Trading The Wyckoff Way

[DbPhoenix 42]

Ye, thats what I am struggling with, determining the bottom of the Range, would you say it is simply 62-72? I mentioned 142.83 in my previous post but I'm not sure about this one, it seems like this could be trading in the middle of the range, which as you've repeatedly point out, is non directional....

 

You know by now that price found S at 63. If you took it, you need to review the trade and look at how and why you took it. If you didn't, you need to look at why not.

[Gringo 10]

USO today seemed like beginning the ascent. The previous close was exceeded which triggered my buy. USO more or less appears to be behaving like the oil chart posted at the start of this thread.

 

 

I used a few April calls and the stop loss is equal to the funds put in the calls. Secondary stop in case price doesn't behave well is around 34.4 and below. I am not sure with this amount it's even worth the pain to exit. Nonetheless we'll see how this develops.

 

Gringo

[tupapa 10]

You know by now that price found S at 63. If you took it, you need to review the trade and look at how and why you took it. If you didn't, you need to look at why not.

 

Thanks for taking the time to look into this Db, first of all I wasn't at my desk, so there was no way I couldn't taken this, but even if I was, I wouldn't have gone long around 63 for the following reasons:

 

 

At 12:30 price touches 63 and there is a 3 tick upwave, I don't consider this a rejection, since there is no signifcant shift from buying to selling waves, I would need a stronger up-wave to consider it a "rejection".

 

Then price comes down again and 63 holds, then there is an upwave up to 73. This is a decent rejection, and here I would look to go long on a re-test of the lows.

 

At around 12:45 price falls to 67 and makes a HL, this could be interpreted as the test, but I wouldn't go long since my maximum risk per trade should never exceed 5 prices. In this case, assuming I entered at 68, I would need a stop at 62, which is 6 prices.

[DbPhoenix 42]

At around 12:45 price falls to 67 and makes a HL, this could be interpreted as the test, but I wouldn't go long since my maximum risk per trade should never exceed 5 prices. In this case, assuming I entered at 68, I would need a stop at 62, which is 6 prices.

 

You wouldn't need a stop at 62, you'd choose a stop at 62. You could just as easily place a stop at 66 and enter at 70.

 

Don't make the error of "thinging" price. Price is alive. Observe its behavior. And don't make the additional error of assuming it's trying to trick you.

[Niko 10]

G, now that you mention options.

 

Have you checked out the options on the CL contract?

 

Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI)

[tupapa 10]

USO today seemed like beginning the ascent. The previous close was exceeded which triggered my buy. USO more or less appears to be behaving like the oil chart posted at the start of this thread.

 

 

I used a few April calls and the stop loss is equal to the funds put in the calls. Secondary stop in case price doesn't behave well is around 34.4 and below. I am not sure with this amount it's even worth the pain to exit. Nonetheless we'll see how this develops.

 

Gringo

 

Why options instead of futures or CFDs?

[Gringo 10]

Don't have a futures or CFD option in the account I used.

 

Gringo

[tupapa 10]

This is a great way to learn how to trade by price, thanks for sharing ur foresight db.

 

Regardind this short of resistance. The next targets are the midpoint at 1520 and the TR lower limit at around 1370 right?

 

It would be great to read ur thoughts on trade management!

[tupapa 10]

This morning, das Bund has auctioned inside the current range and has given no trading opportunities.

 

For the afternoon, I am looking at:

 

At A go long on a rejection, if we break below go short on a pullback, and look for potential reversals at 142.51, 142.41, 142.24 and 142.18

 

At B go short on a rejection, if we break above go long on a pullback, and look for potential reversals at 143.19, 143.32, 143.43, 143.60

[DbPhoenix 42]

This is a great way to learn how to trade by price, thanks for sharing ur foresight db.

 

Regardind this short of resistance. The next targets are the midpoint at 1520 and the TR lower limit at around 1370 right?

 

It would be great to read ur thoughts on trade management!

 

By this time, you should already know my thoughts on trade management.

 

Nobody's shown any interest in platinum, so I haven't pursued it. But here's an updated chart:

 

 

[Niko 10]

After finding S at the bottom of the TR around 95 breaking out to the upside on the top. We are above the MP of the 96.81-98.15 TR which is bullish.

 

If buyers can hold prices above the MP they might reach the top at 98.15.

 

 

As for levels we are already above the PDH. A break above 82 will take us into territory that has not been visited in a while (gray lines)

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

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Most notable is that AAPL has filled its gap. Now we'll see.

 

.

[DbPhoenix 42]

 

Well, buyers nearly got a hernia pushing price up, but the trade triggered:

 

[tupapa 10]

A possible play on platinum, if the current rally results in a LH.

 

 

Foresight trading at its prime

[Niko 10]

We are still inside the TR between 96.81 and 98.15, the trend is up and above the MP where a hinge formed yesterday.

 

 

As for levels:

 

[Niko 10]

Chat Link:

 

Your Own Chat - Free & Easy! ? » stinto.net «

[DbPhoenix 42]

However, the supply line is broken. Therefore, the drill is to go long on the RET.

[tupapa 10]

But now the Demand Line has been broken, isn't the drill to go short at the LH, after the rejection of resistance?

 

 

 

[Gringo 10]

It's my opinion that both the long or the short are possible. The S&R are our key levels to keep and eye on. Based on whether price has a breakout or a rejection will probably determine which trading decisions is more appropriate.

 

The longer trend does appear to be up and had been taking a breather for some time forming this trading range from 1400 to 1700. Since price turned upwards from the mid point of this range instead of going all the way down to the bottom of the trading range indicates the predominance of demand over supply.

 

For a trader with a longer time horizon staying with the trend and the possibility of a breakout is something to be aware of. That being said a trader with a shorter time horizon could squeeze out some points in case the S&R around 1700 rejects and the the price tumbles.

 

I believe the probabilities favour the long side but price is the ultimate determinant of which side is going to dominate: The long side, the short side or the right side.

 

 

Gringo

Edited February 13, 2013 by Gringo

[DbPhoenix 42]

Since price found R at 1740 and S at 1685 and hasn't been able to maintain momentum in either direction, it's best to just stand aside and wait for the market to tell you what to do. Unless you want to trade it intraday. But that's not what this is about.

 

In any case, the waves are at least as important as LHs, and they were bullish.

[Niko 10]

After a REV around the top of the TR prices have plunged and after a RET to the MP of the last downswing sellers are pushing again towards the bottom of the TR around 96.81. But that level did not provide S last time it was reached so, one could expect it to be easily overtaken. Below 81, 64 is the next level to watch (PDL). If 64 fails to hold we would definitely be in the realms of the 96.92-94.94 TR.

 

 

Levels:

 

 

Chat will be on from 9:00 to 12:00 Your Own Chat - Free & Easy! ? » stinto.net «

[DbPhoenix 42]

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Interesting to follow:

 

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

.

 

This provides a not unusual example of why it's not a good idea to SAR in midair, i.e., distant from S or R (see previous charts), unless one is scalping, which of course one would not be doing with a 60m chart.

 

 

[tupapa 10]

So, under what circumstances would you short this longer term?? D top at 40??

[DbPhoenix 42]

Or a RET after a break below S.

 

It is common for beginners to think that price will plummet/rocket as soon as they transmit their order. Which of course it doesn't. There must be other reasons. It's up to the trader to determine what those reasons are and whether or not they are present. In any case, he's just along for the ride.