Trading The Wyckoff Way

[DbPhoenix 42]

What does the 1t have to do with getting in? (see above)

[YertleTurtle 10]

I'm so confused now that you are no longer Cartman in a wizard costume.

[DbPhoenix 42]

It's become necessary to form a Justice League.

[tupapa 10]

Hard to read vol on the NQ due to contract expire. But it appears to be diminishing, in what could be hesitation hesitation among traders towards bidding for higher prices.

 

Price gives more valuable clues (in my opinion)

 

Trendline intact but buyers struggling to reach the upper limit, SL tightening.

 

2789 is the line in the sand for me, above this I am bullish. Below I consider shorts, this is a longer term view.

 

[Niko 10]

 

2789 is the line in the sand for me, above this I am bullish. Below I consider shorts, this is a longer term view.

 

 

Thanks for your comments. I have a question though, why would you short within the trend channel and above S.

[tupapa 10]

Well I wouldn't automatically short, it depends on what traders do.

 

If price falls below the 80-89 area with strenght, and then buyers attempt to push it above but struggle due to heavy supply, I consider we are back in range B, and a test of the lower limit is likely.

 

Reasons for short:

 

-Weekly DL is broken

-LH compared with the Sept. 2012 high

-Channel SL is tightening, buyers are achieving less progress to the upside, sellers are offering at lower levels.

 

 

This is just a potential scenario, so far I see nothing that would make me get short, I am simply planning. I am focusing on the NQ for shorts because it is weaker than the S&P and Dow.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Don't lose sight of the fact that you're ranging in stages within an overall uptrend. If you include the uptrend in your calculations, you'll improve your timing.

[tupapa 10]

Don't lose sight of the fact that you're ranging in stages within an overall uptrend. If you include the uptrend in your calculations, you'll improve your timing.

 

You mean the uptrend from the 2009 lows?

 

 

Isn't the tightening SL (Channel upper limit) an early sign of a potential change in trend?

 

By timing do you mean entering at the "best price" or entering when the reversal is imminent?

[Niko 10]

EOD:

 

CL

 

Prices skyrocketed today towards the top of the RC and the MP of the oct TR. If sellers manage to halt the advance around 93 then we might get a RET intraday and there we will know if we are going to go back to 91 for a test of S. If 93 is taken out, then will also be the SL and that would mean possible continuation of the up move towards the top of the channel at 95.

 

 

NQ

 

We are still within the chop, it looks like sellers are trying to push down but we are still within the TC (below the MP) and above the SL and the bottom of the TC, so short would not be an alternative for me so far. At least not until S at 759 is taken out. If that does not happen and prices find S at the bottom of the TC that could be an opportunity to reenter the trend.

 

 

GC

 

After coming back inside the TC, prices found S at a LH and finally exited the chop from previous days this morning. We are currently within the boundaries of a TR from Jun, so we will have to be careful not to get excited as we might end up in the chop . If prices manage to hold above the MP (592) then 630 would be the next target here.

 

[Gringo 10]

You mean the uptrend from the 2009 lows?

 

 

Isn't the tightening SL (Channel upper limit) an early sign of a potential change in trend?

 

 

Tupapa,

 

Could be.

 

Which way is the trend?

Which is the higher probability trade: long or short?

What's the condition of the DL?

Any S&R close at hand?

Any chance we could be in a TR?

Are you planning to anticipate a trend change or wait for price to show the trend has changed?

 

Your previous posts have shown you are capable of deciphering the clues. So give us your take.

 

Gringo

[Niko 10]

You mean the uptrend from the 2009 lows?

 

 

Isn't the tightening SL (Channel upper limit) an early sign of a potential change in trend?

 

By timing do you mean entering at the "best price" or entering when the reversal is imminent?

 

I guess he means going long at the bottom of the TC. But I could be wrong

[Trader Nick 10]

taking a lot from all this.. Too busy being a lurker here, but will eventually post some charts up of my analysis of everything i've been learning..

 

Thanks again to everybody who've allowed me to pester them and ask them questions..

[tupapa 10]

Tupapa,

 

Could be.

 

Which way is the trend?

Which is the higher probability trade: long or short?

What's the condition of the DL?

Any S&R close at hand?

Any chance we could be in a TR?

Are you planning to anticipate a trend change or wait for price to show the trend has changed?

 

Your previous posts have shown you are capable of deciphering the clues. So give us your take.

 

Gringo

 

I gave my take on the NQ some time ago

 

Not much has changed since then, a break above 2780 and another small range above this.

 

In my opinion, the higher probability trade is long unless we break below 2780, as I mentioned in my past posts. If we break below, we are back in the range and a test of the lower limit is likely.

 

What are you saying Gringo?

Do you consider initiating a position now or do you stand aside?

If any position when do you exit? Do you SAR?

If you stand aside, how do you plan on trading this?

[DbPhoenix 42]

You mean the uptrend from the 2009 lows?

 

Since November.

 

By timing do you mean entering at the "best price" or entering when the reversal is imminent?

 

Same thing.

[Guest Muir]

-

GOLD perspectives 3Y, 2Y and 9 months

 

The 3Y

 

 

2Y

 

and 9Months

 

What is it?

 

Long term trends (money flows, if that helps, or composite man, or "smart money" or what have you) into GLD versus SPX.

 

(Note: GC or $GOLD(EOD) would show the same chart with slightly altered ratio, very slight alteration due to GLD ETFs nature)

 

One can learn many things by looking at these, comparing these to previous price points action, volume, etc)

 

Here's a way to look at things differently, for the SP to have the same ratio it had versus gold in Sept 11, the SP would have to be at 938.

 

But that pretty much is meaningless, but I am interested in what was happening in FEB 2011, the last time we had this ratio.

 

For the gold bugs, the message should be simple.

 

But since I am not in the business of predicting the future, I will wholeheartedly agree with the bugs that Gold may rally.

 

I hope this helps some.

 

p.s. I posted only once in my first 3 years here.

After posting some couple of dozen in the last 2 weeks, that seems like enough for some time.

Good luck all.

 

p.s.

DB: "So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish"

Edited March 13, 2013 by Muir

[SunTrader 10]

It helps the conversation to post a Gold / Spx spread ratio chart. But that is one hell of a downtrend to have to support and reverse:

Edited March 13, 2013 by SunTrader

[tupapa 10]

It helps the conversation to post a Gold / Spx spread ratio chart:

 

I don't understand this, what does gold have to do with the SPX? If you are trading gold, why don't you just make your decision based on the current supply and demand for gold?

[SunTrader 10]

I don't understand this, what does gold have to do with the SPX? If you are trading gold, why don't you just make your decision based on the current supply and demand for gold?

I consider many factors.

[DbPhoenix 42]

It helps the conversation to post a Gold / Spx spread ratio chart. But that is one hell of a downtrend to have to support and reverse:

 

To reiterate, it is a "downtrend" only within the context of the trading range between 1800 and 1550, and may be no more difficult to support and reverse than the last two downtrends within this range.

 

This is not to say that gold won't fall out of the TR and plummet to who knows where. But that's trading.

[SunTrader 10]

To reiterate, it is a "downtrend" only within the context of the trading range ......

In the ratio (i.e. chart posted). I gave up talking trend here on price itself.

[DbPhoenix 42]

In the ratio (i.e. chart posted). I gave up talking trend here on price itself.

 

In Wyckoff, however, trend is determined by price movement.

[SunTrader 10]

In Wyckoff, however, trend is determined by price movement.

Don't know if he even considered ratio's back in the day, but that is what I was responding to (a previous post).

 

And it is plain to see the monster downtrend in the ratio. Granted price itself does not show anything near similar. But as I said I am no longer referring to price trends here.

[SunTrader 10]

But on the subject of trends:

 

"Trends can be defined in three directions and in at least three time frames. There are up trends, down trends and horizontal trends normally referred to as trading ranges. Trends can be short term in nature, intermediate term or long term. The time frames that one Wyckoff trader uses to define the three durations of trends may be different than another Wyckoff trader uses"

 

quote found here, agree or disagree?

 

Wyckoff Stock Market Institute | archives

[DbPhoenix 42]

The "monster downtrend in the ratio", however, doesn't necessarily have anything to do with trading, which is what the Wyckoff Forum is about.

[SunTrader 10]

The "monster downtrend in the ratio", however, doesn't necessarily have anything to do with trading, which is what the Wyckoff Forum is about.

My mistake but as I said, I was responding to someone else's post who obviously also doesn't know all things wyckoff too does not consider ratio's.

 

I'm obviously in the wrong topic then so see you over on "Gold Bullish or Bearish" where you have been know to drop a wychoff point or two without blowback.