Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

hello community

 

I am new to this website and forum, but I try to contribute

 

anybody knows tradingview.com?

 

you can add an "Elliotwave Indicator" to any Assett in any Timeframe

 

this should be an Addition to Wyckoff, as in IMHO Volume and Elliotwave

should give accurate Trade set-ups

 

what Volume Indicator do you use?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's my first real time (sim) shot at this from yesterday. Some good trades, yet some very bad which in hind-site have me wondering "what was I thinking"?

 

I need to work on patience, letting the trades better set-up, and not letting fear/greed cause exiting too early.

 

Charts included: Prep on 30 minute chart, 1 minute chart, and 1 minute chart with BracketTrader stats shown.

Snagit0012.thumb.jpg.72cd0effe77f41cba0b127d609d7fc23.jpg

Snagit0020.thumb.jpg.c66137d46df6f27771439340a369b0bf.jpg

Snagit0019.thumb.jpg.924cf19e2b0178014bb9c967df38372e.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Here's my first real time (sim) shot at this from yesterday. Some good trades, yet some very bad which in hind-site have me wondering "what was I thinking"?

 

I need to work on patience, letting the trades better set-up, and not letting fear/greed cause exiting too early.

 

Yes, some of these are less than good. Before I put in my two cents, could you articulate your plan? I assume you're trying what has been interpreted as the "Trading in 90m Plan (my half-dozen or so charts earlier on)", though I didn't intend for it to be. There is wiggle room, after all.

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today's effort.

1) sold short after rejection of R at 2655+/-. Was happy with the way I managed the trade.

 

I was then tempted to go long above the 9:54 bar at 2645.25 but then didn't think a significant enough bottom had been put in so I passed.

 

2) I normally wouldn't trade through 10AM numbers if potentially significant, but I did for this exercise. The 10:00 AM bar showed bullish action off the test of the 9:48 low and I bought its break on the next bar. Stopped out on next bar.

 

3) After 2) stopped out on the 10:03 bar I was watching the tick chart and I assumed price was rejecting 2640.25 as R on jabs up from below. I sold short to be stopped out two bars later.

 

4) Short on break of S.

 

5) Long. I exited early after R at 2644 was rejected and then the break of S at 2640 (which was below the half-way point further indicating weakness).

 

edit: DB's post above came in while I was working on this so I hadn't seen it yet.

Yes I was utilizing the basic approach per your examples at the start of this thread.

.

Snagit0022.thumb.jpg.aba66c3d0bdb735d63f29c524153c9f5.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
edit: DB's post above came in while I was working on this so I hadn't seen it yet.

 

Yes I was utilizing the basic approach per your examples at the start of this thread.

 

The charts I posted early in the thread were intended to illustrate at least some of Wyckoff's more important principles. Those who have studied the Forum and Wyckoff's course will, I hope, understand what I was doing and why.

 

I never intended, however, for the trades to illustrate a "plan". A plan must be created by the trader using criteria which he has tested and found to be reliable. If he hasn't determined the criteria and tested them, he won't be able to create a plan on which they are based, much less follow it. And if he doesn't or can't follow it, there's no point in doing it. If he forces himself to follow it anyway, or at least pretend to be doing so, then the emotions which would otherwise be immaterial will dominate his trading.

 

The point, then, is to understand the principles and guidelines and to develop a trading plan based on them. If my and others' illustrations help, great. But there's no way that anyone is going to be able to copy what atto or head or cows or wj or I or any other contributor has done or is doing and become a successful trader as a result. This Forum will help most beginners leapfrog over most other beginners, but the grunt work must still be done.

 

As for your charts, I'll work on annotating them, but it may take a while.

 

Db

 

Edit: Didn't take as long as I thought.

 

I see now what you were doing on your first trade. I don't know that I would have taken it, given all the preceding clutter, but it appears to me to be legit. My only note here on this first upswing is not to be so tight on your demand line. If you haven't created and tested a plan around this, I can understand why you'd be fearful. But it is sim, after all, and since the bar that breaks the DL does not drop below the bars two and three bars back, there's no reason to panic. And by giving it a little room, you avoid the stopout and having to re-enter later and taking a loss on that later long (3).

 

I assume the arrows refer to the bar you're entering on rather than the entry point itself.

 

I assume you know there should be no long at 5. You're still traveling down.

 

Too tight on the DL after 6. It's holding just fine, and even makes a higher high. That also prevents you from having to enter again at 7 and lose on the SO. You'd also avoid being late on the short (three bars).

 

I don't see a long on that last upswing. Is that correct?

Edited by DbPhoenix

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quote from Db:

"I see now what you were doing on your first trade. I don't know that I would have taken it, given all the preceding clutter, but it appears to me to be legit. My only note here on this first upswing is not to be so tight on your demand line. If you haven't created and tested a plan around this, I can understand why you'd be fearful. But it is sim, after all, and since the bar that breaks the DL does not drop below the bars two and three bars back, there's no reason to panic. And by giving it a little room, you avoid the stopout and having to re-enter later and taking a loss on that later long (3).

 

I assume the arrows refer to the bar you're entering on rather than the entry point itself.

 

I assume you know there should be no long at 5. You're still traveling down.

 

Too tight on the DL after 6. It's holding just fine, and even makes a higher high. That also prevents you from having to enter again at 7 and lose on the SO. You'd also avoid being late on the short (three bars).

 

I don't see a long on that last upswing. Is that correct? "

 

I assume you are referencing my chart for 7/31. The arrows do attempt to show the trade locations and. Green = long, red = short, blue = exit, black = stop-loss.

 

Arrow for trade 2 (long) is where the sim showed the fill and I put the arrow there to be consistent with the BracketTrader log.

 

 

Regarding trade 1, I was probably biased to sell short based on the downtrend immediately before the open. The 9:29 bar broke the Supply Line right at the confluence of my 2639 S/R line, but then the 9:30 bar plunged back down through both lines into my sell stop I placed there for this possibility. I assumed this event would prove rejection of S at 2639.

 

Trade 2, yes I definitely jumped the gun on the exit.

 

Trade 5 - don't know what I was thinking, yes it was still going down without any evidence of a bottom yet.

 

Re: last upswing you are correct. I let it get away waiting for a pull-back that didn't occur. The little double bottom with the inside bar didn't seem substantial enough to trade a reversal. I need to review and test these to see.

 

Thanks for your comments and help.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Re: last upswing you are correct. I let it get away waiting for a pull-back that didn't occur. The little double bottom with the inside bar didn't seem substantial enough to trade a reversal. I need to review and test these to see.

 

What does a 30s or 15s chart look like at that point?

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What does a 30s or 15s chart look like at that point?

 

Db

Good point. Going even deeper, the attached tick line chart (with zig-zag indicator to highlight the waves) shows a good opportunity on the 10:41 and 10:42 bar.

Snagit0025.thumb.jpg.6c3f2cab55f57a8ebf17d68bce7c206c.jpg

Edited by 20814md
correction

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Good point. Going even deeper, the attached tick line chart (with zig-zag indicator to highlight the waves) shows a good opportunity on the 10:41 and 10:42 bar.

 

I'm not surprised. Wyckoff obviously did not use intraday bar charts. He used the tape. The tick chart is a visual equivalent. So getting over one's fear of it can lead to some new insights.

 

When a range has been established, as here, one often has to take his trades at S & R, and if the range is narrow, he can often wind up not entering until price is very near the opposite side of the range. This leads to a lot of BE.

 

However, if the trader opens up the bar, he will often find his test or his retracement and his entry, an entry which is invisible to everyone else. Doing so also enables a very tight stop.

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2) I normally wouldn't trade through 10AM numbers if potentially significant, but I did for this exercise. The 10:00 AM bar showed bullish action off the test of the 9:48 low and I bought its break on the next bar. Stopped out on next bar.

 

How "bullish action"?

 

3) After 2) stopped out on the 10:03 bar I was watching the tick chart and I assumed price was rejecting 2640.25 as R on jabs up from below. I sold short to be stopped out two bars later.

 

The short wasn't incorrect, but it was late, as is your short at 4.

 

Take care with over-thinking. You appear to be doing a lot of in-the-moment interpretation of the "meaning" of whatever it is you're looking at. Forget about what it all means. Either a bar or swing point is higher or lower or it isn't. Either price rejects a particular level or it doesn't (you can modify this slightly by the extent of the rejection and the rapidity, if any, of the recovery). Don't try to outsmart yourself or your plan. This is what very many traders do, and they in effect tie their shoelaces together.

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yesterdays 90 min trading.. I will share some thoughts and questions later on.

 

 

I didn't get time to post anything yesterday, but these are my thoughts after Mondays 90 min NQ trading.

 

Trade 1 Exited to soon as has already been discussed by both of you.

 

 

Trades 4 and 5 were late trades that I should've avoided, and for future trading I am making a note: I shall not chase a trade if I miss the entry, since this only leads to stop outs and breakevens.

 

The correct entry was at 15:12 and here is an instance where volume was indicating a reversal:

 

At 15:04 Climactic volume

 

15:08 Lower volume and no progress in price and at 15:09 price breaks the supply line.

 

And all of this is happening around 2636, an important support level.

 

 

DBphoenix, a few weeks ago you wrote that there is no point in using futures volume since it is notoriously unreliable, specialy on small bar intervals. Is there any point on keeping the bars and performing the sort of analysis described above?

 

 

I guess what we are trying to do is what Wyckoff describes in Tape Reading and Active Trading:

 

"In studying the distance and duration of each wave, if the buying waves are longer in duration and travel further than the selling waves, we get an indication that the immediate trend is upwards... Whenever the buying and selling waves seem to offset each other and no material strenght or weakness is indicated, the immediate trend is in doubt. Our position should then be neutral."

31-07vol.thumb.png.78679f00da44d22034fe8e20186d4f12.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Db Quote" Originally Posted by 20814md »

------ The 10:00 AM bar showed bullish action off the test of the 9:48 low and I bought its break on the next bar. Stopped out on next bar. -------

 

How "bullish action"?

 

As shown on my chart, the 10:00 bar pushed down 3 ticks below the 9:48 swing low and ~ 1 tick below the S level of 2640.25. Not finding sellers price respected the S level and bounced back to test the R shown as 2644 pushing through by one tick. As it pulled back I set a buy stop 1 tick higher yet such that if there was another higher push through R I would be long and the R was presumably rejected.

 

This premise was wrong and the 2640 level below needed more testing further developing a trading range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
DBphoenix, a few weeks ago you wrote that there is no point in using futures volume since it is notoriously unreliable, specialy on small bar intervals. Is there any point on keeping the bars and performing the sort of analysis described above?

 

I guess what we are trying to do is what Wyckoff describes in Tape Reading and Active Trading:

 

"In studying the distance and duration of each wave, if the buying waves are longer in duration and travel further than the selling waves, we get an indication that the immediate trend is upwards... Whenever the buying and selling waves seem to offset each other and no material strength or weakness is indicated, the immediate trend is in doubt. Our position should then be neutral."

 

You probably answered your own question with the W quote.

 

As the years roll by, I increasingly find that anything other than price is a distraction. But I go into volume and candles and bars and all that in my posts and in my book because the only alternative is to tell people to start over from the beginning, and only one out of a thousand is going to do that. Eventually, those who adopt this approach reach pretty much the same conclusions I have, but they have to do it in their own time by their own routes.

 

If you follow price in real time (and very few message board posters do, regardless of what they claim), you can see the surges and the counters, you can see when activity is trailing off and becoming dull. Even if volume is plotted, you find yourself paying less and less attention to it. If anything, the TICKQ/TICK is a better sign of flagging interest -- or the appearance of flagging interest -- than volume. Big money may be able to fake the book, and they may even be able to manipulate volume, but they can't fake a transaction, and that's all that counts.

 

Beginners are addicted to indicators and bars. This makes them low-hanging fruit for vendors. But since few beginners trade to make money, my making this a crusade of some sort is no different than trying to teach a pig to dance: it doesn't accomplish anything and annoys the pig.

 

An answer that's far longer than it needs to be, but when I read beginners' posts on other threads, I can't help but feel that they'd get far more enjoyment out of their money if they just set it on fire.

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Db Quote" Originally Posted by 20814md »

------ The 10:00 AM bar showed bullish action off the test of the 9:48 low and I bought its break on the next bar. Stopped out on next bar. -------

 

How "bullish action"?

 

As shown on my chart, the 10:00 bar pushed down 3 ticks below the 9:48 swing low and ~ 1 tick below the S level of 2640.25. Not finding sellers price respected the S level and bounced back to test the R shown as 2644 pushing through by one tick. As it pulled back I set a buy stop 1 tick higher yet such that if there was another higher push through R I would be long and the R was presumably rejected.

 

This premise was wrong and the 2640 level below needed more testing further developing a trading range.

 

Even if all of this were accurate, however, it would not do to buy off the "climax" low but rather wait for the test. When that came two bars later, price made a lower low. Not good. A better test came at 10:11, and this would have put you on the correct side of the market.

 

Look at all of this using a smaller bar interval and see what you think.

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to point out that R is at 2656-58 and the midpoint is 2577-79. The trader who isn't overeager to throw his money away could do worse than sit back and wait. Maybe with a doughnut.

 

Db

 

Edit: Nice little congestion bet 03 and 10.

 

Edit: Pushing against this morning's swing low.

 

Edit: Price choked off that SB, possibly because of all the R, but it's behaving as it should.

 

Edit: Running into multiple though minor congestions.

 

Edit: Tentative DL break.

 

Edit: Possibly finding S at the SB.

 

Edit: Test of R and HH.

 

Edit: Another break of the DL. No nearby S.

 

Edit: Another test and a marginally HH. Quick failure. Compare to previous.

 

Edit: Price finds S at secondary DL.

 

Edit: Sellers still finding buyers.

 

Edit: Tempting to speculate on what buyers are thinking or sellers are thinking, but what difference does it make? That can only create bias.

 

Edit: Price approaching secondary DL. SL showing weakness.

 

Edit: Possibly finding S at last congestion.

 

Edit: Squeeze between bottom of congestion zone and SL.

 

Edit: Breaks the SL but finds R at the top of the old congestion zone. Oh, the drama.

 

Edit: S/R becomes lateral.

 

Edit: A Thrust and Whoa!

 

Edit: And it's 11:00.

 

I made a conscious though difficult effort here not to call trades but rather to describe what I saw, I hope as objectively as possible, at least for me. What anyone else does/did with that information is/was entirely up to them.

 

Post 11:00, FYI: Price finds S at that 10:00 RET, then works its way down to the prior SB. A non-Wyckoff observation: H&S fans will note that this completes the target.

 

Nothing between here and where we started, exc what traders come up with in the meantime.

Edited by DbPhoenix

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just to point out that R is at 2656-58 and the midpoint is 2577-79. The trader who isn't overeager to throw his money away could do worse than sit back and wait. Maybe with a doughnut.

 

Db

 

 

So presumably, this is the example of a day when, even though a trader might have a plan, he should "be available" and leave the doughnut on the side?

 

 

That trading range at the opening is a good example of accumulation, with a shakeout right? I didn't take the entry after the Skaeout, as it required a very wide stop.

 

Instead I looked inside the 1m bars using the 5 sec chart and placed my buystop above

that small congestion at 14:35.

 

I have indicated my stop loss with a white dot, do you consider this a valid level for the stop loss?

5aa711251101f_02-08trade1.thumb.png.259ca5f0c58e4aa43a4ca1d56e09df3e.png

5aa7112515741_02-085secentry.png.23413ae633e03d885286e8d8ec52e019.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So presumably, this is the example of a day when, even though a trader might have a plan, he should "be available" and leave the doughnut on the side?

 

Exactly.

 

That trading range at the opening is a good example of accumulation, with a shakeout right? I didn't take the entry after the Skaeout, as it required a very wide stop.

 

Not really. There is no accumulation in futures since there is no float. But this is an argument I don't want to get involved in anymore (like "volume" in Forex). But it doesn't make any difference anyway. What matters is the failure of the breakdown and the subsequent breakout. What one calls it and the reasons behind it -- if there are any -- are irrelevant.

 

 

Instead I looked inside the 1m bars using the 5 sec chart and placed my buystop above

that small congestion at 14:35.

 

I have indicated my stop loss with a white dot, do you consider this a valid level for the stop loss?

 

Yes and no. And interesting you should bring this up as its been on my mind lately.

 

The purpose of a stop is not to protect you from loss, exc the catastrophic kind that can occur when the server goes down or the internet connection is lost or the power goes out. Too many (all?) beginners place stops as if they were sacrificial offerings to the trading gods, and if the trade begins to grow wrong, they wash their hands of the responsibility and leave the outcome up to the stop.

 

This is nonsense.

 

The cover stop is there for the reasons I gave above. It has nothing to do with the management of the trade per se. If and when the trader perceives that the trade is going wrong, using whatever criteria seem best to him, he then exits the trade. And that's it (exc for cancelling the cover stop). Where you've placed your "stop" here is a fine place to exit if things stop going your way. But the cover stop should be much lower.

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Yes and no. And interesting you should bring this up as its been on my mind lately.

 

The purpose of a stop is not to protect you from loss, exc the catastrophic kind that can occur when the server goes down or the internet connection is lost or the power goes out. Too many (all?) beginners place stops as if they were sacrificial offerings to the trading gods, and if the trade begins to grow wrong, they wash their hands of the responsibility and leave the outcome up to the stop.

 

This is nonsense.

 

The cover stop is there for the reasons I gave above. It has nothing to do with the management of the trade per se. If and when the trader perceives that the trade is going wrong, using whatever criteria seem best to him, he then exits the trade. And that's it (exc for cancelling the cover stop). Where you've placed your "stop" here is a fine place to exit if things stop going your way. But the cover stop should be much lower.

 

Db

 

This reminds me of the Phantom of the Pits rule number 1 "The price action must confirm the position or get out quick" and it is something that I will implement in my plan once I have a well defined the criteria.

 

So in this case I would have a cover stop, that would protect me from catastrophe, presumably below the last low at 2600. And I would also have a "mental stop" that would make me exit the trade if price invalidates the premise for the trade (at 2609, the white dot on my chart).

 

What is the point of having a "catastrophe stop" and a mental stop? If a catastrophe happened and I lost my connection, wouldn't I want to exit the trade at 2609 anyway, since this level invalidates the premise for the trade?

 

I hope I've made myself clear...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What is the point of having a "catastrophe stop" and a mental stop? If a catastrophe happened and I lost my connection, wouldn't I want to exit the trade at 2609 anyway, since this level invalidates the premise for the trade?

 

Yes, but you wouldn't be able to since you have no connection.

 

This may become clearer to you if you ever live somewhere that loses power regularly and frequently.

 

But aside from all that, I wouldn't even use the term "mental stop". You're exiting the trade because the criteria for the trade no longer exist. To do otherwise is to invoke hope, and once that's done, fear is waiting behind the door.

 

For example, look at the ES this morning. This is what I call a "duh long", much clearer than the NQ long and visible to at least the 1m and 5m people. If this had been taken and the trader used 62 as his "mental stop", would he then exit the trade at the test at 10:04? Or would he wait to see how buyers reacted to that test? If his ego weren't involved, I hope he'd focus on the activity rather than on whether he was right or wrong in taking the trade in the first place. If so, he'd stay in and have an easy 6pt ride to the top (somewhat shy of the 35pt ride in the NQ). IOW, are traders behaving as anticipated or are they not? If they're not, why stay in the trade?

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Db.

Started reading what you mentioned at post #27 (actually expanding it even more as i'm going through the material).

my first reaction to the ideas and theory was to get rid of everything.

got rid of the Range bars,MA's,Pace of tape,MACD, and multiple time frame view when trading, decided to leave a 1 minute OHLC bar and 2 time and sales windows (1 filtered for large blocks)

quite frankly after a couple of hours it feels easier and more natural to look at daily price action.

i think my next step is also get rid of my daily routine of long to short term TA in which i try to guess the daily trend, it seems to me that price goes and will go which direction it find suitable (who am i to try and predict it).

also i'm trying to get rid of "colors" on my chart and time and sales (bid/ask), so i can focus only on price.

I wanted to share my post market analysis (round plot) and real-time trades (NT7 plot), plotted both on the same chart

 

 

Trade 1

I got long because R (from pre-session) was clearly broken after price tested LOD

In real time i played safe since the up thrust was over and i was looking for profit taking. clearly in post analysis i could have stayed longer and should have waited for a decent pullback (reaction).

 

Trade 2

After we broke the up trend line and a decent pullback (reaction completed), short as price goes below the decent reaction low

Target is there because currently i'm trying to exit 2-4 tick beyond the last reaction high/low

I left the trend lines as i draw them in real time, clearly i was stuck in the macro picture and plotting multiple trend lines as price went down after 11:00 that's why i did not take trade 2.

you can see that in real time played it differently, i was not so sure with the PA going on

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=30314&stc=1&d=1343999967

5aa711256c7c8_NQ09-12(1Min)02_08_2012.thumb.jpg.ea794265f7e7c7a869815c349338a6ac.jpg

Edited by DbPhoenix
Added image

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes, but you wouldn't be able to since you have no connection.

 

This may become clearer to you if you ever live somewhere that loses power regularly and frequently.

 

But aside from all that, I wouldn't even use the term "mental stop". You're exiting the trade because the criteria for the trade no longer exist. To do otherwise is to invoke hope, and once that's done, fear is waiting behind the door.

 

For example, look at the ES this morning. This is what I call a "duh long", much clearer than the NQ long and visible to at least the 1m and 5m people. If this had been taken and the trader used 62 as his "mental stop", would he then exit the trade at the test at 10:04? Or would he wait to see how buyers reacted to that test? If his ego weren't involved, I hope he'd focus on the activity rather than on whether he was right or wrong in taking the trade in the first place. If so, he'd stay in and have an easy 6pt ride to the top (somewhat shy of the 35pt ride in the NQ). IOW, are traders behaving as anticipated or are they not? If they're not, why stay in the trade?

 

Db

 

I was looking at that trade on the ES and I have to be honest with you, I would've exited the trade at the re-test because of fear.

 

I would fear a collapse in price that would immobilize me and take out my "catastrophe stop" with a huge loss that I couldn't tolerate.

 

The following chart depicts that particular scenario that I most fear. It is because of this, that I always keep a narrow stop (3 NQ points max), I just don't want to lose more than that.

 

So is this fear rational or completely unjustified and how do other traders deal with it?

5aa7112572ef7_ESStop.thumb.png.429e47428fd389fd3e4a4000f34631e9.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I was looking at that trade on the ES and I have to be honest with you, I would've exited the trade at the re-test because of fear.

 

I would fear a collapse in price that would immobilize me and take out my "catastrophe stop" with a huge loss that I couldn't tolerate.

 

The following chart depicts that particular scenario that I most fear. It is because of this, that I always keep a narrow stop (3 NQ points max), I just don't want to lose more than that.

 

So is this fear rational or completely unjustified and how do other traders deal with it?

 

That price drops more than a few ticks on the retest doesn't mean that you have to allow it to fall, in this case, 6pts. If the test bar doesn't hold and buyers don't come in, get out.

 

If one focuses on price movement and the reasons for it and causes of it, the fear disappears after awhile. Fear stems in part from a belief that the market is irrational, but if one understands demand and supply and can detect the fear and greed of others, then he has much less trouble keeping himself pulled together.

 

Focusing on indicators, on the other hand, has the effect of creating an environment in which the trader feels as though he's blindfolded and being pricked and prodded and stuck while he's trying to walk on a trampoline. Clearly this is not the preferred route if one has any intention of making a living at trading.

 

Not understanding what one is looking at and perceiving a fundamental irrationality to it all is the chief determinant of fear. It's also why so many beginners turn to scalping, particularly Forex. After all, if it makes no sense anyway, why not just take whatever profits one is lucky enough to get and be content? But I've never known anyone to make a success of that for any length of time, much less make a living at it (whatever anyone says about their trades on a message board, including me, unless they post those trades in advance, can be taken with a grain of salt).

 

If one can remove these filters and keep his feet planted firmly on the ground, he ought to be able to get over all this in a few months. Otherwise, it can take years, if ever. If he doesn't go broke first. If the trader finds, after giving it everything he has, that he cannot dissipate the fear, he ought to quit.

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Db.

Started reading what you mentioned at post #27 (actually expanding it even more as i'm going through the material).

my first reaction to the ideas and theory was to get rid of everything.

got rid of the Range bars,MA's,Pace of tape,MACD, and multiple time frame view when trading, decided to leave a 1 minute OHLC bar and 2 time and sales windows (1 filtered for large blocks)

quite frankly after a couple of hours it feels easier and more natural to look at daily price action.

i think my next step is also get rid of my daily routine of long to short term TA in which i try to guess the daily trend, it seems to me that price goes and will go which direction it find suitable (who am i to try and predict it).

also i'm trying to get rid of "colors" on my chart and time and sales (bid/ask), so i can focus only on price.

I wanted to share my post market analysis (round plot) and real-time trades (NT7 plot), plotted both on the same chart

 

 

Trade 1

I got long because R (from pre-session) was clearly broken after price tested LOD

In real time i played safe since the up thrust was over and i was looking for profit taking. clearly in post analysis i could have stayed longer and should have waited for a decent pullback (reaction).

 

Trade 2

After we broke the up trend line and a decent pullback (reaction completed), short as price goes below the decent reaction low

Target is there because currently i'm trying to exit 2-4 tick beyond the last reaction high/low

I left the trend lines as i draw them in real time, clearly i was stuck in the macro picture and plotting multiple trend lines as price went down after 11:00 that's why i did not take trade 2.

you can see that in real time played it differently, i was not so sure with the PA going on

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=30316&stc=1&d=1343994452

 

What do all the arrows and "entry" notations refer to? Perhaps you could narrate what you did and where and why you did it.

 

Db

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By vishnux
      Hey guys , what are the main things you look for to detect if the consolidation area is accumulating or distributing ? 
      1 ) I see springs in top , still markup happens and it becomes accumulation area and vice versa
      2) There is lots of volume absorption in support line and still markdown occurs.
      3) sometimes in market high / low it becomes re-accumulation  / re-distribution
      Is there any clear way to find it ? 
    • By millonmethod
      Hello everyone!
      I am an advanced trader, with many years of experience (about 15 years - 10 living exclusively from this)
      I am going to give you some tips that you must know:
      There are going to be many people who tell you that trade is easy, that with only crossiing a line  with another one you will win a lot of money.... and that´s not true.  No, Sir, reality is far away from that. Many people who start arrive here with the hope that someone "gives them" a free method, they watch youtube videos thinking that this will give them the "strategy" and in a few days they realize that it does not work for them - they lose money - and then They go looking for a new one ... and so on. YES, IT´S TRUE YOU EARN IN TRADING, A LOT. BUT THINK: for a few to win (10% + any BROKER) many others must lose (90% people). YOU MUST HAVE A MONEY MANAGMENT FORMULA ( you can email me) People study so many years to live on this, not because they are dumb, but to know what they do, when, and have absolute effectiveness. It´s very easy to get lost here: do not disperse, jumping from one to another strategy WILL NEVER give you money, it will only waste your time and make you nervous when trading. PEOPLE WHO CHANGE THEIR METHOD CONSTANTLY : LOOOOSE ALWAYS.   If you have the knowledge to develop it, take your time and do it.  Always try it first on DEMO for at least 2 weeks! If not: search to buy a solid strategy (no you tube videos pleassse ! Avoid losing money! ) This is like any business, it requires some capital to start (capital = money in the broker + solid made /purchased strategy) If you are lost: I RECOMMEND YOU NOT TO WASTE TIME IN YOUTUBE, JOIN PEOPLE WHO HAVE EXPERIENCE AND IF YOU ARE GOING TO BUY A METHOD ... PLEASE !!!! DO NOT BUY 10 BAD AND CHEAP METHODS, SAVE MONEY AND BUY ONLY 1 BUT EXCLUSIVE AND MUST ALLWAYS HAVE SUPPORT !!!!!  Do not buy Signals! They never keep up with constant profits! One week will win and the next will lose. Nothing that does not depend absolutely on you will give you the money you are looking for. And if you do not have a strategy (made or purchased) do not even try PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE: DO NOT USE REAL MONEY! AT LEAST 2 WEEK DEMO FREE HELP HERE!!!!!  IF YOU FOLLOW MY ADVICE YOU WILL BE PART OF THAT 10% WINNER, email me.
      Have a nice trading day
       
       
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 22nd November 2024.   BTC flirts with $100K, Stocks higher, Eurozone PMI signals recession risk.   Asia & European Sessions:   Geopolitical risks are back in the spotlight on fears of escalation in the Ukraine-Russia after Russia reportedly used a new ICBM to retaliate against Ukraine’s use of US and UK made missiles to attack inside Russia. The markets continue to assess the election results as President-elect Trump fills in his cabinet choices, with the key Treasury Secretary spot still open. The Fed’s rate path continues to be debated with a -25 bp December cut seen as 50-50. Earnings season is coming to an end after mixed reports, though AI remains a major driver. Profit taking and rebalancing into year-end are adding to gyrations too. Wall Street rallied, led by the Dow’s 1.06% broadbased pop. The S&P500 advanced 0.53% and the NASDAQ inched up 0.03%. Asian stocks rose after  Nvidia’s rally. Nikkei added 1% to 38,415.32 after the Tokyo inflation data slowed to 2.3% in October from 2.5% in the prior month, reaching its lowest level since January. The rally was also supported by chip-related stocks tracked Nvidia. Overnight-indexed swaps indicate that it’s certain the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut its policy rate by 50 basis points on Nov. 27, with a 22% chance of a 75 basis points reduction. European stocks futures climbed even though German Q3 GDP growth revised down to 0.1% q/q from the 0.2% q/q reported initially. Cryptocurrency market has gained approximately $1 trillion since Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 election. Recent announcement for the SEC boosted cryptos. Chair Gary Gensler will step down on January 20, the day Trump is set to be inaugurated. Gensler has pushed for more protections for crypto investors. MicroStrategy Inc.’s plans to accelerate purchases of the token, and the debut of options on US Bitcoin ETFs also support this rally. Trump’s transition team has begun discussions on the possibility of creating a new White House position focused on digital asset policy.     Financial Markets Performance: The US Dollar recovered overnight and closed at 107.00. Bitcoin currently at 99,300,  flirting with a run toward the 100,000 level. The EURUSD drifts below 1.05, the GBPUSD dips to June’s bottom at 1.2570, while USDJPY rebounded to 154.94. The AUDNZD spiked to 2-year highs amid speculation the RBNZ will cut the official cash rate by more than 50 bps next week. Oil surged 2.12% to $70.46. Gold spiked to 2,697 after escalation alerts between Russia and Ukraine. Heightened geopolitical tensions drove investors toward safe-haven assets. Gold has surged by 30% this year. Haven demand balanced out the pressure from a strong USD following mixed US labor data. Silver rose 0.9% to 31.38, while palladium increased by 0.9% to 1,040.85 per ounce. Platinum remained unchanged. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • A few trending stocks at support BAM MNKD RBBN at https://stockconsultant.com/?MNKD
    • BMBL Bumble stock watch, pull back to 7.94 support area with high trade quality at https://stockconsultant.com/?BMBL
    • LUMN Lumen Technologies stock watch, pull back to 7.43 support area with bullish indicators at https://stockconsultant.com/?LUMN
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.