Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Which brings us back to your lines. First, support is only support if it provides support. Price has crossed back and forth over 30 repeatedly for two weeks. But even so, if you had taken the short and been stopped out by a rally off 30, what's the worst that could have happened? While you're waiting for opportunities that are in your forecasts, you're ignoring those that are being presented to you in the moment. Forecasts are possibilities, even probabilities. What's in front of you is a certainty.

 

Db,

 

I have 2 questions:

 

1. While surfing what weight should be given to small TRs (20 poins or less) S/R levels?

 

2. After a Level is crossed back and forth, one should discard it as SR?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(a) I am afraid I don't know how one can select part of someones reply (as a quote) ... is this laid out somewhere on the website?

 

(b) we appear to be edging ever closer to the globex highs (ellipse 9). How the mkt reacts (does it accept the higher prices, or will it reject these higher levels), the jury is still out.

 

© apart from the 1484.25 highs already referred to, if we fail from around current levels, we would fall back within the yellow wedge pattern.

 

http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1358876455729.png

 

I still believe we are seeing a 're-test' prior to a fall

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Db,

 

I have 2 questions:

 

1. While surfing what weight should be given to small TRs (20 poins or less) S/R levels?

 

"Surfing" is just a term that I use for tracking and trading price at the tick level, which is what W's Studies in Tape Reading and Part 2 of his course are all about, partly because it's compatible with W's current-and-eddy metaphors and partly because I need the shorthand. And anyone who's observed a 1t chart for a minute or so will understand what it's all about.

 

But to answer your first question, none. A 20pt range at the tick level is as wide as the Grand Canyon. But if one is talking about a 20pt range at the daily level, it's the same drill: wait until price nears or hits an extreme, then enter based on the smallest interval possible (if one is experimenting using online free charts, that will be 1m). If price is not near either of the extremes AND has shown no inclination to respect any other prior S/R, then one has to look for whatever S/R and/or patterns present themselves within the range. These can't be foreseen, but that's often the nature of intraday trading.

 

For example, if you look at what price did after I closed up shop yesterday, it neared the top of the daily range at the end of the trading session, then drifted sideways for several hours, displaying very minor "waves" until midnight, when it entered the resistance zone. When it did so, the subsequent selling wave was considerably longer than the buying wave. The subsequent buying wave was (1) shorter, (2) could not reclaim half the downdraft, and (3) appeared to find R at the level of the base which had formed the previous afternoon/evening. If one weren't there to take the short, then those levels are irrelevant to any subsequent trades unless price returns to those levels. The long is taken at 0400 not because price has reached the midpoint of the range -- though that may be a factor -- but because the waves show that the downmove is done. Price can therefore move either sideways or up.

 

As we then near the open, one might notice that price is approaching the 0700 swing high. If he isn't already long, he can pretend that he is. When price then hits this level at the open and forms a selling wave that is shorter than the buying wave but followed by a buying wave that is shorter still, creating a lower high, he can then exit his long, if he has one, or just go short, at around 39.

 

Support and resistance do play a role, then, but they won't necessarily be found until one has gone through the looking glass into the midst of the trading day.

 

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=34198&stc=1&d=1358878075

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=34199&stc=1&d=1358878623

 

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=34200&stc=1&d=1358879244

 

 

2. After a Level is crossed back and forth, one should discard it as SR?

 

Probably. If it isn't acting as S/R, then there's no reason to classify it as S/R.

 

-

Image33.png.5c98c4be273c35ce7a8dd7b3e2aff59f.png

Image35.png.12323b8c6f15bd22d876610a6382bd22.png

Image36.thumb.png.d8ac62bda3846a0d5db4991f7b9053c6.png

Edited by DbPhoenix

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
(a) I am afraid I don't know how one can select part of someones reply (as a quote) ... is this laid out somewhere on the website?

 

Just click "Quote"

 

(b) we appear to be edging ever closer to the globex highs (ellipse 9). How the mkt reacts (does it accept the higher prices, or will it reject these higher levels), the jury is still out.

 

© apart from the 1484.25 highs already referred to, if we fail from around current levels, we would fall back within the yellow wedge pattern.

 

http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1358876455729.png

 

I still believe we are seeing a 're-test' prior to a fall

 

If you want to participate in the thread, that's great. Note, however, that it's about "trading". So

 

how would you trade this?

 

What if price rejects the previous high?

 

What if it doesn't?

 

If price falls from here, what will you do and when and why?

 

As for the retest, what you believe is not pertinent since price doesn't care. What will you do if the retest succeeds? If it fails?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've recently made somewhat of a plunge and began watching a range chart with a .25 range with volume. It's not a 1 tick chart (can not use because i can not zoom out far enough) and even though a .25 range bar chart is still a summary it has been extremely eye opening. It may seem "noisy" in the beginning but after giving it some time it has greatly helped with trading more of the Wyckoff approach. Thanks DB.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just click "Quote"

 

 

 

If you want to participate in the thread, that's great. Note, however, that it's about "trading". So

 

how would you trade this?

 

What if price rejects the previous high?

 

What if it doesn't?

 

If price falls from here, what will you do and when and why?

 

As for the retest, what you believe is not pertinent since price doesn't care. What will you do if the retest succeeds? If it fails?

 

Db,

 

I went short at 1484 a few minutes ago with a tight 1.5 point stop .

 

We are about to have supper and then we are going out, so I shall let me trade run or get stopped out (the mkt decides)

 

 

David

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Db,

 

I went short at 1484 a few minutes ago with a tight 1.5 point stop .

 

We are about to have supper and then we are going out, so I shall let me trade run or get stopped out (the mkt decides)

 

 

David

 

The market decides whether it is going to go up or down, but the trader decides what he's going to do about it.

 

In any case, a Wyckoff trader would not short an uptrend because of what he thought or felt or believed; he'd short only when the market (price) told him to.

 

Which may sound snooty, but that's a large part of what distinguishes the Wyckoff approach from most else. It is what it is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Db,

 

I believed that 1484 represented a reasonable area to go short from, but clearly it did not turn out to be so. Hence the stop.

 

As I said I shall try and read up more on Wyckoff whilst we are on holiday.

 

Cheers,

 

David

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

didn't really know where to post this as my time scale is the first 90 minutes of the session this might be a good place.

 

I have started my backtesting over the last few nights and have just browsed through 20 odd 1 minute charts for the first 90 mins, the dates are jan 14th to feb 15th 2011 and i don't seem to have come across many hinges, i was expecting to find more than i have considering the amount that came apparent while sim trading in october/november 2012, while in chat.

 

just wondered if anyone else had back tested this period and if i am missing something, i am wondering if they are easier to locate in real time

 

bloc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

-

 

Buying and selling waves become equivalent at the open. The trader can either wait it out to see who wins, or exit and re-enter.

 

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=34216&stc=1&d=1358954061

 

 

Incidentally, the 15m bar interval is used purely for illustration as anything smaller would be next to impossible to read in a message board post unless it were formatted in Cinemascope.

 

-

Image39.png.98cd051b6eb57562a20e6404cf222fe4.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My recount for today's, action:

 

All is hindsight so I don´t know if this should go in the CSW thread.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=34219&stc=1&d=1358959448

 

1. I did not take the long from what looks like an inverse H&S, guess that was a good entry point as we were testing the top of the range, a SL was broken and a HL appeared.

 

2. This moment was confusing, as there was a break of the LSL and a LL, In RT my thinking was SAR, but that would have taken away some profits. (Comments are welcome about how to deal with this kind of behavior)

 

3. The behavior was almost the same as in 2, the difference was that this time the sellers were decided, perhaps 64 was an old R level that I did no see?. Is there any obvious difference between 2 and 3 that I am not seeing?, in this case an entry would have yielded a decent profit.

 

4. I see a V reversal as there was no HL before the break of LSH, have not really studied these pattern so no comments here. As a note, my analysis was that 53 was the MP of the opening TR.

 

5. The same case that i had in 2, a Break above LSH, and then a break below LSL. (Observations welcome)

5aa711a78af4c_NQ03-13(30Tick)23_01_2013.thumb.jpg.b6ef57bc0f37923e850b032756fb3c8f.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
My recount for today's, action:

 

1. I did not take the long from what looks like an inverse H&S, guess that was a good entry point as we were testing the top of the range, a SL was broken and a HL appeared.

 

2. This moment was confusing, as there was a break of the LSL and a LL, In RT my thinking was SAR, but that would have taken away some profits. (Comments are welcome about how to deal with this kind of behavior)

 

Don't change strategy in the middle of a session. If a break of the demand line is necessary, then stick to it.

 

3. The behavior was almost the same as in 2, the difference was that this time the sellers were decided, perhaps 64 was an old R level that I did no see?. Is there any obvious difference between 2 and 3 that I am not seeing?, in this case an entry would have yielded a decent profit.

 

Again, if a break of the demand line is necessary, then stick to it. If you draw a parallel supply line, you'll see that 3 just touched it. The "H&S" is significant only in hindsight. If you shop around bar intervals, you can find H&S tops and bottoms just about anywhere. If you had entered where you were supposed to at 0938, you'd have nearly a 10pt profit even if you waited for a break of your supply line.

 

As to the short entry, that's at the first pullback, at 2760.

 

4. I see a V reversal as there was no HL before the break of LSH, have not really studied these pattern so no comments here. As a note, my analysis was that 53 was the MP of the opening TR.

 

5. The same case that i had in 2, a Break above LSH, and then a break below LSL. (Observations welcome)

...............................................

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Copper is getting closer to the upside breakout point, however, we already beyond 2/3s of the way from base to Apex, which increases the chances of a failed hinge.

 

If there is an expansion of volatility and price over the next few days, the hinge will serve its purpose, if not it could develop into a small range.

5aa711a7a46df_Copperweekly.png.194c901d9c7d075be6c0d6c6b4536ea3.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There isn't much time in chat for elaboration. In fact, uv prb ntcd tht I uz a lt of abbrv n my psts thr.

 

But the issue here is not so much the distance to R. As you point out, one cannot know in advance whether R will hold or not. The more important issue is that the entry is at 14, and if you wait, then your price risk increases substantially. If you enter at 15 rather than 14, your profit potential is less, your chance of being faded is greater, your chance of being trapped inside a hinge is greater, etc.

 

This is not to say that you shouldn't take it, but to remind that there are risks involved in not taking the proper entry that should be considered before taking action. And even if the trade works out, one should not feel too satisfied as the market has just taught you a bad habit, and it will make you pay at some other point in the future.

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
-

 

Regarding my comments above, this may or may not help:

 

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=34225&stc=1&d=1358972468

 

Thank you DB,

 

This is helpful as always. Will look for ways to include your comments in my strategy design as I am sure they will improve my results as they have done so far.

 

I am now on the look for something that perhaps is not possible to get (Avoid the Chop) and also with a doubt about how close must the DL or the SL follow price.

 

The greatest challenge so far, has been to avoid the Chop in RT, the two examples provided in the chart today with the word "confusing" where the kind of environment where I lose the most money on back testing, because by the time I realize there is no FT, i am already in the red (2 points per trade of Stop Loss is the average). Will have to find a way to minimize this problem in the future.

 

As an example here are over 100 trades, where the exit is the break of the Last Swing High or Low. As I enter a period of choppiness I start experimenting what i have called "confusing" behavior in today´s chart, and that starts draining my account, whit what I consider an unacceptable drawdown.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=34226&stc=1&d=1358975971

 

I have also experimented with an exit at the break of the DL or the SL, and got the following results:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=34227&stc=1&d=1358976185

 

In this case, the SL was adjusted to follow price touching the lows or the highs of the swings that were equal of larger than 1 point, but I don't know if I am following price too close and not allowing prices to breath, an example of the confusion I usually get in RT is the following:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=34233&stc=1&d=1358977398

 

Anyway, this were just some thinking out loud, in case any other member in the forum has experienced the same problems and perhaps has a different perspective on the issue.

BLS.png.aac8a9206594c844df9424c4176a25e9.png

Bsdl.png.3d5b61dba451c42625c17b111d28c7fc.png

5aa711a83d8e6_NQ03-13(30Tick)23_01_2013tl.thumb.jpg.498c4adb68de8281405d132cfee844c5.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After buyers met R at 68, the market collapsed and we are at the bottom of the TR we were just trying to get out. A hell of a RET :haha: :haha:

 

My levels for today:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=34237&stc=1&d=1359030218

5aa711a859428_NQ03-13(10000Volume)24_01_2013.thumb.jpg.afa3fb44456ec04827fd0765336b037f.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
After buyers met R at 68, the market collapsed and we are at the bottom of the TR we were just trying to get out. A hell of a RET

 

I suspect it had less to do with any kind of R and more to do with AAPL, just as the pop out had mostly to do with GOOG.

 

Keyholes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DB thanks,

 

I was aware of Apple, just did not want to point out a fundamental issue in the W forum.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=34241&stc=1&d=1359034549

 

What I meant was that 68 -70 was a level of R (top of an oct TR), and prices reached that level before defining a new course, I guess people were not really defined about how to interpret the news (better eps but disappointing income), so at first sellers pushed but were stopped around 54, then buyers got exited and pushed for a 14 points run, then after a 50% pullback they failed to hold a HH (DT). Then a break of LSL and a strong downwave were a confirmation of news being bad. Then the last train for bears was the RET to 60, from then we all know what happened.

 

What I was pointing out, was that even if one is not aware of the news, or how to compute the EPS and the income figures in a valuation model, just following PA gives an edge.

5aa711a8781bb_NQ03-13(30Tick)23_01_2013.thumb.jpg.62b0ca25f44354493c0a07fdd22eaa75.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By vishnux
      Hey guys , what are the main things you look for to detect if the consolidation area is accumulating or distributing ? 
      1 ) I see springs in top , still markup happens and it becomes accumulation area and vice versa
      2) There is lots of volume absorption in support line and still markdown occurs.
      3) sometimes in market high / low it becomes re-accumulation  / re-distribution
      Is there any clear way to find it ? 
    • By millonmethod
      Hello everyone!
      I am an advanced trader, with many years of experience (about 15 years - 10 living exclusively from this)
      I am going to give you some tips that you must know:
      There are going to be many people who tell you that trade is easy, that with only crossiing a line  with another one you will win a lot of money.... and that´s not true.  No, Sir, reality is far away from that. Many people who start arrive here with the hope that someone "gives them" a free method, they watch youtube videos thinking that this will give them the "strategy" and in a few days they realize that it does not work for them - they lose money - and then They go looking for a new one ... and so on. YES, IT´S TRUE YOU EARN IN TRADING, A LOT. BUT THINK: for a few to win (10% + any BROKER) many others must lose (90% people). YOU MUST HAVE A MONEY MANAGMENT FORMULA ( you can email me) People study so many years to live on this, not because they are dumb, but to know what they do, when, and have absolute effectiveness. It´s very easy to get lost here: do not disperse, jumping from one to another strategy WILL NEVER give you money, it will only waste your time and make you nervous when trading. PEOPLE WHO CHANGE THEIR METHOD CONSTANTLY : LOOOOSE ALWAYS.   If you have the knowledge to develop it, take your time and do it.  Always try it first on DEMO for at least 2 weeks! If not: search to buy a solid strategy (no you tube videos pleassse ! Avoid losing money! ) This is like any business, it requires some capital to start (capital = money in the broker + solid made /purchased strategy) If you are lost: I RECOMMEND YOU NOT TO WASTE TIME IN YOUTUBE, JOIN PEOPLE WHO HAVE EXPERIENCE AND IF YOU ARE GOING TO BUY A METHOD ... PLEASE !!!! DO NOT BUY 10 BAD AND CHEAP METHODS, SAVE MONEY AND BUY ONLY 1 BUT EXCLUSIVE AND MUST ALLWAYS HAVE SUPPORT !!!!!  Do not buy Signals! They never keep up with constant profits! One week will win and the next will lose. Nothing that does not depend absolutely on you will give you the money you are looking for. And if you do not have a strategy (made or purchased) do not even try PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE: DO NOT USE REAL MONEY! AT LEAST 2 WEEK DEMO FREE HELP HERE!!!!!  IF YOU FOLLOW MY ADVICE YOU WILL BE PART OF THAT 10% WINNER, email me.
      Have a nice trading day
       
       
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 4th April 2025.   USDJPY Falls to 25-Week Low as Safe Havens Surge and Markets Eye NFP Data.   Safe haven currencies and the traditional alternative to the US Dollar continue to increase in value while the Dollar declines. Investors traditionally opt to invest in the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc at times of uncertainty and when they wish to avoid the Dollar. The Japanese Yen continues to be the best-performing currency of the week and of the day. Will this continue to be the case after today’s US employment figures?   USDJPY - NFP Data And Trade Negotiations The USDJPY is currently trading at a 25-week low and is witnessing one of its strongest declines this week. The exchange rate is no longer obtaining indications from the RSI that the price is oversold. The current bullish swing is obtaining indications of divergence as the price fails to form a higher high. Therefore, short-term momentum is in favour of the US Dollar, but there are still signs the Japanese Yen can regain momentum quickly.       USDJPY 1-Hour Chart     The price movement of the exchange rate in both the short and long term will depend on 3 factors. Today’s US employment data, next week’s inflation rate and most importantly the progress of negotiations between the US and trade partners. If today’s Unemployment Rate increases above 4.1%, the reading will be the highest seen so far in 2025. Currently, the market expects the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.1% and the Non-Farm Payroll Change to add 137,000 jobs. The average NFP reading this year so far has been 194,000.   If data does not meet expectations, US investors may continue to increase exposure away from the Dollar and to other safe-haven assets. Previously investors were expecting only 2 rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve, however, most investors now expect up to 4. If today’s employment data deteriorates, economists advise the Federal Reserve may opt to cut interest rates sooner.   Therefore, it is important to note that today’s NFP will influence the USDJPY to a large extent. Whereas in the longer-term, trade negotiations will steal the spotlight. If trade partners are able to negotiate the US Dollar can correct back upwards. Whereas, if other countries retaliate and do not negotiate the US Dollar will remain weak.   USDJPY - The Yen and the Bank of Japan The Japanese Yen is the best-performing currency in 2025 increasing by 6.70% so far. Risk indicators such as the VIX and High-Low Indexes continue to worsen which is positive for the JPY as a safe haven currency.   Yesterday Japan released March business activity data that came in weaker than expected: the Services PMI dropped from 53.7 to 50.0, while the Composite PMI fell from 52.0 to 48.9. The data is the lowest in two years. These figures could hinder further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. However, most economists still expect the Bank Of Japan to hike at least once more. It's also important to note, that even if the BOJ opts for a prolonged pause, a cut is not likely.   Additionally, a 24% tariff was imposed on Japanese exports to the US yesterday. Prime Minister Mr Ishiba expressed disappointment over Japan's failure to secure a tariff exemption and pledged support measures to help domestic industries manage the impact.   Key Takeaway Points: US Dollar Weakens, Safe Havens Rise: The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc continue to gain as investors shift away from the US Dollar. USDJPY Under Pressure: USDJPY trades at a 25-week low, with short-term momentum favouring the Dollar but long-term trends pointing to potential Yen strength. NFP and Unemployment Crucial: Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment figures will heavily influence short-term USDJPY. On the other hand, trade negotiations will dictate longer-term trends. Japan Faces Mixed Signals: Despite weak PMI data and new US tariffs, the Japanese Yen remains strong. Economists expect at least one more rate hike from the Bank of Japan, but no cuts are in sight. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • YUM Yum Brands stock, nice breakout with volume +34.5%, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?YUM
    • Date: 3rd April 2025.   Gold Prices Pull Back After Record High as Traders Eye Trump’s Tariffs.   Key Takeaways:   Gold prices retreated after hitting a record high of $3,167.57 per ounce due to profit-taking. President Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, escalating trade tensions. Gold remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal. Investors await US non-farm payroll data for further market direction. Fed rate cut bets and weaker US Treasury yields underpin gold’s bullish outlook. Gold Prices Retreat from Record Highs Amid Profit-Taking Gold prices saw a pullback on Thursday as traders opted to take profits following a historic surge. Spot gold declined 0.4% to $3,122.10 per ounce as of 0710 GMT, retreating from its fresh all-time high of $3,167.57. Meanwhile, US gold futures slipped 0.7% to $3,145.00 per ounce, reflecting broader market uncertainty over economic and geopolitical developments.   The recent rally was largely fueled by concerns over escalating trade tensions after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new import tariffs. The 10% baseline tariff on all goods entering the US further deepened the global trade conflict, intensifying investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, as traders locked in gains from the surge, prices saw a modest retracement.   Trump’s Tariffs and Their Market Implications On Wednesday, Trump introduced a sweeping tariff policy imposing a 10% baseline duty on all imports, with significantly higher tariffs on select nations. While this move was aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing, it sent shockwaves across global markets, fueling inflation concerns and heightening trade war fears.   Gold’s Role Amid Trade War Escalations Despite the widespread tariff measures, the White House clarified that reciprocal tariffs do not apply to gold, energy, and ‘certain minerals that are not available in the US’. This exemption suggests that central banks and institutional investors may continue favouring gold as a hedge against economic instability. One of the key factors supporting gold is the slowdown that these tariffs could cause in the US economy, which raises the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold is currently in a pure momentum trade. Market participants are on the sidelines and until we see a significant shakeout, this momentum could persist.   Impact on the US Dollar and Bond Yields Gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar, and the latest developments have pushed the dollar to its weakest level since October 2024. Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut, as the tariffs could weigh on economic growth.   Additionally, US Treasury yields have plummeted, reflecting growing recession fears. Lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it a more attractive investment.         Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Gold’s recent rally has pushed it into overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. This indicates a potential short-term pullback before the uptrend resumes. The immediate support level lies at $3,115, aligning with the Asian session low. A further decline could bring gold towards the $3,100 psychological level, which has previously acted as a strong support zone. Below this, the $3,076–$3,057 region represents a critical weekly support range where buyers may re-enter the market. In the event of a more significant correction, $3,000 stands as a major psychological floor.   On the upside, gold faces immediate resistance at $3,149. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a retest of the record high at $3,167. If bullish momentum persists, the next target is the $3,200 psychological barrier, which could pave the way for further gains. Despite the recent pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, with dips likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.   Looking Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls and Fed Policy Traders are closely monitoring Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. A weaker-than-expected jobs report may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut, further boosting gold prices.   Other key economic data releases, such as jobless claims and the ISM Services PMI, may also impact market sentiment in the short term. However, with rising geopolitical uncertainties, trade tensions, and a weakening US dollar, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong.   Conclusion: While short-term profit-taking may trigger minor corrections, gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish. As global trade tensions mount and the Federal Reserve leans toward a more accommodative stance, gold could see further gains in the months ahead.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock, nice buying at the 187.26 triple+ support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
    • DELL Dell Technologies stock, good day moving higher off the 90.99 double support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?DELL
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.