Trading The Wyckoff Way

[Gringo 10]

Isn't price behaving too predictably today? I feel as if it's a piece of cake.

 

1) Drop from R, SL break

2) Strength upwards DL break.

3) Hinge -> BO -> RET -> DL -> DL break.

4) Back under R...and continuing.

 

 

Price is moving a bit slower today compared to the past few days. Perhaps that's why it's easier or we're just getting used to seeing this kind of price behaviour now?

 

Gringo

[tomerok 10]

yes

and slow moving

 

Tomer

[Gringo 10]

Today seemed like one of the easier days. The speed of the price movement was deliberate and not violent. The last drop was a bit faster but even that played out predictably.

 

Unfortunately, I wasn't able to identify the last test around 2840 in RT (circled in red). Perhaps I unconsciously took S/R as fixed at around 2839 instead of where traders determine it ought to be, leading to a lapse in judgement. After price dropped below 2839 and my drawn S/R my mind started to wonder what was that I had missed in identifying the weakness earlier.

 

 

 

It is the delicate balance of demand and supply around S/R zones that is key to this mystery that is price. I am enjoying this rule based observation as the question no longer is whether price did something unexpected, but whether I was able to recognize my pre-planned and pre-determined price behaviour in real time.

 

There are no worries about news, or whether it is good or bad. All I know and need to know is my set-up and whether it's present in the price behaviour or not. What a relief it is to not have my whole life consumed with indicators, economic policies, shortages, government interventions and so many other valid but unnecessary inputs. Just me and the price with a few supply and demand lines, support and resistance lines and the set-up.

 

Yes, there is work involved but it is to master the material, not to always be at one's wit's end trying to outsmart the smartest. What a relief it is to not be at the mercy of the trading gods. What a pleasure in being one's own master. What freedom in being free.

 

Gringo

[DbPhoenix 42]

Unfortunately, I wasn't able to identify the last test around 2840 in RT (circled in red). Perhaps I unconsciously took S/R as fixed at around 2839 instead of where traders determine it ought to be, leading to a lapse in judgement. After price dropped below 2839 and my drawn S/R my mind started to wonder what was that I had missed in identifying the weakness earlier.

 

I haven't brought it up yet, but some of you may be interested in playing with the TICKQ. It doesn't always diverge at what have been hypothesized as critical S/R levels, but it does often enough to be useful. If the test were to come after the DL break, the choices wouldn't be so fuzzy. But things aren't always so clear.

 

Db

 

 

 

Edited October 5, 2012 by DbPhoenix

[eminiman414 10]

I would like to introduce myself, but I feel I may go off on a little tangent and do not want to take away from the thread obviously. So basically I am asking if this is ok because this is where I'd like to spend my time on this site?

 

P.S. I took that short trade this morning. My first trade with no indicators and colored bars etc. So I will post what I saw for anaylzing when I get home from work.

 

Thanks guys.

[tomerok 10]

Today I had a weird day.

 

Even though it was a losing day, I ended up with a good feeling, a feeling of pride and accomplishment, pride with the loses, and pride with the fact that I managed to execute all of the trades according to my plan !.

 

After reviewing my day I stand behind every trade and every lose, since I executed all of them according to my plan.

 

If I had to redo a trade I would have taken it the same way I did in RT

I managed to adapt to changes in price and move on, not letting my previous trade affecting my judgment.

 

Tomer.

[tomerok 10]

I would like to introduce myself, but I feel I may go off on a little tangent and do not want to take away from the thread obviously. So basically I am asking if this is ok because this is where I'd like to spend my time on this site?

 

P.S. I took that short trade this morning. My first trade with no indicators and colored bars etc. So I will post what I saw for anaylzing when I get home from work.

 

Thanks guys.

 

Hi eminiman

welcome aboard.

 

Tomer.

[eminiman414 10]

Let me start by saying I saw the post by db about the steps the trader goes through and I've definitely gone through that in my short time trading. I have only been reading about day trading since May and opened my account in August so I am an extreme newborn. I'll try to keep it short but I told my girlfriend a few weeks ago after I had a few losses that I am putting in a lot of time and effort in trying to "figure it all out" but I felt although I was studying I was not studying the "right" things. I was first trading the TF using LBR's setups (the first cross, and grail trades). Back testing it looked promising, but when live it was difficult for me to say well is price pulled back far enough to enter, is the macd pulled back etc etc. I was trading off of indicators and not so much the price and just never felt comfortable trading, every entry my heart was pounding lol. My dad invests and does well with it aside from his regular job of owning a business, so I sort of feel like this is in my blood and is definitely what I want to do for a living (i know many say that). Every weekend I say I can not wait until Monday and this is after about 7 losing days in a row. I am still hungry and have a thirst for knowledge and as I said earlier this forum has filled in so many holes and I feel I am off to studying the "right" information. I know I am pretty intelligent and I am a sponge. Feel like I've soaked up some not so good info, but this site is changing that.

 

After the losing I analyzed everything and with the help of this forum have decided to switch to the NQ as opposed to the TF. My line of thinking is well obviously the TF can be more profitable I guess on a point per point basis but I can also lose more from my account faster. Since my results speak for themselves I decided to switch so I can either use the same amount of risk monetarily and give my trades more room to work or I can use the same stop placement I have been using and essentially double the amount of time I could trade my account based off the losses, if that makes sense. I have also gone back to paper trading. I jumped in to live trading so fast because of other personal reasons so I was in a rush to show some profit and that I could do this for a living. Its hindered my ability and I guess my emotions, but I am putting all that aside now.

 

That is my little intro, sorry to ramble and I apologize if I have interrupted the flow of this thread. Just wanted to tell you all how new at this I am so if my posting of charts or responses seems amateurish I apologize. Maybe my being so new and having great people in this forum willing to help and almost teach can help you all as well. Refresh the basics etc. I always found when I teach someone it heightens my knowledge or allows that knowledge to sink in better.

 

Thanks for listening. I'm so pumped. I'll post my chart when I can.

[tupapa 10]

Yesterday the Dow Jones chart cached my eye, as I noticed unusually high volume on September the 21st, so I decided to start following it and make an assessment of market conditions.

 

Starting with the weekly, price is approaching all time highs around 14,000, this level was rejected aggressively in 2008 and price is now attempting to test it.

In 2009, price climaxed around 6500 and since then it has had 4 up waves, we are currently in wave 4, which is finding R around 13,700. I noticed how each wave is shorter than the previous,both in terms of length and time, which suggests a lessening of buying pressure and/or an increase in selling pressure.

 

Now on to the last 6 months action, which represents wave 4, we can notice how price has broken R at 13,300 and the TrendLine remains intact, so far so good, but what I thought was most interesting about this chart was the sudden increase in volume marked with a red circle on Sep. 21st . Is this evidence of distribution?

 

I think it will be an interesting one to follow over the next few weeks.

[20814md 10]

Tupapa: the explanation for the high volume on Friday Sept 21 was due to Triple Witching.

[tupapa 10]

Tupapa: the explanation for the high volume on Friday Sept 21 was due to Triple Witching.

 

Ah thanks mate was totally unaware of this.. Regardless i think the index is in an interesting position, lets see how thd week develops.

 

Any other thoughts on this are welcomed

[Gringo 10]

For you tupapa:

 

To trade of daily chart looking at the weekly becomes important to identify longer term S&R zones.

 

Weekly:

 

Daily:

 

Gringo

Edited October 8, 2012 by Gringo

[franko 10]

1. this is intended to complement gringos 5hr chart.

2. boxes 1,2,3 and 4 were drawn before the mp profile was put in place.

3. the midpoint of the boxes is where trader's value residues and shows on the profile with the exception of box no. 2, which showed no value then as now. i left it on the chart for several days while it was being accepted and rejected many times. took it down thinking that it had been "used up". it's mid point did serve as a valid operational line while there.

4. the above area of profile showed no value but rather value spikes. they are marked by a vertical red line for the area and 4 or 5 red dotted lines for the spikes. maybe area of chop?

5. gringo has a box at 2800 - 2780. my no 3 box encompasses most of it so i didn't mark it.

6. gringo's 2820 - 2780 box makes sense from a visual point but no profile to confirm v99.

[Gringo 10]

2798

2793

2788

2780

 

There's quite a bit of space between 2788/7 to 2780. That's a 7-8 point drop if price goes there.

 

For early decision making 2788 above is long and below it is short.

2793 above is long and below might be short.

 

The tricky part is that the range is 5 points wide, which is not wide enough but may act as a launching pad for a directional move either way. I'll see price behaviour but most likely take the position when presented.

 

NQ has been giving false signals early and then going in the opposite direction. Sill I am going to take the entry as you never know which might not be the fake.

 

 

 

Gringo

 

p.s. There's a holiday in Canada today so I might be distracted as I am home. Might just leave in the middle if domestic pressure increases

[Gringo 10]

look like 2793 could have a BO upwards.

[Gringo 10]

2793 failed BO? Short below?

[DbPhoenix 42]

Since $ bounced so decisively off 2780, I'd back up to the more major 2780 to 2820 view.

 

Db

[Gringo 10]

looking for test around 2782. looks like successful test.

edit\: 2780 test. though price is not rebounding enthusiastically as early morning.

[DbPhoenix 42]

The fact that it made a round-trip is not a plus.

 

Db

[Gringo 10]

2785-2786 might give some clue as to the strength or weakness of demand.

[DbPhoenix 42]

88 will be a 50% RET.

 

Db

[Gringo 10]

50% RET was a neat little trick Db!

 

Gringo

[DbPhoenix 42]

Watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat...

 

Db

[Gringo 10]

more action below 2780 it seems.

 

Gringo

[blocp 10]

here is my analysis and levels for today.