fourth, for a follow-on short, what is far more attractive to me is the relatively clear sailing represented by the blue line. This is a reflection of my conservatism, and not everyone need be as conservative. OTOH, I have a lot more respect for money than most do. On the third hand, I'm still here, and few of those who were here five years ago, much less ten or fifteen, can say the same.

 

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=34709&stc=1&d=1360934578

 

 

Like Jim Rogers, I prefer to wait until I see money in the corner, just waiting for me to walk over and pick it up. The 55pt drop in PL was nice. I'm not eager to give it back.

 

.

Image1.png.d41d3aba0d1a29dfaccb159670df5431.png

Edited by DbPhoenix

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Tupapa,

 

You are right there is a chance this could be a turning point. There are however other factors at play as well. The way I look at it the price pull back to LSL was normal and didn't really breach it. The strong demand pushed price up to the S/R and current LSH. At the moment price is moving down. A short term trader can use it to short. For a longer term EOD trader the price is simply bouncing in the TR after BO from the large hinge that was shown in the earlier post. Until the LSL is breached I would considering my longer trade time horizon would be reluctant to go short.

 

Nonetheless, the lack of demand to move price above the S/R in your case and LSH is the first red flag and a reason to be cautious for those like me who are long.

 

Gringo

 

The overriding concern for me is whether or not price is doing what I expect it to do, and this is where focusing on traders rather than price or lines becomes even more important. It is important that price found S at the LSL. But far more important is that it did NOT make a HH. This in and of itself need not be a reason to exit, but if buyers can't hold here above the MP of this little TR between 5 and 8, I'd be out. To do otherwise would be to introduce hope to the equation.

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A possible play on platinum, if the current rally results in a LH.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=34675&stc=1&d=1360754067

 

Foresight trading at its prime :cool:

 

Nice, so I guess it is just a matter of preference, for me, the LH at 1733, along with the contraction in volatility is enough to enter.

 

Now price broke below the midpoint of the range, so I have a risk free trade, and I can always pyramid if we break below 1660, on a Ret.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=34710&stc=1&d=1360938592

 

Your puzzlements have to do with ignoring context. Trading a daily bar is not the same as trading a 1m bar. The psychology is entirely different. Similarly, a LH after an extended trend is not the same as a LH after finding R at the top of a TR. Since you're not trading daily charts, you have to be careful not to take the wrong lessons out of these charts.

This is a LH after finding R at the top of the range right??

 

Yes

Plat.JPG.ebd60a5c042367bbd3bd09304a82082b.JPG

Edited by DbPhoenix

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I have exited the USO long calls position. The fact that demand just disappeared at the open and price even after an hour couldn't muster enough strength to rise prompted the decision to exit.

 

As Db had mentioned earlier I had expected price to rise where instead it stalled at the LSH. In the absence of clear strength there wasn't enough reason to stick around. I was willing to lose the entire value of the options but exited with a 23% loss. The extra funds saved could be put to better use!

 

I do understand oil could turn up here and resume but I can make decisions only in the present.

 

I am eyeing the AAPL short if price pushes closer to the 500 level.

 

Gringo

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I have exited the USO long calls position. The fact that demand just disappeared at the open and price even after an hour couldn't muster enough strength to rise prompted the decision to exit.

 

As Db had mentioned earlier I had expected price to rise where instead it stalled at the LSH. In the absence of clear strength there wasn't enough reason to stick around. I was willing to lose the entire value of the options but exited with a 23% loss. The extra funds saved could be put to better use!

 

I do understand oil could turn up here and resume but I can make decisions only in the present.

 

I am eyeing the AAPL short if price pushes closer to the 500 level.

 

Gringo

 

What about a short after a RET if price breaks below 95?

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I'll check it EOD. I don't want to get sucked into intra-day trading. Preferably once or twice a day observing price to make a decision should be the norm. My intra-day instincts start to pull me in with every twist and turn of price and it's something I wish to avoid.

 

Gringo

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I'll check it EOD. I don't want to get sucked into intra-day trading. Preferably once or twice a day observing price to make a decision should be the norm. My intra-day instincts start to pull me in with every twist and turn of price and it's something I wish to avoid.

 

Gringo

 

A point that should not be overlooked. These charts are posted, after all, with the EOD trader in mind. So if price drops below 95 and if there's a RET, the first entry op won't come before Tuesday.

 

The market loves to lure traders into chop.

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Sorry, but I feel like there was a lot more to your last explanation that I could be missing...

 

The following chart may help clarify. This chart includes several time segments beginning with the initial hinge. Therefore, it looks far more cluttered than it would if a succession of charts were used.

 

34709d1360934578-platinum-image1.png

 

 

First, the hinge. This is the first signal that a move upward may be imminent. The false "BO" below the hinge supports this hypothesis. Eventually, price breaks above the top of the hinge, further support.

 

Ok, so you are going long here preempting a breakout above resistance.

 

Second, price falters at R, coming all the way back to the MP of the hinge. If long, this in and of itself is not cause for concern. If one is looking to go short at R, this is the opportunity to do so.

 

So if you are long, you stay long because the Hinge MP held, so another attempt at resistance is anticipated, makes sense. What about the short, this is the opportunity to do so, but on a Double top or LH right?

 

Third, price makes a LH. If price had reached R with no hesitations, this would be a more attractive short than it is otherwise because of all that sellers have to wade through in order to gain any momentum. The midpoint of the last rally, which happened to coincide with the top of the hinge, was one such hurdle. But price still has to work its way through the congestion that created the hinge. In any case, if long, the LH is sufficient justification for exiting, though one might also have exited when price first hit R.

 

Price makes a LH, isn't this the opportunity to go short you were referring to in the previous quote? (same opportunity that I suggested before the plunge). The part about the hesitations I find interesting: So if price had gone up in a straight line, with no contraction in volatility it would be more attractive to you? Funny, I tend to look at it the opposite way, for me, the fact that there is hesitation on the LH, means that there is still a lot of supply up here, and buyers don't have it in them to bid prices higher aggressively, like they did the first time.

 

Like Jim Rogers, I prefer to wait until I see money in the corner, just waiting for me to walk over and pick it up. The 55pt drop in PL was nice. I'm not eager to give it back.

 

Sorry, but I don't understand this part, what 55 pt drop are you referring to, the one from 1740? Is this a scalp from the first test of R to the MP of the Hinge?

 

And one more thing:

 

Your puzzlements have to do with ignoring context. Trading a daily bar is not the same as trading a 1m bar. The psychology is entirely different. Similarly, a LH after an extended trend is not the same as a LH after finding R at the top of a TR. Since you're not trading daily charts, you have to be careful not to take the wrong lessons out of these charts.

 

I read in one of your posts that once you test a setup on a bar interval, it is applicable to any other. In this case I am replacing my usual intra-day intervals, (Daily/30m for S/R and 1m for entry) for longer term trading (Weekly/Daily for S/R and 1h/4h for entry).

 

I thought this was the logical thing to do.

 

Thanks for this fruitful discussion, as always so much to learn...

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well the funny thing is , u only know it in hindsight! funny isnt it ! but thats how it is

 

u may know that a potential selling climax is forming and therefore u may lay out a plan

how to trade such a scenario ... as a selling climax only is one after it has been retested

and it held.. same for buying climax...

 

 

an example.. on HLF herbal life Daily TF... we have evidence of a potential selling climax

here .. and we are on the way to test the lows of it.. but it looks like we may .. find a

higher low atm.. where at least for my trading plans.. a Long setup would be justified on

the break of the actual bar .. whereas .. i even would consider a reverse if the long play

wouldnt play out (long1) .. cause we have not ,much interrest as seen on the volume ie.

activity... yes we closed on the highs .. but u want to see more bullish activity the more

the better if ya play the SC to soon.. .. ie not near the lows of the SC.. therefore .. u

should be ready .., to even reverse the long position and take a short ,, playing the Retest

of the lows Of the pot. SC.. (short1 rev.) ..

 

as u can see u have to lay a plan ahead before jumping in... especially that soon...

 

from then on other scenarios .. come into play aswell.. if PA dictates o fcourse..

 

as on Short 2 a range may develope .. wheras the Long 2 may be the Succesfull retest of the SC and would justify,.. a long .. etc..

 

u have to play the markets how they develope. and judge its behaviour.. at any time..

 

Ie. u gotta be prepared

 

cheers

 

ooops ;)

 

Daily:

attachment.php?attachmentid=34721&stc=1&d=1361019262

Hourly:

attachment.php?attachmentid=34722&stc=1&d=1361019262

hlf2.thumb.PNG.a76501760e3fb74d718bd873778c8f37.PNG

hlf1.thumb.PNG.868650a8cf54a20555703f7a95cf146a.PNG

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Ok, so you are going long here preempting a breakout above resistance.

 

Someone could choose to go long. Having a hinge so close to potential R gives a controlled and determinable exit point. Also note it is a potential R and might not even act at R hence taking advantage of a hinge so close may be utilized in the even that price just starts going up from here.

 

So if you are long, you stay long because the Hinge MP held, so another attempt at resistance is anticipated, makes sense. What about the short, this is the opportunity to do so, but on a Double top or LH right?

 

One's plan regarding how to play a hinge is paramount here. If you have a plan then use it here, otherwise wait for R.

 

Price makes a LH, isn't this the opportunity to go short you were referring to in the previous quote? (same opportunity that I suggested before the plunge). The part about the hesitations I find interesting: So if price had gone up in a straight line, with no contraction in volatility it would be more attractive to you? Funny, I tend to look at it the opposite way, for me, the fact that there is hesitation on the LH, means that there is still a lot of supply up here, and buyers don't have it in them to bid prices higher aggressively, like they did the first time.

 

The hesitation I believe is visible around the 1710 area (the puny bar) after the first rejection. On the way down after the test this hesitation could have become a hindrance. You in RT wouldn't know whether this hesitation could turn into a rallying point for demand to show up. In hindsight the hesitation area didn't cause much issue after the test for R but was something you had your eyes on just in case.

 

Sorry, but I don't understand this part, what 55 pt drop are you referring to, the one from 1740? Is this a scalp from the first test of R to the MP of the Hinge?

 

I believe so. Keep in mind this is futures and a 55 point drop is quite significant, perhaps to take some partial profits. However, whether a profit is taken or not is based on one's plan and may not be something you or I would do just because Db might prefer it.

 

I read in one of your posts that once you test a setup on a bar interval, it is applicable to any other. In this case I am replacing my usual intra-day intervals, (Daily/30m for S/R and 1m for entry) for longer term trading (Weekly/Daily for S/R and 1h/4h for entry).

 

I thought this was the logical thing to do.

 

Seems logical. Just see what you find comfortable. The objective is just to see price move somehow and bar interval is just a aid in doing so.

 

As always this is an interpretation on my part of what Db might have implied and there's no guarantee that's what he meant. I am sure he'll correct me where I am wrong.

 

Happy trading,

 

Gringo

Edited by Gringo

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The hesitation I believe is visible around the 1710 area (the puny bar) after the first rejection. On the way down after the test this hesitation could have become a hindrance. You in RT wouldn't know whether this hesitation could turn into a rallying point for demand to show up. In hindsight the hesitation area didn't cause much issue after the test for R but was something you had your eyes on just in case.

 

Could you elaborate on this? maybe bring up some charts? I am most interested in this since it is what confronts the most with the short I suggested.

 

I believe so. Keep in mind this is futures and a 55 point drop is quite significant, perhaps to take some partial profits. However, whether a profit is taken or not is based on one's plan and may not be something you or I would do just because Db might prefer it.

 

Futures or not, Db has repeatedly pointed out that this charts are aimed at EOD trading, not scalping.

 

If I was to short Platinum, on a rejection of a weekly resistance level, using EOD charts there is no way I would be taking a 55 point winner.

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I like Abengoa, they are involved in the construction of Concentrated Solar Power plants, which I believe will be a major technology in power generation.

 

I made my preparation last night:

 

A few weeks ago, they handed every shareholder 3 shares per share they owned, hence the violent drop in price.

 

On the 5h, there was a strong up-wave from 2.00 which we are now testing, and it looks like we could be making a HL.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=34762&stc=1&d=1361191870

attachment.php?attachmentid=34763&stc=1&d=1361191870

 

Since today was the 3d day of support at 2.9, I entered at 2.13, if the reversal is confirmed, I have a primary DL to play with.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=34764&stc=1&d=1361191870

 

A hard stop is placed below the HL at 1.9

5aa711b9ed3b6_ABG5h.png.5e802b041641038beba01d7f7bb2587b.png

5aa711b9f134c_ABGwaves.png.f66df20f31fcd671c00ec0d11cfe3699.png

ABG.JPG.cd13db89cb14831b6d5ca74b4d571814.JPG

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As always this is an interpretation on my part of what Db might have implied and there's no guarantee that's what he meant. I am sure he'll correct me where I am wrong.

 

Not wrong. Anything but. However, there's a matter of context here. A lower high carries the same message whenever and wherever it occurs: selling pressure is beginning to have greater influence than buying pressure. But a lower high on a 1m chart, for example, does not provide the same result as a lower high on, for example, a daily chart if for no other reason than so fewer people even see it. Similarly, while a lower high at the end of an extended run on, for example, a daily chart might provoke frenzied selling (e.g., AAPL), a lower high after hitting R in a trading range would likely provoke no more than a ho-hum since this is what is expected and has been anticipated ever since price bounced off support.

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How does this look as a long? It is a bit away from the base hence greater danger of a reversal. In any case there are clear levels for stops which make it somewhat easier to handle. Price isn't coming down to close the gap. I would look at it as a sign of strength.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=34793&stc=1&d=1361245525

 

Gringo

5aa711ba93260_VDaily.png.05e9c6cfcb296baabf8724466e35b325.png

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Third, price makes a LH. If price had reached R with no hesitations, this would be a more attractive short than it is otherwise because of all that sellers have to wade through in order to gain any momentum. The midpoint of the last rally, which happened to coincide with the top of the hinge, was one such hurdle. But price still has to work its way through the congestion that created the hinge. In any case, if long, the LH is sufficient justification for exiting, though one might also have exited when price first hit R.

 

Thought I would answer my-self here, and correct me if I am wrong. I believe when you mention, "if price had reached resistance with no hesitations it would've been a more attractive short", you were referring to the Hinge in Platinum, not that small hesitation on the test.

 

I can see why you would mention this, as we have seen with Platinum, price approached R but formed a Hinge before the level.

 

If we compare this with silver for instance, that also reached the top of the range but a few months ago, we can see how it went up in a straight line, and there was no Hinge or other congestion to deal with, so the LH was a much more attractive short.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=34797&stc=1&d=1361272098

 

Makes total sense now, cheers DB.

Silver.JPG.e1770f10fd4e223f7a8e8003bdaa7866.JPG

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    • Date: 4th April 2025.   USDJPY Falls to 25-Week Low as Safe Havens Surge and Markets Eye NFP Data.   Safe haven currencies and the traditional alternative to the US Dollar continue to increase in value while the Dollar declines. Investors traditionally opt to invest in the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc at times of uncertainty and when they wish to avoid the Dollar. The Japanese Yen continues to be the best-performing currency of the week and of the day. Will this continue to be the case after today’s US employment figures?   USDJPY - NFP Data And Trade Negotiations The USDJPY is currently trading at a 25-week low and is witnessing one of its strongest declines this week. The exchange rate is no longer obtaining indications from the RSI that the price is oversold. The current bullish swing is obtaining indications of divergence as the price fails to form a higher high. Therefore, short-term momentum is in favour of the US Dollar, but there are still signs the Japanese Yen can regain momentum quickly.       USDJPY 1-Hour Chart     The price movement of the exchange rate in both the short and long term will depend on 3 factors. Today’s US employment data, next week’s inflation rate and most importantly the progress of negotiations between the US and trade partners. If today’s Unemployment Rate increases above 4.1%, the reading will be the highest seen so far in 2025. Currently, the market expects the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.1% and the Non-Farm Payroll Change to add 137,000 jobs. The average NFP reading this year so far has been 194,000.   If data does not meet expectations, US investors may continue to increase exposure away from the Dollar and to other safe-haven assets. Previously investors were expecting only 2 rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve, however, most investors now expect up to 4. If today’s employment data deteriorates, economists advise the Federal Reserve may opt to cut interest rates sooner.   Therefore, it is important to note that today’s NFP will influence the USDJPY to a large extent. Whereas in the longer-term, trade negotiations will steal the spotlight. If trade partners are able to negotiate the US Dollar can correct back upwards. Whereas, if other countries retaliate and do not negotiate the US Dollar will remain weak.   USDJPY - The Yen and the Bank of Japan The Japanese Yen is the best-performing currency in 2025 increasing by 6.70% so far. Risk indicators such as the VIX and High-Low Indexes continue to worsen which is positive for the JPY as a safe haven currency.   Yesterday Japan released March business activity data that came in weaker than expected: the Services PMI dropped from 53.7 to 50.0, while the Composite PMI fell from 52.0 to 48.9. The data is the lowest in two years. These figures could hinder further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. However, most economists still expect the Bank Of Japan to hike at least once more. It's also important to note, that even if the BOJ opts for a prolonged pause, a cut is not likely.   Additionally, a 24% tariff was imposed on Japanese exports to the US yesterday. Prime Minister Mr Ishiba expressed disappointment over Japan's failure to secure a tariff exemption and pledged support measures to help domestic industries manage the impact.   Key Takeaway Points: US Dollar Weakens, Safe Havens Rise: The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc continue to gain as investors shift away from the US Dollar. USDJPY Under Pressure: USDJPY trades at a 25-week low, with short-term momentum favouring the Dollar but long-term trends pointing to potential Yen strength. NFP and Unemployment Crucial: Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment figures will heavily influence short-term USDJPY. On the other hand, trade negotiations will dictate longer-term trends. Japan Faces Mixed Signals: Despite weak PMI data and new US tariffs, the Japanese Yen remains strong. Economists expect at least one more rate hike from the Bank of Japan, but no cuts are in sight. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • YUM Yum Brands stock, nice breakout with volume +34.5%, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?YUM
    • Date: 3rd April 2025.   Gold Prices Pull Back After Record High as Traders Eye Trump’s Tariffs.   Key Takeaways:   Gold prices retreated after hitting a record high of $3,167.57 per ounce due to profit-taking. President Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, escalating trade tensions. Gold remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal. Investors await US non-farm payroll data for further market direction. Fed rate cut bets and weaker US Treasury yields underpin gold’s bullish outlook. Gold Prices Retreat from Record Highs Amid Profit-Taking Gold prices saw a pullback on Thursday as traders opted to take profits following a historic surge. Spot gold declined 0.4% to $3,122.10 per ounce as of 0710 GMT, retreating from its fresh all-time high of $3,167.57. Meanwhile, US gold futures slipped 0.7% to $3,145.00 per ounce, reflecting broader market uncertainty over economic and geopolitical developments.   The recent rally was largely fueled by concerns over escalating trade tensions after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new import tariffs. The 10% baseline tariff on all goods entering the US further deepened the global trade conflict, intensifying investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, as traders locked in gains from the surge, prices saw a modest retracement.   Trump’s Tariffs and Their Market Implications On Wednesday, Trump introduced a sweeping tariff policy imposing a 10% baseline duty on all imports, with significantly higher tariffs on select nations. While this move was aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing, it sent shockwaves across global markets, fueling inflation concerns and heightening trade war fears.   Gold’s Role Amid Trade War Escalations Despite the widespread tariff measures, the White House clarified that reciprocal tariffs do not apply to gold, energy, and ‘certain minerals that are not available in the US’. This exemption suggests that central banks and institutional investors may continue favouring gold as a hedge against economic instability. One of the key factors supporting gold is the slowdown that these tariffs could cause in the US economy, which raises the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold is currently in a pure momentum trade. Market participants are on the sidelines and until we see a significant shakeout, this momentum could persist.   Impact on the US Dollar and Bond Yields Gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar, and the latest developments have pushed the dollar to its weakest level since October 2024. Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut, as the tariffs could weigh on economic growth.   Additionally, US Treasury yields have plummeted, reflecting growing recession fears. Lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it a more attractive investment.         Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Gold’s recent rally has pushed it into overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. This indicates a potential short-term pullback before the uptrend resumes. The immediate support level lies at $3,115, aligning with the Asian session low. A further decline could bring gold towards the $3,100 psychological level, which has previously acted as a strong support zone. Below this, the $3,076–$3,057 region represents a critical weekly support range where buyers may re-enter the market. In the event of a more significant correction, $3,000 stands as a major psychological floor.   On the upside, gold faces immediate resistance at $3,149. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a retest of the record high at $3,167. If bullish momentum persists, the next target is the $3,200 psychological barrier, which could pave the way for further gains. Despite the recent pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, with dips likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.   Looking Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls and Fed Policy Traders are closely monitoring Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. A weaker-than-expected jobs report may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut, further boosting gold prices.   Other key economic data releases, such as jobless claims and the ISM Services PMI, may also impact market sentiment in the short term. However, with rising geopolitical uncertainties, trade tensions, and a weakening US dollar, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong.   Conclusion: While short-term profit-taking may trigger minor corrections, gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish. As global trade tensions mount and the Federal Reserve leans toward a more accommodative stance, gold could see further gains in the months ahead.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock, nice buying at the 187.26 triple+ support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
    • DELL Dell Technologies stock, good day moving higher off the 90.99 double support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?DELL
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