Never Lose Again!! TheRumpledOne

[TheRumpledOne 14]

Hi TRO,

Thanks for this simple and effective method. Does this method work on higher time frames like 4hr, daily etc.

 

Thanks

 

I am not sure what method you are talking about.

 

I would say "YES" because PRICE IS THE SAME on all time frames and all these methods are price based.

[Hlm 10]

I am not sure what method you are talking about.

 

I would say "YES" because PRICE IS THE SAME on all time frames and all these methods are price based.

Yes, price is the same formation wise but has a larger average range per bar on a higher time frame. So for a 4H candle system would an individual only take trades at 00's (versus 25, 50, and 75) and just wait longer to take half off (e.g. 20 pips versus 5 pips)? If not then there would be no reason to move to a larger time frame right? My guess is that that's what the question was leaning towards.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

Yes, price is the same formation wise but has a larger average range per bar on a higher time frame. So for a 4H candle system would an individual only take trades at 00's (versus 25, 50, and 75) and just wait longer to take half off (e.g. 20 pips versus 5 pips)? If not then there would be no reason to move to a larger time frame right? My guess is that that's what the question was leaning towards.

 

Not sure what you mean by "formation wise".

 

My point is that if PRICE is 1.5000 on M1, it's also 1.5000 on H1, D1, W1, etc...

 

But it would be possible that the candle is GREEN on H1 but RED on H4 so depending on which way price is MOVING AT THE TIME along with the candle color is what would determine your entry.

 

There is no reason NOT to take the trades at 25, 50 and 75 if one those is the FIRST HORIZONTAL LINE to be crossed by the candle.

[willkohsg 10]

hi all,

just came back form the 2 percent club on paltalk.

TRO's BUzzard strategy does work!!

 

grabbed +10 pips in a few mins

 

see below

 

 

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

I just made a quick 9 pips shorting the GBPUSD to show that this works on any pair.

[sdoma 10]

I just made a quick 9 pips shorting the GBPUSD to show that this works on any pair.

 

What kind of broker do you use? With a lot of the cash brokers out there, they'd rob you blind going for 9 pips on a scalp.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

What kind of broker do you use? With a lot of the cash brokers out there, they'd rob you blind going for 9 pips on a scalp.

 

I used the FXCM FREE micro account. I have been playing with that platform this week. It's part of the CNBC trading contest.

 

My usual broker is MB TRADING.

 

How could they ROB ME BLIND?

 

If you use LIMIT ORDERS, you can only get filled at the limit price or better.

 

If you use MARKET ORDERS and are quick enough, they either accept your deal at the market price or they reject your deal.

[Hlm 10]

There is no reason NOT to take the trades at 25, 50 and 75 if one those is the FIRST HORIZONTAL LINE to be crossed by the candle.

I would not necessarily disagree. However, if nothing changes then there would be no reason whatsoever to take a trade based off the 4H when you can just use the 1H. Because since you don't reenter until a new candle is created ("shipped already sailed"), you would only get one entry on the 4H (with the same Risk/Reward) when you could get multiple entries on the 1H. If nothing changes, the only reason one would want to view the 4H is to maybe stay with the larger trend.

 

I would say "YES" because PRICE IS THE SAME on all time frames and all these methods are price based.

So the answer is literally yes, but realistically there is no reason to look at anything higher unless for finding bias to filter out some trades. I could be wrong, but I believe that the question about higher time frames was about staying in the trade longer than just a scalp. For this to be done, both the risk and reward would have to be increased so the amount of entries would have to be decreased since an ultimate stop is determined by the next line down.

 

Hopefully I am making sense. Again, I am not necessarily disagreeing...I am just trying to clarify.

[iinself 10]

In response to post # 101

 

Yes, I am thinking along HLM's lines. The question arose because I am not a full time trader and don't have time to keep monitoring the chart, so was wondering if I could move to a higher time frame and look for a slightly larger profit target, say 20 pips. I guess my question is what is the rationale behind your strategy of going long when a green candle crosses a 00, 25, 50, 75 line. If it is that it is a psychological # and there is a heavy concentration of trades placed on either side of these numbers and the color of the candle indicates the current trend then I guess higher time frames should behave in the same way as lower time frames. Also they would not be in conflict i.e. red 4 hr candle and green 1 hr candle because you trade only when the direction of the price and the candle color are same.

 

I hope I am being clear enough. Again to summarize the question is what is the logic behind this method, so that we could understand it the better and adapt it to situation better.

 

Thanks

Edited November 14, 2008 by iinself

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

In response to post # 101

 

Yes, I am thinking along HLM's lines. The question arose because I am not a full time trader and don't have time to keep monitoring the chart, so was wondering if I could move to a higher time frame and look for a slightly larger profit target, say 20 pips. I guess my question is what is the rationale behind your strategy of going long when a green candle crosses a 00, 25, 50, 75 line. If it is that it is a psychological # and there is a heavy concentration of trades placed on either side of these numbers and the color of the candle indicates the current trend then I guess higher time frames should behave in the same way as lower time frames. Also they would not be in conflict i.e. red 4 hr candle and green 1 hr candle because you trade only when the direction of the price and the candle color are same.

 

I hope I am being clear enough. Again to summarize the question is what is the logic behind this method, so that we could understand it the better and adapt it to situation better.

 

Thanks

 

The logic is the statistics.

 

Just look at a chart with the HORIZONTAL LINES plotted.

 

You can SEE that you can almost always make at least 5 - 10 pips from this trade.

 

For H4, you would have to run the statistics to see how long to stay in.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

A quick 20+ pips on the RED H1 CANDLE SHORT at 0.6650

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

WHAT A GREAT SHORT AT 0.6650

[januson 10]

Hello TRO

 

I've been following your threads around on the Internet, last time at Kreslik and now here, welcome

 

I've a very easy question... Can this be done with stocks also?

 

PS: Btw. TRO is a word in Danish, it means faith

http://www.ordbogen.com/opslag.php?word=tro&dict=auto

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

Looking to see if there could be an "edge" in know if an hour bar has a tendency to be RED or GREEN

[TheRumpledOne 14]

Hello TRO

 

I've been following your threads around on the Internet, last time at Kreslik and now here, welcome

 

I've a very easy question... Can this be done with stocks also?

 

PS: Btw. TRO is a word in Danish, it means faith

http://www.ordbogen.com/opslag.php?word=tro&dict=auto

 

Yes, the PSYCHOLOGICAL HORIZONTAL LINES can be applied to stock trading. Works for both daytrading and swing trading.

 

But you need to trade VOLATILE stocks that have RANGE and VOLUME.

 

AAPL and RIMM are 2 candidates.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

ALL YOU NEED TO TRADE IS A HORIZONTAL LINE

 

 

 

TRADING IS SIMPLE.

 

There is an entire industry built around making you think it is complicated.

 

All you need is a HORIZONTAL LINE on your chart to be a profitable trader.

 

I bet you doubt me, don't you?

 

Go long when the price moves UP to a price ends in 00, 25, 50 or 75.

 

Go short when the price moves DOWN to a price ends in 00, 25, 50 or 75.

 

IT IS THAT SIMPLE!!

 

Look at the chart and see how many pips you can make when you trade with the H1 candle color.

 

You can do this with stocks, currencies, futures, etc.

 

Oh when to take profits? Where to place stops? Just DON'T BE GREEDY and use COMMON SENSE! Learn some money management.

 

Pick ANY candle on the chart.

 

1) identify the color.

 

2) let the candle close

 

3) if the next candle is NOT the same color then:

 

if the current candle is GREEN go LONG at the FIRST line it approaches

 

if the current candle is RED go SHORT at the FIRST line it approaches

 

When to exit? Usually, when price stalls.

 

Stop loss? If price crosses the previous candle's midpoint.

 

Does that help?

 

So simple.

 

If H1 candle closes green then on next red candle go SHORT at the line.

 

If H1 candle closes red then on next green candle go LONG at the line.

 

 

Be patient. Don't rush the trade.

 

Don't be greedy and you can rack up the pips.

 

Let me answer the WHIPSAW protester before they even get started.

 

Of course, there will be price action around the x.00 and x.50 levels. That's what we are looking for and that's the reason we trade with the color of the H1 candle rather than the M1 candle ( M1 chart above ).

 

Just use a little risk management and money management.

 

Practice with 1 minilot or 0.1 minilot until you get the hang of it.

 

One of the things you want in trading is an "edge".

 

You are NOT going to win every trade.

 

So you want something that gives you a edge.

 

Casinos have edge in the range of 0.55 - 2%. That's all they need.

 

My statistics show this edge is much higher.

 

Choppy days? I love choppy days. So long as the average hourly range is over 25, that's all the edge I need. THINK ABOUT IT!!

 

You can look for situations where this doesn't work...

 

-OR-

 

You can wait for the setup and walk away with a handful of pips.

 

IT'S ALL UP TO YOU!

 

The best trade is waiting for the reversal.

 

When to get out? If you have profit, get out when you want to. You can always exit part of your position. Move stop up to breakeven and let the rest ride!

 

Once again, the color of the previous candle makes no difference. YOU TRADE WITH THE CURRENT CANDLE COLOR. It is that simple. Don't make this simple trading method complicated.

 

Once again, waiting for a reversal is the "safe" trade.

 

You must trade in the moment. The past is over!

 

All that matters is what price is doing now!!

 

What would you do if all you had on your chart was the current candle?

 

If the current candle is green would you short?

 

If the current candle is red would you buy?

 

Does this make it clearer?

 

This is a safe trade for the new trader.

 

But, whether or not you use the previous candle to decide if you are going to trade the current candle, YOU MUST FOCUS ON THE CURRENT CANDLE TO DECIDE WHICH WAY TO TRADE.

[email 10]

 

I just made a quick 9 pips shorting the GBPUSD to show that this works on any pair.

 

Hi Avrey,

Nice to see your posting here know. I have gone through the posts and trying to understand your method. So, is the first thing to do is place the golden.... indicator on the chart and then if it(the lines it plots) coincides with a level of 25, 50,75, we place a trade at the line and when it plows through that level it will take your price with it. So at 4825 I would be short,right?

Thanks a million,

email

[HAKUNA 10]

Hi Avrey,

Nice to see your posting here know. I have gone through the posts and trying to understand your method. So, is the first thing to do is place the golden.... indicator on the chart and then if it(the lines it plots) coincides with a level of 25, 50,75, we place a trade at the line and when it plows through that level it will take your price with it. So at 4825 I would be short,right?

Thanks a million,

email

 

And what if the next candle is going up and price hits 4850.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

 

Let's look at the horizontal line trade at the 00,25,50,75.

 

See the last candle?

 

It opened between 97.250 and 97.000

 

When price was 97.000 the candle was RED.

 

Had you gone SHORT, you could have made money.

 

That's all there is to it.

 

Nothing more.

 

SEE RED.

 

SEE RED AT 97.000

 

GO SHORT AT 97.000

 

TAKE PROFIT.

 

It's that simple.

 

 

 

Here's another example.

 

Price opened betwen 1.19000 and 1.19250.

 

The candle was GREEN at 1.19250.

 

SEE GREEN CANDLE.

 

SEE GREEN CANDLE AT 1.19250

 

GO LONG AT 1.19250

 

TAKE PROFIT.

 

 

 

Now, let's look at a reversal trade.

 

The rule is wait for 3 or more GREEN H1 candles in a row to go SHORT on the next candle.

 

The rule is wait for 3 or more RED H1 candles in a row to go LONG on the next candle.

 

Look at the last candle. The 3 candles before it were RED. That means we wait for GREEN to go LONG.

 

I know you see that long tail and are thinking about losses so let's look at the M5 chart with the H1 background colored in.

 

 

Had you jumped in right at the open, you could have made a quick scalp.

 

The next M5 candle was RED which means you should NOT BE LONG.

 

Later during that hour, PRICE turned the H1 candle GREEN again and you can enter.

 

Now, if you are an experienced trader, you could have gone long on the GREEN M5 candle at 1.55000 or go with the price flow at 1.54750.

 

The main point to see is:

 

TRADING AT THE HORIZONTAL LINE IN THE DIRECTION PRICE IS MOVING USUALLY GIVES YOU AN OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE PROFIT.

 

Now, look back... see 3 GREEN candles in a row. What happened next? REVERSAL! Look back a little a little further. Do you see 3 GREEN candles in a row? What happened next? REVERSAL! Are you starting to see a pattern?

 

THIS IS SIMPLE.

 

DO NOT COMPLICATE IT.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

Hi Avrey,

Nice to see your posting here know. I have gone through the posts and trying to understand your method. So, is the first thing to do is place the golden.... indicator on the chart and then if it(the lines it plots) coincides with a level of 25, 50,75, we place a trade at the line and when it plows through that level it will take your price with it. So at 4825 I would be short,right?

Thanks a million,

email

 

The SHORT entry was at 4850.

 

You want to enter at the FIRST LINE that PRICE HITS.

 

Why wait another 25 pips?

[TheRumpledOne 14]

And what if the next candle is going up and price hits 4850.

 

If next candle goes up and is GREEN at 4850 and 4850 is the FIRST LINE PRICE HITS, then you GO LONG at 4850.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

HOW I DO IT

 

 

I look at my TRO DASHBOARD BAR COUNT to see what pairs have 3 or more H1 candles in a row.

 

Then I look at the TRO MPMM CANDLE COLOR indicator to see how far up/down price is from the H1 open. I also can see if the price is up/down for the day. Trading when H1 and D1 are the same color is usually profitable especially after a 3 bar reversal.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

TRO MPMM EXITS

 

 

Since I get asked about exits all the time, I wrote TRO_MPMM_EXIT.

 

TRO_MPMM_EXIT will show you when it's time to start thinking about exiting your trade.

 

There are 5 arrowheads that show exits based on:

 

1: CANDLE COLOR

2: HIGHER HIGH / LOWER LOW

3: CLOSE VS. PIVOT

4: CONTROL

5: CLOSE VS EMA(5)

 

If 3 or more arrowhead colors match then the color of the pair show that color.

 

If you are SHORT and the arrows are green EXIT

 

If you are LONG and the arrows are red EXIT.

 

Of course, if you THINK ABOUT IT, you can use this for entries, too but that's NOT what it was designed for.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

I made another version of TRO HL HISTOGRAM that allows the trader to input a price and shows by how many pips price crossed that price.

 

It only shows in the direction of the candle color.

 

As you can see, trading with the H1 candle at 0.6600 would have been very profitable.

[HAKUNA 10]

Do you only trade currencies or other instruments as well,

if so, perhaps you can illustrate with ESmini

Hourly chart attached