Trading The Wyckoff Way

[tomerok 10]

areas of interest

 

2668

2657

2651 -mp

2646

2639 - mp

2631

 

 

Tomer.

 

 

[Bern 10]

These are the prices-areas I will be watching today:

 

2676-78

2668-70

2648-50

2640-39 mp y tr

2625-26

2604-05

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=32542&stc=1&d=1351774827

[DbPhoenix 42]

It may also be worth noting that while the NDX has pulled back slightly more than 50% from the previous rally, it pulled back to the same extent in June and rallied from there just fine. And the SPX and Dow are well above their respective 50% correction levels.

 

This is not to say that it can't all fall apart, but, if buyers can get their stuff together, the short-covering could propel the NDX higher quite nicely. The 60ish level is still worth watching.

 

Db

[blocp 10]

here are my charts for today, we have had some ranges on the 10 minute TF, today but I am thinking that it is past ranges that will have more impact as SAR.

[tomerok 10]

As usual notes are on the chart, WHITE are RT notes, YELLOW are my post analysis notes

 

Tomer

 

[Niko 10]

From the TIF post:

 

 

If prices manage to cross the mid point, next levels are 57, 67-69 and 81 that would break the current SL

 

If prices find R in the MP at 50, then 30 is the next level. If 30 is broken we would have to move to July for S at 24 and then go all the way to may for S at 04-07 and then 590.

 

 

 

 

1. Premarket prices went through 50 without major interferences from sellers , after testing 50 again, buyers remained in control represented in longer upwaves and minor steps as they found sellers on the way.

2. By the open we were at the same levels we started yesterday, and in there sellers came in the market changing the stride, but buyers again showed up before prices could reach the MP and supported the market.

3. After hitting small R at 54, prices rose with difficulty towards R at 57, when 57 was finally broken, selling at 59 (the MP from yesterday´s premarket TR) halted the advance. There sellers tried to regain control, but again with difficulty (too bumpy). Sellers were able to stop buyers from advancing but not able to take them away from the last swing MP at 54.

4. Prices finally managed to advance above 57 and after a RET to 57 above 59 without much effort.

5. Then, after testing 59 as S, prices advance and broke above 61, the top of yesterday TR. (During the chat DB talked about a short covering rally, but I am not sure if he was referring to this one in particular). I was speculating about stops being activated, but I really don’t know. After the BO, notice how sellers could not manage to take prices to S again. A signal of strength.

6. Prices then rose to 68 without much interference (my observation is that the waves are smoother, than in the 9:33 9:46 ascents, I am guessing that means less sellers interference). There sellers came in and manage to take prices to the LSH where buyers found an opportunity to come in again.

7. After breaking above the 67-69 congestion area, the struggle between buyers and sellers lasted for 10 minutes. I was thinking that this was it, but then again as DB and G say, you have to trade what you see not what you expect. Prices managed to break above the top of the hinge. One interesting feature about this congestion is that selling waves seem stronger than buying waves, but then the BO was to the Upside with just a small RET.

8. Prices found R at 73, I did not have that area in my premarket analysis.

9. The 78 area was another one I did not have on my radar.

10. Prices finally reached 81, where they found R. I was obsessed about 82 on the chat, but when I reviewed my levels I found out that I had 81 on my levels, so I am not so far away from WD (Gann I mean :haha:)

 

P.S: From now on no more climatic movements, only climactic ones.

[Niko 10]

I was just reviewing today's action through another perspective and wanted to post it. I still don't see anything useful here, but then again, who am I to judge.

 

Just in case someone thinks this might help.

 

 

P.S. Is a 1 tick box 3 box reversal P&F.

[DbPhoenix 42]

P.S: From now on no more climatic movements, only climactic ones.

 

Hey, you know how to spell "lose". That beats most people who live here.

 

Db

[Niko 10]

 

The solution to exits is a simple one: trade as if you were trading five contracts or five lots and abandon the idea of being able to exit with all of them at the exact top or bottom. The goal is to make money, not to prove to oneself what a superior trader one is.

 

Then determine in advance where each of those contracts will be sold. For example, if one is trading support and resistance, sell the first contract at one or the other. Sell the second contract, for example, at the lower high or the break of the trendline, whichever comes first. Sell the third at whatever you didn't sell at for the second. Sell the fourth, for example, at a breach of the last swing low. Leave the fifth, for example, at breakeven.

 

 

Db,

 

I guess I am reading this out of context, but my question regarding this post is the following:

 

Regarding the last contract at with a stop at BE, doesn't this leaves one stuck with a position where one could be taking the opposite side of the market?

[Gringo 10]

7. After breaking above the 67-69 congestion area, the struggle between buyers and sellers lasted for 10 minutes. I was thinking that this was it, but then again as DB and G say, you have to trade what you see not what you expect. Prices managed to break above the top of the hinge. One interesting feature about this congestion is that selling waves seem stronger than buying waves, but then the BO was to the Upside with just a small RET.

 

Is that me? Being mentioned in the same breath as Db in itself is a dream come true! I gotta pay more attention to what I say from now onwards as it might actually turn out to be important.

 

I like the sound of it though, the big G.

 

Gringo

[Gringo 10]

Db,

 

I guess I am reading this out of context, but my question regarding this post is the following:

 

Regarding the last contract at with a stop at BE, doesn't this leaves one stuck with a position where one could be taking the opposite side of the market?

 

Niko,

 

You're right the last one may be held going against the direction of the market but it might not actually have been entered at the start of the move. Just like scaling out, the entries themselves could also have been scaled in, leading to the last contact having an entry closer to the middle or end somewhere.

 

It all boils down to what you are comfortable with and your plan based on that comfort level. Some may enter all contracts at once and for exits use deliberate scaling out, while others may choose to deliberately scale in and deliberately scale out. Find out what you prefer. I am suspecting those who use tick charts or 1 minute or less bar intervals may actually prefer to re-enter rather than let the last contract float in the opposite direction. A person's comfort with how much he wants to be active in managing the trade will determine what the right course of action is.

 

Gringo

Edited November 1, 2012 by Gringo

[DbPhoenix 42]

I'll assume that's the flu talking.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

Db,

 

I guess I am reading this out of context, but my question regarding this post is the following:

 

Regarding the last contract at with a stop at BE, doesn't this leaves one stuck with a position where one could be taking the opposite side of the market?

 

You left off the end of it:

 

Note that (as stated on the chart) this particular sequence is used for those situations where R is indeterminate. If R has instead been determined, the remainder of the trade is exited at the target. Then preparations are made for the next trade, either a continuation into a new range or a reversal back into the old one.

 

If the trend reverses and makes a U-turn, clearly the trader doesn't sit there like a deer in headlights and watch price come all the way back to his entry, Remember that price is always either trending or ranging. Each state is played differently.

 

Db

[Niko 10]

You left off the end of it:

 

 

 

If the trend reverses and makes a U-turn, clearly the trader doesn't sit there like a deer in headlights and watch price come all the way back to his entry, Remember that price is always either trending or ranging. Each state is played differently.

 

Db

 

Db ,

 

You are right I dont know how I missed that part.

[Gringo 10]

Price rose and with conviction. At this time we don't know whether the demand is short term or serious in taking the price up for good. Those on shorter bar intervals probably would have exited after the price broke out decisively out of the mini consolidation (downward channel) on the 2 hr chart. Those who have stops at swing high or LSL are still short or may have reduced some position. And then there are those who are holding all their position to see this first price rise through to ensure it is not just a gimmick to shake shorts out of their positions. Whatever the case, keep in mind price is rising although the trend is down as can be seen by the SL still being intact.

 

Those watching intra-day would have noticed price trending up and barely breaching the DL. It would be prudent to wait and see how price behaves from here onward. So far it hasn't retraced down much and is showing demand in control. Futures are trading in the consolidation range without dropping much which is alluding to possibility of more strength ahead.

 

As Db, mentioned yesterday price rise from around 60 to 70 had a 50% RET back to 65 area before demand re-asserted. The decision making in advance is a tricky business and price is at a place where both bull and bears could be right. It's one's plan and the risk tolerance that determines how much price is allowed to go up before shorts are exited. There are those who would have initiated long positions after the price break out from the consolidation channel.

 

Lets see what price does. Because the SL is intact I am not the kind to initiate long positions just yet. Demand has to show me that it means business and for a sustainable period before I switch from the short bias. This doesn't mean I am not aware of where price is and ready to protect or reduce or exit short positions just because I believe the trend is still pointing down. Those are money management decisions and must be made according to the plan.

 

Weekly chart is showing a normal 50% RET and now some rise. Note though that after the last breakout above 68 price only advanced to 70 and then returned back. This weakness (lack of strength) combined with 70 being an old S/R are negative developments for the market. Nonetheless, price for now has started to rise and we'll have see how much is demand willing to do to deal with swing high, LSL, LSH, and SL for starters.

 

 

 

 

Gringo

[Niko 10]

Prices finally consolidated around 81 premarket (At 7:41 prices were at 86). We are at the edge of a SL that comes from the first week of October, and establishing NSHs.

 

My levels of interest:

 

 

718

706

695 Week high

681

669

657

 

 

If prices manage to break the SL and stay above 81, next level should be 95 and then 06, if the SL holds and prices reverse below 81, first pause is expected at 67-68 followed by 57.

[Niko 10]

 

can anyone tell me how to post a chart in the post not in the attachments box please?

 

Bloc,

 

Instead of just pasting the link in the message, add and the image will show up in the body of the message.

[Niko 10]

Is that me? Being mentioned in the same breath as Db in itself is a dream come true! I gotta pay more attention to what I say from now onwards as it might actually turn out to be important.

 

I like the sound of it though, the big G.

 

Gringo

 

G, I guess your efforts are paying off .

[boru 10]

my observations, the longer term trend is down. Looking at the 60 min I see a tr forming between 2704-2694 and 2606. A break above 2704 could ignite some buying otherwise it is a large tr and there may be some tradeable swings inside

[Niko 10]

Some thoughts:

 

- We are at the MP of the march- may TR at 690.

- DL was broken this week.

- SL still holds

- Price rose yesterday on small volume, what can be interpreted more as weak sellers than as strong buyers.

 

 

Possibilities:

 

Break of 90 level and SL: Next R at 737

REV at 90: Next S at 43

 

Only time will tell

Edited November 2, 2012 by Niko
First chart did not include vol.

[blocp 10]

here is my analysis for today.

 

we seem to have hit the SL that niko pointed out thats on my 1 hour chart, lets see what buyers can do?

Edited November 2, 2012 by blocp
added word....

[DbPhoenix 42]

- DL was broken this week.

- SL still holds

 

The distinctions among DLs, SLs, and TLs continues to elude a number of people, probably because I'm just not explaining it very well, so if I continue to point out inaccuracies, no one should take it personally.

 

The task of Demand and Supply Lines is to track demand and supply. They may also show trend, but that is not their function. Because they are charged with tracking demand and supply, they must, when price takes off on a new tangent, follow price. Here, for example, when price alters course in August and continues on its new angle to September, a new demand line must be drawn to follow it. Otherwise, it has no purpose. Such a demand line would be broken at the end of September and the break would be telling you that the balance bet demand and supply is changing. A trendline, which is what you have, would eventually tell you the same thing, but a month later.

 

All these lines are tools. They are electives, not requireds. If the trader can't tell up from down without them, he should probably go into another line of work. Certainly he ought to at least be able to tell whether or not a move is in trouble without resorting to them. But this is not a problem for you. Take care, however, that you focus primarily on price and not whatever lines you've drawn. In order to avoid being manipulated by them, take them all off when you do a review and look at the chart "clean". You may then be better able to see where the demand/supply balance lies.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

here is my analysis for today.

 

we seem to have hit the SL that niko pointed out thats on my 1 hour chart, lets see what buyers can do?

 

See my response re these lines in the Daily thread.

 

As for your charts, once you've uploaded the image, right-click the link and click "Copy Link Location". Then plant your cursor in the message body wherever you want the image to be and left-click the image icon (the postcard). You'll get a pop-up with "http://" highlighted. Right-click this and paste your image link. Make sure you don't have two "http://"s. Click "OK".

 

Db

[tomerok 10]

Price rallied up yesterday over every potential R

By the end of the day consolidated to a hinge which broke to the up side

Currently price is at last R before an air pocket

 

Areas of interest

2709

2700

3695

2687

2682

2679

2677

2674

2688

2657

 

 

Tomer

 

 

[tomerok 10]

As usual notes are on the chart, WHITE are RT notes, YELLOW are my post analysis notes

 

Tomer

 

 

Edited November 2, 2012 by tomerok
changed the picture to fix note number