Trading The Wyckoff Way

[DbPhoenix 42]

Stopped soon after 1100.

 

I ought to call this the anti-:shocked: method.

 

Good job, buyers!

[DbPhoenix 42]

................

L.o.l.r.?

Edited May 3, 2013 by DbPhoenix

[Niko 10]

  DbPhoenix said:

................

L.o.l.r?

 

Looks like a correction is due on the daily, but there is still plenty of room to go in the weekly.

 

Here is a question, if it goes into overbought territory on the daily and finds R around the previous top, can one trace a new LOLR as soon as a LH is defined or is it necesary that the DL of the TC gets broken ?

Edited April 11, 2013 by Niko

[DbPhoenix 42]

  Niko said:

Looks like a correction is due on the daily, but there is still plenty of room to go in the weekly.

 

Here is a question, if it goes into overbought territory on the daily and finds R around the previous top, can one trace a new LOLR as soon as a LH is defined or is it necesary that the DL of the TC gets broken ?

 

They're both weeklies, the first the NQ and the second the ES. Looking only at the NQ and how this is the first time price has closed above the midpoint of the channel in quite some time, I'd've said there's a chance of moving all the way to the top of the channel. However, since the ES is now at the top of its channel, they may both reverse and make the return trips to the DLs. And a lot of people have been looking for a correction anyway.

 

It may be an interesting day.

[Niko 10]

  DbPhoenix said:

They're both weeklies, the first the NQ and the second the ES. Looking only at the NQ and how this is the first time price has closed above the midpoint of the channel in quite some time, I'd've said there's a chance of moving all the way to the top of the channel. However, since the ES is now at the top of its channel, they may both reverse and make the return trips to the DLs. And a lot of people have been looking for a correction anyway.

 

It may be an interesting day.

 

:doh: did not read the labels, and assumed they were the same thing in two different intervals.

 

But in general, after reaching the top of the channel and even after getting into overbought territories there is that gray area I still don't have very clear and it is where the new trends are born. If there is a LH but price is at or above the channel, I am still in an Uptrend, but that could be the beginning of a new profitable downtrend. Guess as everything else, it comes down to research, will add that into my to do list and find out.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Overbought and oversold conditions are always tricky because on the one hand you've got mean reversion to consider and on the other you have potential trend change. However, given the extent and duration of the trend in the ES, mean reversion may be the more likely outcome. And of course there's no need to rush into any trades. One can simply wait a few days to see how things go.

 

And, no, Wyckoff doesn't say anything about mean reversion, but that's what balancing and a return to the middle and equilibrium are all about. There's nothing mysterious about it; it's just a standoff between buyers and sellers. This accounts for the uncanny parallelism in these trend channels. And the general misconception that TC lines provide "support and resistance".

[DbPhoenix 42]

A LH premkt and nothing much to stop it from heading all the way back to 10. Top of the TC is around 36.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I don't suppose it should come as a big surprise that this morning would be so boring after yesterday. But considering where we ended up, I expected more. And I was ready to quit at 1100. Then buyers finally got it together. Then price ricocheted off R. Now I'm stuck here until we turn trendless.

 

*sigh*

[Niko 10]

Hey! What happened with the capt america cartman combo?

[DbPhoenix 42]

  Niko said:

Hey! What happened with the capt america cartman combo?

 

The forces of darkness have retreated.

[DbPhoenix 42]

As I said above, I would not have expected this morning to be quite so boring. But trading began to come alive with the exit from the hinge (below).

 

For the daily context, see yesterday's chart post. For the premkt, see chart 1.

 

Chart 2 shows the opening gambits without the hinge so that the entries and exits can be more clearly seen. Since there were no RETs to speak of, I elected to enter off S/R reversals, as long as there was S/R to use. The hinge then formed, which is an overlay on Chart 3, which is otherwise identical to Chart 2.

 

The last, of course, is the entire session, at least until I quit due to the volume dryup and the sideways trendlessness.

 

Gee, it would be so much easier if S&R "worked".

[DbPhoenix 42]

...........................

[DbPhoenix 42]

Just out of curiosity, has anybody calculated a ballpark win rate and profit percentage (assuming one contract) for the charts I've been posting the last couple of weeks?

 

If anybody wants to play with it, remember that entries are stop limit and exits are market.

Edited April 12, 2013 by DbPhoenix

[Seeker 11]

  DbPhoenix said:

Just out of curiosity, has anybody calculated a ballpark win rate and profit percentage (assuming one contract) for the charts I've been posting the last couple of weeks?

 

If anybody wants to play with it, remember that entries are stop limit and exits are market.

 

I probably haven't seen all the charts, and occasionally an exit is not clear, but ball park 80%+

[DbPhoenix 42]

Three losing trades in a row is not the best way to start the day, but it happens. First off R, second LH, third DT. Fourth attempt was fine.

[tupapa 10]

  DbPhoenix said:

As I said above, I would not have expected this morning to be quite so boring. But trading began to come alive with the exit from the hinge (below).

 

For the daily context, see yesterday's chart post. For the premkt, see chart 1.

 

Chart 2 shows the opening gambits without the hinge so that the entries and exits can be more clearly seen. Since there were no RETs to speak of, I elected to enter off S/R reversals, as long as there was S/R to use. The hinge then formed, which is an overlay on Chart 3, which is otherwise identical to Chart 2.

 

The last, of course, is the entire session, at least until I quit due to the volume dryup and the sideways trendlessness.

 

Gee, it would be so much easier if S&R "worked".

 

Three questions from yesterdays trading:

 

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

1. Break of the DL (not drawn) and FTB.

 

2. Rejection of R

 

3. Congestion

[tupapa 10]

  DbPhoenix said:

1. Break of the DL (not drawn) and FTB.

 

2. Rejection of R

 

3. Congestion

 

1- So you take this setup regardless of where it takes place, not necessarily at S/R?

 

2- How do you define Rejection?

[tupapa 10]

And today,

 

Aren't 1 and 2 your usual procedure?

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

  tupapa said:

1- So you take this setup regardless of where it takes place, not necessarily at S/R?

 

2- How do you define Rejection?

 

1. Does it matter?

 

2. Hits R and reverses.

[DbPhoenix 42]

  tupapa said:

And today,

 

Aren't 1 and 2 your usual procedure?

 

 

Activity slowed down dramatically at that point, and price drifted sideways for 15 minutes. This was not an energetic bounce off S of any kind other than 50% of the previous day's rally, which is always soft.

 

And it was after 1100. I was bored.

[tupapa 10]

  DbPhoenix said:

1. Does it matter?

 

2. Hits R and reverses.

 

1- I would say so, given the emphasis throughout the forum on trading only at Support and Resistance.

 

2- This seems so subjective, I cant see why sometimes you enter on the first drop at Resistance but others you wait for a LH. Then again, I haven't been looking at this for years...

[Seeker 11]

  DbPhoenix said:

1. Break of the DL (not drawn) and FTB.

 

2. Rejection of R

 

3. Congestion

 

From when is the congestion visible?

[DbPhoenix 42]

  tupapa said:

1- I would say so, given the emphasis throughout the forum on trading only at Support and Resistance.

 

2- This seems so subjective, I cant see why sometimes you enter on the first drop at Resistance but others you wait for a LH. Then again, I haven't been looking at this for years...

 

You just answered your own question. I've defined all this for myself. It's up to each trader to define it for himself. That's what makes it subjective. And why decisions made in real time aren't always as pretty as they are in the brochure. And why one must backtest all this, then forwardtest it in real time or via replay.

[DbPhoenix 42]

  Seeker said:

From when is the congestion visible?

 

The first FTB 2834, confirmed by the FTB 2831.