Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

  DbPhoenix said:
Hello, sulong. Yes, materials and energy have been doing well, and that would be the place to look for longs when we turn.

 

 

I hope you don't mind me picking up this post from earlier in this thread. But why materials and energy? I probably don't know enough about fundamentals...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  zeon said:
I agree this sounds all very simple. But most books I read consider scaling out as a less profitable strategy in the long run. This strategy also assumes that you only take one trade a day and try and maximize it's potential. Which I fine I suppose as far as it goes. In trending days, this will keep you in the market with at least a small part of your position till the end. But in ranging days it might mean several stop outs at break-even. Perhaps it's just not possible to find a 'one size fits all' exit strategy.

 

On the whole that will be true, running analytics will show one exit strategy to be more effective from a pure profit point of view. However there are a couple of advantages to scaling out. Firstly psychological - a lot of people find it easier to manage a trade once it is 'paid for' by taking some of the position off (i.e. they can no longer lose). Secondly it will result in a smoother equity curve.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  zeon said:
I agree this sounds all very simple. But most books I read consider scaling out as a less profitable strategy in the long run. This strategy also assumes that you only take one trade a day and try and maximize it's potential. Which I fine I suppose as far as it goes. In trending days, this will keep you in the market with at least a small part of your position till the end. But in ranging days it might mean several stop outs at break-even. Perhaps it's just not possible to find a 'one size fits all' exit strategy.
I know this is a little off topic so I will keep it short.

 

I believe that many of those who scale out do it incorrectly. The market is extremely dynamic so you must be as well. In order to know where to scale out you must understand the time frames, S/R, Supply/Demand, etc that are around you. By knowing and understanding these areas you can estimate rough probabilities of them getting hit during certain situations. This will allow you to keep more on for trending days and take most off during consolidation days. I believe that the concept itself is somewhat "one size fits all" but how you measure these levels and create probabilities can vary dramatically.

 

Of course this is a more advanced way of thinking and takes lots of studying and screen time. This is why you find many newer traders taking a large portion off quickly at a fixed amount and then trailing a smaller portion looking for the larger trend. It's kind of a quick fix to the problem.

I also agree with what BlowFish said. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

W stated:

 

"After you have bought, you sit through a number of small, medium and good-sized waves, until finally you observe that it is about flood tide in that stock. Then watch for an especially strong up-wave and give your broker an order to sell your stokc at the market.

 

The waves of the market furnish a clear insight into changes in supply and demand. By learning to judge all sizes of market waves, you will gradually learn to spot the time when a rising market or a rally, and the time when a declining market or a reaction, has halted and is about to reverse. These are the turning points."

 

When I read Barros' book and he mentioned that he calculated the percent moves of waves and used standard deviations to help determine when it was "flood tide" I recalled the above quotation.

 

The attached shows the weekly chart of EURUSD hitting the top of a channel. The AB wave happens to be far above the average wave for the past ten years. I have an Excel program that'll quickly measure these. AB is well beyond the the 3rd standard deviation at 37% and is at high risk of reversing. I mention all this because it's having trouble on the daily.

5aa70e5aad683_EURUSDWave.thumb.png.fbe89e8773f9f42d6ae50547c0adf564.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I haven't read the book, but I do look at standard deviations. Allowing for stockcharts, does this illustrate the point?

 

The envelope is 3 standard deviations using 20 periods.

 

If this illustrates the point, I'll post one using % moves, standard deviation and PnF.

eurodollar.png.c7ee87c79314dc3cfe450e78c73074e3.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Speaking of broader markets, only three out of nine sectors continue to hold above their "breakout" points: energy, technology, and utilities. Anyone trading the NQ should keep this in mind.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I posted this a week or so ago. Bigger timeframe and all.

 

  zeon said:
Within the context of Tuesday's selling climax and re-test, I thought it might be interesting to discuss 'the big picture'. Mainly, because I seem to recognize the same concepts and as they apply on each timeframe,...

 

From what I can see:

(a) is a selling climax on huge volume, and demand overcomes supply because if you blend the bars, it's a hammer-like formation and price closes well off the lows

(b) a break of the demandline

© a higher low

(d) a re-test of the low, and on lower volume

(e) a shake-out and in effect another test, on higher volume but price closes off the lows

(f) a higher high

(g) and a higher low => confirmation of new uptrend

(h) a new (cyan) demand line can be drawn

 

Forget for a minute that everybody is saying that this is a bear trend and just look at the chart. Or for the sake of the exercise suppose that this is a intraday chart instead of a daily one, doesn't this validate taking a long position? What elements have I interpreted incorrectly?

 

Doesn't it look like we had a double bottom confirmed now?

I mean, this week the NQ broke much higher, the ES is back to 1400 and the DOW almost to 13000...

es.GIF.66dd48933af907f249f3aa92c83262e3.GIF

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  DbPhoenix said:
Speaking of broader markets, only three out of nine sectors continue to hold above their "breakout" points: energy, technology, and utilities. Anyone trading the NQ should keep this in mind.

 

I know, that you posted somewhere the sector charts you track, but I couldn't find them. Are they similar to Amex Select Sector SPDR's from Stockcharts? Thanks

 

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=msummary&cmd=show,iday[Y]&disp=SXA

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=6180&stc=1&d=1209063054

Sector_list.png.85ed8174dcba9af2a897714f989f2fa1.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  DbPhoenix said:
I had trouble finding them myself: here

 

 

I'm less interested in what's up or down at any given time than I am in whether or not each is still range-bound.

 

 

Thanks Db. I was interested, because you said, that only three out of nine hold above the breakout. I will have a look on them tomorrow.

 

The link seems not to work correctly, its post 256

:)

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/104/ym-es-and-djia-analysis-2275-6.html#post33679

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  habi said:
Thanks Db. I was interested, because you said, that only three out of nine hold above the breakout. I will have a look on them tomorrow.

 

The link seems not to work correctly, its post 256

:)

 

Works for me. (?)

 

These are the three I was referring to. I won't update them in toto until there's some important change.

Image1.gif.871db7846159346d95ee465edfad2bc5.gif

Image2.gif.40901ecb9d26e8dd13212188dd10b7c7.gif

Image3.gif.c5ea0dd0f78326927d35cd0b460c53cf.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  Tannism said:
Allowing for stockcharts, does this illustrate the point?

 

The envelope is 3 standard deviations using 20 periods.

 

It looks different because it's following the bar movements and not the waves.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While this may not be Wyckoff, it is Wyckoffian: raw breadth data without anyone having screwed around with it.

 

The decline in the volume of advancers as compared to the previous highs in the Nasdaq does not portend collapse, but it does bear watching.

 

The decline in the number of new highs, however, does suggest that the market is being driven higher by large-cap stocks, and the advance may not be a broad one.

 

The story's pretty much the same with the NYSE.

Image3.gif.df16862db325b578a6f6713ebe595e04.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  DbPhoenix said:
While this may not be Wyckoff, it is Wyckoffian: raw breadth data without anyone having screwed around with it.

 

In one of W's books he does mention taking into account breadth data. I can dig it up if somebody wants proof.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  DbPhoenix said:

.... market is being driven higher by large-cap stocks

 

A view of NZ 100 showing large caps significance. Market cap weighted index is higher than equal weighted.

EqualWeighted.png.13d6245c4c27920ea63fb7bf88d859dc.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How are we to know in advance why and to what extent someone else is prompted to buy or sell? We cannot know; it is impossible for us to foretell what actuates all of those whose orders are poured into the vast intake of the Stock Exchange machinery during the day's session.

 

But if we study the action of prices; the responses; the speed of the ticker, indicating urgency or the contrary; the intensity of the buying or selling, as indicated by the volumes; and the intervals when the volume is heavy or light -- all these in relation to each other -- then we gain insight or the design and the purposes of those who are dominant in the market situation for the time being.

 

All the varying phases of stock market technique may thus be studied and interpreted from the buying and selling waves as they appear on the tape. From these we form a conclusion as to the balance of the probabilities. On this we base our commitments.

 

Richard Wyckoff

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Been reading some of Wyckoff's articles...

 

I came across this, but I'm not quite sure how to interpret this. I didn't think Wyckoff had targets are made predictions as to how far a move could stretch or where his exits might be. I couldn't find any references to 'projecting' targets in this thread nor in the excellent PDF files dbphoenix provided.

 

Judging distance

Another important adjunct in stock trading, known by very few people, is how to judge the number of points the averages or any group of stocks or any individual stock should move in a certain direction, subject to continual confirmation, correction of perhaps contradiction, as indicated by market action.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  zeon said:
I didn't think Wyckoff had targets are made predictions as to how far a move could stretch or where his exits might be. I couldn't find any references to 'projecting' targets in this thread nor in the excellent PDF files dbphoenix provided.

[/i]

 

He used point and figure charts to project. I'll quote some this weekend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  gassah said:
He used point and figure charts to project. I'll quote some this weekend.

 

Good idea. I wonder why nobody who's trading is based on the principles laid out by Wyckoff is using these 'projection methods'. Although I don't find much references to it further in the book I'm reading, it still surprised me because I think he didn't do much "predicting". But if your projection targets than I guess that's exactly what you're doing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By vishnux
      Hey guys , what are the main things you look for to detect if the consolidation area is accumulating or distributing ? 
      1 ) I see springs in top , still markup happens and it becomes accumulation area and vice versa
      2) There is lots of volume absorption in support line and still markdown occurs.
      3) sometimes in market high / low it becomes re-accumulation  / re-distribution
      Is there any clear way to find it ? 
    • By millonmethod
      Hello everyone!
      I am an advanced trader, with many years of experience (about 15 years - 10 living exclusively from this)
      I am going to give you some tips that you must know:
      There are going to be many people who tell you that trade is easy, that with only crossiing a line  with another one you will win a lot of money.... and that´s not true.  No, Sir, reality is far away from that. Many people who start arrive here with the hope that someone "gives them" a free method, they watch youtube videos thinking that this will give them the "strategy" and in a few days they realize that it does not work for them - they lose money - and then They go looking for a new one ... and so on. YES, IT´S TRUE YOU EARN IN TRADING, A LOT. BUT THINK: for a few to win (10% + any BROKER) many others must lose (90% people). YOU MUST HAVE A MONEY MANAGMENT FORMULA ( you can email me) People study so many years to live on this, not because they are dumb, but to know what they do, when, and have absolute effectiveness. It´s very easy to get lost here: do not disperse, jumping from one to another strategy WILL NEVER give you money, it will only waste your time and make you nervous when trading. PEOPLE WHO CHANGE THEIR METHOD CONSTANTLY : LOOOOSE ALWAYS.   If you have the knowledge to develop it, take your time and do it.  Always try it first on DEMO for at least 2 weeks! If not: search to buy a solid strategy (no you tube videos pleassse ! Avoid losing money! ) This is like any business, it requires some capital to start (capital = money in the broker + solid made /purchased strategy) If you are lost: I RECOMMEND YOU NOT TO WASTE TIME IN YOUTUBE, JOIN PEOPLE WHO HAVE EXPERIENCE AND IF YOU ARE GOING TO BUY A METHOD ... PLEASE !!!! DO NOT BUY 10 BAD AND CHEAP METHODS, SAVE MONEY AND BUY ONLY 1 BUT EXCLUSIVE AND MUST ALLWAYS HAVE SUPPORT !!!!!  Do not buy Signals! They never keep up with constant profits! One week will win and the next will lose. Nothing that does not depend absolutely on you will give you the money you are looking for. And if you do not have a strategy (made or purchased) do not even try PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE: DO NOT USE REAL MONEY! AT LEAST 2 WEEK DEMO FREE HELP HERE!!!!!  IF YOU FOLLOW MY ADVICE YOU WILL BE PART OF THAT 10% WINNER, email me.
      Have a nice trading day
       
       
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Thx for reminding us... I don't bang that drum often enough anymore Another part for consideration is who that money initially went to...
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • How long does it take to receive HFM's withdrawal via Skrill? less than 24H?
    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.