Trading The Wyckoff Way

[tupapa 10]

Since you quoted me, I assumed the question was directed to me. Gringo's not trading today.

 

But speaking of learning, are we not re-examining your backtest any more?

 

Db

 

Ye sorry it was a misquote.

 

Ah I'm glad you asked, I didn't get much time yesterday and today is again busy but I should have something for you and the rest of the forum over the weekend.

[Gringo 10]

Db,

I am trading but with more focus on the bigger picture.

I am done now. It's too close to 11.

 

Gringo

 

Took the long Stop buy of the day. After this I might be done.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Ah I'm glad you asked, I didn't get much time yesterday and today is again busy but I should have something for you and the rest of the forum over the weekend.

 

It's up to you. I don't have much time to spend on this, so if you're in no hurry, I'll just leave things as they are.

 

Db

[tomerok 10]

Hi

 

continuing my post from the TIF thread....

 

FWIW that's how my day looked liked

I narrated my thoughts on the charts as time passed

entries are colored circles

i kept the chart as it was in real time.

 

4 first trades were according to my rules

 

6 also

5 and 7 were not

 

 

Tomer

[Gringo 10]

Today wasn't bad. I was a little slower in recognizing changes in direction perhaps because there were quite a few directional changes.

 

In the beginning got the long early but when RET came was looking for long re-entry but was surprised when price dropped through 2806 strongly. Jumped to the short by 2805 and was ok. I am not sure if there was a way to tell in advance that was going to happen but the fact that I took the short at least for me was nice in the sense I was alert to going the other way after such a rise a few minutes ago.

 

The green DL was the only region I couldn't catch. I was short and then exited after the test and subsequent price rise but hesitated. Didn't want to jump in mid way and was waiting for a RET that never came. I was kind of mentally geared towards down move which slowed the switch a bit. Got the short down after price stalled again though and was back in synch. Tried a few long/shorts at multiple places but was quick to exit and re-enter as required.

 

10:09 to 10:15 am had one long and one short stop-outs so stopped to gather my thoughts and observed for a few mins and then caught the down move. Calming down for a few minutes did help. (This was today's objective to re-set after two stop-outs).

 

I tired to keep my mind open to price changes and seem to have done a better job than yesterday. Over time there is hope. Today was a gain of 15.75 points.

 

 

Gringo

Edited September 28, 2012 by Gringo

[Gringo 10]

You did not trade incorrectly at the open. But

once you were SO of both short and long trades, you should have

stopped, since this is an even faster indication of a coming trading

range than a lower high and higher low.

 

I'll keep this in mind. And today I did at least to my understanding.

 

You've probably noticed by now that once we begin trading for real,

our focus turns laser-like toward our trade and its course, ignoring

everything else that's happening around us. If you're going to

succeed, you have to get over this. If you can't, then take a break

from RT trading and go back to studying price movement, in RT,

instead. If nothing else, it will help clear your mind.

 

I'll attempt to keep the bigger picture in mind instead of only

focusing on my trade to the exclusion of other clues. I am open to

just observing price behavior if my recognition of price behavior

doesn't improve. Making some kind of entry decision does involve my

senses more though.

 

I won't be able to continue doing this regularly due to

scheduling issues at work. Getting some sense of how I use my plan in RT

on the whole has its advantages as well. As soon as I get busy at work it will be

back to price behaviour observation for me. If you feel at certain time I am regressing let me know and I'll back off from RT.

 

There are no plans for me of going live if ever before valentine's

day next year. This does give reasonable time to get things sorted

out. I take your suggestions very seriously now Db. The school of hard knocks has taught me the value of valuing experience.

 

As for the hinge, shame on you . You got faked out on both sides,

and you know better. Never buy/short a BO from a hinge; buy/short the

RET. That at least would have saved you two trades and might have

freed you to note that traders were creating a support level at 78.

 

I have updated my plan to engage in action involving hinges of any sort only after a RET.

 

This, if you'll recall, is an excellent example of The Dog That Didn't

Bark. If price were going to fall, it would have. But it didn't. So

that leaves two outcomes: sideways or up. Same thing when price began

banging against the 88 door for 15 minutes. It wasn't falling, so.....

Db

 

Yes, it is a wonderful example of the Dog That Didn't Bark. I shall strive in RT to attempt to hear the Dog that Didn't Bark.

 

Don't forget that S&R are zones, not rigid, inflexible lines. If the

lines are an issue, bring them only to 0930 and leave what comes in

the clear. You can always scroll back to see where you had drawn your

lines, but the action in front of you will be line-free. This may help

you see when traders are creating unexpected S&R levels or TRs.

Db

 

Today, I had two charts open so that I would focus more on 1min and keep an eye on the 15min to have the perspective.

 

Thank you Db,

 

Gringo

[tupapa 10]

I thought this was a very nice trade in terms of Wyckoff. I know there is no accumulation in futures, but the principles still apply.

 

Buyers are taking everything thats on offer around 2790, and price spent some time down here, so the extent of the move one might anticipate is large.

 

The first entry is exited at the break of the DL, but shortly after, price makes another HL and another opportunity to enter, at this time, the DL remains intact so there is no reason to exit.

[BearBullTrading 10]

 

Today: Look for reaction to see if move further down into "new" range or higher towards yesterdays breakdown point .

 

Move into lower range rejected. Back to mid point'ish of large trading range.

 

Took a small piece of a large pie today... Long above lowest red line, out on break of last demand line.

 

There were certainly opportunity to hold/add long positions.....but at least the golf if good

 

Cheers

[DbPhoenix 42]

Today wasn't bad. I was a little slower in recognizing changes in direction perhaps because there were quite a few directional changes.

 

In the beginning got the long early but when RET came was looking for long re-entry but was surprised when price dropped through 2806 strongly. Jumped to the short by 2805 and was ok. I am not sure if there was a way to tell in advance that was going to happen but the fact that I took the short at least for me was nice in the sense I was alert to going the other way after such a rise a few minutes ago.

 

The green DL was the only region I couldn't catch. I was short and then exited after the test and subsequent price rise but hesitated. Didn't want to jump in mid way and was waiting for a RET that never came. I was kind of mentally geared towards down move which slowed the switch a bit. Got the short down after price stalled again though and was back in synch. Tried a few long/shorts at multiple places but was quick to exit and re-enter as required.

 

10:09 to 10:15 am had one long and one short stop-outs so stopped to gather my thoughts and observed for a few mins and then caught the down move. Calming down for a few minutes did help. (This was today's objective to re-set after two stop-outs).

 

I tired to keep my mind open to price changes and seem to have done a better job than yesterday. Over time there is hope. Today was a gain of 15.75 points.

 

Gringo

 

This is excellent work. You were quick to reverse your initial long, I hope because you saw that TR above the action. That you took the plunge in stride (so to speak) is a biggie.

 

As for the rally off 96, there really wasn't any reason to expect a REV since there was no S there. However, if you were up to going long then reversing to a return to a short, that's great.

 

Very nice. Treat yourself to something.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

Hi

 

continuing my post from the TIF thread....

 

FWIW that's how my day looked liked

I narrated my thoughts on the charts as time passed

entries are colored circles

i kept the chart as it was in real time.

 

4 first trades were according to my rules

 

6 also

5 and 7 were not

 

 

Tomer

 

Why so late on 2 and 4? And why short at 5-7 since we're practically at S?

 

This is good stuff.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

I'm posting this not to encourage hot-dogging but to point out that one can detect RETs on a 1m chart in RT that would probably go unnoticed by anyone viewing the chart only in hindsight. However, one must be watching price move and the bars form in order to pick up on this.

 

The inset is from Tomerok's chart. It shows what's going on in that little hesitation shown in Gringo's chart. This is a legitimate springboard for a short entry.

 

Db

 

 

 

[Gringo 10]

Tomerok's chart is so clear. I am feeling jealous. Shorter bar interval does show things not visible in even the 1 minute. However, looking at only the 1 minute chart I would find it tough to identify that wiggle in the price bar that turned out to be a springboard.

 

Perhaps in time some dough will need to be spent to get the sharpest tool. Until then I'll enjoy Tomerok's chart and day-dream.

 

Gringo

[tomerok 10]

Tomerok's chart is so clear. I am feeling jealous. Shorter bar interval does show things not visible in even the 1 minute. However, looking at only the 1 minute chart I would find it tough to identify that wiggle in the price bar that turned out to be a springboard.

 

Perhaps in time some dough will need to be spent to get the sharpest tool. Until then I'll enjoy Tomerok's chart and day-dream.

 

Gringo

 

Gringo

 

It's tick charts, I found them reflecting PA more clearly to my eyes

and free (as in free beer :-) ).

 

Not promoting any software but ninja trader is free for sim use.

 

Tomer

Edited September 28, 2012 by tomerok

[tomerok 10]

Why so late on 2 and 4? And why short at 5-7 since we're practically at S?

 

This is good stuff.

 

Db

 

The entry on 2 was late due to lack of sellers on tape ( if I recall correctly... I'll replay it later on to verify)

4 was according to my rules, I'm waiting for price to reach near to the last swing high on a reversal, and in that specific pattern I did not see enough buyers as price went up

 

5 was hope

7 was plain stupidity after 6....

 

I working on realizing those in real time

 

Tomer

[Trader Nick 10]

Not much. Not that I have anything against him. I'm sure he's sincere. But the work is unnecessarily complicated. Way.

 

Since I haven't read every book on PA, and don't care to, I can't say that no one treats it with the simplicity that Wyckoff does, but that certainly seems to be the case. I see little to be gained by turning one's back on indicators and pooh-poohing that whole effort, then making PA itself into a collection of indicators through bar intervals, candles, patterns, a whole new lexicon of jargon, lists of rules, long series of if:then statements, the end result of which is that one stops looking at price and focuses on what is being used to illustrate it. If one is going to go that far, why not just slap a MACD and a stochastic on the chart and be done with it?

 

If one is watching price movement and begins to wonder if that movement is beginning to meet the requirements of a particular pattern or if a particular candle is beginning to exhibit the characteristics of a particular candle type, he has already drifted off into Indicator Land and is no longer focusing on trader behavior. He may even be waiting for the bar/candle to "close", which is a sure sign that you're talking about something other than price action.

 

Wyckoff is about the continuous flow of price, the course of which is determined by the shifting balance between demand and supply, or, if one prefers, the desires of buyers and sellers. Once one departs from that, he's no longer trading price, he's trading proxies of price.

 

Db

 

Thank you for taking the time to put so much time into your response and it makes so much sense. Glad to see your back and will have to come back to TL and follow your posts now seeing you're back. I did have Wyckoff's books and never did seem to make my way through them. I see that I might be doing my self a disservice.

 

Looking forward to going though them.

[tupapa 10]

Hello Db, I am uploading some examples of my Bund testing. I hope these are more clear and look forward to hearing your views on the testing.

 

As I mentioned above, I look for S/R levels on the 30m chart and then scroll the 1m chart from left to right until I find the reversal set-up. I enter 1 tick above the close of the previous 1m bar and exit at the break of the DL.

 

I would like to start using the tick chart in order to find a better entry and not have tot rely on the close of a bar, which as we all know, is an arbitrary criteria. Unfortunately, my charting software doesn't provide with historical tick data, so I will have to study this in real-time.

[tupapa 10]

Hi

 

continuing my post from the TIF thread....

 

FWIW that's how my day looked liked

I narrated my thoughts on the charts as time passed

entries are colored circles

i kept the chart as it was in real time.

 

4 first trades were according to my rules

 

6 also

5 and 7 were not

 

 

Tomer

 

Hello Tomer, I've been looking at your chart and was wondering how come you went long at point 1 so close to R?

 

Also you mentioned a few times you pased a trade because you didn't see enough buyers on the tape or enough sellers. Are you using a price ladder to read the volumes?

 

I've been observing the ladder recently and often, focusing on how much volume is going through can be deceiving and lead to hesitation so I am considering ignoring it and focusing on the tick chart.

 

For instance, yesterday I took a short at point 2 in the following chart:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachments/103/31576d1348833829-tupapas-log-28-09-morning.jpg

 

I was looking at the ladder and saw big size hitting the offer at 141.57 for some time, which made me doubt, but in the end price fell another 10 ticks.

 

Thanks for sharing ur trading.

[tomerok 10]

Hello Tomer, I've been looking at your chart and was wondering how come you went long at point 1 so close to R?

 

Also you mentioned a few times you pased a trade because you didn't see enough buyers on the tape or enough sellers. Are you using a price ladder to read the volumes?

 

I've been observing the ladder recently and often, focusing on how much volume is going through can be deceiving and lead to hesitation so I am considering ignoring it and focusing on the tick chart.

 

For instance, yesterday I took a short at point 2 in the following chart:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachments/103/31576d1348833829-tupapas-log-28-09-morning.jpg

 

I was looking at the ladder and saw big size hitting the offer at 141.57 for some time, which made me doubt, but in the end price fell another 10 ticks.

 

Thanks for sharing ur trading.

 

Hi tupapa.

actually i don't use the price ladder only 2 simple windows of time and sales (at least that is how they are named in ninjatrader)

 

I position both next to the 144 tick chart, and one of them is configured to filter 5+ lots.

with them (and the tick chart) i can get a sense of "speed" and direction of price.

i try to notice where the "big guys" are entering their trades and in which direction (bid/ask)

I don't care much for volume in real time, i only consider it in past term regarding areas of interest.

 

that is how i observe price in real time.

 

actually (funny coincidence....) i was thinking to myself the other day that this forum is missing a thread on tape reading to complete the picture, but i was too shy to propose it.

 

Tomer.

[tupapa 10]

I'd like to share 2 trades that I should've but didn't take during the day and I am know incorporating in my trading plan.

 

The first chart shows friday's bund morning session, notice how price ranged between 8:40 and 09:00, buyers won the battle pushing price up to R at 69, but here sellers pushed price back down to 141.50-48, where buyers come in again "defending" the midpoint of the range (Volume By Price showed a POC here).

 

Buyers won the battle again, and succeed in pushing price up, all the way through Resistance.

 

The second chart is of Thursday's session and it illustrates a similar concept, only this time it is a hinge that provides the support. Price bounces of 140.71 on 3 occasions during the session, specialy aggresive was the second bounce, represented by the first green circle, where price touched the level and got rejected instantly.

 

 

Does anyone else find these MidPoints to be useful for their trading? Feel free to share any ideas or views on how to trade these.

[BearBullTrading 10]

I don't know if this is the correct place for this....but there may be a trade someone could, would or should take , so....

 

Chart 1:

Strip back the chart to a line on close.

Whilst the close doesn't have any significance for intraday, on a daily+ I do look at it, as the close is the point we finally end up after everyone who wants to, big or small has had an opportunity to have their say.

Using the line chart we can identify a large Trading Range. Within the range we have a hinge.

The hinge was firstly broken to the upside, hitting the TR high before immediately moving back to the low end of the hinge where it spent a few days before a just as sharp move to the downside and subsequent rejection of the lows to end just above the approx midpoint & top of (inner) hinge..

 

Chart 2:

When we change to a bar chart we can see the extremes & another few touches of the TR high.

(Although not marked, it looks like there is a smaller TR within the large TR: approx 8.7000 > 9.100)

 

Chart 3 :

By adding (orange) lines at the extremes, we now have another hinge whilst the midpoint has stayed the same.

(Price has strayed out of the lower hinge line, but thats ok, it was fairly brief & they're just lines on a chart and have no magical power to make price do anything ;-) ).

I've also added a lower sloping (red) Trend line at the upper extremes.

 

So what scenarios do we have....

 

- Could already be short at the slight break of the low a couple of days ago, you could still be in, (although with a decent drawdown) if your SL is above the last swing high.

 

- Could already be long at the rejection of the lows, need to see it take out last swing high, break hinge to the upside.

 

- Could short here at upper hinge line with a tight SL above last swing high.

 

- Could buy break of hinge/swing High looking for test of TR high/TR line

 

The hinge demonstrates a coiling effect of pressure building, and as we have seen an excursion to both the upside and downside before rejection back into the TR. From here, as price moves through time, the hinge may be a spent force and we just drift either way within the range or a break may serve as a catalyst to exit the larger TR...we'll see

[pjohnm 10]

Oct 1 Pre Mkt

The sell off from the 25/09 has broke the DL from the July rally and subsequent action has shown weakness in the failure to break the 25/09 down rally midpoint at 2820.

There is however, a show of support at 2780 so this is our important S/R for today. 2790 and 2812 have also been more minor levels of S/R. (2800 is the MP of this range and in my case, one to avoid).

Pre Open - Support has been tested and held at 2780, sailed past 2790 and 2800 and we are now heading towards 2812 / 2820.

 

Gameplan

Short at R (2812 / 2820) if double tops and / or a DL has been broken

Long at 2790 / 2780, if a double bottom and / or SL has been broken

No trades at 2800

Long at 2812 + above a RET to the DL

Short at 2790- below a RET to the SL

 

Long at 2820+, above a RET to the DL

Short at 2780- below a RET to the SL

[DbPhoenix 42]

To All Members:

 

The following is a summary of my exchanges with tupapa re his trading plan:

 

So far my stats for the reversal pattern I am focused on is:

 

Win/lose=71%

Profit/loss=4.4

Max number of consecutive losers=3

Max Drawdown= 28 ticks

 

Bear in mind that this is just for a 16 day sample..

 

So 71% of all the trades you've taken over the last 16 days have been winners with a 4.4% profit?

 

Db

 

No, I have only been trading the Bund for 4 days so I have no statistics and I am still in the testing stage.

 

So the stats I just gave you are for the backtesting of a reversal pattern that I am familiar with in the NQ, a rejection of S/R with a double bottom or HL/LH and preferably with volume divergence. I knew from my past testing this pattern worked well in the NQ and from y backtesting in the bund, I have found it to also be profitable.

 

So as I said, I am currently working on my system based on reversals and pullbacks, I have nothing for you in terms of stats since at the moment I am just testing...

 

If the stats you provided are for a backtest of some sort, they are encouraging, but if they aren't proving to be valid in RT trading, then there clearly is a problem. Perhaps your planning isn't thorough enough. Perhaps you're not trading your plan. Perhaps your backtest wasn't constructed properly. Keeping daily and cumulative records of your stats will help keep you on track. Whether you are "just testing" or not isn't pertinent. If you don't maintain stats, the testing is pointless.

 

You say the stats you've provided are from backtesting you did in the NQ. These do not necessarily transfer to the Bund, but you say that you have also backtested the Bund and found your setup to be profitable in the Bund as well. How did you construct your backtest? Did you also forward-test whatever plan you came up with? What stats do you have for the backtest and the forward-test? Since you're trading two different setups simultaneously, are you keeping separate stats for each? You say you "have nothing" in terms of stats, but surely you have stats from your backtesting and, if done, your forward-testing. As for trading the Bund for only 4 days, as soon as you've made two trades, you can begin keeping these stats. If you don't keep them, then you'll have no idea what progress you're making, if any, in reaching your objectives and goals.

 

Db

 

The stats I provided in my previous post are from a 14 day Bund backtest which I structure in the following way:

 

1- Draw S/R levels on the 60min charts

2- Plot levels on the 1 min chart and start scrolling, from left to right until I see the setup, then I draw the S/L and scale out according to my plan.

 

From my previous backtesting in the NQ, I found this reversal setup work well and I can say the same for the Bund (as the previous stats show).

 

When I day trade my plan the results are different due to several reasons, so far I have found the following issues:

 

1- Sometimes I struggle to find S/R levels, or the set-up occurs nowhere near my levels, so I hesitate.

2- On occasions I don't wait for enough confirmation and take a losing trade.

3- Often, waiting for the previous 1m bar to close and then entering one tick above forces me to use a very wide stop, hence I am looking at the tick' to try to find a more effective entry signal.

 

These are only some of the problems I am finding when testing my plan in real-time, and yes, I am keeping stats of each trade I make and each setup individually, so I can evaluate each set-up and my performance and interpretation of it in real time.

 

1. Define "reversal setup".

 

2. You refer to "scaling out". How many lots are you trading in your backtests?

 

Db

 

As price approaches a level (S), I want to see buyers coming in aggressively and rejecting price at least 4 ticks. Then I wait for sellers to try again, and when price makes a HL or a double bottom, I enter with a buy stop above the previous 1m bar close.

 

This can take place in a 3 tick range from the level I plotted, so If i S at 40, I will take the reversal between 43 and 37. My stop is place below the LSL.

 

I am testing 2 lots, the first exited at the break of the DL, the second at the next LH or break LSL, whatever comes first.

 

 

Show me five charts from your Bund backtest that illustrate this setup.

 

Db

 

Here are the charts, as I mentioned in my above post, I am not a fan of placing a buy stop above the porevious bars close on the 1m chart, I'd much rather develop a mechanical signal such as a congestion on the tick chart or a HH, and HL,..

 

If I understand your process correctly, charts 1, 2, and 4 appear to be essentially BE trades, resulting in a W:L ratio of 2:5, or 40%. Is this correct?

 

Db

 

Yes they are BE even trades, although in chart 1, there is a re-entry straight after the first entry and same on chart 4.

 

I see only one setup in each chart. Is this incorrect?

 

Db

 

If you look at chart 1, there is another rejection followed by a lower high at 07:47.

 

The same in the 4th chart, price makes a LL at 138.98 and then a HL at 139.95.

 

That may be, but these trades aren't noted on the chart. If the charts aren't complete, you have no useful stats.

 

I forgot to point out that I consider any trade that doesn't lose money to be a winner.

 

This is incorrect. Even if you're trading commission-free, a BE trade is not a winner. It is null.

 

Db

 

To continue, review these five charts and show what trades you'd take trading only one lot. Show the entry and the exit for each.

 

Db

 

I am uploading some examples of my Bund testing. I hope these are more clear and look forward to hearing your views on the testing.

 

As I mentioned above, I look for S/R levels on the 30m chart and then scroll the 1m chart from left to right until I find the reversal set-up. I enter 1 tick above the close of the previous 1m bar and exit at the break of the DL.

 

I would like to start using the tick chart in order to find a better entry and not have tot rely on the close of a bar, which as we all know, is an arbitrary criteria. Unfortunately, my charting software doesn't provide with historical tick data, so I will have to study this in real-time.

 

Given the rather wide discrepancy between the RT results and the backtested results, there clearly are a number of problems here. Rather than my going into a lengthy explanation of them at this point, I suggest that members, in the spirit of aid and support, (a) read this exchange, examine these charts and what has been made available re a trading plan (see also below), determine what the problems are and (b) propose remedies for these problems. Those who do not possess the required level of altruism will find that these two tasks will be a worthwhile exercise, the process of which will be directly applicable to their own testing and trading plan formulation. As a context for structure, I suggest referring to the procedures for creating a trading plan which are outlined in the first post of this thread.

 

FYI, the following was posted in the Log thread on 9/19:

 

 

...here is a preliminary version of my trading plan. This is a very crude version of how I am trading and subjected to constant reviewing and improvement:

 

I trade only of support and resistance found from at least two larger timeframe charts, the daily is used to obtain major levels and the 10k Volume and 5k Volume chart is used to find smaller levels.

 

Entries:

 

I define a succesful test/Rejection as:

 

1- A double bottom/top on the 1m chart.

2- A HL/LH on the 1m chart.

 

I define a fakeout as:

 

1- Price beakouts through a level with apparent strenght, but is pushed back into the range rapidly, the bars are long and fast.

2- Price tries once again to move in the direction of the breakout, but it is slow and the bars are much smaller, resulting in a LH/HL

 

I define a successful retracement after a breakout as:

 

1- Price breaks through a level, and instead of being pushed back into the range, it retraces slowly, the bars are short and price sits there.

2- Price might range above the level for some time before the move.

 

Trade Entry:

 

-In the cases in which the above conditions are met, I will enter the trade 1 tick below/above the previous bar, in the direction of the trend, I let price come to me

 

Trade management:

 

1- First exit is the stop loss.

2- When price starts moving, I wait for a retracement and draw a D/S line.

3- The first lot is exited at the break of the line, once this happens I move the top for my second lot to breakeven.

4- The second lot is closed when price makes a LH or HL or breaks the LSH/LSL, whatever happens first.

 

 

Db

[tomerok 10]

01.10.2012

 

Good Morning.

My view of things...

 

Friday - finished with a downtrend, closing lower.

 

89 range - long term trend channel support acts as resistance

34 range - an up outside day, small trading range (small second box) seems invalid, first trading range (first box) middle acts as STRONG support, it's highs also acts as support

21,13 range - down TL from the highs forming a hinge...?!, PA from pre session breach it once.

 

144 tick chart - pre-session strong rise, currently sideways.

 

 

Points of interest for today (watch how price acts near them and act accordingly)

Support @ 2765, 2789

Resistance above 2813 and up to bull trend channel support

hinge (triangle) trend lines - we already breached once, if we pullback look for re-entry long.

 

Major news @ 10:00 and FED @ 12:30 so we might not see anything happen by then

 

Tomer.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Hi tupapa.

actually i don't use the price ladder only 2 simple windows of time and sales (at least that is how they are named in ninjatrader)

 

I position both next to the 144 tick chart, and one of them is configured to filter 5+ lots.

with them (and the tick chart) i can get a sense of "speed" and direction of price.

i try to notice where the "big guys" are entering their trades and in which direction (bid/ask)

I don't care much for volume in real time, i only consider it in past term regarding areas of interest.

 

that is how i observe price in real time.

 

actually (funny coincidence....) i was thinking to myself the other day that this forum is missing a thread on tape reading to complete the picture, but i was too shy to propose it.

 

Tomer.

 

What you're referring to isn't tape reading in the traditional sense. Actually, I don't know what you'd call it since the tape is comprised of trades. As such, bid and ask "volume" are irrelevant as they represent intent (unless they are completely fake), not completed transactions. If you wait to figure out what the "big guys" are doing, you will likely find that you are consistently late. This will, of course, cut into your profits.

 

These comments apply as well to "the Book". With a little research, you'll find that those -- at least those who post -- who take their cues from "the Book" will regularly stand aside or enter trades in the wrong direction while those who post here are making money. This isn't intended to be snarky; it's just the way it is. Same goes for those who trade "the news". We ignore it and do quite well. The same can't always be said for those who take their cues from it.

 

Db

[Gringo 10]

Pre-market even 2810 is a small S/R. 2812 has a larger S/R.

 

There's quite a bit of space between 2790 and 2806. If price goes there then RT price behaviour will become even more important to determine where traders are building S/R and which direction if any is likely for the price to move.

 

Strangely, 2800 hasn't provided much S/R however we can't discount that area to not act as S/R, therefore, I'll be keeping an eye on price to see what happens there in RT if we get there.

 

 

 

 

 

The 2806-2810 range is going to determine it appears the earlier direction. Or not.

 

Gringo