Trading The Wyckoff Way

[DbPhoenix 42]

You will likely have another opportunity to dwell on this tomorrow. Given that price penetrated so far into the next TR, look for R at 58 and another trip to the midpoint of that range at 2590. It all depends on the buyers. Given the action today, price may just sit and catch its breath. Either way, be prepared.

 

Db

[BearBullTrading 10]

....

 

Finally, you must review your day. Some may think that if they didn't trade, there's nothing to review. If no thought came to you in 90m, then that may be true. But I find it hard to believe that that can be the case. You are all too smart for that. These reviews can be posted in this thread or in the CWS thread or in any other thread that seems appropriate to whatever it is that is challenging you. Doesn't matter. What matters is the process, and reviewing your day is a large part of the process......

Db

 

Whilst I didnt trade NQ today, I did have a few thoughts for review from a CWS perspective whilst following....Missed some things and saw some things.

 

Trading Range extremes at approx 2682 > 2657

Mid point at approx 2670

 

1...Missed seeing the the move originating from the mid point to support.

2...Saw a "hinge at support.

3...Saw the LH top on tick chart at mid point....CWS exit a long from 2 & CWS have looked for short for move back to S.

4...Saw previous S acting as R

5...CWS have looked for short on rejection of 4

[Gringo 10]

The grinding down continues. So far supply has continued to bully demand in this tug of war. Although the speed of the downward waves has slowed down the pressure is still downwards. How will we know when the pressure changes to upwards and demand start to assert itself? by observing price which will start moving up as a result.

 

There are quite a few charts today to show price behaviour at micro and macro levels. I have also included a monthly (gasp!) chart to show where the price high around 70 might have its origins.

 

Pre-market the NQ futures plunged and recovered but the price is still below yesterday's close. This could entice the traders to attempt to check selling pressure by trying to test the lower end. In case there isn't much supply we could head back up. After a sudden spike down if price starts firming up and resists the downward pressure the end of the downward price wave could be at hand. For now we know price is still weak and daily continuing lower. We stay bearish until some contrary behaviour indicates that it's time to change the stance.

 

Pay attention to the downward drifting mini-trend channel. It's visible more clearly on the 2 hr chart as compared to daily. A lot of information for today. I hope it's not too much to digest. If it's getting overwhelming just focus on the daily chart and that should be sufficient to keep things in perspective. The other charts are just additional information that's nice to have but our trading decisions are mainly based on the daily.

 

As the saying goes: The trend is your friend.

 

Stay with the trend.

 

Gringo

Edited October 26, 2012 by Gringo

[Niko 10]

My levels for today.

 

683

670 - 73 PDH

656

650

638 MP of last swing

637

624

607-04 PDL

590

583

572

562

543

526

509

 

[Bern 10]

Hi,

 

These are the prices-zones I will be watching today:

 

2678-2680 24/10 H and top of TR

2673,50 YH

2667-2668 mp TR

*2656-2658 Y pm high and top of Y pm TR

2650-2652 mp tr 25/10 and 24/10 pm tr and 23/10 L

2648-2649 mp tr 25/10 and OV (overnight) H

2646,25

2624-2625 OV SL DB

2604,50 OV L - Rejection on big VOL (prob AAPL earnings)

2594-2596 2/8 DB L

 

If there was significant overnight price action before the market opens, of course I would add the relevant prices-zones.

Edited October 26, 2012 by Bern

[tomerok 10]

Price took a dive yesterday, now price in front of major R from the past

2651 was major R, so we'll have to see what happens

 

Areas of interest

2673

2668 – minor

2657

2651 – R from the past

2646 – minor

2642

2623

2604

 

 

Tomer

[blocp 10]

here are my charts for today,

[Niko 10]

here are my charts for today,

Thanks, nice analysis. What is a RBS and a PB?

[blocp 10]

PB = pullback

RBS= resistance becomes support, i,m fed up of typing it in full

SBR= support becomes resistance,

[pjohnm 10]

26/10 Pre Mkt. Traders appears to be done with the previous 57/82 TR and a dip to 2605 was made overnight. This was shortlived and a base was formed at 2727, from here, price has risen back towards the bottom of the main TR (57). 47 also looks like a potential area of S/R.

So R at 57/70/82, S/R at 47 and S at 27.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Something to consider:

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

[Niko 10]

Here is my day´s recount. I hope that I will be able to contribute with more substantial observations during the following weeks. I don't see much just yet.

 

 

1. After failing to make a HH in premarket, sellers dumped their contracts in the market moving the price 4 points to the downside.

2. Buyers came in at S at 50, and managed to stop the fall, but not to the point of reaching the premarket H, and actually making a DT.

3. After the DT prices entered into a hinge that was broken at 9:32

4. After the BO there was a pullback to the midpoint of the hinge. Then sellers came in strong crossing through the 50 S without a problem.

5. Prices reached the premarket hinge that DB noted in the Chat and stopped at the midpoint near 46.

6. After compressing price broke out of the tiny congestion at 935.

7. Buyers took the price up without any signigicant attempt from sellers, but by 9:38 their angle of ascent started to falter.

8. Then around 9:41 there was a DT, followed by the first sign of strength on the part of the sellers.

9. The struggle turned into a hinge that was broken at 9:46 with a pullback that did not reach the MP of the hinge.

10. Prices rose to the MP of the TR that DB published in TIF http://cdn3.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachments/131/32412d1351257530-trading-foresight-wyckoff-forum-nq-100-hourly-20121026061735.png, I did not get it in my levels.

11. There it found R, from there sellers took prices down to 63 where they found some buyers, that was enough to pause the decline, but not halt it, sellers then manage to take prices down to 60 where they found S at the bottom of the hinge from 9:43.

12. Buyers managed to take prices to 64 again, but prices reversed rapidly on what looked like a H&S in the 1 min.

13. From there sellers took the price down without interference from the buyers until the 54 level was reached again. There buyers managed to stop the decline and define a DB and a hinge.

14. This hinge was broken abruptly with only a small pullback, and prices started advancing, but sellers were not giving up, and prices were constantly retracing

15. Price finally reached the 60 level where it found R and entered into congestion

16. After 10:12 buyers managed to exit congestion and kept going up until reaching 64 where they found enough supply to stop their advance. Although they gave a fight at 62 they lost control of the market, prices started falling again.

17. Prices fell to the MP of the TR at 15, stayed congested and formed a hinge, sellers managed to BO at 10:21 with a pullback at 10:23. From that pullback the SL was moved to the right.

18. Prices fell with small RETs until reaching the 50 area from the beginning of the morning.

19. There prices defined a TR that was broken at 10:45 with a pullback to the bottom of the TR.

20. Buyers tried to bring some S at 46, but were not strong enough, prices broke 46 to the downside.

21. R at 46 was tested again at 10:56

22. From there prices fell to 39 where buyers defined a DB, taking someone’s mangoes with them. (I guess mangoes where just waiting to be served at lunch. :haha:)

 

10 tick chart

 

 

30 tick chart

 

Edited October 26, 2012 by Niko
Added a new chart.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Can you expand your window vertically so that your price plot isn't so much of a line?

 

Thx

 

Db

[Niko 10]

Can you expand your window vertically so that your price plot isn't so much of a line?

 

Thx

 

Db

 

 

Db, I just added a new 30 tick chart in the post. Due to NT scaling restrictions, I can´t do much more with the 10 tick chart.

[Bern 10]

Db, I just added a new 30 tick chart in the post. Due to NT scaling restrictions, I can´t do much more with the 10 tick chart.

 

Niko: instead of saving one big-long chart window, adapt your chart window to something more pleasant to the eye, then save a chart, then scroll and save another one, etc as many charts as you need for the period you want to show us.

 

I imagine that you use the mouse -right click: image: save as- functionality of NT.

 

For example: see my attachements.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Db, I just added a new 30 tick chart in the post. Due to NT scaling restrictions, I can´t do much more with the 10 tick chart.

 

That's strange in this day and age. With SC I could expand and contract each window on both axes as much as I liked.

 

Oh well.

 

Db

[tomerok 10]

Hi

i marked my notes on the chart as the session progressed

again on the 144t since NT has scaling issues with 1t charts

 

 

Tomer

[DbPhoenix 42]

About these reviews. The reviews benefit each of you individually. Reliving the day cements what you learned, even if what you learned is still in the Tentative tray. Therefore, how you choose to display it, or whether or not you choose to display it at all, is entirely up to the individual.

 

However, if one is attempting to communicate something to somebody else, the display should meet that objective.

 

What I'm most concerned about is that each of you is learning to follow price. Whether you do it with a tick chart or a wave chart or a bar chart or whatever isn't important. What matters is that the review be an opportunity to enhance what's being learned, not that it be a chore.

 

Db

[tomerok 10]

Hi

I added some notes, regarding the trades I might have taken on this, post analysis to summarize the day….. and to compare with my RT notes.

I'll do that for the following month to practice

RT notes are in white, hindsight notes marked with yellow

 

Tomer.

[blocp 10]

nice analysis tomer, what is the green line that seems to be following price?

[Niko 10]

Niko: instead of saving one big-long chart window, adapt your chart window to something more pleasant to the eye, then save a chart, then scroll and save another one, etc as many charts as you need for the period you want to show us.

 

I imagine that you use the mouse -right click: image: save as- functionality of NT.

 

For example: see my attachements.

 

Bern,

 

Thanks for your advise. I actually did what you do and then edited the charts in paint, but it did not work as I expected it. I still think my analysis is way too long, but then I dont know yet what is and what is not important to notice, so until I develop sharper tapereader senses I will have to bear with myself.

 

I actually intended fot the chart to have continiuty so that everyone could see the flow in price uninterupted. Now, i think that the 30 tick chart does the work just well, I will post that from now on.

 

Regarding volume, as I cant find something useful to say yet, i will remove it from the chart. The only thing that intrigues me are the peaks in volume (120 contracts in 10 ticks and stuff like that), but so far no cause effect has been dectected.

[Niko 10]

About these reviews. The reviews benefit each of you individually. Reliving the day cements what you learned, even if what you learned is still in the Tentative tray. Therefore, how you choose to display it, or whether or not you choose to display it at all, is entirely up to the individual.

 

However, if one is attempting to communicate something to somebody else, the display should meet that objective.

 

What I'm most concerned about is that each of you is learning to follow price. Whether you do it with a tick chart or a wave chart or a bar chart or whatever isn't important. What matters is that the review be an opportunity to enhance what's being learned, not that it be a chore.

 

Db

 

Db,

 

Although i have only been doing this screen time for 2 days, i see how usefull it is, a week ago i was totally overwhelmed about the tick chart, too much info. But that is because i was only thinking in trades, and still had an oil price chart full of indicators. This week, following your advise i turned off all the other charts and stopped thinking in buy an sell, some things that were just noise before, started to make sense.

 

And as you said, the post market analisys reinforces the knowlegde aquired during the session.

 

Lets see where this takes me. Thanks again for everything.

 

Please forgive my spelling, again writing from an ipad.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Glad to hear it. And as for your analysis being "too long", it will be as long as you need it to be. As this becomes second nature, more and more will become internalized, and your notes will be far briefer. Eventually you may stop making them at all until you get into trouble, then you'll begin doing it again.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

I was asked today in chat how I saw what I saw. This is next to impossible to get into in chat, even with charts, which I never have time to post. And it doesn't do much good posting this stuff in the Forum since the background and context lend clarity.

 

So this is directed to those who were there today.

 

We all knew that 56-58 had provided both S and R for quite some time. As I posted earlier, elsewhere, this level went back to July. And the day started with 54-55 having been tested just before the open. So one could expect a short op at or just above that level.

 

However, price sailed right through all this without a stutter, so the chief task became finding the next potential R level. For that, I looked to the left for the first "trading zone". As I pointed out in chat (again), support and resistance are created not by geometry or mathematics but by trades. Look for levels where traders are trading like busy little bees. Look for levels or points where traders are turned back. Look for levels or points where traders keep trying to break through. Look for levels where traders sit and twiddle their thumbs. This is where you'll find support and resistance.

 

In this case, I saw that price had attempted to get through 64-65 twice the previous evening. It then did so, then glided back to that level and rested, satisfied with itself, so comfortable that it stayed there for hours. Even though that time of night may not be terribly busy, trades are trades, and the more time is spent at a given level, the more trades there are. The more trades there are, the more potential support or resistance.

 

As we were fast approaching this level, it made sense to look for any hesitation or lack of ability to find a trade. This occurred at 65, when price pulled back to 61. The drill, then, is to wait for a LH. If that doesn't occur, then perhaps price can make it all the way to 72. Instead, price made a marginal HH, though it was a strain (in RT). Thus when price plunged back below 65, there was a short op for a return trip back to 54, which is where we started.

 

There were other questions about how I found S and R, but I don't recall exactly what they were. If someone wants to jog my memory, I'll post more explanatory charts.

 

Db

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

[Niko 10]

 

 

There were other questions about how I found S and R, but I don't recall exactly what they were. If someone wants to jog my memory, I'll post more explanatory charts.

 

 

.

 

Db, i am re reading the s/r thread, so i think i will find this eventually.

 

You mentioned in the chat today, and previously on one of my posts that there were too many lines.

 

The thing is, if one selects only 5 lines, how does one detect the minor sr levels we ussually find in rt in thhe chat. Is that why you keep different bar intervals, so that you have the most relevant levels for each?

 

The second thing is that as we are reaching new lows in the nq, we need to go all the way to july to find relevant TRs. After these zones are being populated by new trades, should we move the S/R levels, giving more importance to the most recent areas, I guess the answer is yes, but anyway the worst question is the one that is not made.

 

Have a nice WE.