Trading The Wyckoff Way

[tupapa 10]

Who knows.... and who cares...

one of the biggest lessons i learned in past months is i do not know where is price heading.

i can only craft a plan to attack any direction price will decide to take.

 

I'm assuming this post intention was igniting participant's response and ideas, but without any clear view to the left any answer is valid.

 

 

 

Tomer

 

Absolutely, and I don't think it is coincidental that this questions was asked in the Auction Market Theory thread

[PrymeTyme 10]

Who knows.... and who cares...

one of the biggest lessons i learned in past months is i do not know where is price heading.

i can only craft a plan to attack any direction price will decide to take.

 

I'm assuming this post intention was igniting participant's response and ideas, but without any clear view to the left any answer is valid.

 

 

 

Tomer

 

 

yess true we dont know where price is hading next.. , but its the bears who are in charge

not the bulls .. just focusing on the current picture , the bulls allready showed their strenght

 

therfore i would lookout for longs atm , but also be cautioned on any supply hitting teh market .. but till now we dont have a lower high , the current attempt of a rallie is still in play ...

[Bern 10]

I would say that it really depends on the timeframe.

 

To know where is potential support or resistance would help.

 

If I had to choose, given the waves rythm and length, given where was the last swing high in what appears as an uptrend in this timeframe, I would say that this is a retracement.

 

I will not mention anything about volume since this is a chart with a rather small bar interval.

 

I want to change this to what I answered:

 

To know where is potential support or resistance is of paramount significance for answering the question.

 

I would add that my feeling is that the question is a tricky one : it does not provide enough information to answer it satisfactorily.

[Perrin 10]

its a retracement in an uptrend

 

 

But if no more buying comes in then price might drift sideways, at some point those holding stock might start getting worried that price is not rising, which may encourage them to sell, which may encourage more selling as there'd be a lower high & break of the uptrend line.

 

I think "be prepared" is good advice. It's hard for me to be prepared for whatever happens. If we could see more then perhaps we'd get a better picture. But we can't so we have to go on what we've got (or stay out until we're comfortable with the setup).

 

Which actually brings me in a bit of a circle to wonder if you (PT) are right and if we're only going to go on the current chart that we can see perhaps long is best (trade with the trend) at least until we get more information. But the movement from A to B looks a bit stop-start to me, it's on low volume (perhaps a more average amount of volume would indicate a continuation?)

 

In your description of the chart you wrote that 'Volume tends to increase on rallies and decrease on reactions' - but there is no increase of volume in the current rally so far (from A to B).

 

Perhaps it is just the way I am that I seem to currently favour countertrend trading, so I tend to find myself looking for trades which match that bias.

Edited January 27, 2013 by Perrin

[PrymeTyme 10]

But if no more buying comes in then price might drift sideways, at some point those holding stock might start getting worried that price is not rising, which may encourage them to sell, which may encourage more selling as there'd be a lower high & break of the uptrend line.

 

I think "be prepared" is good advice. It's hard for me to be prepared for whatever happens. If we could see more then perhaps we'd get a better picture. But we can't so we have to go on what we've got (or stay out until we're comfortable with the setup).

 

Which actually brings me in a bit of a circle to wonder if you (PT) are right and if we're only going to go on the current chart that we can see perhaps long is best (trade with the trend) at least until we get more information. But the movement from A to B looks a bit stop-start to me, it's on low volume (perhaps a more average amount of volume would indicate a continuation?)

 

In your description of the chart you wrote that 'Volume tends to increase on rallies and decrease on reactions' - but there is no increase of volume in the current rally so far (from A to B).

 

Perhaps it is just the way I am that I seem to currently favour countertrend trading, so I tend to find myself looking for trades which match that bias.

 

Hi Perrin

 

 

yup , te rallie from A to B is on low volume , and tapperd off quite heavy

i may forgott to add that in my description .. or make it clearly,,

 

but what does it tell us ?

 

first off price advances even on low vol. and that by itself isnt bearish per se

it just means that there isnt much activity atm ,

 

but due to the recent background (strenght) its not the bulls who have to proof their ground

the bears are the ones who need to come out and show their hands ...

 

it might be that , due to the lack of demand or lack of upside progress ,it may lead to supply and weakness .. due to traders unloading their holdings.. etc..

but till then , the market is strong .

[DbPhoenix 42]

After a lengthy discussion of retracements and reversals, an exercise such as this serves to focus the attention on just what retracements and reversals are and what the difference is between them. But the answer isn't as important as the process one goes through in order to arrive at it.

 

Some will immediately look at trend, support and resistance, waves, volume, compression and expansion, almost as a reflex action, the sort of thing a professional will do automatically. This likely will have much to do with the amount of time and effort the individual has devoted to the course. Others, not knowing what to look for, will decide instead that there's nothing to see.

 

There may also be an observable difference between those who do this every day in real time and those who don't, but there are people who learn how to do excellent hindsight analyses without ever having traded -- successfully -- in real time at all.

 

Think, therefore, about your process. What did you look for, if anything? Did you know what to look for? Where to start? Did you slip into a well-practiced routine? Did you recognize that everything you need to know is given to you? Did you find that you may have been following the wrong map?

[tupapa 10]

Look familiar?

 

 

 

The Oil Hinge breakout seems imminent:

 

On the daily we are literally hugging the hinge upper limit:

 

 

And on the 60m we are forming another Hinge, an upside breakout of this, would be a double hinge breakout, both of the daily and the 60m:

 

Edited August 19, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[Niko 10]

Levels for today´s morning:

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

-

 

Keeping an eye on Apple.

 

 

 

 

And preliminary support:

 

 

[tupapa 10]

And Oil leaves the Hinge:

 

[Niko 10]

After a failed BO, seems we are back on the TR between 96.7 and 95.4

 

[Niko 10]

Oil Analysis:

 

Sellers were able to keep buyers at bay at 96.9, where prices were strongly rejected , now prices are back in the TR between 96.7 and 95.4.

 

 

As for strategies:

 

REV or BO plays at the extremes.

 

Surf with the trend within the shorter term TRs levels.

 

[Niko 10]

We are at the top of the daily TR zone:

 

 

Zooming in we can see how 80 provided R during the last few days when the market has been in a very boring TR.

 

 

Stronger down waves, LLs and LHs are indications of Sellers having the upper hand, S/R levels are provided within the chart.

[tomerok 10]

Sharp eyes will notice i have been converted to time based charts

I did not notice any significant edge with tick for my kind of trading

another change i have made is zooming out to 5M chart's and timing the entry on 1M

which result with a calmer experience of the trading session

 

if anyone interested i use 60 and 15 to determine levels and and come up with an action plan for the day

during the session i watch the 5m (mainly) and 1m for entry keeping the 15m open as a reminder for my general daily plan.

 

 

Tomer.

 

 

 

[tupapa 10]

Hi Perrin

 

 

yup , te rallie from A to B is on low volume , and tapperd off quite heavy

i may forgott to add that in my description .. or make it clearly,,

 

but what does it tell us ?

 

first off price advances even on low vol. and that by itself isnt bearish per se

it just means that there isnt much activity atm ,

 

but due to the recent background (strenght) its not the bulls who have to proof their ground

the bears are the ones who need to come out and show their hands ...

 

it might be that , due to the lack of demand or lack of upside progress ,it may lead to supply and weakness .. due to traders unloading their holdings.. etc..

but till then , the market is strong .

 

I think you might be focusing to much on volume, and leaving aside price and time. Personally, I only use volume intraday when I am looking for evidence of accumulation, or climactic action . I find the whole high vol on rally and low volume on correction axiom impractical and deceiving.

 

So if we leave aside volume, colored bars, the time of the day (duno abou the Us but in Europe, it is common for the market to reverse at lunch time), and that annoying Ema, we can focus on price and time, which in my opinion, are the more relevant variables.

 

Starting from around 10:40, You have an up-wave that lasts for 35 minutes and accounts for 6 points.

 

Then there is a down-wave from 1502 to 1500, that lasts only 15 minutes, the bulls are clearly in control.

 

The subsequent up-wave accounts for 6 points, but lasts only 15 minutes.

 

Then there is another down wave, which accounts for 5 points and lasts for 35 minutes, this is the first sign of trouble for the bulls, an increase in the length and extent of the down-waves.

 

Now to the final wave, which starts at around 12:15 and, even though it lasts for 40 minutes, it only accounts for a 3 point increase, resulting in a LH.

 

Diagram should explain this better:

 

[Niko 10]

I think you might be focusing to much on volume, and leaving aside price and time. Personally, I only use volume intraday when I am looking for evidence of accumulation, or climactic action . I find the whole high vol on rally and low volume on correction axiom impractical and deceiving.

 

So if we leave aside volume, colored bars, the time of the day (duno abou the Us but in Europe, it is common for the market to reverse at lunch time), and that annoying Ema, we can focus on price and time, which in my opinion, are the more relevant variables.

 

Starting from around 10:40, You have an up-wave that lasts for 35 minutes and accounts for 6 points.

 

Then there is a down-wave from 1502 to 1500, that lasts only 15 minutes, the bulls are clearly in control.

 

The subsequent up-wave accounts for 6 points, but lasts only 15 minutes.

 

Then there is another down wave, which accounts for 5 points and lasts for 35 minutes, this is the first sign of trouble for the bulls, an increase in the length and extent of the down-waves.

 

Now to the final wave, which starts at around 12:15 and, even though it lasts for 40 minutes, it only accounts for a 3 point increase, resulting in a LH.

 

Diagram should explain this better:

 

 

 

Interesting, I hardly ever look at time, will give it a try.

[PrymeTyme 10]

Hi tupapa

 

I do actually look at time / price aswell. Called momentum

The vol. Is just the the dot on the i ....

 

Its especially interresting when it takes for example 6 bars to correct (sellibg wave)

But onlx 1 or 2 bars to make back the ground and some more (buying)

 

Cheers

[Niko 10]

Long term levels for Oil:

 

The range is 2 dollars +/- current market price:

 

 

Short term view (15 min)

 

 

Chat link: http://stinto.net/en/chat.htm;jsessionid=471AE45D2F4D4F86613F6D4D3FD56067?refId=sn6x5#

Edited January 30, 2013 by Niko

[Niko 10]

Levels for NQ:

 

[gozila 10]

how i know the background ( Selling climax or buying climax ) is valid?

 

because sometimes after see Selling climax or buying climax the price continue in the same way

[Niko 10]

Did you read the Wyckoff book?

[Niko 10]

LONG TERM LEVELS FOR OIL:

 

 

THE ZOOM IN:

 

[Niko 10]

NQ Levels:

 

Long Term:

 

 

Zoom In:

 

 

Chat link: http://stinto.net/en/chat.htm;jsessionid=471AE45D2F4D4F86613F6D4D3FD56067?refId=sn6x5#

Edited January 31, 2013 by Niko

[eminiman414 10]

Not sure if this would be a good thread to do this, but is anyone interested in discussing the use of the 1 tick chart? As a start I have some questions.

 

Do you find it useful?

What are you trying to accomplish/what are you looking for when using it?

 

I can only view a max of about 4 minutes on the chart and that is when activity begins to slow down. I really do like using it but I find myself glancing maybe a little too much at the one minute chart. Is it worth it to have such a limited view?

 

Should it be used like the time and sales, at places of potential s/r?

 

I have posted two charts and you can see the limited view I have, however in that limited view there seems to be some very important things happening. Anyone care to analyze the two charts? Obviously hindsight and you can't see the pace or flow, but just for fun I suppose.

 

P.S. It's two charts because I can't fit all the action in one window.

[Niko 10]

The tick lets you follow price as close as possible, but using it as the only source of information will put you in a very limited view position.

 

I personally cant use the 1 tick, because of ninja screen sizing issues, so i use a 30 tick chart. If you are in the screen time phase, a tick chart is a must as you will be able to understand the continuous nature of price.

 

When you begin pattern identification and backtesting you will have to use other intervals as well.