Trading The Wyckoff Way

[erierambler 10]

I was referring to the chart you posted.

 

One thing I learned is you take the hand you're dealt, greed gets you in trouble.

erie

[DbPhoenix 42]

It's not a matter of greed but of planning. If one doesn't know ahead of time what he's going to do, then whatever decision he makes in real time is essentially a gamble.

 

The hindsight postings are fine for what they are, but they are only marginally related to RT trading. Even if you guys are only paper-trading, you need to conduct yourselves as though you were trading for real.

[erierambler 10]

It's not a matter of greed but of planning. If one doesn't know ahead of time what he's going to do, then whatever decision he makes in real time is essentially a gamble.

 

The hindsight postings are fine for what they are, but they are only marginally related to RT trading. Even if you guys are only paper-trading, you need to conduct yourselves as though you were trading for real.

 

Well I can't speak for FW, but i'm trading , not much mind you , just one trade a day when I am confident in s/r , otherwise one doesn't hear a peep out of me .

erie

Edited June 19, 2008 by erierambler
forgot a word

[firewalker 10]

One thing I learned is you take the hand you're dealt, greed gets you in trouble.

erie

 

Actually, the majority of my trades seem to mirror a "lack of greed", if you want to put it that way. I'm still adjusting and tweaking my strategy as I go along, but today for instance I had sufficient reason to take some off at 1342. Resistance for me was - like you in the chart you posted - around 1349.

 

Holding on for 4 hours might not be 'difficult' strategywise, but it requires a patient mindset, something that I lack from time to time... (but I'll stop now too, as this stuff is more appropriate for my blog).

[DbPhoenix 42]

I am, no surprise, a proponent of blogs. They play an important part in one's development. But only a part. If either or both of you want to take this to the next level, I suggest you take advantage of the chat room facilities here. Doing so will enable you to maintain the discipline required to follow price as it moves from S to R and back again and focus on how it behaves as it approaches each. You won't then be relying on what "feels right" or "seems best". Posting to the boards can wait until the end of the day, or until you've wrapped it up for the day.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Well I can't speak for FW, but i'm trading , not much mind you , just one trade a day when I am confident in s/r , otherwise one doesn't hear a peep out of me .

erie

 

One trade a day is too much pressure. If you miss the trade, then you are too likely to be thinking of the trade you missed rather than focusing on what price is doing. And if you make only one trade a day, there won't be any need for you to focus on what price is doing if you miss the trade because you consider yourself done.

[erierambler 10]

One trade a day is too much pressure. If you miss the trade, then you are too likely to be thinking of the trade you missed rather than focusing on what price is doing. And if you make only one trade a day, there won't be any need for you to focus on what price is doing if you miss the trade because you consider yourself done.

 

 

Not sure what you mean. I have no pressure at all. When I post s/r for the day,(on the daily) when price hits one of these and the set up is confirmed, I take it.(it's a high probability trade ) I don't trade the rest of the day because after that trade I haven't the confidence of what I see yet.( and I'm not going to give any back) If I don't post s/r (daily)it's because I'm not sure of it so I don't trade at all, just watch and try to learn more. If by chance I do miss it , it doesn't bother me, for I'm in no hurry to get anywhere. MF Global doesn't care if I trade or not and I don't need the income right now ( but that could change )

I like the preparation , so I'm ready , but after the trade I'm not ready , if that makes any sense.

[erierambler 10]

Posting to the boards can wait until the end of the day, or until you've wrapped it up for the day.

 

That's not a problem..........

erie

Edited June 19, 2008 by erierambler
spelling

[DbPhoenix 42]

Not sure what you mean. I have no pressure at all. When I post s/r for the day,(on the daily) when price hits one of these and the set up is confirmed, I take it.(it's a high probability trade )

 

So you took the trade at 44 +/-?

[erierambler 10]

So you took the trade at 44 +/-?

 

No , long at 1335 and my exit was at 1341. I didn't see "R" until after the rejection, only seen "S". ( I'm not that good )

erie

[DbPhoenix 42]

You didn't notice where price hit after the employment report?

[erierambler 10]

You didn't notice where price hit after the employment report?

 

I don't follow any of that except when a FOMC meeting is. It's just price , $tick and my nightly excel figures.

[firewalker 10]

One trade a day is too much pressure. If you miss the trade, then you are too likely to be thinking of the trade you missed rather than focusing on what price is doing. And if you make only one trade a day, there won't be any need for you to focus on what price is doing if you miss the trade because you consider yourself done.

 

I understand erie's point of view, and to be honest I think forcing yourself to take more trades than necessary is putting pressure on yourself. I prefer to take only one or two trades per day, per instrument. If my first trade is a profitable one, I prefer to squeeze out as much as possible out of that instead of looking for another entry. Trade management is more relaxing than concentrating on getting the entry right. I've spent too much time in the past looking to find trades all day when most of them are not worth the risk. But again, it's personal and it's not because one considers himself 'done' that he can't observe price from a neutral point of view. Observing price without thinking of an entry has helped me a lot, so after I'm done I still like to do that to acquire a better understanding.

 

I am, no surprise, a proponent of blogs. They play an important part in one's development. But only a part. If either or both of you want to take this to the next level, I suggest you take advantage of the chat room facilities here. Doing so will enable you to maintain the discipline required to follow price as it moves from S to R and back again and focus on how it behaves as it approaches each. You won't then be relying on what "feels right" or "seems best". Posting to the boards can wait until the end of the day, or until you've wrapped it up for the day.

 

Not sure what you mean by "the next level". I've been in some chatrooms and Skype trading rooms, but most of the time I found them to divert my concentration from what I should be looking at. I've also been in the one here several times and -from what I've seen- Jwhite is doing a very nice, and interesting job in analyzing price behaviour real time. But at the same time it can be distracting if you're seeing or looking at something else and you are focusing on your chart or your instrument while the other guys are talking about something which is (or can be) totally unrelated to what you're doing... I might give the chatroom another shot, the lock-ups I was experiencing might have been resolved by now.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I understand erie's point of view, and to be honest I think forcing yourself to take more trades than necessary is putting pressure on yourself. I prefer to take only one or two trades per day, per instrument. If my first trade is a profitable one, I prefer to squeeze out as much as possible out of that instead of looking for another entry. Trade management is more relaxing than concentrating on getting the entry right. I've spent too much time in the past looking to find trades all day when most of them are not worth the risk. But again, it's personal and it's not because one considers himself 'done' that he can't observe price from a neutral point of view. Observing price without thinking of an entry has helped me a lot, so after I'm done I still like to do that to acquire a better understanding.

 

I wish you wouldn't put words in my mouth, FW. I never said that one should take more trades than necessary. Nor did I say that one should spend all day "looking to find trades". And as for getting the entry right, if one doesn't do so, then there won't be a trade to manage.

 

There were five good shorts off resistance in the ES yesterday, none of which apparently were taken. Trading partners can help one see these if for some reason he doesn't see them himself. If one chooses to go it alone, that's fine. But hindsight charts can take one only so far, and RT trading can't be learned by following message boards.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Not sure what you mean by "the next level". I've been in some chatrooms and Skype trading rooms, but most of the time I found them to divert my concentration from what I should be looking at. I've also been in the one here several times and -from what I've seen- Jwhite is doing a very nice, and interesting job in analyzing price behaviour real time. But at the same time it can be distracting if you're seeing or looking at something else and you are focusing on your chart or your instrument while the other guys are talking about something which is (or can be) totally unrelated to what you're doing... I might give the chatroom another shot, the lock-ups I was experiencing might have been resolved by now.

 

The experience is generally more beneficial if one invites like-minded traders to join him in either an existing room or a new one. Thus everyone has more or less the same focus. This beats here are all the signals you should have seen and all the trades you could have taken.

[DbPhoenix 42]

The following chart was posted last Sunday:

 

 

Let's see how it all worked out (same chart but drawn with Sierra):

 

 

Monday and Tuesday, price tested R ©. Thursday it bounced off the midpoint of the lower trading range (D) and tested R © again. Friday it dropped to S (E).

 

The advantage being, again, that all of this can be plotted in advance, saving one from having to peer fixedly at his screen for however long looking for a particular type of bar.

 

For the coming week, the setup's the same, keeping in mind that the interface between the two ranges, at 1960, may take on added importance.

Edited June 21, 2008 by DbPhoenix

[Tannism 10]

Just an update on how it is going with the du Plessis log charts. Here is my latest look at PENN. (can't look back far enough intraday with stockcharts using User Defined).

 

On the line chart, the region is extended to the left in the 52ish area. The stop-look-see from the new area is calculated at 25 for now.

[DbPhoenix 42]

 

For the coming week, the setup's the same, keeping in mind that the interface between the two ranges, at 1960, may take on added importance.

 

And as it turned out.....

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

And back to the macro:

 

[firewalker 10]

How long does S/R last? If S/R are representative levels from the past where important action took place, so that traders act again on those levels at a later time, how far back does the memory of traders go?

 

First a 4 hour chart from the DOW from about two years ago.

 

 

Next, a 15-min chart of the last two days of the DOW e-mini:

 

[Phil Mibbutz 10]

I tend to think that markets, like elephants, never forget.

[Bearbull 10]

FW,

Traders make up the market, and those who trade on longer time frame obviously watch and monitor these levels. If you have learnt to identify these levels and observe price reactions at these prices, then surely that should enhance your trading, as to how long the influence will last into the future, well that I doubt if anybody can provide a definitive answer.

[cowseathay 10]

Hi,

 

I am a novice to Wyckoff and am trying to learn and apply his principles.

 

Often I have trouble telling a retracement from a reversal and I want to post a chart of the Euro from today to illustrate my problem.

 

I'm posting the one minute chart and also the five minute chart for context. Around 12:20 price started breaking out of resistance with great volume and pace. Around 12:23 the price and volume action was indicating (to me) a potential buying climax (the volume peaked). Another clue was that price stopped at a well established resistance from earlier in the day and from last week. Then it began retracing and after a few bars the first up bar came about with what seemed to me like good buying pressure (for one, the volume was higher than the prior down bars). However price turned around and started going lower and you can see what happened. But it never went back up to test the high that was just made, and instead just kept going slowly lower. There was even a large volume bar around 13:00 in which the price went higher which I thought could be the buying pressure coming back in but then price kind of died out and started grinding lower and lower.

 

I'm just wondering, were there any clues that that there was not going to be a complete retracement and that price is instead reversing? Or am I just thinking too deeply into it and should just accept that the trade didn't work?

 

Any help is greatly appreciated.

 

Thank you,

CowsEatHay

[cowseathay 10]

Just for further context, I'm also posting another chart of the euro of a much larger timeframe for a bigger picture view.

 

Thanks,

CowsEatHay

[Bearbull 10]

Just for further context, I'm also posting another chart of the euro of a much larger timeframe for a bigger picture view.

 

Thanks,

CowsEatHay

 

You have already drawn trendlines on the 1min chart, if you were long, your exit would be either the break of TL or break of previous swing low, refer to Dbphoenix forum and blog for further info. on how to apply Wyckoff principles in this regard.