Trading The Wyckoff Way

[Gringo 10]

hmm...I'll have to think about it. But you are right, this midpoint game isn't as much fun.

[Gringo 10]

Today at the start was tougher as I was getting stopped out. Market tested the drop below 2798 or so and that short didn't work out then went up above 2804 and that also got stopped out. Didn't want to play within the 2998-2804 range (I had incorrectly written 2800 as the low in the Trading in Foresight thread but didn't have the time to fix the comment). In any case the charts started dying on me. I started missing moves trying to refresh and realizing after some time price wasn't moving.

 

I didn't get the long from 2790. I am not certain if I just missed it altogether or the charts giving me problems unsettled me and I felt disoriented without the flow of the price in front of me and also losing my S/R on charts after the refresh. That was a big move in hindsight. Price was going from the 2798-2804 range without much hindrance so eventually I shorted around 2803-2804 and got the down move. There was more to be had but that's all there is for today. I did feel stressed today especially after starting in the red and having to wait some time before a good entry delivered to the green side.

 

Had 9 entries today with 6 loosing, 2 gaining and 1 BE. The two gains bailed out the wrongs. One missed long at 2790 .

 

I am going to look into a streaming web-based futures data provider just to even paper trade as my head's spinning after the stoppages in charts. Web-based because at work streaming data for NinjaTrader didn't work so options are limited.

 

Net gain of 4.75 points.

 

 

Gringo

[DbPhoenix 42]

So, looking back on this, what did you miss? What should you have done?

 

Db

[Gringo 10]

After the SL break and exit around 12790, I re-shorted when price fell but it rebounded quickly, forcing me to exit. (In hindsight I am not sure whether it was a good short as price was close to S/R.)

 

The test being lower caused some confusion. The rebound was fast but I was debating whether it was a strong enough reversal owing to the lower test. When price did continue to go up I saw the S/R's above and wasn't sure it was a good idea to go into the move so late especially price heading towards the dreaded 2798-2804 range. I waited for a RET and another test and was a bit hesitant about believing price could go back up again after having had a trip from the top. My emotions seems to have overrode the signals price was giving in this instance.

 

Now that I think about it a similar kind of price behaviour happened yesterday before 10:00 when price dipped below and then rebounded nullifying my short. It seems it takes me a bit of time when I am forced to exit, right after an entry, to reverse my position. This ought to have been a sign that the initial diagnosis was faulty and I better get ready for SAR.

 

I should have heeded the signal given that shorts weren't working, the SL was broken and even though test was lower it was nonetheless a test as price did move upwards. Price was also at S/R. :doh: The proper thing was to take the long with a close stop and leave the guessing and emotionalizing to the masses.

 

Now this does seem like something worthy of my Trading Plan!

 

Gringo

Edited October 2, 2012 by Gringo

[DbPhoenix 42]

After the SL break and exit around 2790, I re-shorted when price fell but it rebounded quickly, forcing me to exit. (In hindsight I am not sure whether it was a good short as price was close to S/R.)

 

The test being lower caused some confusion.

 

By "test", are you referring to 2789?

 

Db

[Gringo 10]

Yes, the drop to around 2788 and a quick move up above 2789.

 

2789 and below I went short and then got stopped out on the rise up above 2789. Around 10:04 am EST.

 

Gringo

[DbPhoenix 42]

Yes, the drop to around 2788 and a quick move up above 2789.

 

2789 and below I went short and then got stopped out on the rise up above 2789. Around 10:04 am EST.

 

Gringo

 

I believe you all charted that narrow TR bet 87 and 89 from early this morning, but I don't recall anyone giving it any importance. Note that price rallies out of it, then retests it 40m later. This suggests that it's worth paying attention to if tested again.

 

Focus one eye on the price and the other eye on the left of your chart

 

I'm also picking up on a tendency to seek more confirmation after you've had a couple of failures. This is understandable, but the trades don't necessarily have anything to do with each other. Eventually you'll be able to withstand the negativity of a losing trade or two and apply the same risk tolerance to subsequent trades.

 

Db

 

 

 

[tomerok 10]

Morning all

Since I'm finding myself putting more weight on Trend Lines then I should, my long range views will not include them for now.

I also ditched the large scale chart and will only glance at it at the start of the week.

34 range – rearranged the boxes (trading ranges) to make more sense, levels are much more aligned and logical

 

In the past days price ranged between 2821 and 2778

2821 (Last swing high) was tested once and held, NO HH since then so i' look for HH today as a sign for buyers

2778 was tested on the last attempt down but price quickly turned up suggesting strong support.

 

21,13 range - nothing special that i could notice.

 

areas of interest similar to yesterday

R @ 2821

S @ 2778

Middle – 2794-2800 is choppy

 

Tomer.

[Niko 10]

I have plotted my levels for the NQ (Red lines are R and Green lines are S). Any comments will be appreciated.

 

 

As for things to do, here are my 2 cents:

 

I think we are still in the uptrend that started yesterday afternoon, at first I will watch what prices do as they approach the 2805 R level. In case it is penetrated, I will go in with the trend at the first RET opportunity. If it is tested and the buyers fail, I think there is room for a short after the test.

Edited October 3, 2012 by Niko

[pjohnm 10]

Oct 3rd Pre Mkt

Macro levels of 2780 / 2820 still in play (but note previous day low of 2772).

Price has since moved away from the lows of the TR and 2804 & 2796 provide potential S/R for the open.

Given the upmove since the close, it should not be a surprise if buying strength continues.

 

Looking for breaks of D/S lines with entries above the LSL/H around these levels, also looking at entering on RET's once a D/S line is established.

 

Long bias unless 2796 breached.

[blocp 10]

hi here is my analysis for today sorry if it's not very good I have been in a rush trying to get it done so I can add something to the forum.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Keep an eye on 88 to 04.

 

Db

[Gringo 10]

Larger TR is still 2820 to 2780.

Immediately 2803 is interesting. I'll keep an eye on it.

There's an interesting mini hinge right in the middle of all.

 

 

 

 

 

Today I'll attempt to take all entries irrespective of previous gain/loss. Especially losses.

 

Gringo

 

Edit: I removed a lot of pink lines as they were distracting and confusing me. Clearer chart is better and I can always look to the left.

Edited October 3, 2012 by Gringo

[DbPhoenix 42]

The test being lower caused some confusion.

 

I meant to address this yesterday, but got distracted. Whether or not the test is slightly lower is not as important as how traders react to it. If price pokes a little lower and price rebounds fast and hard, you can assume there's serious interest there in reversing the direction. That may or may not be enough for you to go ahead and try the trade.

 

Db

[Niko 10]

2805 proved to be resistance, my first level of support was around 2791.5. Assuming one is trading just one contract is it prudent to exit at support, given what has happened in the last minutes?

 

 

A possible trade is marked with a diamond for the entry, a square for the initial stop and a circle for the exit after reaching the first level of support in my analysis.

[DbPhoenix 42]

2805 proved to be resistance, my first level of support was around 2791.5. Assuming one is trading just one contract is it prudent to exit at support, given what has happened in the last minutes?

 

You may not want to exit at that exact bar, but when price shows no inclination to continue downward for several minutes, you could exit on any higher high. Or just exit and bank the money. If you're trading real money, probably the latter. Then simtrade a second contract.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

Note here that $ is finding R at the PDH, which is also the midpt of the little pre-open TR on the 1st.

 

Db

[Niko 10]

Db, Do you use P&F charts to define targets intraday as W does in the course for his EOD analysis?

[DbPhoenix 42]

Db, Do you use P&F charts to define targets intraday as W does in the course for his EOD analysis?

 

No.

 

Db

 

...................

[tomerok 10]

Hi

 

Second bad day in a row i would like to share with you guys.

left the TL as i drew them in RT, white circles for stops, blue for targets, red short, green long.

 

Trade 1 – short, at the time I thought it's a reversal trade according to my rules, the little dip below the last swing high tricked me, in hindsight it was not even close to comply with my reversal rules… I was too quick on the trigger, stopped.

Trade 2 – price went up past the last high and tested the HOD, again I was impulsive and did not wait for a pullback, stopped.

Trade 3 – was according to reversal my rules and the resistance ahead and failure to even test the HOD gave more confidence shorting it, trend line broke and I was not happy with the speed of the pullback so I got out.

Trade 4 – price failed to LL, and bounced back up pretty fast, later on got back down below the S that triggered my long, and stopped me out.

Trade 5 – support was tested a bit and price went up (news), once my TL got breached I lost confidence and decided to bail out.

Trade 6 – I tried long again thinking it a pullback and got stopped

Trade 7 – after the drop I noticed a lot of buyers, thinking that we hit again the bottom of the narrow trading range, got long, price was slow moving, and past failed trades got me pulling out with a loss

I missed the whole ride up since my nerves were shaken from all the failed trades, I was waiting for a clear reversal

Trade 8 – even though price was slow moving decided to short because of the clear R, waited for a pullback and entered, TL tested and no clear sellers, price just slowly was drifting sideways I pulled the plug.

 

Clearly not a good day for me, (second in a row), my initial game plan was looking for good reversals at the areas of interest R @ 2821 and S @ 2778 and avoid the middle.

 

 

Tomer.

[Gringo 10]

I also had a mind boggling day. Tried something new by bringing stops closer. At the start it helped when price was quickly changing directions and I felt as if I had mastered how to handle price and was smiling. Then I started missing the moves because of stops being so close. Price would pick my stop and go in the intended direction leaving me tattered. I started to get frustrated and tried to figure out whether the trend was down or up but did widened my stops back to normal.

 

The upside move after price touched 2790 was missed by me. I was unable to decipher after the down move and so many unnecessary exits whether it was worth taking . Today's objective was to keep trading without remorse and prior result but couldn't pull the trigger again on the long after sustaining cuts earlier. I did see the price quickly rebounding from 2790 and not even coming back down and even firming up. Should have taken the long but froze. :crap:

 

Eventually with stops getting back to normal I made my way back from the hole and reduced the losses to -0.25 point. I could see this day even with missing the large up move to be at least a 5-6 points gain day without pulling that stunt with closer stops. There is a reason some space is given for price to move before bailing on a trade. The moment that space was taken away things started to unravel for my trading.

 

Today was my 3rd missed long move in a row. Every day I miss a long move that arrives after downward moves and is fast and furious and usually around 10:00. Something is not right. I'll be studying all three missed moves from the past three days tonight.

 

Quite a bit of learning in 90 mins. I was also wondering whether trading only at significant S/R might be wiser instead of all over the place. Then agin how does one know in advance which S/R might turn important in advance? Got to look at myself for improvement and keep at it. Mental problems are more glaring than technique per say.

 

Gringo

Edited October 3, 2012 by Gringo

[Niko 10]

Although this thread is mainly about NQ, I would like to post my levels for CL, as can be seen it is making new lows in the intraday, and that has forced me to go back in time to july.

 

 

The main problem I have here, is that in case of a downtrend continuation, as the levels are being defined in a 240 minute chart, they are far away from current price as to serve any useful purpose for tomorrow intraday trading.

 

Any advise here would be appreciated.

 

Regarding a reversal for tomorrow, these are the levels of S/R:

 

 

Purple lines are the levels found on the 240 min chart (shown above), the blue lines are the current 15 min chart levels, and the dashed blue lines correspond to midpoints.

Edited October 3, 2012 by Niko

[tupapa 10]

I don't see anything wrong with using the levels you have plotted on the 240m chart, you might want to use Volume At Price to plot the exact VPOC for each range.

 

If you feel like you need more levels, you could always look at July using a smaller bar interval (60m maybe) and see if you find any other price areas that traders payed attention to.

[DbPhoenix 42]

You guys are being a bit too hard on yourselves. Don't forget that reports messed up what might otherwise have been normal trading days. Today, for example, price found R where I thought it would (as posted) and provided a nice short. But before it could get to 88, a jobs report was released. This prompted a V reversal, which are not easy for the prudent trader to catch. Even so, price made a double top at 08 and provided another decent short. And then it was 1100.

 

So stick with S/R and try not to surf. The surfing always looks good in hindsight but rarely works out in RT. And don't diminish the importance of those little pre-open TRs. Today, for example, the first rally at 0940 reached the bottom of the pre-open TR. The next rally at 0951 came to exactly the same point. Ditto with the third rally at 1000. Yes, the second and third rallies were stronger than expected. But they all hit the wall at the same level. This made them good shorts anyway. Note also that the ease and speed of the reversal was likely due largely to those who shorted the initial negative reaction and quickly had to cover when $ turned against them. Takes a lot of equanimity to trade something like that. Anyone who tried to do so and escaped without a loss should be congratulated.

 

Db

[pjohnm 10]

Relying on the obvious S/R levels provided limited opportunity to participate in todays action. And the reaction to the pre mkt levels would be difficult to catch on a 1 min chart (certainly with my limited armoury).

 

The takeways for me today are:

ensure I know when major news / data is due so not to be caught out by high volatility

have no bias apart from when price opens above / below PDH / PDL

look for reversal behaviour as price approaches PDH / PDL

 

One other thing, how did I not notice what was developing in RT in the second chart? I believe it is because I have not been paying enough attention to where price opens and using it as my reference.