Never Lose Again!! TheRumpledOne

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

 

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

 

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

[foxterbotello 10]

 

 

1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

 

============================================

 

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

 

 

hello greetings fantastic I think what you do and your method of negotiation as a rat, I have a question rookie, as I do in my letters to see the list of currencies in which you seek an opportunity where they exit all high and all the lower of each pair of currency ..

 

as I put on my screen?

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

I've become interested in this potential edge of capturing points off the daily low (Green Rat) so I began to create some studies.

 

This is a fascinating study and exactly the sort of thing that I joined this forum for. Might it be worth posting this as a seperate thread to avoid pissing off TheRumpledOne?

 

Do you have any ideas yet about how you'd go about buying close to the daily low? Have you looked at how the average low-to-close ticks are impacted upon by the long term trend? Have you considered a study to generate a volatility-neutral average low-to-close tick reading?

 

Looking forward to reading more - please PM me if you do move to a seperate thread.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

 

============================================

 

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the

forum. Thank you.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

This is a fascinating study and exactly the sort of thing that I joined this forum for. Might it be worth posting this as a seperate thread to avoid pissing off TheRumpledOne?

 

Do you have any ideas yet about how you'd go about buying close to the daily low? Have you looked at how the average low-to-close ticks are impacted upon by the long term trend? Have you considered a study to generate a volatility-neutral average low-to-close tick reading?

 

Looking forward to reading more - please PM me if you do move to a seperate thread.

 

NO, it won't "piss me off". The post is ON TOPIC.

[foxterbotello 10]

hello greetings fantastic I think what you do and your method of negotiation as a rat, I have a question rookie, as I do in my charts to see the list of currencies in which you seek an opportunity where they exit all high and all the lower of each pair of currency ..

 

as I put on my screen?

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

 

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

 

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

hello greetings fantastic I think what you do and your method of negotiation as a rat, I have a question rookie, as I do in my charts to see the list of currencies in which you seek an opportunity where they exit all high and all the lower of each pair of currency ..

 

as I put on my screen?

 

I take it English is not your first language.

 

I don't understand what you are asking.

[foxterbotello 10]

I take it English is not your first language.

 

I don't understand what you are asking.

 

 

hello again: D..! my English is not very good, I apologize ..

 

Here I am sending a picture to understand what I mean......!!!

 

!!!!........the method seems very good and simple, I understand completely.........!!

[SIUYA 11]

hello again: D..! my English is not very good, I apologize ..

 

Here I am sending a picture to understand what I mean......!!!

 

!!!!........the method seems very good and simple, I understand completely.........!!

 

are you asking TRO ---- How do or where do I get this indicator to put on your screen?

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

The chart shows the frequency distribution of HIGH MINUS CLOSE and CLOSE MINUS LOW.

 

If the candle is RED and you are a GREEN RAT, then close minus low is the bottom wick.

 

If the candle is GREEN and you are a GREEN RAT, then close minus low is the candle body PLUS the bottom wick.

 

Note how many times CLOSE MINUS LOW is less than 20.

 

Do you see the "edge"?

 

This is only 10 bars of daily data. But the indicator can be set for hundreds or thousands of bars.

 

Perhaps this will help you understand the reason this method is profitable.

 

=============================================

 

1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

 

============================================

 

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

are you asking TRO ---- How do or where do I get this indicator to put on your screen?

 

Everyone knows I am NOT allowed to answer questions like this.

 

A google search only takes a few seconds.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

 

1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

 

============================================

 

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

 

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

 

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

[SIUYA 11]

Hi TRO,

I was curious and pondering a few things and today was an example of something that can be a potential killer (mentally) in systems like yours, on days like today in the AUDUSD where the pair just traded up against its high, or down against the low of the day (depending on how/when you measure it from it might be different)

 

But when you have cases like this, do you find in your experience it all just washes out and while you might take a lot of small looses, you only need one to really go your way to make it back.....because if you trail a stop to close could you not find your winners still not capturing the losses....

 

without you reiterating you are a dedicated rat....

 

I was wondering what your experience on this was.??????

eg; times this occurs, tricks you use to avoid it, or just plow ahead.

 

(or do you use other filters - I would think not as a non Yale student )

 

I ask for a couple of reasons given debates about closes, etc, and also while mucking around trying to automate stuff, i figure If I can make it work I would be happy to join the rat race.

 

my crude/rough mock up - i think, the bands are the 20-10 pts ranges from the highs and lows, the blue dots, buys, the green dots the initial stop

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=27476&stc=1&d=1329504283

thanks.

Edited February 17, 2012 by SIUYA

[jswanson 10]

This is a continuation from my previous post where I explore the number of ticks the Euro currency future closes from its intraday low.

 

In the original post I looked at a 5-year period starting on January 30, 2012. That post looked at each day. In this post I want to introduce a 200-sma filter to break the market into two modes: bullish and bearish.

 

My question is: does the market mode impact the number of ticks available?

 

LONG TRADES

All Trades Regardless of Market Mode: 66 ticks

Trades Taken Only When Price Above 200-SMA (Bull Market): 64 ticks

Trades Taken Only When Price Below 200-SMA (Bear Market): 70 ticks

 

According to these initial findings, going long when price is trading BELOW the 200 day simple moving average might provide more tick potential. Granted it's small. In reality, the median tick value does not change much.

 

SHORT TRADES

All Trades Regardless of Market Mode: 63 ticks

Trades Taken Only When Price Above 200-SMA (Bull Market): 82 ticks

Trades Taken Only When Price Below 200-SMA (Bear Market): 53 ticks

 

According to these initial findings, gong short when price is ABOVE the 200-day simple moving average might provide more tick potential.

 

Strangely, the optimal median ticks available are when 1) shorting a bull market and 2) going long during a bear market. Counterintuitive, but thats what the numbers say at this time.

 

I still want to explore if there are particular times during day when a low/high are established.

[SIUYA 11]

jswanson - thanks. Interesting.

FYI - Years ago I did a similar test on many different stocks. Deliberately choosing bull and bear markets with hindsight in a number of ways - to ensure I saw the best and worst of the best and worst. I used equities as they clearly had open and close prices - with FX where and when you close might have a difference - but I expect not

What I found was that in bull markets, and bear markets the split between bullish days and bearish days was about 50-50.

This at first seems surprising, but when you consider it is all about the magnitude of moves then it puts it in perspective.

So maybe this could be an extra measure to look at, also what does happen if you radically change the open and close of the FX day? Plus what are the number of losses you have to go through to actually strike a winner?

thanks.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

 

"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

 

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

 

P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

 

=============================================

 

"Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

 

1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

 

2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

 

They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

 

They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

 

=============================================

 

1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

 

============================================

 

WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

 

Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.

 

One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, ), then why isn't everybody doing it?"

 

Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!

 

We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?

 

We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?

 

We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?

 

We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?

 

The list is almost endless.

 

As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

 

Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.

 

=============================================

 

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

Hi TRO,

I was curious and pondering a few things and today was an example of something that can be a potential killer (mentally) in systems like yours, on days like today in the AUDUSD where the pair just traded up against its high, or down against the low of the day (depending on how/when you measure it from it might be different)

 

But when you have cases like this, do you find in your experience it all just washes out and while you might take a lot of small looses, you only need one to really go your way to make it back.....because if you trail a stop to close could you not find your winners still not capturing the losses....

 

without you reiterating you are a dedicated rat....

 

I was wondering what your experience on this was.??????

eg; times this occurs, tricks you use to avoid it, or just plow ahead.

 

(or do you use other filters - I would think not as a non Yale student )

 

I ask for a couple of reasons given debates about closes, etc, and also while mucking around trying to automate stuff, i figure If I can make it work I would be happy to join the rat race.

 

my crude/rough mock up - i think, the bands are the 20-10 pts ranges from the highs and lows, the blue dots, buys, the green dots the initial stop

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=27476&stc=1&d=1329504283

thanks.

 

Do not OVER TRADE!

 

If you find yourself taking a lot of small losses then refine your entry trigger.

[SIUYA 11]

I agree TRO - dont over trade....

 

so what you are saying is that you must apply a filter of some sort to these trades.

Otherwise, every time you have (in this case) a red bar, green bar on a 1 minute chart, within the 20 ticks from the low range you would have to take it.

 

In your experience

What is the filter for the Rat? Why is it some trades are worth taking, while others are not?

Is it just a matter of context?

or is to trade like a rat just a metaphor?

 

thanks.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

 

FIBS uses a fixed percentage, the RAT ZONE uses a fixed amount. You can use a frequency distribution on both.

[SIUYA 11]

 

 

FIBS uses a fixed percentage, the RAT ZONE uses a fixed amount. You can use a frequency distribution on both.

 

not sure if this is directed at my last question, or exactly what this means, however at a guess

 

as the Rat reversals are mean reverting on a day basis at least, are you saying that you should also apply something similar on a yearly basis, ie; look for the yearly to mean revert also, ie; be a selling rat on the USDEUR, and a buying Rat on the USDCAD???

 

If so, when you say to only go one way -choose a side, only be a red or green rat.....then surely this must change ???

 

thanks.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20) - that is OPPORTUNITY

 

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

 

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

 

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

 

Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS.

 

THINK ABOUT IT!!

 

 

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

 

MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

 

STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)

 

POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

 

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

 

1) To trade like a RAT is to ALWAYS trade in ONE DIRECTION - either LONG or SHORT. Once you pick a "team", you can't switch.

 

2) The "within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily high/low" is the BEST possible entry to get the maximum run BUT the RAT REVERSAL entry works ANYWHERE on the chart.

 

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

 

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

 

1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

 

============================================

 

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the

forum. Thank you.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

Do you see the when there was an opportunity to make 20+ pips?

 

Traders in my free chatroom got it.