Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

captjoe

Talk the Talk but Not Walk the Walk

Recommended Posts

My biggest obstacle is being able to follow my trading plan from start to finish. I've obtained quite a bit of knowledge over the years and still profitable but nothing great. I still see much room for improvement. Is there a turning point that my fellow traders go through for example a large draw down? Complete loss of equity in a trading account or maybe a positive change in the way one prepares for their day of trading that has made a difference substantially in their ability to control their emotions and execute their plan.

Thank You in advance for your comments.

:crap:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
My biggest obstacle is being able to follow my trading plan from start to finish. I've obtained quite a bit of knowledge over the years and still profitable but nothing great. I still see much room for improvement. Is there a turning point that my fellow traders go through for example a large draw down? Complete loss of equity in a trading account or maybe a positive change in the way one prepares for their day of trading that has made a difference substantially in their ability to control their emotions and execute their plan.

Thank You in advance for your comments.

:crap:

 

 

The trick is in coming to a turning point without having to go through the pain of a huge drawdown or loss of capital entirely. The fact that you are aware and know there are problems is a good start. Don't ignore it- figure out a way to do something about it instead. Drawdowns will happen, sometimes big ones, even if you are following a winning strategy perfectly- so you certainly don't want to increase the odds of this happening even more than they already are.

 

The points you mention really do all boil down to discipline. You have to work really really hard at keeping your finger away from the mouse when it shouldn't be there! If you want to try out other strategies or ways of trading why not open a demo account and have a play around there instead? Stick notes all over your computer "I will only take trades following my exact strategy"- or other messages- do whatever it takes to ensure you stick to your rules.

 

The above is especially important if you are going through a bit of a rough phase with your system. If you can't stick with it in good times, it's going to get even harder in times when it might not be performing quite so well. (incidentally, if the system stops performing so well scale down your trades until the market conditions adapt to suit the system better).

 

"Come into my trading room" by Dr Alexander Elder is a good book which discusses trading psychology in some detail and may help you.

 

Do you document all of your trades? Keep a spreadsheet as well as a diary. Perhaps print out charts of every trade you take, marking on the charts your entries and why you took that trade. "i took the trade because the moving average lines crossed and my system says to enter", or "i took this trade because the chart looked good". Doing this you can see exactly how much of a problem you have on your hands, become acutely aware of it and have a little bit of accountability to yourself for your actions. The problem with trading is that no one sees what we do-- we can have a sneaky trade here and there and no one will notice. Don't do it! Take every trade as though you need to explain yourself to everyone here.

 

Umm.. i'm going on a bit now, i'll stop. Hope this has helped anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great post UKTraderGirl, I agree with where she is going.

 

For me it was keeping excelent detailed records of every trade. I test all of my systems on paper first before ever putting 1 penny of my hard earned money into the trade. I do some testing as backtesting to make sure the strategy has merrit but for the most part I like to do forward testing with either a demo account or a small actual account.

 

I also used camtasia to video my trades and went back and listened to them at the end of the day. Talk about a wake up call, I would be looking over a trade and say "Why did I take this trade, it went against every rule I have". This was a great learning aid.

 

The one thing that was a big one for me was every time I was getting ready to take a trade I would pretend that my mentor was standing behind me watching my every move. He was watching closely every thing I did. So I made sure to ask myself "Would he do this trade". If not I would ask "why" and if so "why". I forced myself to review each detail of rthe trade I wanted to take.

 

The most important thing is to never give up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

re "The trick is in coming to a turning point without having to go through the pain of a huge drawdown or loss of capital entirely."

An alternative attitude is "The trick is in coming to a turning point no matter how many times you have to blow up entirely."

Make your mistakes faster and faster. If you are truly embodying total commitment, you can not possibly make them fast enough.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
re "The trick is in coming to a turning point without having to go through the pain of a huge drawdown or loss of capital entirely."

An alternative attitude is "The trick is in coming to a turning point no matter how many times you have to blow up entirely."

Make your mistakes faster and faster. If you are truly embodying total commitment, you can not possibly make them fast enough.

Couldn't paper trading serve this purpose to a large extent?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Couldn't paper trading serve this purpose to a large extent?

 

 

Not really.

 

Nothing is quite like the real thing with trading. :) No matter how much you imagine it is like real money, when you actually trade with real money the psychology is quite different- and psychology is at least 50% if not more of what trading is about.

 

Paper trading has its place for sure- and i would never recommend jumping in without trying it out first and using it to hone a strategy. You can vastly underestimate the effect that even a small drawdown can have on you. A 10% drawdown most of us feel is not much and we can easily deal with it- experience it for the first time in your live account after having 5 losing trades in a row (very possible with nearly every system) and it certainly effects you differently.

 

Note i'm not saying, go throw thousands into the markets at random! Rather, placing a small amount into a trading account and considering it your 'training' fee is what i'm trying to get at. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just re-read some of the previous posts.

 

I want to make it clear i'm not suggesting someone go out and blow up lots of accounts until they make it- and do it fast. My post wasn't in agreement with that.

 

The best things come to those with patience and perseverance. This is not the same as getting through a lot of accounts. It means learning to apply very strict money management so you don't have to blow up lots of times! Risking 2% of an account would take 50 losses in a row to blowup- if you manage to do that i suggest stopping trading and taking a serious look at your strategy- and doing the opposite of the signals it generates!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've come near blowing up, it was a great experience.

 

Drawdowns-Try taking 20 to the chin, one after the other.

 

My turning point was a boom and bust period for 6 straight months. I made and lost a lot of money and my blood pressure was soaring. Eventually it led me to my "ah-ha" moment and now after all the struggle, I've found a swing trading method that works.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've come near blowing up, it was a great experience.

 

Drawdowns-Try taking 20 to the chin, one after the other.

 

My turning point was a boom and bust period for 6 straight months. I made and lost a lot of money and my blood pressure was soaring. Eventually it led me to my "ah-ha" moment and now after all the struggle, I've found a swing trading method that works.[/QUOT

 

 

Good for you , have been through that myself, guess most traders have to go through a rough period before the light at the end of the tunnel.:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 4th April 2025.   USDJPY Falls to 25-Week Low as Safe Havens Surge and Markets Eye NFP Data.   Safe haven currencies and the traditional alternative to the US Dollar continue to increase in value while the Dollar declines. Investors traditionally opt to invest in the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc at times of uncertainty and when they wish to avoid the Dollar. The Japanese Yen continues to be the best-performing currency of the week and of the day. Will this continue to be the case after today’s US employment figures?   USDJPY - NFP Data And Trade Negotiations The USDJPY is currently trading at a 25-week low and is witnessing one of its strongest declines this week. The exchange rate is no longer obtaining indications from the RSI that the price is oversold. The current bullish swing is obtaining indications of divergence as the price fails to form a higher high. Therefore, short-term momentum is in favour of the US Dollar, but there are still signs the Japanese Yen can regain momentum quickly.       USDJPY 1-Hour Chart     The price movement of the exchange rate in both the short and long term will depend on 3 factors. Today’s US employment data, next week’s inflation rate and most importantly the progress of negotiations between the US and trade partners. If today’s Unemployment Rate increases above 4.1%, the reading will be the highest seen so far in 2025. Currently, the market expects the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.1% and the Non-Farm Payroll Change to add 137,000 jobs. The average NFP reading this year so far has been 194,000.   If data does not meet expectations, US investors may continue to increase exposure away from the Dollar and to other safe-haven assets. Previously investors were expecting only 2 rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve, however, most investors now expect up to 4. If today’s employment data deteriorates, economists advise the Federal Reserve may opt to cut interest rates sooner.   Therefore, it is important to note that today’s NFP will influence the USDJPY to a large extent. Whereas in the longer-term, trade negotiations will steal the spotlight. If trade partners are able to negotiate the US Dollar can correct back upwards. Whereas, if other countries retaliate and do not negotiate the US Dollar will remain weak.   USDJPY - The Yen and the Bank of Japan The Japanese Yen is the best-performing currency in 2025 increasing by 6.70% so far. Risk indicators such as the VIX and High-Low Indexes continue to worsen which is positive for the JPY as a safe haven currency.   Yesterday Japan released March business activity data that came in weaker than expected: the Services PMI dropped from 53.7 to 50.0, while the Composite PMI fell from 52.0 to 48.9. The data is the lowest in two years. These figures could hinder further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. However, most economists still expect the Bank Of Japan to hike at least once more. It's also important to note, that even if the BOJ opts for a prolonged pause, a cut is not likely.   Additionally, a 24% tariff was imposed on Japanese exports to the US yesterday. Prime Minister Mr Ishiba expressed disappointment over Japan's failure to secure a tariff exemption and pledged support measures to help domestic industries manage the impact.   Key Takeaway Points: US Dollar Weakens, Safe Havens Rise: The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc continue to gain as investors shift away from the US Dollar. USDJPY Under Pressure: USDJPY trades at a 25-week low, with short-term momentum favouring the Dollar but long-term trends pointing to potential Yen strength. NFP and Unemployment Crucial: Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment figures will heavily influence short-term USDJPY. On the other hand, trade negotiations will dictate longer-term trends. Japan Faces Mixed Signals: Despite weak PMI data and new US tariffs, the Japanese Yen remains strong. Economists expect at least one more rate hike from the Bank of Japan, but no cuts are in sight. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • YUM Yum Brands stock, nice breakout with volume +34.5%, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?YUM
    • Date: 3rd April 2025.   Gold Prices Pull Back After Record High as Traders Eye Trump’s Tariffs.   Key Takeaways:   Gold prices retreated after hitting a record high of $3,167.57 per ounce due to profit-taking. President Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, escalating trade tensions. Gold remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal. Investors await US non-farm payroll data for further market direction. Fed rate cut bets and weaker US Treasury yields underpin gold’s bullish outlook. Gold Prices Retreat from Record Highs Amid Profit-Taking Gold prices saw a pullback on Thursday as traders opted to take profits following a historic surge. Spot gold declined 0.4% to $3,122.10 per ounce as of 0710 GMT, retreating from its fresh all-time high of $3,167.57. Meanwhile, US gold futures slipped 0.7% to $3,145.00 per ounce, reflecting broader market uncertainty over economic and geopolitical developments.   The recent rally was largely fueled by concerns over escalating trade tensions after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new import tariffs. The 10% baseline tariff on all goods entering the US further deepened the global trade conflict, intensifying investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, as traders locked in gains from the surge, prices saw a modest retracement.   Trump’s Tariffs and Their Market Implications On Wednesday, Trump introduced a sweeping tariff policy imposing a 10% baseline duty on all imports, with significantly higher tariffs on select nations. While this move was aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing, it sent shockwaves across global markets, fueling inflation concerns and heightening trade war fears.   Gold’s Role Amid Trade War Escalations Despite the widespread tariff measures, the White House clarified that reciprocal tariffs do not apply to gold, energy, and ‘certain minerals that are not available in the US’. This exemption suggests that central banks and institutional investors may continue favouring gold as a hedge against economic instability. One of the key factors supporting gold is the slowdown that these tariffs could cause in the US economy, which raises the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold is currently in a pure momentum trade. Market participants are on the sidelines and until we see a significant shakeout, this momentum could persist.   Impact on the US Dollar and Bond Yields Gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar, and the latest developments have pushed the dollar to its weakest level since October 2024. Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut, as the tariffs could weigh on economic growth.   Additionally, US Treasury yields have plummeted, reflecting growing recession fears. Lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it a more attractive investment.         Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Gold’s recent rally has pushed it into overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. This indicates a potential short-term pullback before the uptrend resumes. The immediate support level lies at $3,115, aligning with the Asian session low. A further decline could bring gold towards the $3,100 psychological level, which has previously acted as a strong support zone. Below this, the $3,076–$3,057 region represents a critical weekly support range where buyers may re-enter the market. In the event of a more significant correction, $3,000 stands as a major psychological floor.   On the upside, gold faces immediate resistance at $3,149. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a retest of the record high at $3,167. If bullish momentum persists, the next target is the $3,200 psychological barrier, which could pave the way for further gains. Despite the recent pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, with dips likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.   Looking Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls and Fed Policy Traders are closely monitoring Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. A weaker-than-expected jobs report may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut, further boosting gold prices.   Other key economic data releases, such as jobless claims and the ISM Services PMI, may also impact market sentiment in the short term. However, with rising geopolitical uncertainties, trade tensions, and a weakening US dollar, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong.   Conclusion: While short-term profit-taking may trigger minor corrections, gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish. As global trade tensions mount and the Federal Reserve leans toward a more accommodative stance, gold could see further gains in the months ahead.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock, nice buying at the 187.26 triple+ support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
    • DELL Dell Technologies stock, good day moving higher off the 90.99 double support area, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?DELL
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.