Trading The Wyckoff Way

[dandxg 10]

Whatever you think about the more esoteric Gann stuff he preached pretty robust money management ideas and wrote some pretty solid stuff on price action. You don't really need much more than that.

 

Its funny you mention that because when I heard Tim Morge speak he said he really loves AP, but if it weren't for the often 3-1 R to R he wouldn't use it.

[dandxg 10]

I will take it this still a serious discussion that I have been thinking a lot about lately. I came into trading being told that Gann was nonsense, it didn't work, all that from people like Alexander Elder and his kid. I spend a good deal of time learning VSA and Wyckoff. I am changing my attitude on Gann having spoke to people that use his methods and trying some of the more elementary stuff myself. Stuff like Murrey Math which work pretty well used in conjunction with Wyckoff. If you step back from the mystique and look at the earlier workings of Gann its all based on geometry. Pyrapoint looks promising but I can only bite off so much. The astro stuff I haven't delved into much.

 

What it comes down to is do you believe you can predict cycles. Some astro ppl are calling for a big move on March 10, Mars Direct, most of the say up. A software from the Foundation For the Study of Cycles predicts an up move about March 12th. Will be interesting to see.

 

P.S if I didn't spell it out clearly, cuz Im tired, is the compliment each other. Use volume to determine if a Gann angle will turn there. The funny thing is Gann viewed time the most important, price second, and last volume so a bit of a direct conflict there but I use them together.

 

I only have access to FFSC software for another day and their weekly cycle turn date is now March 19th and March 17 for daily. This stuff has a plus minus factor of 1 and I am still watching and learning with cautious dose of obtimism.

[forrestang 10]

Thoughts for 5 March 2010.

 

[DaKine 10]

Here's a LT view

 

3 Day Range

 

Watching for a break out of the 62-42 range

 

To the upside w/conviction 1900s possible - Previous Range H above and New Daily H

 

Failure to get to or stay above 62s and we could see a break of 42s - 40s down to 30s 20s...

 

TOGuru had this view Wednesday, but S held, with tomorrow's news it should be interesting ...

 

Edited March 5, 2010 by DaKine
because i said so

[BlowFish 10]

Its funny you mention that because when I heard Tim Morge speak he said he really loves AP, but if it weren't for the often 3-1 R to R he wouldn't use it.

 

I really like how Tim talks through trade management. A great grasp of price action and using it in ongoing trade management. While he likes the big R:R he is pragmatic enough to acknowledge it is not the only way and will happily (and I mean happily) allow himself to be stopped out for a lot less. Still whatever your approach Tim's stuff is great for how to work a trade.

[forrestang 10]

Thoughts for tomorrow based on where price is currently, a bit under 10 hours before U.S. Open.

 

We are currently in between a range from 1890-1882 or so. Below that is 1882-1868, in which the midpoint where price has stalled several times in the past may come into play. There is also a potential for resistance to come into play in that small range above.

 

[forrestang 10]

Thoughts for tomorrow based on where price is currently, a bit under 10 hours before U.S. Open.

 

We are currently in between a range from 1890-1882 or so. Below that is 1882-1868, in which the midpoint where price has stalled several times in the past may come into play. There is also a potential for resistance to come into play in that small range above.

 

Seems there wasn't much to trade today. Follow along.....

 

Shown is the activity today, accompanied by PA on the 5sec chart. Price opened up today, rapidly moving through the "Areas of Interest" I identified last night. Price then created a new range today(purple square).

 

I was looking for an entry at point 1, as there was a bit of climactic action, but there was never a retest after this.

 

Points 2-5, nothing climactic seemed to appear while looking for trades at this range.

 

Point 6 did have my ears up as price approached the lower edge of the new range created about, but during time of day (looking to initiate within first 90 minutes), I let it pass.

 

There was a slightly climactic expansion of both volume and price at point 6, and a TD. I was looking for more of a test of that low point, and PA put in that HL. So the entry didn't happen for me.

 

[forrestang 10]

Price opened up today, rapidly moving through the "Areas of Interest" I identified last night. Price then created a new range today......

 

That above mentioned range is shown on the green rectangle, and could possibly come into play tomorrow. That level @ 1890 just happens to coincide with this midpoint.

 

Not shown in the picture are also possible areas of interest at 1900,1910 and 1920.

 

[forrestang 10]

That above mentioned range is shown on the green rectangle, and could possibly come into play tomorrow. That level @ 1890 just happens to coincide with this midpoint.

 

Not shown in the picture are also possible areas of interest at 1900,1910 and 1920.

 

 

Recap of what happened today:

Shown below is the chart of the activity as it happened today, all of the levels on the chart where there prior to the open, as discussed the night prior. Nonetheless, I didn't see any trade opportunities today, except maybe the long after the market open if one caught it. Note mainly that I am only looking to initiate within the first 2 hours or so.

 

 

For Tomorrow:

I am keeping the levels as shown on the chart as they are now (as long as nothing drastic happens overnight). With the addition of the level annotated on the chart that I think is worth paying attention to.

Edited March 10, 2010 by forrestang

[forrestang 10]

 

 

For Tomorrow:

I am keeping the levels as shown on the chart as they are now (as long as nothing drastic happens overnight). With the addition of the level annotated on the chart that I think is worth paying attention to.

 

Market activity today shown (in green square), along with the levels posted yesterday.

 

For tomorrow, I am not making any changes as of now.

 

[forrestang 10]

Market activity today shown (in green square), along with the levels posted yesterday.

 

For tomorrow, I am not making any changes as of now.

 

 

RECAP OF TODAY:

Shown are the two major levels that the market used for most of the day, particularly how they were used in the first two hours. Some nice opportunity there.

 

FOR TOMORROW:

My intraday data for SC is rather lacking, so I am using a daily chart, similar to the manner in which I pulled 1910 and 1920.... so needless to say I only have the 1940-44 area above where we currently are. Things will become clearer if/when we start to hammer out a more defined range up here.

 

NOTE: Even though I can't seem to see it on the daily chart, I wouldn't be surprised if 1930 comes into play, given that it seems the NQ finds areas on multiples of 10 lately....at least it seems that way?

 

Everything else on the chart will remain the same as it is now.

[forrestang 10]

Thoughts for tomorrow:

 

Levels on the chart are shown, along with the ranges I see relevant. Also highlighting the 1930 and the 1940 area just in case.

 

Not also the 1914 level, this just happens to be a prior rth POC and rth low/midpoint of that one boxy area shown. By open it may be gone and used but as of now might come into play?

 

[ochie 10]

Not also the 1914 level, this just happens to be a prior rth POC and rth low/midpoint of that one boxy area shown.

 

Used to point these out in chat a while ago. Not sure if at the time anyone took them seriously.

Edited March 15, 2010 by ochie

[forrestang 10]

Recap of Today:

 

Note also the 1914 level, this just happens to be a prior rth POC and rth low/midpoint of that one boxy area shown. By open it may be gone and used but as of now might come into play?

 

Price did wind up getting a great bounce off that 14 area at the open, but 1914 was a nice reaction first thing after open!! There was more of a reaction to the downside after price broke through and bounced off it and headed down.

 

But the rest is in the green square, we did accumulate for a good while in that 1905 area. Maybe a decent long right on the open.

 

 

Thoughts on Tomorrow:

Some good ranges shown here on the chart. Also 1930 and 1940 are possible areas above.

 

 

Used to point these out in chat a while ago. Not sure if at the time anyone took them seriously.

Kewl. I have been observing these as well. I have not posted much about them, but I have found some very nice opportunities in those areas recently.

 

If anyone else is interested, take a look at a similiar chart as shown below, and see what you think. One thing for sure, is that it's easy to recognize when certain trading conditions are present, namely that the market is range bound and likely to present good ranged conditions.... if market is in strong trend, these POCs are visited much less, and if constantly moving in between, more likely that we are in good ranged conditions.

 

Edited March 16, 2010 by forrestang

[forrestang 10]

I have highlighted an area the price moved to right after the open.

 

Just based on a micro entry perspective, is there anything here that looks like a good entry? IMO there seems to be no serious expansion in Vol, although price was moving rapidly into it.

 

 

[forrestang 10]

Recap of Today:

 

 

Some good ranges shown here on the chart. Also 1930 and 1940 are possible areas

 

Recap of Today:

So the 1930 area got some play a bit after open. Shown are the main range that came into play today, along with a bit of shifting towards the bottom edge of that range. Also above that range, we got a bit of a range from that 24-30 area.

 

Thoughts for tomorrow:

Not changing much as of now. I'm showing what seem to be the larger distinct ranges as the way I see it as it sits now, although there is still much in between.

 

We still have the 1940 above. This 1928 -30 area seems to be more or less a zone of resistance at the moment with today's high and POC in this area.

[forrestang 10]

Recap of Today:

I did not post chart last night, but here is how things played out with my levels. All looks easy in HS, but not always so clear in real time.

 

Thoughts for Tomorrow:

Not changing anything, I see potential above as shown on the chart, at least the daily seems that way, but who knows?

[ochie 10]

Just a quick note: NQ is near a high dating back to 8/15/08. A 2-day range (14th, 15th) has a midpoint of 1964.00 which also is a prior POC which is virgin. The high for that day is 1977.25 according to my chart. May or may not come into play today.

 

[forrestang 10]

What I'm looking at for today.

 

We can see the area the market spent some time in yesterday with that range from 45 to 50, this range was used more in AH. There is also yesterday high there too.

 

So there appears to be some clear ranges there.

 

Also the level above pulled from the Daily.

 

[forrestang 10]

What I'm looking at for today.

 

Recap of Yesterday:

Wow, I probably couldn't have drawn the levels any better if I had waited for the market to close. As the market reacted nicely to the levels yesterday. IT even reacted nicely to that large overhead resistance above picked from the daily. It even confirmed that there was a lot of air there as it went straight up.

 

Thoughts on Today:

[ochie 10]

Follow up from my previous post:

 

Today NQ made a LH (within 4 points) from that high on 8/15/08 previously mentioned. That POC (also mentioned at 1964.00) appears to have had influence becoming today’s High VOL Level (magenta line) and producing two nice reactions later in the session.

Reaction appears strong off that high as we are currently trading below yesterdays low.

 

I see possible support levels tomorrow around 43.50 (prior POC), 40.75 and 35 but not thrilled about longs from what I see so far this evening.

 

[ochie 10]

Quick update 8:50 PDT:

 

The 43.50 level appears holding with good separation. If 50 level is taken out I see next R in the 52.75 – 54.50 area.

 

 

[CType 10]

I've been reading the post in this thread, and I really have some learning to do. Hope you will bear my basic questions.

 

I've read the Wyckoff 'Charting the stock Market' by Jack Hutson, and am in the process of reading the seemingly endless Wycokoff pdf files. This is really great of you guys to do this btw. Thank you

 

On the types of charts to use he mentions - Composite averages, Group, Individual stocks, and the wave chart. Here is what I believe he means.

Composite Averages - This would be the S&P500 or 100, the Dow, and Nasdaq.

Group Charts - What I'm useing for this at the moment are Trasnportation Services (Third party logistic and trucking) and Building Material. So I have about 12 Transportation charts, and 5 on Building material. This would be the Group of stocks he speaks of?

Group Averages - Don't know what this means exactly. Can't seem to find averages on one particular group.

Individual charts - I'll assume this would have to be one stock in the group you are planning to trade in,

Wave Chart - No at all sure what this is.

 

Tried to use search, but it doesn't seem to search only on thread.

 

Thanks

 

Bill

[erierambler 10]

I've been reading the post in this thread, and I really have some learning to do. Hope you will bear my basic questions.

 

 

 

On the types of charts to use he mentions - Composite averages, Group, Individual stocks, and the wave chart. Here is what I believe he means.

Composite Averages - This would be the S&P500 or 100, the Dow, and Nasdaq.

 

Yes and Industrials, Utilities, and Transports as well as the nine sectors...XLF, XLE , etc.

 

Group Charts - What I'm useing for this at the moment are Trasnportation Services (Third party logistic and trucking) and Building Material. So I have about 12 Transportation charts, and 5 on Building material. This would be the Group of stocks he speaks of?

 

Yes you can to Big charts and see many groups there.

 

Group Averages - Don't know what this means exactly. Can't seem to find averages on one particular group.

 

Again Bigcharts

 

Individual charts - I'll assume this would have to be one stock in the group you are planning to trade in,

 

Yes

 

Wave Chart - No at all sure what this is.

 

Take the leaders, such as IBM and HPQ, etc and use a software to join them together with volume to make your wave chart.

 

But everyone that reads the book will have their own interpretation, have fun.......

 

erie

[dla133 10]

HI,

 

I have a question for those people out there that have a greater understanding about price movements with regards to supply and demand than I do. I understand the if supply is greater than demand prices will fall. I also understand if demand is greater than supply than prices will rise. However I have heard about how markets can be manipulated so that weak holders are forced to sell at low prices by strong holders and how strong holders can get weak holders to buy at high prices for fear of missing out. This makes me think that there is almost a conspiracy were price is being manipulated somehow. This is were my confusion starts to come in. :doh:

 

How do the strong holders get the price to move to a certain level without first buying or selling. Is this done by them placing orders to buy at low prices and then the market makers moving the price lower to force the weak holders to sell from fear of losing all their money.

 

The same is true in reverse were the strong holders make offers to sell at high prices and the market makers moving the price up causing the weak holders to get nervous that they are missing out and buy at a high price with no one to sell to so the price then falls again?

 

If market manipulation is true in the favour of the strong holders then to become a successful trader you almost have to do the complete opposite of what comes naturally. Look to buy when everyone else is panicing and selling and look to sell when everyone else is becoming greedy and buying.

 

Some people talk about how the strong holders can not hide their activity due to the high volume like how they buy into a selling climax and sell into a buying climax. You only know for sure that one of these has probably taken place when there is a test which confirms it. However could a selling climax or a buying climax not be a strong holder doing the complete opposite also and selling into a selling climax and buying into a buying climax?

 

So I suppose what I am really asking is how do you know who is really moving the market, is it weak or strong holders.

 

For clarity I refer to weak holders as the general public who lose money and strong holders as the professionals who make money.

 

Kind Regards

Lee