Trading The Wyckoff Way

[tupapa 10]

My plan for today is trading near S/R areas shown in the 30 min chart.

 

I will go short if:

 

We reject resistance at 2659

We reject the midpoint at 2645-48

We breakdown support at 2630

We reject that small pre-market hinge at 2620.5

 

I will go long if:

 

We test support at 2630

We test the midpoint at 2645-48

We breakout of resistance at 2657

We test that small pre-market hinge at 2620.5

 

I will act on any other S/R that may assert themselves and I wll "be available".

[DbPhoenix 42]

My plan for today is trading near S/R areas shown in the 30 min chart.

 

I will go short if:

 

We reject resistance at 2659

We reject the midpoint at 2645-48

We breakdown support at 2630

We reject that small pre-market hinge at 2620.5

 

I will go long if:

 

We test support at 2630

We test the midpoint at 2645-48

We breakout of resistance at 2657

We test that small pre-market hinge at 2620.5

 

I will act on any other S/R that may assert themselves and I wll "be available".

 

I suggest you consider 50 as potential R with a midpoint of 40.

 

Db

[blocp 10]

H,i this might be a bit late, but I thought I would post my trading for yesterday.

 

It's about time I contributed something to this forum having lurked for 3 years.

[DbPhoenix 42]

H,i this might be a bit late, but I thought I would post my trading for yesterday.

 

It's about time I contributed something to this forum having lurked for 3 years.

 

I was wondering when you were going to take the plunge

 

Now about the others......

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

Just a note here.

 

It appears that all of you are trying to prove that you can trade. This is understandable. However, be very cautious about putting the cart before the horse. Proving to yourselves that you understand price action is vastly more important than jumping into the swamp without your waders. One may think he's taking a shortcut, but he's only prolonging the process.

 

I strongly suggest that those who are interested in this particular thread forget about the trading and start focusing on the price action. You may find yourselves pleasantly surprised at how much easier it is to see what's going on when you're relieved of the pressure of making trading decisions. When you're ready to go on, consider the Trading in Foresight thread.

 

Db

Edited December 29, 2012 by DbPhoenix

[Gringo 10]

As strange as it may sound, I stay away from the Mids. I guess everyone has a different tolerance for turbulence.

[DbPhoenix 42]

As strange as it may sound, I stay away from the Mids. I guess everyone has a different tolerance for turbulence.

 

Hey, stranger. How's it goin'?

[PrymeTyme 10]

As strange as it may sound, I stay away from the Mids. I guess everyone has a different tolerance for turbulence.

 

 

 

Funny

 

 

since i read DBs work/posts i focus on them even more ! the markert does respect them (valuePoints) quite frequently ...

 

different strokes for different folks

[DbPhoenix 42]

A very interesting day, one of those that nobody expects, so they get dragged into it inch by inch. Just look at the angle of ascent.

 

Tupapa, in the Foresight thread, correctly pegged 57 (or 58) as the primary R level. Problem was that it was broken half an hour before the open. Not only that, but price retraced to that level twenty minutes later. But now what? We opened well above that level, then retraced well below it. The cool, calm, and collected trader might have noticed that price found S at that little congestion that formed 45m before the open, at 54.

 

First RET, however, doesn't occur until 59, 5m later. Then 64-65, a few minutes after that.The DL is broken shortly after 10:00, but price consolidates rather than drop. There is then a straight shot to 76, another break of the DL a few minutes later, then price goes nowhere until 11:00.

 

Not a difficult day if one could stay calm, and worth up to 14pts, which isn't awful for 90m.

 

Db

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

Funny

 

 

since i read DBs work/posts i focus on them even more ! the markert does respect them (valuePoints) quite frequently ...

 

different strokes for different folks

 

Indeed. See the post I just made to the 90m thread.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

And the ES, for those who continue to struggle with it. Just as easy, if not easier because of the multiple entries. One entry, one exit, 6pts, or at worst, 5.

 

Db

 

[tupapa 10]

A very interesting day, one of those that nobody expects, so they get dragged into it inch by inch. Just look at the angle of ascent....

 

That first retracement would've been the best entry and in hindsight it seems so obvious... in real time I had my doubts that stenmed from:

 

1- Price broke the demand line at 9:35, decisively.

2- Price made a lower low.

 

So when price approached resistance at 2658 and that retracement occurred, I only placed a sell stop order (red dot), anticipating a lower high.

 

I believe the correct thing, would've been placing both a buy stop above R and a sell stop below the retracement.

[tomerok 10]

What do all the arrows and "entry" notations refer to? Perhaps you could narrate what you did and where and why you did it.

 

Db

 

Db,

the arrows and entry notations are real-time trades marked by my trading software.

the circles (green,red,blue,grey) are the trades i marked for my self after the trading day is over.

I feel i'm wrong in grasping price action in real time so i wanted to share the real-time price action analysis and post (after hours...) analysis.

 

i've used the original picture and added a number to point out areas of interest (at least for me)

 

1 - I noticed the pre-market resistance, price tested it , big sellers in the tape and price does not react to them as it reacts to big buyers,that is a long which i also took in real time

 

2 - as price kept going up i drew the trend line and once we got up to point 2 price stalled for 2 candles, that is when i moved my stop in real time, clearly i was wrong and that was only a pullback, got stopped and i drew the second trend line.

 

3 - we had a relatively long pullback (relative to the previous up move) and i was looking for a change in direction, when price completed it's pullback and continued it's up, i drew the third trend line.

 

that's when i decided to sit on my hands and wait for something i recognize before i enter any more trades.

 

4 - I noticed price tested support for the 3rd time and was on alert for a short if we break that support.

 

5 - that is a short once support got broken, in real time i was not feeling comfortable taking it because i thought it's a shake out.

 

6 - I plotted a trend line, and because we had a large move down couple of bar ago (the "shakeout") i looked to enter short past/below the lowest point, this would tell me price is still headed down, that decision was taken in real-time.

 

7 - we broke the first trend line just as i entered short in step 6, i started to lose my confidence in the trade, i plotted the second trend line down, and that is when i completely lost my confidence in the move down and moved my stop which was taken.

 

when i review the PA at the end of the day i could see i was clearly wrong to exit, no swing high were broken, just the trend lines, price was just slow on getting down nothing more.... (at least that was what i told myself )

 

8 - as price marked lower i decided to go short again since the prior bar was with a bigger thrust then the previous ones and not wait for a pullback, again the trend line was breached and i started to lose confidence in the trade, once again i plotted another trend line down and once it broke i remembered the last trade outcome and decided to give this one more room to breath, i decided to place the stop on the swing high (just below the 7 figure) and got stopped

 

9 - when i got stopped i felt i was not in sync with what is going on and decided to stop for the day.

 

when i did my post analysis for the day i realized i was "stuck" in the smaller picture and could have played it very differently (the colored circles note just that.)

 

2 trades for the entire day....

the opening trade near figure 1, with the exception of not getting out only if a swing low is breached (thus risking some profit already achieved), or only getting out if a "major trend line" is breached.

 

the second trade would be a short near figure 5 as we breach support and trail the stop after every swing high, exit is near figure 9.

 

Tomer.

[DbPhoenix 42]

2 - as price kept going up i drew the trend line and once we got up to point 2 price stalled for 2 candles, that is when i moved my stop in real time, clearly i was wrong and that was only a pullback, got stopped and i drew the second trend line.

 

Don't move your stop (see my earlier post). If you believe an exit is necessary, then exit. Stay in control. But also be willing to give price room. Drill down to a smaller bar interval if you can so that you can see the wave lengths. You may see the recovery earlier. But, in any case, unless price is literally plunging, give buyers a chance.

 

5 - that is a short once support got broken, in real time i was not feeling comfortable taking it because i thought it's a shake out.

 

Doesn't matter. What's important is not whether or not it's a shakeout but that you recognize the possibility. By doing so, you can be prepared to get out and take the opposite side of the trade. So, take it, and if it is a shakeout, get out immediately. Nothing lost exc maybe a tick or two. Then re-assess.

 

7 - we broke the first trend line just as i entered short in step 6, i started to lose my confidence in the trade, i plotted the second trend line down, and that is when i completely lost my confidence in the move down and moved my stop which was taken.

 

Again, not enough room. The more you are into profit, the more room you can give, unless you just abdicate responsibility for the trade entirely and stop managing it. Don't freak when price seems to move against you. Assess it. How intent is the move? Is it desperate? Or is there real power behind it?

 

8 - as price marked lower i decided to go short again since the prior bar was with a bigger thrust then the previous ones and not wait for a pullback, again the trend line was breached and i started to lose confidence in the trade, once again i plotted another trend line down and once it broke i remembered the last trade outcome and decided to give this one more room to breath, i decided to place the stop on the swing high (just below the 7 figure) and got stopped

 

Ditto.

 

9 - when i got stopped i felt i was not in sync with what is going on and decided to stop for the day.

 

Not a bad idea. You can't think clearly with all these thoughts swimming around in your head. If you're not in top form, don't trade. If anything, just watch.

 

This is far better than you think it is. Again, don't move your stops. If you believe you need to exit, then exit. But don't just move your stops and give everything up to fate. Remain in charge. Second, give the trade room. If necessary, drill down to a smaller bar interval to get a clearer idea of what exactly is going on in the trading. Third, whenever price starts going "against" you, LOOK TO THE LEFT. In fact, you ought to print this on a Post-It and stick it to your monitor. In nearly every case, you'll find the price is finding support ( or resistance) somewhere. Seeing this will give you the confidence to stay in the trade. And if that support (or resistance) is broken, THEN you can exit the trade and re-assess. Demand and Supply Lines do not provide support or resistance; they only provide indications of changes in the stride, which may end up being temporary and irrelevant to the overall trend. Don't freak simply because one is broken. Those breaks should only elicit a "hmm" and prompt you to LOOK TO THE LEFT.

 

Db

Edited August 5, 2012 by DbPhoenix
Link added

[blocp 10]

db thanks for post no.60 ( a mac keyboard doesn't seem to have a hash key, strange) it makes sense I had already tried to watch the tick chart on numerous occasions but having seen the charts on this thread and reading back over some of wyckoffs writings over last week and the weekend it the price movements are becoming slightly clearer for now.

 

any way here are my thoughts from friday, using the notes made live during the trading session.

Edited August 6, 2012 by DbPhoenix
Link added

[tomerok 10]

Don't move your stop (see my earlier post). If you believe an exit is necessary, then exit. Stay in control. But also be willing to give price room. Drill down to a smaller bar interval if you can so that you can see the wave lengths. You may see the recovery earlier. But, in any case, unless price is literally plunging, give buyers a chance.

 

 

 

Doesn't matter. What's important is not whether or not it's a shakeout but that you recognize the possibility. By doing so, you can be prepared to get out and take the opposite side of the trade. So, take it, and if it is a shakeout, get out immediately. Nothing lost exc maybe a tick or two. Then re-assess.

 

 

 

Again, not enough room. The more you are into profit, the more room you can give, unless you just abdicate responsibility for the trade entirely and stop managing it. Don't freak when price seems to move against you. Assess it. How intent is the move? Is it desperate? Or is there real power behind it?

 

 

 

Ditto.

 

 

 

Not a bad idea. You can't think clearly with all these thoughts swimming around in your head. If you're not in top form, don't trade. If anything, just watch.

 

This is far better than you think it is. Again, don't move your stops. If you believe you need to exit, then exit. But don't just move your stops and give everything up to fate. Remain in charge. Second, give the trade room. If necessary, drill down to a smaller bar interval to get a clearer idea of what exactly is going on in the trading. Third, whenever price starts going "against" you, LOOK TO THE LEFT. In fact, you ought to print this on a Post-It and stick it to your monitor. In nearly every case, you'll find the price is finding support ( or resistance) somewhere. Seeing this will give you the confidence to stay in the trade. And if that support (or resistance) is broken, THEN you can exit the trade and re-assess. Demand and Supply Lines do not provide support or resistance; they only provide indications of changes in the stride, which may end up being temporary and irrelevant to the overall trend. Don't freak simply because one is broken. Those breaks should only elicit a "hmm" and prompt you to LOOK TO THE LEFT.

 

Db

 

Hi Db.

Thank you for time, i tried to practice your advice today in real time but failed (it will take time....), so i won't bother you with the trade i took today, instead i would like to share a thought i had in my post-analysis.

 

I realize that a broken trend line is not a trigger for exit, it's more of a signal to start looking for any other signs to invalidate the original cause for entering the trade in the first place.

I prefer to get out when both trigger line and swing low are broken, that signals for me (not including tape reading) that something is wrong and support had just gone away for now.

 

Today I noticed some past resistance around 2692, price tested it 3-4 times and then a swing low was broken, if i were in a trade that is where i would get out (following the rule i outlined before), clearly that was not case today, i tried replaying the data and could not find something to signal me to hang on.

 

I'm guessing i'm stepping into the zone in which you have to "know" the special characteristics of the instrument you trade which only long hours of screen time will buy

am i missing something?

 

 

Attached is the narrated price action as i would have taken it.

 

Thank You.

 

Tomer.

[jaygo 10]

To keep the ball rolling.

 

Entry based on that quick rejection of lower prices, showed up well on the 30 sec chart.

 

Early exit perhaps. Although did not feel comfortable with the velocity at which the demand line was breached.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I'm guessing i'm stepping into the zone in which you have to "know" the special characteristics of the instrument you trade which only long hours of screen time will buy

am i missing something?

 

Rather than address your concerns, I'll suggest that you look back at post 60. You're trying to do two things at once: (1) understand the price movement and (2) trade it. By doing so, you will likely, instead of accelerating the process, slow it down. You will lose nothing by taking a few days, if not a couple of weeks, and focus on the price action, exclusive of what you might or might not do about it. You may find that, after doing so, the trading phase makes much more sense and goes faster. It's difficult to be objective about the price action when you're worried about what it's doing to your trade.

 

Consider also that 11:00 has come and gone by the time price breaks through 92. Do you really want to screw around with this for two more hours just for 8 more points?

 

Feel free to come back to this later if you want to do so.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

To keep the ball rolling.

 

Entry based on that quick rejection of lower prices, showed up well on the 30 sec chart.

 

Early exit perhaps. Although did not feel comfortable with the velocity at which the demand line was breached.

 

This was one of those days when you look at the trades you think you're supposed to be taking and you think that can't possibly be right. But price doesn't go sailing every day. And if it's squeezed in a narrow range all morning, take the opportunity to go do something else. You're trading, not doing penance.

 

Db

[tomerok 10]

Rather than address your concerns, I'll suggest that you look back at post 60. You're trying to do two things at once: (1) understand the price movement and (2) trade it. By doing so, you will likely, instead of accelerating the process, slow it down. You will lose nothing by taking a few days, if not a couple of weeks, and focus on the price action, exclusive of what you might or might not do about it. You may find that, after doing so, the trading phase makes much more sense and goes faster. It's difficult to be objective about the price action when you're worried about what it's doing to your trade.

 

Consider also that 11:00 has come and gone by the time price breaks through 92. Do you really want to screw around with this for two more hours just for 8 more points?

 

Feel free to come back to this later if you want to do so.

 

Db

 

Point Taken.

 

Thank You.

 

Tomer.

[PrymeTyme 10]

If sometihng literally screams at you to take it .. then u better do !!!

 

 

if all stars align .. as seen on FDAX 15min today ...

 

 

1st. Uptrend

2nd. bigger upbars+vol = buying pressure ie strenght

3rd. weak reactions

4th. resistance gets support , wich breaks into range again but support holds.

5th volume pics up on the rallie

6th volume and bars decrease on reaction and tests the midpoint of the range ,wich holds thus creates a higher low ,market also rallied back up to close above the demand line,forming a pinbar

 

IE. 6 reasons to risk a long entry above the high of the PinBar

[DbPhoenix 42]

6th volume and bars decrease on reaction and tests the midpoint of the range ,wich holds thus creates a higher low ,market also rallied back up to close above the demand line,forming a pinbar

 

No pinbars in Wyckoff, but thanks for the chart:)

 

Db

[tomerok 10]

Hi

I would like to share my observation on yesterday PA on NQ

I was taking notes as price moved and drew notations on my chart as i noticed things happen.

notes were taken from my log.

 

09:22- pre-session, up trend, coming close to long tern bull trend channel resistence.

09:27 - several big sellers (>10 lot) on tape, we break S trend line.

09:32 - price tested lows and highs without any decision...

09:33 - Lots of big buyers (>10 lot) (it looked like price is going to jump up)

09:35 - the response for the buyers was disappointing (i was expecting a better thrust because of the big buyers speed and volume)

09:39 - we are testing the pre-session trend line support again,

09:41 - at that point i was suspicious because i'm seeing big buyers at the lows but still price is not making higher highs or testing the highs again

09:46 - even though it's slow going up , there is a clear support forming , so the line with least resistance is up for now.

09:48 - price did not make it to HOD, lots and lots of big sellers, price drops fast right through pre-session support line, it's seems like support vaporized.

09:50 - still big sellers, but without success!, price is holding

09:52 - tried to refresh my view, looked back and tried to view things on a wider scale, the PA high and low looked like "somebody" or "something" shaked things up a little bit and the trading range got wider but without any real direction yet, looked like a "confused" market.

10:02 - (i tried a 30 sec chart to see if things will make sense over there) no big buyers no volume but slowly we returned to the up side, looked like an elastic band is slowly contracting to it's natural shape again

10:06-10:22 - price was caught in a 3 pt. trading range with no real direction

10:23 - finally we broke to the up side and hit the long range resistence of the long term trend channel,

10:46 Resistance is holding i notice LH, no volume to the up side, but also nothing to down side

 

i hope my post is helpful, and would appreciate any comment.

 

Tomer.

[DbPhoenix 42]

10:02 - (i tried a 30 sec chart to see if things will make sense over there) no big buyers no volume but slowly we returned to the up side, looked like an elastic band is slowly contracting to it's natural shape again

 

Good stuff. As for the volume and the buyers and the movement, the message here is that buyers are able to move price up without much resistance. Sellers, in other words, don't care. The rubber will meet the road, however, when price reaches R. What happens then? Do sellers re-enter to push price back down to S? What do buyers do? Are they aggressive enough to overcome this effort and push price higher? If so, volume will increase.

 

Db

[goodoboy 10]

 

Anything having to do with candles or candle patterns.

 

Db

 

Hello Db,

 

Just re-reading your post again. Why do you say anything having to do with candles or candles patterns? I don't use candles alot, but I know of them.