Never Lose Again!! TheRumpledOne

[BlowFish 10]

H = Hourly 1 = One (Hour) Colour Red Open > Close Green Open < Close

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

Some of you may be wondering about the challenge I presented in another forum.

 

OK, lets try to firm up the rules:

 

Bunny's developed a bit of a following trading EURUSD, I have no objection to sticking with that, although if you'd rather a bit more volatility thats fine by me.

 

I have no objection whatsoever if you'd like to pass up selected entries, if you wish to impose the additional constraint of taking every set up thats fine, but I certainly would not expect you to take trades that dont meet with your criteria

 

Im fine with discretionary exits, although this of course means that verification by EA wont be possible, which pretty much invalidates the whole challenge for those who are critisising the "system" rather than the trader, but I'll play along How do you suggest we monitor your entries and exits, I assume posting in a forum is going to be problematic ?

 

Lets take a look at the stats at the end of the week and decide if the sample population is sufficient to draw a meaningful conclusion.

I don't want any wishy washy entries because then you'll use that against me in the future.

 

I want YOU to pick the currency so I can't be accused of CHERRY PICKING the currency.

 

The rules ARE firm:

 

1) We use the first 3 numbers that were posted by people since I asked as the PRICE ENDING NUMBERS.

 

2) We use an H1 chart to determine the candle color and trade direction. Close above open is GREEN CANDLE, close below open is RED CANDLE.

 

3) If the candle is GREEN and price moves UP to one of the prices ending in the random number then we go long. If the candle is RED and price moves DOWN to one of the prices ending in the random number then we go short. NO long entries on RED candles and NO short entries on GREEN candles.

 

4) We take the FIRST TRADE in each direction each hour. This means the maximum number of trades per hour is 2. One long and one short. We do NOT pass up or cherry pick trades.

 

5) If a line is never touched, then NO TRADE.

 

6) 5 Pips or more is considered a winning trade.

 

7) We will STOP LOSS at 20 pips OR if the candle changes color AND hits a price ending in one of the random numbers. For example if we are long at x.xx25 and the price never reaches x.xx30 and the H1 candle turns red and hits x.xx09 (assuming 09 is another random number) then we will stop out and reverse (assuming this is the first time x.xx09 was hit this hour).

 

8) We will trade the EURUSD unless this is NOT your favorite currency.

 

Let me know if the rules need more clarification or explanation.

 

MT4 indicators attached.

challenge.zip

Edited December 8, 2008 by Soultrader

[gomesjps 10]

 

The ship has sailed.

 

0.6425 is NOT an entry.

 

0.6400 was the entry.

 

Sorry, didn't get this one...

Shouldn't the entry have been at 0.6375?

 

Bump: Bump:

Sorry, just thought of some more questions:

 

.....Someone on this thread mentioned that it is not easy to trade for only a +10 to + 20 pip gain, the broker won't like it or will somehow do something to screw you up? Is this true and what did he mean by the broker screwing you? I have heard before if you can make net +20 pips per day you can do pretty well with this. Is this true?

 

Can you recommend where I should go to study and learn more about the forex market? Obviously I would start very small so I can't get hurt too badly if things don't go well....

 

You can start by having a look at this site's introdutory threads. :missy:

Edited December 8, 2008 by Soultrader

[phreddy 10]

I must admit to not being able to understand the thrust of this thread for a long time. Now, I think that I have solved the riddle of ‘ IF IT IS GREEN GO LONG, IF RED, GO SHORT’

 

At the risk of being entirely wrong I believe that the major part of this thread is concerned with the premise that PRICE is attracted to the PSYCHOLOGICAL numbers 00, 25, 50, 75 and the next 00 etc.

 

There are a couple of You-tubes detailing a 00, 50 version. The premise is that if the price is rising through one of these levels then it will probably reach the next, if falling, it will probably fall to the next.

 

Having said that, I have no idea which of the many EAs TRO gives us in his NLA.zip package would show the required screen. I believe that there are some hints in some of the later posts. Sweetspots gold gives the horizontal lines at 00, 25, 50 & 75 I believe, although someone said that it produced lines at every 3 pips for them (unless I read it wrong)

 

Anyway thanks TRO for your work., if I can load the EAs into my account I will give it a try and, of course, never lose (much) again!!

 

Bump: I must admit to not being able to understand the thrust of this thread for a long time. Now, I think that I have solved the riddle of ‘ IF IT IS GREEN GO LONG, IF RED, GO SHORT’

 

At the risk of being entirely wrong I believe that the major part of this thread is concerned with the premise that PRICE is attracted to the PSYCHOLOGICAL numbers 00, 25, 50, 75 and the next 00 etc.

 

There are a couple of You-tubes detailing a 00, 50 version. The premise is that if the price is rising through one of these levels then it will probably reach the next, if falling, it will probably fall to the next.

 

Having said that, I have no idea which of the many EAs TRO gives us in his NLA.zip package would show the required screen. I believe that there are some hints in some of the later posts. Sweetspots gold gives the horizontal lines at 00, 25, 50 & 75 I believe, although someone said that it produced lines at every 3 pips for them (unless I read it wrong)

 

Anyway thanks TRO for your work., if I can load the EAs into my account I will give it a try and, of course, never lose (much) again!!

Edited December 8, 2008 by Soultrader

[BlowFish 10]

As TRO frequently points out, you don't need any indicators! In fact if one can not see if price is rising when it hits 00 then any career that needs even the basic levels of numeracy (or being able to tell up from down for that matter) is likely to be out of reach

 

Glad you have deciphered things though!

[ZOSO 10]

Time frame doesn't matter.

 

Post a chart or 2 showing what your questions are regarding the Fib SR.

 

Use an H1 chart and plot horizontal lines at prices ending in 00, 25, 50 and 75. Look at how many wins you would have trading with the H1 candle color at the horizontal lines.

 

Bump:

 

 

No matter where I go, there's always at least ONE!

Excuse my ignorance, but what are H1 Lines?

 

Also, if I plot a line on 00, 25, 50 and 75, there will be a line on each and every tick since the ES trades in quarters.

 

I'll post a few charts soon, but please address these issues. Thank you.

[ggs14u 10]

Excuse my ignorance, but what are H1 Lines?

 

Also, if I plot a line on 00, 25, 50 and 75, there will be a line on each and every tick since the ES trades in quarters.

 

I'll post a few charts soon, but please address these issues. Thank you.

 

H1 stands for one hour timeframe.

 

For ES plot the lines at the whole number such as 1200.00, 1225.00, 1250.00, 1275.00, and etc.

 

Also I don't know if anyone is using futures or stocks to trade the horizontal lines. You may be the first. But most of us are trading this set up using the spot forex pairs.

 

Hope this helps you out.

[OAC 10]

H1 stands for one hour timeframe.

 

 

One more ignorant question, do we have to wait for one hour candle to close to trigger the signal ? or we can take the signal as the hourly candle is in the process of forming and also crosses one of those horizontal lines ?

[ggs14u 10]

One more ignorant question, do we have to wait for one hour candle to close to trigger the signal ? or we can take the signal as the hourly candle is in the process of forming and also crosses one of those horizontal lines ?

 

No that's a good and important question. You should take the trade as soon as it crosses the line in the direction of the H1 candlestick color. Don't wait until the H1 candle closes.

[BlowFish 10]

Zoso this is presented for currencies. You will see that TRO sometimes mentions that any line (even random ones) will do. For ES you might try a line every 10 full points or perhaps every 50 ticks. As theses are 'psychological; lines Id go with the former.

[OAC 10]

I must admit to not being able to understand the thrust of this thread for a long time. Now, I think that I have solved the riddle of ‘ IF IT IS GREEN GO LONG, IF RED, GO SHORT’

 

At the risk of being entirely wrong I believe that the major part of this thread is concerned with the premise that PRICE is attracted to the PSYCHOLOGICAL numbers 00, 25, 50, 75 and the next 00 etc.

 

 

It is ironic that TRO has hundreds of his indicators published on the internet and dazzle us with all the bells and whistles on his charts that he can't just come up with something like the following to explain his strategy without leading his readers astray for some 16 pages:

 

If Open(H1) < Last(H1) and (Last(H1)=00 or Last(H1)=25 or Last(H1)=50 or Last (H1)=75 or Last(H1)=00) Then Prepare to go Long

 

If Open(H1) > Last(H1) and (Last(H1)=00 or Last(H1)=25 or Last(H1)=50 or Last (H1)=75 or Last(H1)=00) Then Prepare to go Short

Edited November 29, 2008 by OAC

[lateeda 10]

agree, trading is easier than many make it out to be:

 

key 1: develop an edge, money management means nothing with a losing strategy.

 

key 2: fearlessly pull the trigger with stop loss in place and a good idea on where to exit with profits that transpire.

 

key 3: see key 2.

[atto 20]

It is ironic that TRO has hundreds of his indicators published on the internet and dazzle us with all the bells and whistles on his charts that he can't just come up with something like the following to explain his strategy without leading his readers astray for some 16 pages

Additionally, since the strategy is so mechanical and easy, it's also easy to backtest.

 

3 month backtest

EUR/USD Win rate: 73.37%, Profit factor: 0.84, Net Profit: -6.79%

AUD/USD Win rate: 67.19%, Profit factor: 0.60, Net Profit: -35.33%

USD/JPY Win rate: 68.46%, Profit factor: 0.68, Net Profit: -22.10%

GBP/USD Win rate: 69.51%, Profit factor: 0.69, Net Profit: -29.72%

 

Let's say, however, that the backtest was flawed (against him, of course), and that using trading intuition, TRO is able to cut losses significantly and have substantially more accurate trades. Only fair, since I don't trade this system, and we've never seen actual trades (sans annotated charts, which mean little), so we don't know how bad (or good!) it really is.

 

Let's be nice, and say the average stop loss is more like 15 pips (verses 20). But wait! There's a spread to worry about. Let's factor in a 2 pip spread (on the low side). Risking 17 to win 3. Shucks, slippage. Let's pretend he never gets slippage.

 

So, to break even on this trade, he needs to win 85% of the trades (nearly 6 wins for every loss). If he can beat that, with all the generous assumptions I've made, he'll profit.

[phreddy 10]

Interesting figures Atto.

I suspect that there are some additional rules that we have not been able to detect.

 

Suspect that TRO would not publish something that loses as often as you show.

 

It seems strange to me that the people who say that they use the system have not come forward to demonstrate their knowledge. Mary Pippings wrote a supporting post. I have sent her a PM asking for her to explain the system to me but no reply as yet.

 

I am thinking of starting a thread asking people to explain TRO's system. Don't want to upset him but...

[atto 20]

Suspect that TRO would not publish something that loses as often as you show.

That's the thing: It does win more than it loses, which makes this appear wonderful to a new trader. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem to win enough to cover for the losses that after commissions are MINIMALLY 6 times the wins (once you actually trade this for money and run into slippage, you'll run into even bigger problems). It is up to the reader to decide if the system as presented could beat the ridiculous assumptions -- in TRO's favor -- that I made, and be profitable.

 

With that, I'll let TRO continue his thread in peace...

[ZOSO 10]

Zoso this is presented for currencies. You will see that TRO sometimes mentions that any line (even random ones) will do. For ES you might try a line every 10 full points or perhaps every 50 ticks. As theses are 'psychological; lines Id go with the former.

Thanks. I'll toy around with this in sim to see if this works with ES, but it's an academic excersise.

[Nipper 10]

Additionally, since the strategy is so mechanical and easy, it's also easy to backtest.

 

3 month backtest

EUR/USD Win rate: 73.37%, Profit factor: 0.84, Net Profit: -6.79%

AUD/USD Win rate: 67.19%, Profit factor: 0.60, Net Profit: -35.33%

USD/JPY Win rate: 68.46%, Profit factor: 0.68, Net Profit: -22.10%

GBP/USD Win rate: 69.51%, Profit factor: 0.69, Net Profit: -29.72%

 

Let's say, however, that the backtest was flawed (against him, of course), and that using trading intuition, TRO is able to cut losses significantly and have substantially more accurate trades. Only fair, since I don't trade this system, and we've never seen actual trades (sans annotated charts, which mean little), so we don't know how bad (or good!) it really is.

 

Let's be nice, and say the average stop loss is more like 15 pips (verses 20). But wait! There's a spread to worry about. Let's factor in a 2 pip spread (on the low side). Risking 17 to win 3. Shucks, slippage. Let's pretend he never gets slippage.

 

So, to break even on this trade, he needs to win 85% of the trades (nearly 6 wins for every loss). If he can beat that, with all the generous assumptions I've made, he'll profit.

 

To be fair, backtests using Metatrader are notoriously unreliable, even with a 90% modeling quality. The ones sited here are at less than 60%, meaning the results are practically not even worth mentioning. I haven't traded this yet, but manual backtesting seems to show a pretty consistently winning method.

 

Thanks, Rumpled One, for sharing this.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

It is ironic that TRO has hundreds of his indicators published on the internet and dazzle us with all the bells and whistles on his charts that he can't just come up with something like the following to explain his strategy without leading his readers astray for some 16 pages:

 

If Open(H1) < Last(H1) and (Last(H1)=00 or Last(H1)=25 or Last(H1)=50 or Last (H1)=75 or Last(H1)=00) Then Prepare to go Long

 

If Open(H1) > Last(H1) and (Last(H1)=00 or Last(H1)=25 or Last(H1)=50 or Last (H1)=75 or Last(H1)=00) Then Prepare to go Short

 

Leading astray?

 

I am not sure what you're on about.

 

Bump:

Interesting figures Atto.

I suspect that there are some additional rules that we have not been able to detect.

 

Suspect that TRO would not publish something that loses as often as you show.

 

It seems strange to me that the people who say that they use the system have not come forward to demonstrate their knowledge. Mary Pippings wrote a supporting post. I have sent her a PM asking for her to explain the system to me but no reply as yet.

 

I am thinking of starting a thread asking people to explain TRO's system. Don't want to upset him but...

 

People can post their results on this thread, we don't need another thread.

 

What the "backtesters" are missing is that NO ONE TRADES 24 HOURS A DAY!

 

Try trading the London or NY session only and see if that improves things.

 

Not to mention, how many total pips per day do you need?

 

Once you hit your daily goal, QUIT!

 

Also, in the challenge, I am just taking 5 pips. But why leave pips on the table if you can SEE what price is doing?

 

Bump:

That's the thing: It does win more than it loses, which makes this appear wonderful to a new trader. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem to win enough to cover for the losses that after commissions are MINIMALLY 6 times the wins (once you actually trade this for money and run into slippage, you'll run into even bigger problems). It is up to the reader to decide if the system as presented could beat the ridiculous assumptions -- in TRO's favor -- that I made, and be profitable.

 

With that, I'll let TRO continue his thread in peace...

 

 

Hey, I don't mind debate/discussion so long as it's ON TOPIC and polite.

 

Once again, the new trader needs to learn how to identify and execute winning entries. After they master taking a quick 5 pips, then they will see

win they should have stayed in longer and when exiting with 5 was smart.

 

Thanks for posting and being polite.

[OAC 10]

Leading astray?

 

I am not sure what you're on about.

 

 

Let me guess, may be you are trying to rack up the numbers ? As you mentioned on page 4 of this thread:

 

 

"NEVER LOSE AGAIN at BabyPips.

 

93 Attachment(s) Never Lose Again!! (Multi-page thread 1 2 3 ... Last Page)

TheRumpledOne

 

Today 06:15 PM

by Shane Go to last post

2,208 136,834 Show me the money! [Daytrading]

 

 

Thread was started: 08-22-2008, 05:45 PM

 

2,209 replies, 136,834 views. You can't argue with numbers."

 

On the other hand, I could be wrong. :missy:

[TheRumpledOne 14]

Racking up the numbers only happens when there is something of value.

 

Bump:

It is ironic that TRO has hundreds of his indicators published on the internet and dazzle us with all the bells and whistles on his charts that he can't just come up with something like the following to explain his strategy without leading his readers astray for some 16 pages:

 

If Open(H1) < Last(H1) and (Last(H1)=00 or Last(H1)=25 or Last(H1)=50 or Last (H1)=75 or Last(H1)=00) Then Prepare to go Long

 

If Open(H1) > Last(H1) and (Last(H1)=00 or Last(H1)=25 or Last(H1)=50 or Last (H1)=75 or Last(H1)=00) Then Prepare to go Short

 

That's just ONE method.

 

But the point is NOT the method.

 

The point is getting the trade to SEE what PRICE is doing with their own eyes.

[Hlm 10]

Racking up the numbers only happens when there is something of value.

Kind of like how traffic ONLY slows down when the accident is on your side of the road.

 

Those numbers only indicate interest. They don't take into account if the interest is negative or positive (ie Value). Just a comment...not meant to be "bashing" the content.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

Most viewers are repeat viewers.

[Hlm 10]

Most viewers are repeat viewers.

Again, it's not about original or repeat viewers. Are they coming back to learn more or for the drama ? Just a thought.

 

Again, nothing to do with your strategy...just wanted to comment on your idea about the numbers saying it all. I will not further this anymore since I think I made my point clear. Onward with your thread.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

I suggest you look at the NEVER LOSE AGAIN threads and determine that for yourself.

 

Bump:

 

 

GBPJPY nice reversal this hour.

 

Bump:

 

 

GBPJPY nice reversal this hour.

[Stewie Griffin 10]

Hey TRO...question for you...it seems the 25 50 75 00 numbers also serve as mini s&r points...helping to gauge whether a reversal is in order, am i right in this assumption?

 

 

BTW this is my first post, been lurking for a while and decided to come out the shadows...