Trading The Wyckoff Way

[Gringo 10]

Tupapa,

 

Yes and no. Just because there's potential support or demand line there doesn't mean I am going to SAR. Support has to prove itself by doing something to price, otherwise it's just a line drawn on a chart. And remember, demand lines don't provide support, they only show the shift in supply and demand.

 

If demand does show up then yes, first I'll exit and then see if it is worth taking a long as the trend is still down and we've none of the following: SL break, LSL break, LSH break, HL, HH or anything to show there's conviction in demand.

 

Just because we're at a line drawn by me doesn't make it a support. Most traders probably consider this a time to take profits and at times market will prove them right and give them more money to keep because they exited, but I on the other hand wait for some signal to even force me to exit. Remember I am not playing for a few points here and there. I am trying to catch a trend. Here close to potential support there is a higher probability of price rebounding upwards but I can't just anticipate the rebound and run for cover. I wait until the first bullet is fired by demand before I start ducking. Long entry will be assessed after the short is covered.

 

This may be a bit different from most technical analysis schools out there (or maybe not) but my understanding is that without some evidence to the contrary I stay in my position. It may be a misinterpretation on my part of what Wyckoff meant, but I think not. I am willing to expect a worse price for exit and reduction in profits for the probabilistic event that price continues with the trend.

 

Keep in mind I am only trying to talk about the interplay of supply and demand in my posts and give multiple entry and exit options as I don't know the risk profiles and preferences to stomach price gyrations of other people. It's to show there are multiple ways to skinning a cat, but it's still the same cat. Focus on the cat (price) rather than the skinning part of it to ensure once you have skinned it, you don't end up instead with a skinned goat.

 

Gringo

Edited October 24, 2012 by Gringo

[DbPhoenix 42]

Db I know I need to do my back testing but all the numbered notes relating to the arrows are my RT notes that I am making in real time, the notes in red are how I analyse what has happened after the fact, I want to avoid as much curve fitting as possible, what is the point in cheating yourself by believing you can make it trading.

 

also do you or anyone else think that the setups are set in stone using this wyckoff method and once we have all tested our setups they will all match and we will be trading the same way, or could we all end up with different setups that we could all profit from?

 

I am assuming that everyone will have different risk parameters, and will be able to hold trades longer, or might even be happy with less profit.

 

My comments were addressed to Niko in particular and beginners in general, not to you specifically. However, the fact remains that without even a tentative trading plan based on the results of testing hypotheses and electing instead to develop a tentative trading plan via RT trading, you are in effect working your way through an unfamiliar cave with a narrow-beam flashlight. With a trading plan, even one that is not yet thoroughly tested, you at least have a map.

 

As for the setups being set in stone, no. The principles, yes. The best entries are made off support or resistance. Entries made within a range or long after a trend has reversed are much more problematic. If one wants to take them anyway, no one can stop him. But, yes, that's outside the boundaries of this particular approach.

 

The fact that you're going through the process of observation and study is a giant plus in your column. By doing so you will be able to breeze through your backtesting and forwardtesting when you decide to enter that phase.

 

However, it is next to impossible to avoid looking back, if even for only a few minutes, and thinking about whether or not one might have entered at a particular spot or level if one were trading, either sim or for real. This is the hazard of hindsight trading, or formulating a plan -- even if one is unaware of doing so -- based on "if only".

 

I should also reiterate perhaps that there are only three setups: reversals, retracements and breakouts.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

Note: I've merged some posts from an old, closed thread into the beginning of the Rev, Ret, and BO thread. You'll find them at the beginning. Even though the charts won't open, you may be able to glean enough from the prose to understand the points that are being made.

 

Db

[pjohnm 10]

I was referring to post 113.

[Niko 10]

Hi Niko

No i haven't, attached is my october trading log, i left it as is so you can see the excel formulas in action.

 

Tomer

 

Very interesting, a lot of excel coding work.

 

I will give it a deep look.

 

As a comment, I would like to say that in my indicators trading I use some columns to define some what ifs, mainly I record, best price during trade, best price after trade, worst price during trade and worst price after trade.

 

With those after each 100 trades I analyse if there is any thing I can tweak to improve trading results. Like move my TP some ticks, move my trailing stop using a different MA, changing the stochastic,you name it...

 

Now, as I said in other post, my interest is to learn W methods, so I can stop relying in indicators setups that might not work in the future. I just wanted to share some variables I analyze, that I think can be of use in other Trading Logs.

[tomerok 10]

Very interesting, a lot of excel coding work.

 

enjoy, if you have any questions ask away..

 

 

Tomer

[DbPhoenix 42]

I was in chat for only the beginning of the session, long enough to point out the potential reversal off R. This occurred within a point of R. Price then found S in the same place it found it over the past several days. What happened inbetween is pretty straightforward. Price dropped to the midpoint of this range, waffled around while it waited for whatever report it was, then plunged to a TR between 63 and 67. This shifted to a slightly lower TR between 61 and 66 (+/-).

 

There was never any reason to abandon price before it reached S. Once again, S&R rule.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading is so complicated.

 

Db

[eminiman414 10]

Is it really necessary to watch a 5s chart along with a 1 min. chart? I understand the concept of waves within waves etc.

 

Now at this moment I don't necessarily see every wave a 5s chart would make in the 1 min chart, but is knowing they are there enough? I find my eyes jumping back and forth from chart to chart and then end up having to find my place again so to speak. Kind of like reading two similar yet different books at the same time and then going ok now where was I on this book, etc.

 

Do I just watch one chart then look at the other for reference? Lets say price is testing a swing high, I can see the area that is being tested on a 1 min chart, but on the 5s chart that area is nowhere in sight without scroll back through the chart losing price's current position, or by zooming out so far that the information gets "muddy."

 

Then do I add volume to both charts or just one?

 

Should I lose the 5s chart for now? I've looked at some of blocp's charts and how he analyzes the one min time frame and it makes sense. I feel I can score a 90 or better on a written trading test, but if someone said ok go trade, i would not do well on that portion of the test.

 

I've looked into cvbs, and I definitely like the way they look, but theres just something about having volume built in and feeling like I am missing a piece to the puzzle and then the ideas of just doing it the way our forefathers did it that stop me from using them.

 

I have taught myself all on my own how to draw (except college), how to play the guitar, how to breakdance etc, but this is definitely the most challenging and will in the future be the most rewarding. Just trying to set my "environment" up the best way possible to learn the most I can. Like setting my TV and DVD player up optimally to have the clearest picture of the movie without squinting and getting confused as to what I am watching because my TV sucks.

 

I am completely raw and green in this subject area, and feel I have already learned a good amount. Read through wyckoff's material going through section 7 bar by bar as he outlnes. I've now printed it and will begin to go through it again a second time. Any help you guys can provide would be much appreciated.

[Gringo 10]

Eminiman414,

 

I would suggest you stick with the 1 min to learn and after a few months you can start looking at smaller intervals. You'll know when you are ready for smaller intervals when you start craving what's happening within those 1 min bars to make even better decisions.

 

I only use 1 min and generally speaking can figure out the main theme of the day. Since you're getting used to how price moves the entry and exits are not that much of your focus as to get the direction straight in your head. Smaller intervals simply give you a faster and earlier signal regarding possible entries and exits but even 1 min is sufficient for learning purposes. I would even go as far and say a person can probably trade with a 1 min chart if he's aware of the limitations and is ok with some missed opportunities.

 

If you can, leave the 5 second window open without paying much attention to it. You might slowly get accustomed to using it only at important junctures. You'll know what those junctures are once you get used to price behaviour itself.

 

Gringo

[blocp 10]

emini I have been trying to work out a way to trade this method for the past 3 years and have spent most of those 3 years staring at price charts on and off calling trades out to myself with out any planning and thinking yeah I can do this then telling my wife how much cash we will have one day.

I have about 5-6 note books full of different periods over the last 3 years where i've been focused for a few months, I would then fund a trading account, lose two or three trades then blow up, revenge trade lose more money and give up for a few months pretending to myself that i'm still doing it and learning by turning the charts on each morning.

I will say one thing i did right was that I was lucky that I found Db quite soon into my journey and knew that if i was ever to succeed this is the way to trade so I haven't gone through the indicator phase really, maybe for a month in the beginning.

But I have still changed trading vehicle several times like the FTSE, forex, the eurostocks, I then decided that to understand this properly the NQ would be the best choice as thats what is mainly traded on this forum, I also like it as the contract size is relatively small to start with.

I have also veered off to VSA paid for a software add-on and paid for gary dayton chart reading master class thinking that having someone explain it vocally might help, but what I saw was basically what I've seen before on this forum, not a total waste of money but money I could have saved.

I have only started doing this type of analysis properly and journaling it over the last 2 months, I suppose I thought by paying for the VSA indicator add-ons or garys course that I still wouldn't need to put in the really hard work.

Well I have learnt more in the last 2 months since doing the studying and journaling everything I do, plus I have also wrote a trading plan out for the first time with some meaning and structure, there is loads to add to it but it's a start. I looked back over the trading plan for the first time this week and it felt great, a slight feeling of euphoria that things were coming together.

I have also had so many aha moments in the last 2 months loads more than in the last 3 years.

i'm enjoying being part of the forum, why was I a lurker for so long. if only I had got off my lazy backside earlier.

 

right to the point and reason I started this post: I started looking at the 1 tick right at the beginning of my journey but couldn't read it at all, I then read Db's post again once he posted it in the 90 mins thread the one where he mentions taking the red pill, well I thought I'll have another go, what I did was scale the chart down so you can see all the waves about 15-20 mins in time like 09:30-09:50 this is if price is in a range. I watched this until I started to see waves ranges all the things mentioned in the forum clearly, I paid no attention to the 1 minute chart for the first 3 week in RT it was there next to the tick but I didn't look at it RT, now my brain is tuned to the 1 tick i can look at other TF at the same time, don't try to rush this I haven't 3 years and counting

 

I have just re-read your post I don't know about not using charts that might make your trading easier like the cvb charts just because wyckoff didn't use them as we don't know what modern technology he would use, they after all contain price and volume which is what wyckoffs method is all about. they are as Db first pointed out excellent for getting rid of the low volume overnight trading, and for building ranges.

 

i'm sorry for the long post, I needed a chance to get that of my chest, I hope it helps people stick with it

Edited October 24, 2012 by blocp
bad grammer again,....and added portion..

[Patuca 13]

If nothing else, they force the trader to look to the left, like he's supposed to, and see where support and resistance actually lie. And why.

lie??? i thought they told the truth per the wyckoffonians:haha:

[Niko 10]

I am currently facing a problem. I am in the middle of the chicken and the egg paradox. I am formulating hypothesis, as a result of the discussions we´ve been having here in the forum and in the chatroom. I was even going to start today testing a year of hinges BOs, but then I realized something was missing.

 

I went to the beginning of the Journal Thread, but I could not find it, so I look everywhere, and I think I found it in the trading in 90 min.

 

 

Hire yourself to do a job

 

The job is just to sit there and watch the bars form, to watch the buying and selling waves, the pokes and prods and feelers cast by buyers and sellers looking for a trade, not to create or test a strategy, not to make money, not to learn the "secrets" or the "tricks", just to develop a sensitivity to buying and selling pressure. No indicators, no MAs, no nothing but price bars/points and volume bars.

 

 

Make notes of what you see and what you think you see

 

Don't rush to draw conclusions. Throw away your crutches and focus on what the auction market is really all about. The market is not out to get you. The market is not out to trick you. Buying pressure is buying pressure. It lasts as long as it lasts according to who wants what. Ditto for selling pressure. Rather than focusing on avoiding getting screwed, focus on the pressures and the imbalances between them. Don't trade. Don't conclude. Just watch.

 

When you get tired, stop. Come back. Begin again. When you're done, review your notes. Look for those areas in which change took place. Formulate some hypotheses as to why those changes took place in those areas and not others. Don't force the Ah-Ha. Just let it come.

 

Begin with what appears to apply to whatever market you're trading. If it's in a trend, focus on retracements and continuations (a continuation being the logical result of a successful retracement). If it's in a trading range, focus on reversals. And so on. Develop the strategy thoroughly, with all the accompanying tactics. Test it. Learn it. Get comfortable with it.

 

 

Now, I understand that following the scientific method, one must first Observe in order to formulate the first hypothesis. By defining a pattern for entries, I was forcing my mind again (have been handicapped from my systematic trading experience :crap:)) to look for the patterns I wanted to see instead of the patterns that are there.

 

Then I realized that I had to do exactly what Db said, I had to familiarize myself with the ebb and flow of the market and try to identify buying and selling pressure. Here is where I would need some group support, because after staring for 1 hour (I know I need much more time), I came to the realization that I did not know WTF (Not the Setup) was I looking for. Maybe is that I am way too moronic for this or maybe I am missing something, that is why I wanted to ask the more experienced W traders if they have any suggestions about the issue of screen time.

 

Am I supposed to start identifying patterns in the movement of price after I do this for weeks, am I supposed to look at a tick chart. I don't know, any help here would be appreciated.

[eminiman414 10]

Now, I understand that following the scientific method, one must first Observe in order to formulate the first hypothesis. By defining a pattern for entries, I was forcing my mind again (have been handicapped from my systematic trading experience :crap:)) to look for the patterns I wanted to see instead of the patterns that are there.

 

Then I realized that I had to do exactly what Db said, I had to familiarize myself with the ebb and flow of the market and try to identify buying and selling pressure. Here is where I would need some group support, because after staring for 1 hour (I know I need much more time), I came to the realization that I did not know WTF (Not the Setup) was I looking for. Maybe is that I am way too moronic for this or maybe I am missing something, that is why I wanted to ask the more experienced W traders if they have any suggestions about the issue of screen time.

 

Am I supposed to start identifying patterns in the movement of price after I do this for weeks, am I supposed to look at a tick chart. I don't know, any help here would be appreciated.

 

I find myself in a similar situation. I watch but what am I looking for. I see price go up (buying pressure), I see price go down (selling pressure), I see price move in a tight range, and the volumes on all of the above fluctuating etc. Like if someone said replay the day and look for xyz and then boom there is xyz I feel would be helpful, but I guess that's why people trade flags, triangles, and use indicators etc.

 

Like here's what you need to do to be a better free throw shooter, shoot 1000 free throws a day, but make sure your technique (what you're looking for in your chart) is correct. Now, everyone's technique is a little different that fits there personal style but the overall principles are very similar. The hoop or where you shoot then (your chart/timeframe etc) won't matter because you've practiced your technique (what to look for) enough times. No idea if that makes sense, or if it's off topic, but it makes sense to me.

Edited October 24, 2012 by eminiman414

[ForexTraderX 10]

I am currently facing a problem. I am in the middle of the chicken and the egg paradox. I am formulating hypothesis, as a result of the discussions we´ve been having here in the forum and in the chatroom. I was even going to start today testing a year of hinges BOs, but then I realized something was missing.

 

I went to the beginning of the Journal Thread, but I could not find it, so I look everywhere, and I think I found it in the trading in 90 min.

 

 

 

Now, I understand that following the scientific method, one must first Observe in order to formulate the first hypothesis. By defining a pattern for entries, I was forcing my mind again (have been handicapped from my systematic trading experience :crap:)) to look for the patterns I wanted to see instead of the patterns that are there.

 

Then I realized that I had to do exactly what Db said, I had to familiarize myself with the ebb and flow of the market and try to identify buying and selling pressure. Here is where I would need some group support, because after staring for 1 hour (I know I need much more time), I came to the realization that I did not know WTF (Not the Setup) was I looking for. Maybe is that I am way too moronic for this or maybe I am missing something, that is why I wanted to ask the more experienced W traders if they have any suggestions about the issue of screen time.

 

Am I supposed to start identifying patterns in the movement of price after I do this for weeks, am I supposed to look at a tick chart. I don't know, any help here would be appreciated.

 

Ya know, I'm not DB, nor do I adhere to his particular trading methodology (though I'm familiar with wyckoff, and know that his concepts are a viable, profitable paradigm from which to see the market through...) But I wanted to jump in here because I think I have a suggestion that may help you... REALLY help you, to acheive what your trying to do (which is the ability to recognize viable opportunities in the market that you can profit from)

 

There are two parts to this "trading drill"

 

Part 1: "What comes next?"

For "what comes next?", all you need is a daily chart that allows you to scroll one candle forward at a time. (any TF is ok, but daily is best to start with). You will also want at least 1-2 years of historical data if using a daily chart.

 

Start by putting about 120 daily candles on your screen (about 5 months worth)

 

Then, look at the price action as it appears on your screen... and make a guess as to what candle comes next? It is easiest to narrow down your options to 3 possible choices.

 

1. Bull candle

2. Bear Candle

3. Pass (too difficult to determine which is more likely, bullish or bearish. Or just don't know, etc)

 

So, once you have your guess, WRITE IT DOWN. Then, move your screen forward by only 1 candle. Were you correct in your guess? Great! Put a star next to the guess you wrote down to let yourself know that you took a guess, and it was correct.

 

Now, if your guess was incorrect, circle it so you know that you took a guess, and got it wrong.

 

If you choose "pass" then just move on to the next candle, and try to guess again.

 

The object of this game is to develop your eye for price action, so that you will be able to accurately guess if the next candle is bullish, or bearish, well more than 50% of the time. I personally can do get about 70%+ when I play this game using daily candles, but of course I also "pass" many times, and only guess when I am very confident that I know what comes next.

 

The NEXT game is "pick a level, any level"

 

The way to play "pick a level, any level" is to look at a chart (probably a 1 hr or smaller TF is best for this drill)... and then draw in a S/R level that you see. (horizontal lines only for now.)

 

THEN... write down what you think price will do when it gets to that line. Will it instantly reverse? Will it stall for 6 candles, and then reverse? Will it stall for a little bit, then either fall fast, or slowly push through that line?

 

Then... watch price as it approaches this line. If it does anything to make you think it will react different than you first thought... well, go ahead and add a new note saying this... and also say why you now changed your mind.

 

Try to do this at least twice a day, for several weeks. Believe it or not, within 2-6 weeks, you will find that you can "predict" with greater accuracy every week what price will do when it hits your horizontal line that you drew.

 

Try to do both of these drills each day. WIthin 2 -6 weeks, you will start to see exactly what you will need to in order to become a skilled price action trader.

 

Hope this helps!

 

FTX

[DbPhoenix 42]

Actually, none of this is about bull or bear candles, guessing, or predicting. It's about observing the behavior of price. While the kinds of exercises you suggest might be useful with some other approach, in this approach they would be several steps backward.

 

I suggest that those who have followed along chime in and offer their opinions, suggestions, insights. I'm reluctant to jump in like the gurus do and offer quick and easy solutions to problems that are anything but quick and easy. But if you guys can't work it out, I'll offer my two cents.

 

Remember that this is a process, and there's no hurry.

 

Keep it simple.

 

Db

[ForexTraderX 10]

Actually, none of this is about bull or bear candles, guessing, or predicting. It's about observing the behavior of price. While the kinds of exercises you suggest might be useful with some other approach, in this approach they would be several steps backward.

 

Keep it simple.

 

Db

 

Well, predicting isn't the correct word really (I don't have a "correct" word actually)... and I know Wykoff is more price fluidity than price compartmentalization and these drills do not adhere to the spirit of his approach, but I do think that if someone is feeling completely overwhelmed with what to look for that such "specific, quantifiable" activities such as this does help develop an elementary sense of market flow. I do see what your saying though DB regarding it possibly being counterproductive for a more qualitative approach as Wyckoff's....

 

so that leads me to the point that the poster I addressed was at... Other than just simply sitting and watching price to develop a feel for it over a period of time... is there any task or "homework assignment" that one could do to feel as though there is a specific focus for their time...

 

I know immersion is the best way to learn a language, and this in many ways, is like a language...however, there are also "tutorials" and such that can facilitate learning the language other than immersion... but is there such a thing that would adhere to the wyckoff methodology?

[ForexTraderX 10]

Actually, none of this is about bull or bear candles, guessing, or predicting. It's about observing the behavior of price. While the kinds of exercises you suggest might be useful with some other approach, in this approach they would be several steps backward.

 

I suggest that those who have followed along chime in and offer their opinions, suggestions, insights. I'm reluctant to jump in like the gurus do and offer quick and easy solutions to problems that are anything but quick and easy. But if you guys can't work it out, I'll offer my two cents.

 

Remember that this is a process, and there's no hurry.

 

Keep it simple.

 

Db

 

Well, actually your mention of "quick and easy" is about right... drill or no drill, wyckoff or no wyckoff, learning to correctly interpret what the market is telling you is like learning an abstract, visually based foreign language.

 

If I understand DB correctly, his point I think is best exemplified in the following parable:

 

The Jade Master - somerandom.com

 

Learning to read the market, is, pretty much exactly like this parable.

[blocp 10]

hi john

 

I think you mean anticipated a HL after the 14:20 swing high, is this correct?

 

I would say that volume declined on the first PB, I think the declining volume on the way up could be in context with the opening minute being more volatile but I may be wrong

 

I wouldn't say that volume decreases on the way up to 02, but there is increased volume to the down side on the first RET and decreased volume on the REV as you pointed out so a short trade possibly depending on major SAR, could you please explain a compression bar to me please?

 

I haven't paid any attention to angle of decents but would be interested to hear your thoughts,

 

I would have taken the small hinge BO and once this failed wouldn't have traded till the BO RET of the bigger hinge,

 

I don't know if this is what you wanted me to do but thanks for giving your take on the chart

 

bloc

[pjohnm 10]

I am currently facing a problem. I am in the middle of the chicken and the egg paradox. I am formulating hypothesis, as a result of the discussions we´ve been having here in the forum and in the chatroom. I was even going to start today testing a year of hinges BOs, but then I realized something was missing.

 

I went to the beginning of the Journal Thread, but I could not find it, so I look everywhere, and I think I found it in the trading in 90 min.

 

 

 

Now, I understand that following the scientific method, one must first Observe in order to formulate the first hypothesis. By defining a pattern for entries, I was forcing my mind again (have been handicapped from my systematic trading experience :crap:)) to look for the patterns I wanted to see instead of the patterns that are there.

 

Then I realized that I had to do exactly what Db said, I had to familiarize myself with the ebb and flow of the market and try to identify buying and selling pressure. Here is where I would need some group support, because after staring for 1 hour (I know I need much more time), I came to the realization that I did not know WTF (Not the Setup) was I looking for. Maybe is that I am way too moronic for this or maybe I am missing something, that is why I wanted to ask the more experienced W traders if they have any suggestions about the issue of screen time.

 

Am I supposed to start identifying patterns in the movement of price after I do this for weeks, am I supposed to look at a tick chart. I don't know, any help here would be appreciated.

 

Hi Nik

Your post resonates with me and I unfortunately cant offer much help, as I feel a long way from a meaningful trading plan. I would say that watching price in RT has led to some re-occuring themes appearing to me, even in the space of 2 wks, but what I do think is important is to put the market into context before the open. This sounds simple but I have not achieved it. For example, are we in a trading range or trend or both? Which levels matter to me and why? I find having lots of S/R clouds my thinking, so the question is then, which S/R is more important? I think focusing on the extremes of ranges will help me as it potentially allows more scope for staying in a trade longer (or getting out quicker), and therefore catching bigger moves. I'm looking at the extremes of longer term TR's (4/5/6 hr charts) and then the action as it approaches S/R. From here, the questions stack up, and I know that the only thing that matters is what price is doing now, rather than the lines I have drawn, so what action that I have seen previously would I want to see again as we approach a level I have deemed important? (A db/dt, a lh/hl, a break of sl/dl, activity increasing/decreasing, compressed bars on upwave v wide range bars on downwave, confluence with some long term trend line, a major index also at S/R, some combination of the above?)

 

For now, I continue to watch (and think out loud in the chatroom) in the hope that some of the themes I have seen will become fortified, but the focus is on keeping it simple to begin with (no volume or tickq, but the s&p to help with context). Maybe this is just another road that may or may not get to the hub of being able to understand what price is doing just by watching it on a chart, but the only thing that matters is whether it leads to a profitable plan.

[blocp 10]

I had replied to eminiman in the the ask any question thread, ok there was a lot of bollocks before I got to the point but it was there at the end.

 

First go over my 1 tick charts I have posted look at the descriptions that are related to the arrows, most of what I write is the first thing that comes into my head while price is moving in RT and it changes every day, but it is something solid to refer back to even if it is rubbish. (how will I improve if I have nothing noted down to improve from), I can build on this as time moves on which is what I've been doing, draw the minor SAR lines in RT and see how price moves between them.

 

I keep the scale down to what you see on the charts just so I can see the price movement, I don't care if I see every tick singled out on it's own, (this was how I started viewing it a few years ago the scale was set just so I just had 2 or 3 lines of ticks running across my screen, I couldn't see anything it would come to a support line and before I could see it react with SAR, whoosh it's gone, which is probably why I threw in the towel and probably looked else where for a so called easy way out of hard work, i.e. VSA, as I thought I couldn't do what I believe to be the truth and cleanest way to trade.

 

what you are looking for is what your eyes will let you see, I found that my eyes will let me see everything that I know about trading and have read over the past 3 years that has any value to this way of trading, this was my big aha aha aha moment.

 

I wouldn't even think about volume, especially on the smaller TF below 1 minute, I only have it on the chart as I like the way it keeps the price area higher on my screen.

 

don't even think about trading, entries, exits or stops, if you can't read the price how are you going to know when to trade.

 

think about waves, buyers, sellers, pressure, testing all these thing are important first. just let your mind go relax and enjoy the ride, give it 90 minutes a day if you can last that long, it might be a good idea to forget chat while starting this as you will need to focus.

 

good luck

 

bloc

Edited October 24, 2012 by blocp
added words...

[pjohnm 10]

hi john

 

I think you mean anticipated a HL after the 14:20 swing high, is this correct?

 

I would say that volume declined on the first PB, I think the declining volume on the way up could be in context with the opening minute being more volatile but I may be wrong

 

I wouldn't say that volume decreases on the way up to 02, but there is increased volume to the down side on the first RET and decreased volume on the REV as you pointed out so a short trade possibly depending on major SAR, could you please explain a compression bar to me please?

 

I haven't paid any attention to angle of decents but would be interested to hear your thoughts,

 

I would have taken the small hinge BO and once this failed wouldn't have traded till the BO RET of the bigger hinge,

 

I don't know if this is what you wanted me to do but thanks for giving your take on the chart

 

bloc

 

Hi bloc

You're correct, that should read HL at 14:20.

 

I look at volume in 2 ways. One, as a wave in conjunction with the price wave, mainly from one swing point to the other, so from the opening low to the first swing high, then from the retracement (first HL) to the next swing high and so on. I see your point about volume kicking in after the first retrace, but it declines soonafter. One other point to make is that buyers had to fight harder at the 2nd retrace and that to me is the purpose of this i.e, to spot changes in the dynamics and not be surprised that the DL breaks soonafter.

 

I also look at single/ double bars to see if this offers any clues i.e, what is happening to the price bar at the volume spike bar, if price is continously making HH's on volume spikes, then I would see it as strength, ditto, weakness on LL's.

 

As for the angle of the waves, I've yet to determine whether this is worth paying attention to but you can see after the 2nd hinge that the intitial downwave angle starts off much steeper than previous downwaves, and it leads to buyers giving up most of the gains made from the open.

[eminiman414 10]

First attempt at hindsight analysis. Hope the quality of the chart is clear enough. Also I can't get my 1 tic chart to display more than 3 minutes worth of price action. Don't know how i can shrink it any further if even possible. A 5 second chart gives me about 30 or so minutes of price action and a 2 second chart about 15 minutes. I use ninjatrader. Anyone have a trick to get the tic chart to fit? If not what would be the next closest resemblance to a 1 tick? 1 range bar set at a 1 tick interval, or would a 2 or 5 second chart be better?

 

Here is my chart for critique. I thank everyone for all of there help and generous sharing or stories and information.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Though a few more people may contribute to this group therapy session, the day is getting on, and I want to point out first that what you are all going through is expected, and none of you should feel particularly stupid for being where you are. Second, you are your own ticket out. There are no secrets. There are no established protocols. Most of all, there are no shortcuts; those who try to take them in the belief that they are saving time will only prolong the process.

 

Unlearning what you know that isn't true takes time. The more you know that isn't true, the more time it will take. Letting go of all that is very difficult because you have so much time invested in it (and perhaps money as well). But until you let it go, you will be holding yourself back. This is not to say that everything you "know" is useless; knowing what you disagree with and knowing what you have found to be crap puts you way ahead of those who just can't let any of it go.

 

Beyond that, everything you need to know is here. Some of it may seem obvious. Some of it may seem ludicrous. Some of it may have seemed ludicrous a month ago but is now quite illuminating. Some of it won't make any sense for another month. Or two. But it's all here.

 

I know that some of you, when observing price movement, are still thinking about where you could have entered in order to profit from what you're observing. Or, if you're actually trading, sim or real, you're thinking about where you could have entered. Or should have entered. As long as you're hung up on this particular pitard, you aren't going to be going anywhere. You cannot focus on price movement while you're thinking about trading, and what you did, and what you might do, and what you're going to do, and why were you so stupid to do what you did, and what has price been doing while you've been so wrapped up in yourself? Bloc's posts provide excellent examples of how to avoid this. But then bloc has paid his dues and has decided to stop shoving his arm into the thrasher.

 

If you're going to succeed at this, you must commit. At a minimum that means posting your charts to the Trading in Foresight thread early enough so that you can see what others are thinking and so that you can share what you're thinking with others, no later than 0900 EST. If you're having trouble interpreting price in real time, then it makes sense to observe price in real time, preferably in chat, so that you can ask questions. If you're there by 0915, then anything that has occurred since 0900 can be discussed. Logging in at 0928 won't do it.

 

Finally, you must review your day. Some may think that if they didn't trade, there's nothing to review. If no thought came to you in 90m, then that may be true. But I find it hard to believe that that can be the case. You are all too smart for that. These reviews can be posted in this thread or in the CWS thread or in any other thread that seems appropriate to whatever it is that is challenging you. Doesn't matter. What matters is the process, and reviewing your day is a large part of the process.

 

In the meantime, if it all seems a hopeless tangle, I have two words for you: support, resistance. If you still don't know how to locate S&R, read the S&R thread and the Trading Ranges thread. If you've read them, read them again. Then practice for a few days and read them again. At some point, there will be posts that stand out, that carry some insight that opens a window for you. Copy those out and save them. There've been quite a few people through here before you, many of them very bright and very perceptive. Learn from them. That's what all these posts are for (well, not all of them; most of them are throwaway, but there's a lot of gold amongst the glitter).

 

Go. Put your charts together. Post them. Learn from each other. Whether I'm around or not should have nothing to do with your progress, or lack of it. Whatever I've been saying lately is just a reiteration of stuff I've said before. Read. Study. Practice. This is not complicated. Don't make it so.

 

Db

[tupapa 10]

Morning everyone, here are my Bund levels for today, didn't get a chance to post them last night.

 

There has just been a very nice rejection of 140.12, which I missed becuase the trains were late and I wasn't at my desk from the open...

 

Lets see how the day evolves. As things stand, I am looking for a long if price retests 140.12, a Long on a test of 23, and a short on a rejection of 140.40.

[tupapa 10]

Here are my NQ levels for today, initially, I see no reason to trade until price tests either the 2652-2647 Suppport area, or the 2679 Resistance area.

 

I case price broke below 2647, I have added the relevant levels from the 5h chart, this is well known territory, however, its been a while since traders visited the 2520-2650 range, would you guys still give the same importance to the levels or would you rely on finding S/R on the way?