Trading The Wyckoff Way

[Niko 10]

There is something wrong with NT daily charts, if anyone had the same problem and knows how to fix it please share. The problem I have is that i do not get the full session information when I select daily, I guess it just lets me see the 9:30 to 4:00 info.

 

NQ:

 

 

After yesterday´s strong reversal at the opening, prices are back in the small TR they were last week. It is interesting in HS to note that prices not only bounced at the MP of the last rally but also at the bottom of the TC and at the bottom of the Sep-Nov TR. This tells me that I have to take this sort of stuff into consideration when daytrading.:doh:

 

As for things to do, if one is not in already, and by in i mean long. I would wait for a break above the Sep Oct TR MP around 2813 in order to establish a long.

 

No shorts for now.

 

CL:

 

 

Just when I thought we were going back inside the TC, BAM! a reversal fueled a strong rally yest morning, no we are out of the TC and rising above the MP of the Sep-Oct TR. We are still below the MP of the last downswing, so we must me carefull as we could find R around 94. If that is surpassed then the way to go could be to take a long in a pullback to the bottom of the TC.

 

No shorts for now.

 

GC

 

 

Short term, we are still in the uptrending TC of the last REV that started some weeks ago, after the BO from the base and the subsequent RET, buyers have been trying to make new highs, but they lost momentum at the top of the TR. We are still below the MP of the last downswing, and this rally could go belly up in any moment. Perhaps we are experiencing a small pullback, in which case a new long at the bottom of the TC could be advisable if it holds at the test, if the TC holds then buyers could try to get to the top of the TR from May-Jun around 1630. Anyway, does not look as an easy ride as we are fighting against the longer term downtrend.

[Niko 10]

 

Yesterday we finally broke above the SL and today the RET bounced on S at the Top of the TR where it was expected. Now we are nearing the PDH and back in the TC so the odds favor a long. Perhaps a break above PDH could invite a following to this up move, now it is importan to note that PDH is also the MP of the last downswing, and that means we are at an area of strong potential R, if taken out then we would get a nice upside potential towards the top of the TC.

 

It is also interesting to note that last time prices traveled through these lands, there was a strong sell off and not much congestion, this could happen again to the upside, lets wait an see.

 

• As for things to do, buy a RET after the break of PDH.
   
  
• Sell a BO failure of PDH.
  

 

Beware of the chop, after a strong trend day as yest one could expect such a thing to happen.

 

P.S. Today is rollover day, so the precise levels will change, although the overall analysis stays the same.

Edited March 19, 2013 by Niko

[Niko 10]

 

After yest strong rally we are back within the TR, buyers actually found R at the MP of the TR, and after sellers managed to push for a LH, buyers defended S at the bottom so we are essentially in a choppy predicament as of now, a long at the bottom of the TR would have been the thing to do, if prices make it there and buyers hold, then take a long but i do not think that is going to happen .

 

If buyers break above the MP I will do nothing, as I do not like the activity around the MPs, If prices reach R at the top short a REV of buy a RET after the BO.

 

P.S, I am using CFD data as Ninja charts are broken today...:crap:

Edited March 19, 2013 by Niko

[Seeker 11]

There is something wrong with NT daily charts, if anyone had the same problem and knows how to fix it please share. The problem I have is that i do not get the full session information when I select daily, I guess it just lets me see the 9:30 to 4:00 info.

 

 

Do you get the correct data if you look at a 1440 minute chart?

[Niko 10]

Do you get the correct data if you look at a 1440 minute chart?

 

Will look into that. Thanks.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Reading chat transcripts has to be one of the most boring activities on the planet. But for those who were there this morning, I want to elaborate on something I said there because one must wonder how on earth that short could have been missed. What W would or would not have done is one thing. But what one can tolerate in trading can be something else entirely. But that's the difference between hindsight and real time.

 

Here, if one backs off a bit, he can see the TR that was created before the gap. When price recovered, it not only filled the gap but drove right past it.

 

This morning, price went past that midpoint all the way to 2800. As I said in chat, if price had hit that MP and reversed, I would have taken the short, gap or no gap. But price went past the MP and returned to settle in there, and in my experience the odds of price having a significant move after launching itself off an MP rather than reversing off it are not great. So I let it go.

 

As for supports, I never would have expected price to fill the gap again from the opposite side, but that's where we are as of 1310. Quite frankly, I have no idea what traders are thinking, so I'll wait until they tell me by the trades they make. Somebody else with a different risk profile would very likely play this very differently. After such good days Friday and yesterday, I'm not exactly beating myself up over it.

[Niko 10]

Db, thanks for the REVs at MPs insight I was discarding them in full.

 

You are right, i just need to get me one of these:

 

 

 

So I CSW done this:

 

 

:haha: Have fun.

[DbPhoenix 42]

So I CSW done this:

 

While I'm no fan of hindsight analysis per se, I do think it's important to distance oneself from the trade and think about what W would have done. The best move took place after my trading session ended, but it's worth noting that the reversal did not just come out of nowhere but occurred at the level of the opening low, at 2791.

 

Would W have taken it? We'll never know. But I'd like to think so. He was certainly more attuned to the market than I'll ever be.

[DbPhoenix 42]

So it made it all the way to the bottom of the TC.

 

Son of a gun.

 

Clearly the trend channel trumps the gap.

[DbPhoenix 42]

And we close in the middle of the TC. Doncha love it?

[DbPhoenix 42]

TO ALL THE GUESTS WHO ARE VIEWING THIS THREAD:

 

You can't ask questions if you don't register

[DbPhoenix 42]

About news.

 

Clearly today was news-driven, which can be fun if you have the right attitude. Most note-worthy is that no matter what the news was, price still respected the S&R that we've been watching, particularly the trend channel.

 

But what I find even more interesting is that the news services weren't quite as alert as one might expect in interpreting the relationships between the announcements and price movements. Price may have fallen because of the Cypriot rejection of the bailout terms, but it rallied almost to the minute after the ECB's announcement that it was going to bail them out anyway, in so many words.

[DbPhoenix 42]

A quick and dirty chart, since price may reach the top of the TC before the open:

[Niko 10]

CL:

 

 

After yesterday´s selloff prices found S at the bottom of the TR and bounced off the DL. Now we are at yest MP as buyers are trying to push towards the top of the TR.

 

• If the MP provides R then a short at a REV could be the way to go.
  
• If prices rise above the MP wait for a REV at the top or a BO.
  
• If prices fall towards the bottom an I am in a short from the MP hold the position if there is not a > 50% pullback from the MP.
  
• If the bottom of the TR or PDL provide strong S then buy the test.
  

 

NQ

 

 

After finding S at the bottom of the TC and the top of a previous TR (see Db´s post), buyers pushed hard, and now are around the MP of the nearest TR pushing up towards the top around 810.

 

• If the uptrend holds and 8010 is taken out then a long after a RET is the way to go.
  
• If the top provides R then short a test.
  

[tupapa 10]

A quick and dirty chart, since price may reach the top of the TC before the open:

 

I don't think I would wait for the top of the TC for the short though, I am focusing more on a rejection of the 06/07 resistance.

[Guest Muir]

Live

[09:05 PM] Muir : fill 1426 7/8

[09:04 PM] Muir : target 1447

[09:04 PM] Muir : long /YK x3 stp 1421.25

 

picture perfect springboard Monday 00:00 to today 13:00

 

you can see it in /ZS also

1428 as I type

[Guest Muir]

live 9:21

1432.25

 

up 5 3/8

 

x3 contracts

[Guest Muir]

might take contract off at 1435 not sure expect resistance at 35

[DbPhoenix 42]

Since we don't know why you're taking these trades, they might better be entered into a log along with charts so that those who are interested will understand what you're doing.

[Guest Muir]

stop raised 1428 3/4

 

there was a slight pullback were at 1431

 

4 1/8 points ahead.

 

at stop price I'm still up 2.5 points (x3 contracts)

 

patience...................

[Guest Muir]

Since we don't know why you're taking these trades, they might better be entered into a log along with charts so that those who are interested will understand what you're doing.

 

 

cant don't know how from either IB or TOS

 

but springboard is PERFECT picture perfect from 00:00 Monday to today WED 15:00

 

also this is live

 

1429.75 still live one point away from stop

[DbPhoenix 42]

cant don't know how from either IB or TOS

 

but springboard is PERFECT picture perfect from 00:00 Monday to today WED 15:00

 

also this is live

 

1429.75 still live one point away from stop

 

Yes, but no one knows what you're doing or why, so why go to all the trouble of posting?

[Guest Muir]

As I said above, Muir, since we don't know why you're taking these trades, they might better be entered into a log along with charts so that those who are interested will understand what you're doing.

 

see above. I'll find a way hindsight but thought foresight in real time (remember, I only day trade no EOD)

 

 

the stop was an arbitrary 50% entrancement

 

The "springboard" on a 10 day 20 MINUTE chart should jump out at any of your students.

It really was pretty.

 

Lastly, I waited until night time because trading ceases at 3:00 and was worried spike might be just bookkeeping (didn't think so but...)

Edited March 21, 2013 by Muir

[DbPhoenix 42]

see above. I'll find a way hindsight but thought foresight in real time (remember, I only day trade no EOD)

 

Foresight means ahead of time, not real time. If you're going to trade something, post your chart in advance and show us what you're looking at and why you think it's tradeable (see Niko, tupapa, etc). Otherwise there's really nothing for anybody to say.

 

You should also know that only one person here daytrades, so you may have no audience.

[Guest Muir]

Foresight means ahead of time, not real time. If you're going to trade something, post your chart in advance and show us what you're looking at and why you think it's tradeable (see Niko, tupapa, etc). Otherwise there's really nothing for anybody to say.

 

You should also know that only one person here daytrades, so you may have no audience.

 

Well DB, their loss if they can't be bothered to look up a symbol for soybeans (ZS, the mini is YK) and pull out a 10 day 20 minute chart and see a perfect springboard.

 

I'll be curious to see how many do?

 

If I post in hindsight, how would anybody know it's real?

 

Frankly, if an experienced trader is demonstrating in real time a trade based on Wyckoff and they can't be bothered....

 

Besides, I really haven't figured out how to save from TOS the charts.

And IBs are crappy.

 

And I knew, I'd take the trade only if it acted right after 6:00.

 

Anyways....it's at 1430.75 and this will take some time

 

stop is the same at 1428.75(for the time being)

 

target unchanged at 1447

 

wont post anymore on this trade.