Trading The Wyckoff Way

[pjohnm 10]

14.11 Pre Mkt

 

Price still at the bottom of the trend channel.

Buyers appear reluctant to take price above 2600, likewise S at 2560 has held firm, another break below may be significant.

 

R was somewhat soft during the previous days session, with 84 providing the most reliable level.

 

Following the open, I would also note that price fell back to S at 2560 from the MP of the TR at 2584, rather than test the top of the range after the MP, a clear indication of weakness.

[Niko 10]

I was thinking about posting an update when I found yours G...

 

These are my thoughts

 

 

Oil is still on a trading range between 83 and 87 right now is around the MP in 85,7. There is no much to do but to wait until it reaches the upper or the lower end of the range. As for trend, and from a bigger perspective we are still in the channel that started in the last days of September.

 

A break below 83.81 would take us to 82 and then 80 and 79. In case buyers manage to break R at 87.6 then 88.5 and then 90.3 would be the next targets.

Edited November 14, 2012 by Niko

[Gringo 10]

USD/CHF Weekly:

 

Longer term demand line was broken in September. Price is attempting to head back to the previous high at 1.0000. From the fanning, to me it appears it might get difficult to do so as momentum seems to be waning.

 

Notice the lower low before breaking above the supply line. There wasn't much of a pause during this drop from 1.0000 high. A sign of some weakness.

 

A short would be reasonable when price weakens during this rise. Ideally, I would prefer the price to rise a bit more, but it is already trying to break above the potential resistance level 0.95 right now. Price could tumble if this level or a bit higher supply showed up.

 

0.9000 and 0.9250 levels could be potential S/R levels below the current price level.

 

I am only comfortable with possible shorts here. Longs at the moment are not looking feasible to me at least on the weekly chart. Perhaps looking closer up at the dailies might show shorter term longs.

 

 

Gringo

Edited November 15, 2012 by Gringo

[Niko 10]

After a cross below yest level of S at 38 the market kept falling until S was found around 25.

 

In the daily chart the market is at the channel low and nearing a S at 514.

 

 

The closest S/R level is 23 if it holds, then R could be found at:

 

38

48

60

69

 

If 23 does not hold and the market keeps trending lowers then S could be found at:

 

14

98

78

 

Bellow 98 is getting harder to spot S, I am using Feb and Jan TRs, any ideas would be appreciated.

Edited November 15, 2012 by Niko

[DbPhoenix 42]

I suspect that no one took me seriously when I said that we could see 2520. Past that, the most likely target is the correction low at 2434.

 

Ignore the hysteria being expressed in various posts and watch for climactic action.

 

Db

[pjohnm 10]

15.11.12

The daily chart shows the trend, with S at 2520 and 2500.

 

The fall from 85 has created a number levels that may act as R in relation to an upmove from the pre mkt lows:

 

50 swing low from 13.11.12

55 MP of downmove

61 bottom of last trading range

[boru 10]

15 min chart , the levels are noted.Below the TR at 2527 Its getting impossible for me to see any levels.with my data. May have to switch to something with more historical data.

[pjohnm 10]

15 min chart , the levels are noted.Below the TR at 2527 Its getting impossible for me to see any levels.with my data. May have to switch to something with more historical data.

 

Below 27, I'm looking at the July TR which provided S at 20. Beyond that I'd be on the look out for climactic action such as a violent downmove followed by at least equal upmove, i.e, looking for the market to provide a clue, or S to be provided by the big round number at 2500.

[tomerok 10]

Long range view : Sellers breached through the long range DL

A clear medium range SL with a steeper angle than the long range SL was formed in the 5-6 days

Price was trending down yesterday, I could not find any verified S to explain the halt of the decent

 

Areas of interest

2585

2576-71

2555 – hinge mp

2526 – LOD

2510

 

 

Tomer

 

 

 

[Niko 10]

My levels for today in the TIF thread were 23 and 38, did not have the 34,31,28 levels that appear on the chart in yellow as those correspond to a premarket TR.

 

 

My analysis for today's action:

 

1. The market opened within the pre-market TR between 28 and 31. After testing supply at 34, sellers managed to take prices below the MP of this TR where S was found rapidly at 29, at this point buyers showed strength, and managed to move the market swiftly towards R at 38.

2. At first, it looked as is R would not hold, but just after R was crossed sellers started pressing prices and the upswings started to contract. At 41 the buyers finally lost control and prices started descending towards S at 38.

3. The first sign of weakness was the way in which 38 was crossed, without interference from buyers until 35.

4. Then a failure of buyers to take prices above 38 gave the final weakness confirmation before sellers managed to take decisive action (smoother downswings). From there, sellers kept control of the market, crossing through the premarket TR without much difficulty, except some minor resting spells.

5. When S was reached at 23, buyers started coming in, making longer upswings and finally a DB around 10:00. From there they took control, and rapidly managed to take prices up in long and smooth upswings. Once again the premarket TR provided some congestion on the way up but it was easily overcome.

6. After reaching R, buyers did not manage to break above the opening high, and once again, after a Lower high around 10:20 sellers started selling with decision making longer down waves. Between 10:27 and 10:45 the TR provided S, but at 10:45 this S was broken and prices fell with a small RET to R at 28 from where sellers launched themselves towards S at 23.

7. By 11:00 prices were resting around S at 23.

[Gringo 10]

Market again dropped proving the value of not going long until strength manifests first. Since price has been dropping and quite strongly, keep an eye out for some kind of climatic action. For us simple folks, break of supply line is the event that would get our minds to start searching for possible longs. Of course shorts have to be careful with such significant drop.

 

59,60 and 62 areas are potential support levels.

 

Drop has been far steeper and faster than many could have anticipated. It was harder to stay in short positions and avoid initiating long positions because every dropped looked like an opportunity to get in before the rebound.

 

For educational purposes this has been a perfect opportunity to learn the value of inaction as a weapon. The idea is to let someone else use their money to find the bottom. Let the demand and supply show their hand before betting. Does this mean if there's a furious rise from here we might miss out on that rise? Yes, we might miss the rise if the rise ends up coming in the from of a V bottom. To enter at the most opportune time is more important than entering at the bottom. It's the price we play to reduce our risk.

 

As a wise trader reminded me recently: Cover the risk and the reward will take care of itself. You control the risk. The market controls the reward.

 

 

 

 

 

Gringo

[tomerok 10]

Here's my journal for today

WHITE are RT notes, YELLOW are my post analysis notes

when i decided to call it a day price was at 2522 showing no signs of sellers

eventually it descended a little bit more

 

 

Tomer

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

The idea is to let someone else use their money to find the bottom.

 

Like maybe the Catch A Falling Knife people.

 

Db

[Gringo 10]

Tired of this doom and gloom, I stumbled upon an old forgotten friend: RIMM.

 

Have a look and make up your own minds. At least know how to play a hinge before diving in heard first.

 

This stock is showing quite a bit of strength and as is clear from the base has been accumulated already. Perhaps the recent plunge in Q's is keeping it in check, otherwise it seems it's ready to fly.

 

 

 

Gringo

[pjohnm 10]

The attached is an attempt to summarise my notes on the chart. Blue dots denote areas where buyers have upper hand, red for the sellers. I have omitted reference to dl's / sl's and mid points to try and keep the focus on the important action, and to make it easier to refer back to.

[Niko 10]

My levels for the day.

 

 

Price is in a TR between 14 and 28, the longer term view is that price still in a downtrend from yesterday.

 

14 is a daily level, so lots of traders must be watching it and it might be of importance.

 

If 14 is broken, then my levels are:

 

10 Not drawn

98

78

71

 

If 14 holds and prices reverse then the levels to watch would be:

 

23

38

48

60

[Bern 10]

These are the levels I will be initially watching for today. I could add something if there is significant price action prior to opening of regular session:

 

 

2572-74

2553-57

2538-40 mp TR July

2530-34

2523-26

 

2510-13

2498-2500

Below 2498 I am somehow unsure of what prices-areas of support to choose till down 2424-25

 

 

[tomerok 10]

Long Range view has not changed much in the past days, still pressure to the down side

But I can notice smaller down thrusts in the past waves

Price also stopped few point from major S from the past

 

Areas of interest

2550

2540

2534

2526

2513

2510

 

Tomer

 

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

It's worth backing up a bit:

 

 

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

May be time to revisit this thread, four years later. Whether anybody wants to follow the 90% thing or not is up to them. But I want to point out the difference between climactic action in volume and climactic action in price. In 2008, for example, the climactic volume occurred in October. Price did not reach a selling climax until November. And the test did not occur until the following March (the Dow and SPX behaved somewhat differently). There were also climaxes in 2010 and 2011. Studying these will be of benefit when evaluating where we are currently and what we are doing. If nothing else, even the most casual observer will note that current volume is pretty lame.

 

Db

[erierambler 10]

Hi , I still get the "Reply to thread " e-mails for Erierambler and have never replied as this was his thing and as much as I hate to say , Erierambler passed away in Sept /2011 I know if he was here he would still be watching the market , he loved doing it and enjoyed this forum and would be posting . Happy trading !

Mrs . Erierambler

[Gringo 10]

Inspired by Db's call to arms, here is my analysis of the QQQ Daily for the 2008 period. There is lots of information and anybody and everybody is welcome to add their comments and views so that we all learn from it.

 

The line chart was used instead of a bar chart to show the flow of price better instead of getting bogged down in bar by bar analysis.

 

With all the colouring effects, the chart does appear a bit like an artist's rendition on a canvas.

 

 

Gringo

[DbPhoenix 42]

Hi , I still get the "Reply to thread " e-mails for Erierambler and have never replied as this was his thing and as much as I hate to say , Erierambler passed away in Sept /2011 I know if he was here he would still be watching the market , he loved doing it and enjoyed this forum and would be posting . Happy trading !

Mrs . Erierambler

 

My condolences. I had no idea. His contributions were valued by everyone. And as long as TL exists, they will be here to benefit others.

 

Db

[PrymeTyme 10]

a recent action on EU (note the vol. on this chart is Real Vol not Tick its Lots traded on LMAX)

 

 

so we do have Preliminary Support followed by a Selling Climax .. where an automatic raction occured (technical rallie)

 

then the secondary Test wich makes this a SC at first place .. wich happens on low vol

then we can see that price rallies on little effort (dimnishing vo.) showing that sellers are pretty much done .. for the time beeing .. due to the SC where alot of supply/sellers got served/washed out.. etc..

 

then we have another retest of teh lows.. this time the vol is higher then on teh first ST

but we make a higher high..

 

ie, there are buyers confronting sellers and the at least equal worthy , if not gaining the upper hand.. atm..

 

Click Attached Thumbnail for bigger pic..

 

cheers

[Tannism 10]

Mrs. Erierambler,

Thank you for letting us know. Some of us have "known" him and learned from him for a very long time.

My condolences.

Tannis