Trading The Wyckoff Way

[DbPhoenix 42]

Running out of time here. As John points out, we are hugging the midpoint of the hinge he charted. We are also at the midpoint of the preceding range and at the upper limit of the range before that. This adds all sorts of dynamics to the open.

 

Don't be a cowboy.

 

Db

[tomerok 10]

Pre market update from atick chart point of view

 

 

 

Tomer

[DbPhoenix 42]

My pre-market charts:

 

Today's resolution is to focus on price itself and take the entry when it comes instead of over analysing it closer to S/R and pink mini intra-day s/r.

 

Gringo

 

Thanks. But, in future, please try to get these posted no later than 10m before the open. There are a lot of lurkers out there, and I'd like time myself to comment on what you've posted, however useful that may or may not be. And now that others are posting charts, you all need time to look at each other's work.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

Pre market update from atick chart point of view

 

Thanks for the update, but, in case I haven't been clear, a tick chart, to me, is one tick. More than that and you're back to bars. But you've included the legend at the top of your chart, so there should be no confusion about the use of the work "tick".

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

To continue, review these five charts and show what trades you'd take trading only one lot. Show the entry and the exit for each.

 

Db

[pjohnm 10]

So the long at the hinge / pre mkt support didnt play out (2780.5), nor did the supply line hold, but interday support manifested itself at 2779 after the initial break of the supply line and opening high.

[Gringo 10]

Price was frustratingly not picking a direction earlier in the day. I ended up with a loss of 2.75 points for the day. A timely long was missed on my part as indicated on the chart but in RT the TR's all obove it kind of muddied the picture. Getting nicked after so many times it was tougher to pull the trigger as price did hover for 20secs after the one point rise but then blasted ahead. I knew at that time it was either time to jump in or hold my peace and I stayed put until further price movement showed some strength.

 

The buy/sell today seem like a drunk trader in action. I did keep coming back though. I noticed a hinge and played BO on both sides before getting slapped both ways with stops. I was very aware at that time it might not work out and exited when things didn't seem to be progressing in the intended direction.

 

My chart does show gaps often which unintentionally makes my entry and exit wider. Without that I could have been -1 point or so. Overall the gaps are not having an effect, just seeing price suddenly jump instead of in a flow gives a bit of a different meaning to the interpretation of supply and demand which gets somewhat magnified in RT and probably in the mind.

 

I thought I was not out of control today but the results are not favourable. Perhaps reflection later on will bring out something I missed. The shorts at times do look ridiculous but in RT I believed the BO to the downside was coming hence kept taking them.

 

Edited September 27, 2012 by Gringo

[DbPhoenix 42]

You did not trade incorrectly at the open. But once you were SO of both short and long trades, you should have stopped, since this is an even faster indication of a coming trading range than a lower high and higher low. You've probably noticed by now that once we begin trading for real, our focus turns laser-like toward our trade and its course, ignoring everything else that's happening around us. If you're going to succeed, you have to get over this. If you can't, then take a break from RT trading and go back to studying price movement, in RT, instead. If nothing else, it will help clear your mind.

 

As for the hinge, shame on you . You got faked out on both sides, and you know better. Never buy/short a BO from a hinge; buy/short the RET. That at least would have saved you two trades and might have freed you to note that traders were creating a support level at 78. This, if you'll recall, is an excellent example of The Dog That Didn't Bark. If price were going to fall, it would have. But it didn't. So that leaves two outcomes: sideways or up. Same thing when price began banging against the 88 door for 15 minutes. It wasn't falling, so.....

 

Don't forget that S&R are zones, not rigid, inflexible lines. If the lines are an issue, bring them only to 0930 and leave what comes in the clear. You can always scroll back to see where you had drawn your lines, but the action in front of you will be line-free. This may help you see when traders are creating unexpected S&R levels or TRs.

 

Db

[pjohnm 10]

Watching the open this morning was interesting because of the number of potential support zones. The pre mkt TR had its base at 2782- and the hinge that developed at the end of the previous day brought attention to 2780, (not forgetting longer term S at 2778). It would appear to me that confirmation of S would be needed in order to take a long i.e, a test. A supply line had also developed pre mkt to guard one against a long.

So what happened? We did get a successful test at 2778+ and price was kind enough to create a higher high as well as breaking the supply line before returning to 2778+ and hitting the wall.

Contrast this with similar action at the opening on the 26/09 where S had developed at 2782 30 mins after the open. There is a case for taking a long as soon as successful test of S appears, but there are 2 other factors to consider.

Has the supply line been broken? (If it exists)

And where is price in relation to the previous session?

In the case of the 26/09, the supply line had been broken, but price couldn't make a higher high and we were of course below the PDL.

As for the 27/09, we had a break of the supply line, followed by a higher high, aswell as higher lows since the PDL was made.

[BearBullTrading 10]

ok..time to join in...

 

Note: I've tried capturing my charts during the day. Some of the SL lines I've just watched visually rather than drawing on charts and have sometimes moved them.

 

One of the recently mentioned points that helped me stay on the right side today was just because price is near potential support don't just expect it to bounce.

 

Daily Chart:

(approx) Broad extremes of wide rading Range: 8.6000 / 9.6000

Price near low end of range. Poss Breakout ? of large "hinge".

- just mentioning above because as a daytrader not a reason in itself for me to get in

 

10 min / Overnight

Price tested prior day low. Last bar is "pit opening bar" heading back to approx mid of o/n upper range.

 

 

15 second chart

Price nicked the mid line. Broke demand line, Consolidation breaks = short.

 

1 Minute chart

I was "shaken out" in blue area at green line.Re entered short . Exit at break of supply line.

 

20 change chart

After break of supply line, attempt higher/HH before resumption lower. Price in sideways range before moved lower again.

 

Currently now at/near top of lower smaller range high lit on daily chart.

 

 

Wheat is same size tick/point as ES so pretty nice action & some smooth/decent opportunities either in 90 mins or for those who stayed (not me) around longer.

 

Cheers

[DbPhoenix 42]

ok..time to join in...

 

Well it's about damn time. You've been lurking for months

 

I was "shaken out" in blue area at green line.Re entered short . Exit at break of supply line.

 

If you're comfortable with all this, you can cut yourself a little slack and wait to see if price rallies above the LSH. If it doesn't, as here, you can avoid the whole exit-re-enter thing. But all you save is a commission, so you might feel better and stand aside while price does whatever it's going to do.

 

Clearly you've been paying attention. Welcome.

 

Db

[Trader Nick 10]

Hi DB -

 

I bought your book awhile ago and then you seemed to disappear for awhile. Forgive if this has been asked, but after reading your book I came across Price Action by Al Brooks and was wondering what you thought about some of this work..

 

This might be an unrelated question to ask in this post..

 

My apologies.

 

Nick

[DbPhoenix 42]

Not much. Not that I have anything against him. I'm sure he's sincere. But the work is unnecessarily complicated. Way.

 

Since I haven't read every book on PA, and don't care to, I can't say that no one treats it with the simplicity that Wyckoff does, but that certainly seems to be the case. I see little to be gained by turning one's back on indicators and pooh-poohing that whole effort, then making PA itself into a collection of indicators through bar intervals, candles, patterns, a whole new lexicon of jargon, lists of rules, long series of if:then statements, the end result of which is that one stops looking at price and focuses on what is being used to illustrate it. If one is going to go that far, why not just slap a MACD and a stochastic on the chart and be done with it?

 

If one is watching price movement and begins to wonder if that movement is beginning to meet the requirements of a particular pattern or if a particular candle is beginning to exhibit the characteristics of a particular candle type, he has already drifted off into Indicator Land and is no longer focusing on trader behavior. He may even be waiting for the bar/candle to "close", which is a sure sign that you're talking about something other than price action.

 

Wyckoff is about the continuous flow of price, the course of which is determined by the shifting balance between demand and supply, or, if one prefers, the desires of buyers and sellers. Once one departs from that, he's no longer trading price, he's trading proxies of price.

 

Db

[tomerok 10]

28.09.2012

 

Good morning.

 

Yesterday (144 Tick chart) - Price tested support at the start of the session, then tested resistance at the high of then, but only after 11:30 major support showed it's power and price went up.

 

89 Range - After testing support price went back to major SL, new major support for future use is around 2778 - 2788.

 

34,21 Range - Inside day, price descending, might be a pullback might be a reversal

 

13 Range - a potential TL from the lows, will consider it if/when price gets near.

 

Points of interest for today

S around 2794

major SL if price head up

round number 2800

 

 

Tomer.

[pjohnm 10]

28/09 Pre Mkt

Failure to break mid point of 21/09 - 26/09 downmove.

Overnight supplyline converging on demand line from 26/09 mid session. (At long term S/R of 2800)

[Gringo 10]

Today's objective.

 

1) Focus on the the overall picture instead of focusing only on the trade itself.

2) Two consecutive stop outs, one in each direction should alert to possible TR.

3) Wait for RET before entering from a hinge.

 

 

 

Gringo

[DbPhoenix 42]

Looks like it's just us.

 

I suggest that the air pocket bet 94 and 04 will be of interest. There's really nothing to stop a move down. 08 appears to be acting as R.

 

We'll see.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

Up to more serious R at that 12-19 TR.

 

Db

[BearBullTrading 10]

Daily

Price at top of small range

 

10 min / Overnight

Range for last few hrs of o/n session. Closed at prior day close.

 

Today: Look for reaction to see if move further down into "new" range or higher towards yesterdays breakdown point .

 

or more tempting may be just watch the Ryder Cup.

 

Cheers

[tupapa 10]

Support at 96 but nothing outrageous in terms of volume, now re testing the lows... I am just watching by the way.

 

Just breaking the lows and seems like little support, the tentative air gap is acting like it is.

 

Just dropped 5 points in 3 min, what a great trade that would've been.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Looks like it's just us.

 

I suggest that the air pocket bet 94 and 04 will be of interest. There's really nothing to stop a move down. 08 appears to be acting as R.

 

We'll see.

 

Db

 

And here we are at 94. Possible next stop: 88.

 

Db

[tupapa 10]

And here we are at 94. Possible next stop: 88.

 

Db

 

Would you be looking for a short now around 575? As Price re-tests the previous Support?

[DbPhoenix 42]

What is 575?

 

Db

 

.........

[tupapa 10]

What is 575?

 

Db

 

.........

 

I meant 279575......

 

Don't worry, my question was more directed towards Gringo, who I know is also learning.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I meant 279575......

 

Don't worry, my question was more directed towards Gringo, who I know is also learning.

 

Since you quoted me, I assumed the question was directed to me. Gringo's not trading today.

 

But speaking of learning, are we not re-examining your backtest any more?

 

Db