Trading The Wyckoff Way

[Niko 10]

My levels for this morning:

 

 

Buyers managed to get through the TR (22-38) without much trouble and now prices are falling towards the top of the TR at 38, that could provide S.

 

If 38 holds I would look for R at:

 

• 47
  
• 58
  
• 68
  

 

If 38 does not hold and prices return to the TR then S should be found at:

 

• 30
  
• 22
  
• 12
  
• 04
  

 

The plan is buy the successful test of 38 or short below 38 after the first test of R. The short is riskier, because as DB pointed out we are on an uptrend.

[pjohnm 10]

Given that todays open presented an almost identical set-up to the previous days open, I thought this chart would be worth posting as a comparison. The placement of R and the reason for taking the short should be obvious, but the question is what to do thereafter.

 

Having spent the past half an hour tieing myself up in knots regarding entry and stop placement, I'm just going to post the chart for future reference.

[Niko 10]

Plan for yesterday:

 

" The plan is buy the successful test of 38 or short below 38 after the first test of R. The short is riskier, because as DB pointed out we are on an uptrend."

 

 

The market opened above 38 and sellers tested the level around 9:33 but were unsuccessful, a hinge formed and that was the signal for an entry (1st diamond), this resulted in a trust and then prices just went mad making HH and LLs.

 

1. S was reached around 9:45 and prices finally broke below S after a hinge BO this hinge could have yielded a profit depending on trade management. Buyers were waiting at 36, and after a struggle and another hinge prices fell again, this time prices did not held lower and a strong uptrust was the signal that something was wrong with sellers, this would have probably mean that this hinge entry would have possibly ended in a loss or at best a BE trade.

 

2. After a strugle and a not so clear hinge buyers tested interest above R but a strong downwave around 10:00 gave the signal of weakness. In this case the entry activated with the hinge was a long one that most possibly would have ended in a loss.

 

Weakness was confirmed by a LH below R and a strong down wave, then around 33 buyers started pushing prices up, but the effort was too high and the result was too poor. In fact a hinge formed around 10:03 but it would have been a losing trade again. Around 10:13 a hinge gave an entry signal and prices fell rapidly, then a small congestion formed above S and that gave birth to 3 more hinges (entries marked with diamonds).

 

3. 30 did not provide much S as prices fell through it without difficulty. Prices fell all the way to 33 where another hinge was formed, the entry here was a long one and one that would have ended in a loss.

 

4. Prices finally reached S at 22, after a strong upwave and a HL another hinge was formed, but sellers were not about to give up and tested S again making this hinge a losing one. Prices entered into a congestion (green box) and after a failed BO another hinge was formed.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Niko

[DbPhoenix 42]

Now that the "trend" is obvious, it's done. However, in the overall picture of the last two weeks, we are back where we started, having gone more or less nowhere.

 

Will we form a trading range here? Or break out to the upside? As usual, a test of R suggests a short, a BO and RET to the upside demands a long.

 

Stay tuned.

 

 

[Niko 10]

We are once again around the 38 S/R level but the context is different as we are a out of the channel and the H at 43 has been tested overnight.

 

 

R levels are:

 

• 47
  
• 58
  
• 68
  

S levels are:

 

• 30
  
• 22
  
• 13-10
  
• 04
  

[Niko 10]

Was the chat changed again?

[DbPhoenix 42]

Reading a lot of hair-pulling and rending of garments over gold and its imminent collapse. But so far it's done nothing but bounce back and forth in a trading range. Anyone long before gold entered this range and who knows nothing about trading ranges might be gnashing his teeth and tossing and turning at night. But the knowledgeable trader would be long off support and short off resistance, thus keeping him in an already-profitable position should gold drop out of the bottom of this trading range.

 

Note: this post/thread will be moved to the Auction Market Theory thread when it has served its purpose (a few days, probably).

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

Look familiar? (If not, see the Springboards/Hinges thread.)

 

 

 

 

Edited August 19, 2015 by DbPhoenix

[tupapa 10]

Das Bund is forming a Tr between 142.22-142.74, so tomorrows plan is to trade around these reference points:

 

If we open between B and A: Short a rejection of B and go long on a rejection of A.

 

If we break below A, go long on a rejection of 142.07, if we return into the range, hold for a test of the MP at 142.42.

 

If price comes back to A and can't hold above, short anticipating a lower low below 142.07.

 

If we break above B, go short on a rejection of C and monitor price on the pullback to B, if we fall below, hold for a test of the MP, at 142.42

 

If price breaks B, and holds above, go long and monitor price at C and around 143.00

 

 

This should cover most contingencies for the morning. Below 142.07, there is a range upper limit at 142.00 and an MP at 141.75

[PrymeTyme 10]

Analysis from: 13.01.2012 / Eur/Usd H1

 

Background:

with the recent signs of strenght (SOS)

we have a confirmed strong market atm.

the next hurdle to overcome is a major resistance level

of a big range (33754) , the actual reaction also holds true

to the recent strenght, however a correction might apply

 

and in this case , may invite to longs

 

therefore Longs are Low risk and shorts are high risk

 

 

Notes:

Trading at Major resistance ,

Strong Market

 

Signs of strength:

Bigger Picture Uptrend (daily)

High Vol Upbars

No Real Correction

 

Signs Of weakness:

None

 

LowRisk: Long

HighRisk: Short

 

Key levels ,above current price : (problems with MT4 History Charts )

 

33754 - Maj. Resistance

34313 - MP

34829 - Resistance

35187 - PPZ

 

 

 

 

Key levels ,below current price :

 

32948 - Broken Resistance

32794 - Broken Resistance

32645 - MP

32483 - Support

32331 - PPZ

32219 - MP

32099 - PPZ

31922 - PPZ

 

 

----------------

 

Execution (Journal)

Journal from 14.01.2013

 

time stamps -1h on broker (chart)

 

we traded right thru resistance at 33754

on a good volume and up bar , the actual retest

looks like the level is holding 08:37

 

the resistance level 33754 isnt holding and got obsolete 09:01

the selling pressure increases

 

due to the increasing selling pressure from 33574

a short on a retest with following specs would

be anticipated , but the risk is still high fro shorts

and such a position wil get managed tight 09:08

 

short

 

337XX entry

33803 SL

3357 FTA

3350 TA

33373 TP

------------------

OTOH

a long position could be anticipated on the MP 33733

if the buying overcomes the selling in one form or the other

specs are below , specs might change due to the way we trade

towards this level and its PA behaviour

 

long

 

33733 entry

33198 SL

3350 FTA

33754 TA

3400 TP (swing high of the day)

 

 

----------------

 

we have some evidence of a stopping action a lil climactic in nature 09:20

 

and price attempts a rallie , it depends on how this rallie plays out (forms) and how price

acts at or near our anticipated entry (337XX) to take a short

 

 

the small rallie got cut off quickly and the three bar rallie was weak,

the selling pressure continues 09:26

 

-------------

 

 

price reacted on a MP 3350 of a small 5min friday range 09:30

 

i drew in a supply channel on m1 09:34

 

we made a lower high and a lower low

 

after a shortening of the downward thrust , price barely reacted at the

supply line of the channel , and left the channel 09:40

 

its interressting to note that the shortening of the downward thrust

happened at the small range MP 33500

 

where the selling pressure , was declining in form of the volume behaviour ,

and price made no further downside progress,

 

so sellers are done for the time beeing, but still we have weakness in

the most recent background

--------------------------------

 

after a rallie wich has a series of higher lows thou , we formed a lower

high , but the accompanied selling was on declining (low) volume 10.00

 

and we formed yet another higher low , 10:02

 

it does look that we form a range 10:10 (hinge?)

---------------------------------------

there is the break out t o the upside 10:26

 

the rallie towards 33754 (res) is strong thou ,

lets see if supply hits the market . in order to short

 

for now we poked thru teh resistance, ,10:38

traded back below it , but the PA doesent looks convincing to short 10:41

 

 

the current selling is rather weak , and that at a resistance level

doesent add to weakness , therefore , no short 10:45

 

 

--------------------------------

 

i do think about a long thou. as we might see a springboard in the making 10:49

 

specs:

 

337xx entry

33692 SL

3390 FTA

3403 TP

 

i took that long 10:52

 

entry 1.33749

SL 1.33691

FTA 1.33900 PPZ

TP 1.34000

---------

 

we got some signs of absorbtion 10:56

---------

 

 

All set . time to go to my nine to five

EDIT : SL set to BE 11:13

[DbPhoenix 42]

Interesting that the trend line in the NQ coincides with the midpoint of the rally off 2700.

[PrymeTyme 10]

a LiL HomeWork for tomorrow

 

Analysis from: 14.01.2013 EU 5min

 

 

 

Background:

price found resistance , and formed a range , whereas at the begining

of the range the selling waves are more distinct then the buying waves

 

but this changes at A and B where we have increasing activity (volume)

coming in at support , and we hold that level (A) and even form a higher low (B) , from that

point on there is a change in behaviour where the buying waves are more distinct then the

selling waves ,

 

 

till the springboard action at the pot. MP of the range , however

price advanced on dimnishing vol , ie. not much selling going on atm.

nevertheless we found resistance yet again.. wich we can conclude that

we might stay in the range for the time beeing , till the cause for the next move ,is

generated .. but the recent action is slightly bullish

as well as the background, but in this case we only trade the edges

of S and R

 

 

 

 

 

 

Notes:

Range forming ?

recent action indicates strenght

background is strong

only trade the edges

 

Signs of strength:

Uptrend

Volume at Support , Level holding

springboard

not much supply

 

Signs Of weakness:

Resistance

beginning of the range selling pressure was great

Lower Highs

 

LowRisk:

HighRisk:

 

Key levels ,above current price :

33906 - Resistance

34045 - Swing High

34334 - MP

 

 

 

Key levels ,below current price :

33638 - MP (pot.)

33373 - Support

32948 - Broken Resistance

[Niko 10]

My levels for today:

 

 

The plan is to look for hinges around S/R levels and trade the BOs of the LSH or LSL. (Short below R, Long Above S)

Edited January 15, 2013 by Niko

[Niko 10]

BTW the active chatroom is ACTIVE CHAT LINK

[Niko 10]

Today the market did not move much, and most of the session it just played around the 12 S/R level.

 

 

I have marked all the triangles that I identified in RT, what I am after is defining which of these triangles classify as a hinges. Any advice here would be appreciated.

 

The other thing that is hurting the P&L here is the chop, as can be seen once we entered in the chop around 9:47 all the triangles gave poor entry signals if not outright losses. I will keep looking for this during last year trading to see if I can come out with a pattern, any advice here would be appreciated as well.

[DbPhoenix 42]

If you trade smaller and smaller intervals and shorter and shorter timeframes, you will eventually end up trading for ticks unless you also trade off major support and resistance lines and zones. Keep in mind also that you are focusing on what is essentially a continuation pattern. If you don't focus on one of the three major strategies, you may feel "safer", but your profits will likely suffer.

 

Here you begin with a reversal and lower high at 2748. You may not be there to trade it, but it is there nonetheless. The hinge forms later, as a continuation of the move downward. Again, you may not be there to trade it, but it's there. Price then retraces the the midpoint of the hinge. If you don't catch that, there's a springboard at 2720.

 

 

You trade at the market's pleasure, not the reverse. If you're not there to trade the opportunities presented to you, then you must either be satisfied with the crumbs made available by scalping or wait until price reaches a major S/R level or zone and trade off that. A tick chart may provide you with a superior entry off a major S/R level, but it will only lead you into multiple blind alleys if its general movement is aimless, as it will be if there are no major S/R levels nearby.

[PrymeTyme 10]

Analysis from: 15.01 EU M5

 

Background:

in the overnight session (15th) , we all ready notice

that the selling pressure is increasing thus the selling waves

are more distinct then the buying waves , in the earlie London

session , we attempted a rallie towards resistance , but failed to reach

it m thus formed a Lower High , wich led to another selloff ,

eventually breaking support , price then grinded its way back to broken support

but failed to stay above it and formed a hinge

 

where price dropped hard to the downside , in a climactic way

high volume , forming a potential selling climax ?

 

however the big high vol downbar , is a red flag and thusfar

counts as weakness , however if the selling climax holds true,

we might see strenght returning at its lows , or slightly higher

 

till then this market is weak ,

 

 

 

Notes:

Broken Support

Potential SC

Potential Supply Channel

Weak

 

Signs of strength:

Pot SC

Bigger Pic. UpTrend

 

Signs Of weakness:

Broken Support

Selling Pressure is high

 

LowRisk: Short

HighRisk: Long

 

Key levels ,above current price :

 

33374 - PPZ broken support + HMP

33639 - MP

33937 - Resistance

 

 

Key levels ,below current price :

 

32948 - pot. support

32794 - broken res.

32648 - mp

32483 - support

[Niko 10]

My levels and possible courses of action depending on the days movement, I will focus today on entering at the S/R levels, according to price action on the 3 types of entry REV, RET, BO.

 

 

CHAT LINK

 

Your Own Chat - Free & Easy! ? » stinto.net «

[Niko 10]

From today on I will also post a premarket action analysis, as it has become a subject of discussion during the chat.

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

I suggest that you look also at 15m and 60m bars at least. You may find that you're plop in the middle of a trading range, and that's not the best place to find profitable trades. Trading there means trading chop, and that encourages all sorts of bad habits, not to mention draining the account.

 

Remember that if you trade at the extremes you are far more likely to have power behind whatever move will occur because many more people will see what you see, i.e., the 5m people, the 15m people, even the daily people. The point of using a small bar interval at those levels is that you can see entry ops that others can't: while they're waiting around for confirmation, you've already had yours. Thus when the move occurs, stops are an irrelevance.

 

Too many people who use small bar intervals end up confining their field of view to what amounts to a keyhole. Your task is to open the door and widen your field of view to a much broader context.

[Niko 10]

This is my analysis, I looked for hinges, but I also noticed activity around S/R levels and pointed out levels of entry, exist are not currently under analysis:

 

 

The conventions are explained at the lower right corner

 

1. As prices reached the 22 level at the open a DT and the break of the last swing low were signs of weakness. This was confirmed by a LH.

 

2. Before reaching S at 13 buyers started fighting sellers and that was shown in a small TR and 2 hinges, that finally broke up to the upside. No position taken here as prices were away from S.

 

3. After prices exited the TR R at 22 and made a new high a Ret gave an entry signal (no hinge here), but then a deeper pullback activated the stops on that trade. A hinge around 10:00 broke to the upside and provided another entry.

 

4. This is something to work in during back testing, because this kind of environment could possibly activate all my exits and leave me out of the trade. Any advice here would be appreciated.

 

5.Price reached R at 30, and after buyers failed to attract a following at 32 prices collapsed and a LH gave further indications of weakness.

 

6. In case the long from 25 was still active this is a tricky one, as it looks like an opp to short, but we are still above the TL so perhaps waiting for the TL break is the prudent thing to do. I did not think about SAR, but waited for the break of the TL to activate a short, but this came as a bad trade as the stop was taken out before price went down, and I do not have reentry conditions according to my PA.

[Niko 10]

I suggest that you look also at 15m and 60m bars at least. You may find that you're plop in the middle of a trading range.

 

As you pointed out we are actually in the middle of a TR between 05 and 47.

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

4. This is something to work in during back testing, because this kind of environment could possibly activate all my exits and leave me out of the trade. Any advice here would be appreciated.

 

This is an example of what I was talking about earlier: looking through the keyhole instead of opening the door. 2728 is the midpoint of the downmove from 2749 to 2706, and if you choose to trade here, you're going to have to use a 1t chart and surf, shooting for ticks. Otherwise you'll get SO again and again and accomplish little except for feeding your frustration.

 

Note also that price is forming a hinge now at exactly this level.

[Niko 10]

Just some observations.

 

[PrymeTyme 10]

HI Niko

 

 

what we see now , is Indecision!

 

 

wich means we should stay on the sideline , for the time beeing

and only tarde the extremes , (red squares) as we dont want to trade

in the middle of all that (blue square) indecision ,, wich would make us a

part of a playball....

 

what do we know thus far ?

 

well we see that price isnt able to break below support , even on high vol.

but price also aint able to make significant upward progress

 

waht makes the indecision quite clearly is the Hinge that formed! (pink)

 

therefore , we just watch how that plays out !

 

 

cheers