Trading The Wyckoff Way

[Head2k 10]

[thalestrader 14]

Here is a good thread that deserves more attention and activity.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Head2k 10]

So far it doesn't look like rejectiion in the zone around 60. Also, unfortunatelly, the blue uptrend channel is pretty creepy and, at least for me, reversals of creepy trends are more difficult to take.

Anyway, if price is rejected form the zone, then I might short a retest. Then I will look for a long off the zone above 32.

Or I might take a a continuation trade after a break-in into the previous range, that is after breaking the entire ~60 zone plus a bit more.

If we go up, then I will look for a reversal off the zone around 85 or break-in into the range above. I marked also the 73 midpoint, but I won't do anything there since I expect price to breach the largest supply line.

[subterfuge 10]

what happened to firewalker??

[strohem 10]

TTT

 

The "Figure Chart" is not standard compliment..

 

Some obvious observations

any others ?

 

motorway

 

Fascinating discussion. This is the second time I've viewed this thread. I have some questions - on and slightly off topic...

 

1) Motorway, in an earlier post, you made mention of the 45 degree angles that more recent advocates of PnF chartists use. I'm unclear as to whether or not you feel they are valid within the confines of a PnF-only methodology. Could you spend a little more time on that matter?

 

2) I've always felt I had a reasonably strong grasp on PnF and would consider it my foundation with respect to RS and portfolio construction and risk management (Bullish Percents), not to mention that I've had great success swing and position trading with it. I agree that it is misunderstood.

 

I'd like to admit I used it solely as my strategy, but that's not true. I learned vertical charts and volume studies first. After being mentored in PnF, however, I was encouraged to learn Wyckoff. (I did, but not as deeply as I should have.) Make no mistake - I still have an uncontrollable habit of mentally transposing bar chart data into a 3 box reversal PnF chart and remembering it that way.

 

I'd like to know how many others have sort of "amalgamated" this craft with other forms of analysis. Anybody care to pipe up/chime in??

 

3) Can this thread be resurrected? Others here who wish to keep the discussions ongoing?

 

4) I heard that Craig Schroeder had some setbacks... anyone aware of the latest with him?

 

 

S

[motorway 10]

45 degree lines were used in Wyckoff's day

They only make sense on P&F charts

 

Gann tried to make them work on bar charts

because of his view on time ==> That because you knew what the time on a clock would be at ANY time in the future , you could PREDICT .

 

So he squared PRICE and TIME FRAME ( not with time but with TIME FRAME--WRONG )

 

P&F chart IS a SQUARED CHART of MARKET EVENTS in INTRINSIC TIME

 

There are only real forces that make the BOXES and make the BOXES move.

 

These are WORK and ENERGY,

 

45 angle is a measure of a certain .probability distribution of the BOXES ( EVENTS )

 

John DURAND (1926 ) gave it a number and said it was the distribution of MANIPULATION

( as Distinct From RANDOM )

 

It is also an objective context for momenta ... curvature of the price series ( trend ) and acceleration and deceleration ( changes in TREND )

 

RDW did not use.. but it IS the relationship of cause and effect ,, and in drawing trend lines.. you end up drawing many at 45 .. because of what it represents ( a reality )

 

When stocks were in 1/8s this had significance for low priced stocks and BOX size ( 1 pt )

 

meant for many stocks a P&F chart was a very low resolution chart

 

NOT NOW some things in practise are DIFFERENT..

 

eg log charts ? ( log BOXES ? )

 

and yes we can use ( SHOULD USE ) ALL FACTORS

 

PRICE MOVEMENT (in INTRINSIC TIME==> EVENTS OF WORK AND ENERGY )

 

TIME ELEMENT ( THIS IS DURATION , How LONG demand supply have ball IS important and what they then achieve with it )

 

Volume and Intensity of ACTION

 

pressure and support..

 

 

USE of NESTING SCALES as waves build UP and DOWN..

 

B% is a type of POSITION SHEET

 

P&F RS is a powerful screening tool and QUALIFYING TOOL..

 

The Figure Chart... regards FIXED TIME FRAMES as NOISE

But NOT TIME in a WYCKOFF SENSE that is an IMPORTANT MEASURE..

 

TIME is IMPORTANT

TIME FRAME does not exist

TIME HORIZONS EXIST..

 

A 45 line is an example

of CONSTRUCTAL LAW ( google it )

 

The Constructal Law/Principle:

 

"For a finite-size (flow) system to persist in time (to live), its configuration must evolve such that it provides easier access to the imposed currents that flow through it."

 

Motorway

 

Enantiodromia

[GhostofLivermore 10]

Does anyone use ADV / DEC volume ma's to help find top/bottoms?

 

If so where do you find the info these days?

 

Thanks

[erierambler 10]

Ghost,

I get my data from stockcharts.com . Watch the issues as well as the volume ma's.

 

erie

[wjrusnak 10]

Well I decided to start this exercise again, since it helped me prepare so much in the past. I plan to get rid of this full-time job soon and get back to trading for the remainder of my year off before medical school. This would be much better for my own development than a low-paying job anyway. For the next couple of weeks, I will be posting my charts, but only trading on a select few days. Unfortunately, tomorrow will be one of those "not trading" days. This is basically just for the practice of preparation. So, without further ado...

 

 

• Short 1760 and possibly 1750 if the setup is nice (or if weakness appears via rejection in the AM)
  
• Long 1720 (if it got there) or quite possibly look for a long to begin at ~1732 (more in the middle though)
  
• I would also Long a hit to the newest lows (~1711)
  

 

As mentioned, I feel this makes me a better trader, and hopefully some of you can benefit from it as well. Let's see how this plan goes...

[wjrusnak 10]

Long 1720 (if it got there) or quite possibly look for a long to begin at ~1732 (more in the middle though)

 

Looks like I was right on the money with that idea. Anyway, tomorrow will allow the 1732 level to prove itself. If it doesn't hold, I would look to long at 1720 or 1710. If buyers build some momentum overnight, 1732 could set up for a great break-out trade to the short side. Adding to yesterday's levels, 1755 should definitely be noted. If trading opens toward that area, then I would look to short 1755 or even 1760.

 

[wjrusnak 10]

Getting a little messy.

 

[wjrusnak 10]

Buyers are holding ~1735 and this seems to be ranging out between 1730 and 1760-65. Looks like a lot of confusion and middle chop.

 

 

• Short 1760 and 1765
  
• Long 1730 and 1735
  
• The middle levels would have to show some overnight strength for me to take them (i.e. Long 1745)
  

[Placebo 10]

 

ES running in to resistance at 1100 ish. Will see how it reacts.

Edited February 17, 2010 by Placebo
add notes

[Placebo 10]

[Guest delldorn]

i discovered Wyckoff only recently. Hearing Wyckoff mentioned occasionally, then getting my interest piqued reading Hank Pruden's book, "The three Skills of Top Trading".

i just attended a seminar given by Todd Krueger (traderscode.com). He is the former CEO of tradeguider and a full time trader who wants to educate traders about trading, using Wyckoff.

The more i learn about Wyckoff the more sense it makes

[dla133 10]

Hi,

 

I just thought I would give an update of my trading since reading posts from the Wyckoff Forum, especially those posted by DBPhoenix and Gassah. Since trying to become a Wyckoff student I have placed 12 trades this year with 12 giving a profit. This profit has given me a 30% profit on my capital. I now feel I am looking at the market in a totaly different way with an eye on Supply, Demand, Selling and Buying waves. The biggest thing for me so far has been not to panic when the trade doesn't go the right way to start off with, as long as the action still looks right then stick with it. So I would like to say a BIG THANK YOU to all who have answered my questions with patience in this forum.

 

So why the title of this thread?

Well I am still studying Wyckoff but have wondered why other more experienced traders chose Wyckoff over Gann?

 

Kind Regards

Lee

[traderveritas 10]

I had the pleasure of taking Hank Pruden's classes at Golden Gate University. I have been a member of the Technical Security Analysts Assoc in San Francisco for a number of years and had heard Hank speak about Wyckoff in the meetings. Just sorry I didn't take his class much earlier as the Wyckoff principles really provide me with a framework for the markets and price movement that I couldn't find with any indicators, pattern strategies, etc.

[Gringo 10]

Hello,

 

Update for US Dollar here. The bottom (could be temporary) was not much off the mark. Strength in UUP is becoming apparent. I notice price getting close to resistance around 24 area and effort increasing with lesser upward price progress. It would be interesting to see what comes next. A retest, a partial drop, or no drop at all?

 

If you noticed a day or two ago Fed raised bank loans rate from 0.5-0.75. Now it's nothing significant but points to some internal tightening. The interesting part is that even not having any information and looking at only price and volume it was becoming apparent in Dec-Jan time frame that USD was not sinking anymore. None of us had to be an insider to see strengthening in USD before the loans rate news came out.

 

Note also that USD was dropping with equity markets more or less rising since Mar 09. Now USD is rising and equities are still rising. Weakening US dollar was good for exports and business (also lowered debt payments in relative terms) hence the logic dictated to buy US equities. Strengthening dollar means confidence is returning and economy is not fragile anymore so logic dictates to again buy US equities! Hmmm..what must a person do?

 

Best is to look at the chart and and price/volume behaviour and make decisions from there.

 

[GhostofLivermore 10]

Hi,

 

I just thought I would give an update of my trading since reading posts from the Wyckoff Forum, especially those posted by DBPhoenix and Gassah. Since trying to become a Wyckoff student I have placed 12 trades this year with 12 giving a profit. This profit has given me a 30% profit on my capital. I now feel I am looking at the market in a totaly different way with an eye on Supply, Demand, Selling and Buying waves. The biggest thing for me so far has been not to panic when the trade doesn't go the right way to start off with, as long as the action still looks right then stick with it. So I would like to say a BIG THANK YOU to all who have answered my questions with patience in this forum.

 

So why the title of this thread?

Well I am still studying Wyckoff but have wondered why other more experienced traders chose Wyckoff over Gann?

 

Kind Regards

Lee

 

Lee

 

Let's see if I understand you.

 

You've found something that works extremely well for you and your asking why not do something else?

 

I don't mean to be sarcastic but that's just a nutty question.

 

The problem with most people is they don't know how to be happy and most traders fail because they never really master one thing before the try and jump to the next.

[dla133 10]

Hi,

 

Thanks for your response. Please don't think I'm not happy with my progress because I am. However for me trading is a life long learning curve. I have been down the route of most traders with tips, technical analysis searching for pattern, Canslim etc. I discovered Wyckoff before I had heard about Gann and that is the reason I am a Wyckoff student. The reason I am still a Wyckoff student is because it makes sense to me and appears that this style of trading suits me as a person. I like the way it allows me to feel in control of my trades even when they go against me at first and not panic and sell out, only to see the trade reverse back into what would have been a profit.

I was hoping that somebody on this forum will have looked at both and would be helpful in giving their reasons for choosing one over the other.

 

Cheers

Lee

[Kiwi 16]

If you want sense don't look at Gann then.

 

Wyckoff is simple sense. Gann is a mix of sensible and strange. Don't mess up your mind.

[dla133 10]

Hi Kiwi,

 

Thanks for the reply. I should maybe consider myself lucky in discovering Wyckoff before Gann.

 

Kind Regards

[srag&birdie2 10]

My Mama was related to Gann - a grand niece or great cousine or some such thing like that. I don't know, exactly. Anyway, she was certifiable, my Mama. A great soul, but I mean really nutz. I love her of course, but Geeze-uz. The stuff we went through my sisters and brothers and me. I had the craziest childhod - you don't want to know. That was enough fo me to know Gann was off limits once I was old enough to know better.

[dandxg 10]

I will take it this still a serious discussion that I have been thinking a lot about lately. I came into trading being told that Gann was nonsense, it didn't work, all that from people like Alexander Elder and his kid. I spend a good deal of time learning VSA and Wyckoff. I am changing my attitude on Gann having spoke to people that use his methods and trying some of the more elementary stuff myself. Stuff like Murrey Math which work pretty well used in conjunction with Wyckoff. If you step back from the mystique and look at the earlier workings of Gann its all based on geometry. Pyrapoint looks promising but I can only bite off so much. The astro stuff I haven't delved into much.

 

What it comes down to is do you believe you can predict cycles. Some astro ppl are calling for a big move on March 10, Mars Direct, most of the say up. A software from the Foundation For the Study of Cycles predicts an up move about March 12th. Will be interesting to see.

 

P.S if I didn't spell it out clearly, cuz Im tired, is the compliment each other. Use volume to determine if a Gann angle will turn there. The funny thing is Gann viewed time the most important, price second, and last volume so a bit of a direct conflict there but I use them together.

Edited March 3, 2010 by dandxg

[BlowFish 10]

Whatever you think about the more esoteric Gann stuff he preached pretty robust money management ideas and wrote some pretty solid stuff on price action. You don't really need much more than that.