Trading The Wyckoff Way

[DbPhoenix 42]

There is an inbetween the SL break and the LSH for exiting: the last "swing" low, or the bottom of the last step. You'll notice that the bottom of each step (it will look like a swing with a smaller bar interval) provides R to the "rally" attempts at each succeeding step. Rather than exit as soon as the SL is broken or wait nervously to see if price is going to exceed the LSH, back off for a bit and see if price can decisively penetrate that last step bottom, or "swing low". If you're nowhere near anticipated S, there's no objective reason to be excessively jumpy.

 

Db

 

 

 

[Niko 10]

Do you take into account the longer time frame trend in order to define how to exit. I mean, if you are in a downtrend in the long term should you give more breathing room to a short trade, as opposed as when you are shorting a reversal on a long term uptrend.

[Niko 10]

There is an inbetween the SL break and the LSH for exiting: the last "swing" low.

 

Interesting use for a LSL in a downtrend, I have always seen those levels as pyramiding opportunities, or entry levels in case the first BO or the first pullback was missed.

[blocp 10]

here are my levels for today, I keep posting these charts, they might be of interest to someone or they might not, but what it is doing for me is making trading like a full time job with daily tasks to do and bringing some routine to my life.(by the way I hate routine but am coming to the conclusion that it's the only way for me to have a chance of making it)

[Gringo 10]

NQ has a TR from around 09 to 47. There are a lot of S/R mostly above. Below 09 area there's some space. Price has been playing with the 47/48 level today and could make a run to the upside. It's interesting to note that daily charts are also showing consolidation and a potential for upside before those willing to short longer term can deploy their short positions.

 

For intra day the S/R are given below. Some are minor and some major.

 

78

70

62

50

48

40

29

20

10

07

 

Early in the trading the 40-48 might give a clue as to which way we're heading.

 

Gringo

[pjohnm 10]

Here's what Im looking at.

[DbPhoenix 42]

here are my levels for today, I keep posting these charts, they might be of interest to someone or they might not, but what it is doing for me is making trading like a full time job with daily tasks to do and bringing some routine to my life.(by the way I hate routine but am coming to the conclusion that it's the only way for me to have a chance of making it)

 

Few beginners understand how boring this can be once one has a trusted and profitable plan in place. Most of them are in it for the adrenaline rush, not to make money, which may be the primary reason why they avoid developing a plan -- including the requisite testing -- like the plague.

 

On the other hand, you're working for a couple of hours a day, those days you wish to work. So a little boredom is a small price to pay.

 

Incidentally, that airpocket above 46 may be of interest today.

 

Db

[Niko 10]

My levels and what I see as Prices Reach Resistance at 45-47.

 

If broken out, next level at 60 if not next level at 29.

 

[tomerok 10]

just a reminder the chat room is active

 

into.net/chat.htm?refId=taysn

 

Tomer

[Niko 10]

Tomerok,

 

I think the link is wrong, it sends me to an expired website.

[tomerok 10]

Tomerok,

 

I think the link is wrong, it sends me to an expired website.

 

 

miscopied...

 

http://stinto.net/chat.htm?refId=taysn

 

Tomer

[Niko 10]

My levels for today. It found R at the midpoint of the last downswing.

 

Currently around the 60 level. If broken down 44 is my next level of S, if tested successfully R expected around 71-77.

 

[blocp 10]

I didn't really know where to place these charts but as this is how i spend the morning after the previous session going over all my notes and adding post session notes (in red) to the charts, and after all they are the main part of my journal this seems as good a place as any,

they might not make sense but I hope someone get a bit of use out of them or can correct anything they think I have wrong or even a better way of analyzing something

[blocp 10]

here are my charts for today:

[DbPhoenix 42]

Excellent. Re your first chart, tho, the task is not to not get shaken out if and when a shakeout occurs but (a) to be aware of the possibility of it and (b) to remain disinterested if and when it occurs, i.e., not to have one's head explode just because one is being tested.

 

I also want to point out -- in case it needs pointing out -- how simple trading can be if only one is patient and waits for the right opportunity. This can be particularly difficult after a day -- or string of days -- in which nothing ever sets up, and one even begins trading junk just for the sake of something to do. This is not only unprofessional, it's stupid. But if one waits for what is undeniably the right setup, there's really nothing to what, yesterday, was a potentially a 40pt gain.

 

So avoid marginal trades simply because you feel you're owed something for having endured the inaction for so long. If you just can't keep your finger off the transmit button, take a walk.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

Given yesterday's action and discussion, I don't want anyone to get the idea that midpoints are the keys to the kingdom. Trading them mechanically will not provide consistently satisfactory results.

 

Think of them rather as a Fear-O-Meter. Holders will take a retracement of reasonable depth in stride, but when that retracement reaches 50%, their hands will be on the exit door bar.

 

Therefore, attend not so much to the depth of the retracement per se but to the fear. If activity increases and buyers can't pull price up out of its dive, dial up the concern a bit.

 

Db

[tomerok 10]

My levels for today. It found R at the midpoint of the last downswing.

 

Currently around the 60 level. If broken down 44 is my next level of S, if tested successfully R expected around 71-77.

 

 

Niko

 

for my taste the TL from 40 to 30 is redundant and wrong, trend lines “serve to define the stride of the price movement...".

you should have plotted it as close as possible to the immediate trend.

 

just my 2c

 

Tomer.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Niko

 

for my taste the TL from 40 to 30 is redundant and wrong, trend lines “serve to define the stride of the price movement...".

you should have plotted it as close as possible to the immediate trend.

 

just my 2c

 

Tomer.

 

Yes and no. There are actually three. The first starts with 2840, breezes past 2785 and 2745, then is broken at 2740. When price makes a new low, this can be rotated out to use 2740 as a TL point. When that's broken at 2745 and price makes a new low thereafter, a third one can be drawn that uses 2745 and 2730 as TL points. But the TL would not be rotated out as far as this one is. The break is at the same price, but several days earlier.

 

Db

[Gringo 10]

Levels are the same. There are a lot of S/R levels above.

 

Early in the day levels of importance:

56, 61.5 (hinge middle), 64, 70, 73

 

Later in the day levels:

90

78

73

64

62

57

50

48

40

29

20

10

07

 

Gringo

Edited October 17, 2012 by Gringo
corrected levels for early in the day

[Gringo 10]

QQQ is reaching an interesting price level. Price is around the resistance zone but we still have to see supply assert itself. In the absence of supply coming in there is no short. I am looking at it from the perspective of initiating a short sale only for now. Once the strength becomes evident I'll try to update possibilities for longs.

 

67.75 and 68.50 interesting levels closest to the current price level of 68.25 which is a bit more significant (but it's dependent on supply and demand dynamics). Focus on price behaviour will be the key.

 

Criteria for making a decision:

1. Price behaviour
   
2. Support & Resistance levels
   
3. Supply lines & Demand lines
   

 

Notice the lack of indicators and also volume.

 

 

QQQ 2 hour chart for greater clarity:

 

 

 

Notice the mini DL which is holding still. Shorts will have to be put on hold as long as it is intact.

 

Gringo

 

Edit: The smaller chart is of 2 hour bars (120 mins). I didn't realize it.

Edited October 17, 2012 by Gringo
added 60 min chart

[eminiman414 10]

Hey Guys,

 

My first chart is just showing some of my choices for the general levels of interest. Blue lines are S/R, purple is midpoints of larger ranges, and the green on the first chart is the previous days high. I pegged basically yesterdays range almost spot on and although it was just a 3pt range I am proud that I am getting the hang of finding levels.

 

The second chart is today's 90 minutes or so of trading. I have drawn in what I think are supply lines and the circles are where I "called out" entries as I just watched price move. I did not actually trade these areas.

 

Point A. After breaking from an area of resistance yesterday price fell back below that area but made a higher low. Price came back to the 833 area showing some support. I thought this to be a buying opportunity.

 

Point B. Price traveled above yesterdays high but stayed in about a 5 tick range at and above the high. I though this showed strong support. Would this be considered a springboard right at that level? I though this to be a buying opportunity but maybe riskier since we would be buying in an up wave?

 

Point C 1. Saw this in hindsight. If that area at the previous days high was a springboard then price broke from that area but pulled back to the top of that range but when no further. I saw this as a buying opportunity. This would have made a few more ticks then C 2 on the chart, but was a hindsight observation. Is this a plausible entry?

 

Point C 2. Was waiting for price to pulled back to S for an entry. It did not retrace all the way to S which I saw as strength. Entry was on the break of the line having price come to me.

 

Point D. Playing a break of an area that was a midrange that appeared to show support on the pullback.

 

Point E. Price tested the midpoint showing support.

 

I seem to like trading when price breaks R and pulls back showing S within the context of price showing strength or weakness. Point E I probably would not have traded, maybe not D either, but A, B, and C I said ok buy at...Again calling it outloud just as I watch.

 

I have been trading volume bars because watching a minute chart with volume gets confusing for me at times so my thought process is that price and volume are important, but price being more important so i've been using charts that have volume built in. Is this logical? Today on the one minute time frame the price volume relationship was easy to see especially at point C which was a "flag pattern" with an increase in price and volume then a pullback of price on diminishing volume. I know I know the pattern does not matter nor does the chart type of for incorporating price and volume does my thinking make sense if I am having trouble with the volume portion?

 

I thank you in advance for the help. Sorry my posts are novels.

[Niko 10]

My levels for Oil. If anyone is interested...

 

 

Red lines: Higher time frames

Purple lines: Current Time frame

Thin lines: Midpoints

[Niko 10]

In case anyone wants to discuss entry strategies, I think that I would be better if they could be discussed in an specific thread. I found the exits and scale out thread very useful.

[tupapa 10]

Gringo, what is your criteria to initiate a short? Break of DL and LH on the 2h chart? Or do you use a smaller interal?

[Gringo 10]

Gringo, what is your criteria to initiate a short? Break of DL and LH on the 2h chart? Or do you use a smaller interal?

 

Tupapa,

 

The precise entry criteria is not the object but to show when the price dynamics have shifted towards a reasonable higher probability of a down move.

 

For those who have time could use 2 hour or smaller interval for an entry. I am more interested in keeping the analysis mainly to EOD so as to make it easier for those with lesser time at hand to recognize that price behaviour works independently of the time preference or bar intervals used. Once the support/resistance, supply/demand, and trend are taken into consideration the rest is just not as difficult.

 

QQQ is 1x Nasdaq 100.

PSQ is 1x Inverse Nasdaq 100.

 

QLD is 2x Nasdaq 100.

QLD is 2x Inverse Nasdaq 100.

 

TQQQ is 3x Nasdaq 100.

SQQQ is 3x Inverse Nasdaq 100.

 

The inverse ETF's go in the reverse direction of the orginal, meaning a 1% rise in Nasdaq 100 or QQQ should be a 1% drop in PSQ as an example.

 

Once the logic of how price moves is understood the vehicle to take advantage of that movement is a personal choice. Most would be advised to base it on risk tolerance and money management criteria determined by their plan.

 

End of day would be the main focus while the smaller bar intervals depend on my willingness and desire to do post it.

 

I also want to make it clear that the the short may not be profitable. The idea is that you cut your losses quickly and over time the correct decisions lead to increases in profits as sooner or later the price will go in the intended direction.

 

You're most welcome to add your analysis and thoughts as you deem fit. It's a collective effort.

 

Gringo