Never Lose Again!! TheRumpledOne

[steve46 12]

Historically the general (long term) drift of financial markets is up

 

That drift is punctuated periodically by "black swan" events that tend to be pointed down....

 

One might benefit (if he or she had the resources necessary) by doing an analysis of the difference between secular and cyclical market swings. Most retail traders aren't willing to spend the time necessary to do that research. As a result I would guess that most of you do not know how to accurately determine which type of market we are currently in...the result of that deficit is that for the majority of retail traders, you have about a 50/50 chance of getting "surprised" and taken out by the odd "event"....

 

In my office we used to have a kind of fire drill that we went through periodically just to practice our response to the odd "black swan" event....as I recall, we did not do this to try to avoid the event completely but to minimize the losses that we forecast would occur. One of those measures was to prefer the short side as risk was perceived to increase past a specific threshold...sorry I can't be more specific but I owe an allegiance to old colleagues who are still active..

 

Good luck

[karelk 10]

Historically the general (long term) drift of financial markets is up

 

Forex being an exception, of course

[Joseph Connors 10]

Historically the general (long term) drift of financial markets is up

 

 

 

If the metric you use to judge that is the market indexes, then I would have to disagree. Those indices are constantly re-balanced. Older stocks dropped, new ones added. The DJIA and SP500 of today bare little to no relationship to those indices of the past.

[SIUYA 11]

If the metric you use to judge that is the market indexes, then I would have to disagree. Those indices are constantly re-balanced. Older stocks dropped, new ones added. The DJIA and SP500 of today bare little to no relationship to those indices of the past.

 

you can always just trade the index.....

however the contango and backwardation will likely be the biggest effect on the PL.

 

more interesting is working out if the black swans can be predicted and if value can be found against the trend, or if there are "heads up" before they occur.

[zdo 20]

… taking it more and more off topic ...

 

The best way I’ve found to be prepared for black swans is

Long the PM’s (it doesn’t hurt to have an avg entry < than 1/3 current price, btw) and

Short the indexes via timely / cyclical selling into weakness (but sometimes strength) and lifting cyclically …PLUS always having ‘break out’ stop entry orders resting below )

 

There are similar bond and fx (USD) plays also …

 

btw, I used to ‘believe’ in this position, but I’ve worked through it… I no longer ‘depend’ on PM’s for long term ‘safe haven’ … and also acknowledge that indexes could hold up even in major black swans ie they could nominally go way way up and still not be in a ‘bull’ market… One thing to consider though that this 12 year sideways correction (which was accurately ‘predicted’ by several good ellioticicians btw ) is soon due to be over and done with… over via a black swan? who knows? …

working out if the black swans can be predicted

Every past and future black swan has been predicted ... but the part of the 'predictions' that seems to be always wrong is when ...

 

Avery, may you Never Lose Again

Are you trading more instruments since you went up time frame?

[SIUYA 11]

 

Every past and future black swan has been predicted ... but the part of the 'predictions' that seems to be always wrong is when ...

 

 

Exactly every bear and bull will have their day in the sun......

 

It is interesting though when you consider a lot of equity market crashes, they usually had good falls before they really had what was considered the event......the timing, and the holding on was the hard part. Or alternatively the TRO option of only trading one way and crossing the fingers might work just as well.

 

(Friends were putting on some big positions when the twin towers were hit and only managed to have 1/3 of what they wanted on - they made a lot of money and were embarrassed that they felt it should have been three times as large due to the black swan going their way.)

[TheRumpledOne 14]

Saying "Let's say you are unlucky" is not a very good argument. I can counter by "Let's say I am lucky and I catch a LONG BLACK SWAN in my direction and then catch a SHORT BLACK SWAN in my direction. I win big 2 times. But if I only traded one way, I would have got caught by one of them." That doesn't lead anywhere. And as they are unpredictable, we can't say which way they'll go. So we can't say whether long or short wold be better at avoiding them.

 

What we can say is that by using a stop loss, the loss caused by a Black Swan wouldn't be big, but just one more normal loss. However, if we catch one in our direction, the win is very likely to be BIG. In which case we should welcome them.

 

Or can you tell which way they'll go?

 

You are correct, BLACK SWANS are unpredictable and that one reason to only be exposed in one direction.

 

No, the price can blow right past your stop loss in a BLACK SWAN situation.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

…

 

Are you trading more instruments since you went up time frame?

 

No. There is no need to trade more instruments.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

Every "trend" reversal will start with a "price turn" pattern on the chart.

 

Identifying this pattern on all of the time frames will help you select trade direction.

 

I prefer to trade with the WEEKLY direction rather than against it.

 

When price turns against the weekly direction on lower time frames, I wait.

 

I will enter when price turns back to the weekly direction.

 

It is even better when weekly and monthly are in sync.

 

All you have to do is LOOK at the charts and SEE!!

[TheRumpledOne 14]

 

Some people understand better in English than in pictures, charts, tables, etc...

[Blaiserboy 10]

[ I AM PLAYING MY GAME/I]

 

Oh I know very well the game you are playing Avery. My aim is to see that newbies and hopefuls know your game too.

 

And of course you don't have a satellite or smart 'phone. If you did it would enable you to more easily post your trades in advance wouldn't it? However, I'm sure readers of this thread will accept notice in advance of your trades in any time frame whenever you can post them.

 

Over several years and many forums TRO has been a reliable poster and generous with help to newbies. As you mature in the trading business you will learn to understand his techniques and methods which have proven to be quite profitable long term.

[TLUser 10]

Whilst I thank you for your comments and advices (for your ready reference your comment is copied hereunder) I note with regret that you are either in cahoots with TRO or you may have been seduced by the number of eyeballs TRO brings to TL. I use the word seduce because I find it hard to believe that someone who runs a trading forum is sufficiently disingenuous to fall for TRO's particular brand of snake oil.

 

All TRO has to do to prove his veracity and the value of his signals is to post his trades, based on his signals, in advance for say a week or a fortnight. If you like, if TRO will agree, I'll post my trades in advance also and the competition may even get you a few more eyeballs :-)

 

As for my "maturing in the trading business," since I am in my 80s and have lived and traded, professionally, a multitude of financial instruments in Europe, the US, HK and London for sixty years, I believe that I am already "mature."

 

 

"Over several years and many forums TRO has been a reliable poster and generous with help to newbies. As you mature in the trading business you will learn to understand his techniques and methods which have proven to be quite profitable long term."

[TheRumpledOne 14]

WHAT IF YOU WERE COLORBLIND...

 

 

Could you trade?

 

 

Does that help you see when PRICE TURNS?

[TheRumpledOne 14]

Whilst I thank you for your comments and advices (for your ready reference your comment is copied hereunder) I note with regret that you are either in cahoots with TRO or you may have been seduced by the number of eyeballs TRO brings to TL. I use the word seduce because I find it hard to believe that someone who runs a trading forum is sufficiently disingenuous to fall for TRO's particular brand of snake oil.

 

All TRO has to do to prove his veracity and the value of his signals is to post his trades, based on his signals, in advance for say a week or a fortnight. If you like, if TRO will agree, I'll post my trades in advance also and the competition may even get you a few more eyeballs :-)

 

As for my "maturing in the trading business," since I am in my 80s and have lived and traded, professionally, a multitude of financial instruments in Europe, the US, HK and London for sixty years, I believe that I am already "mature."

 

 

"Over several years and many forums TRO has been a reliable poster and generous with help to newbies. As you mature in the trading business you will learn to understand his techniques and methods which have proven to be quite profitable long term."

 

I post my strategy:

 

 

1) price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

 

2) red candle closes

 

3) green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.

 

4) enter long at the green candle's high price

 

5) STOP LOSS IS 10 PIPS

 

6) Take whatever profit you can.

 

7) If the rules do not mention it, then it is of no concern.

 

 

You can see IN ADVANCE when a trade is setting up. By the time I post the trade, it's over. That is the reason I post the rules so you can see the setup in real time.

[TLUser 10]

"[You can see IN ADVANCE when a trade is setting up. By the time I post the trade, it's over. That is the reason I post the rules so you can see the setup in real time. "/I]

 

There you go again Avery. Waffle, waffle and yet more waffle. Without going into a complete Deridian Deconstruction of your post 1259 can you hear yourself? Viz:

 

"Every "trend" reversal will start with a "price turn" pattern on the chart."

 

"Identifying this pattern on all of the time frames will help you select trade direction." and

 

"All you have to do is LOOK at the charts and SEE!!"

 

Wow! Really - who'da thought it?

 

 

Anyway, if your trades are over before you have time to post them implies that you must be scalping? If so that's rather odd. In your post 1259 you mention that you watch the weekly and monthly charts and as the expert you are you will know that these time frames have little application to scalping. So, I think you would have the time to post your trades in advance.

 

Alternatively, I see that TL is setting up a trading competition. Unfortunately its just going to be simulated trading and, as you will know, simulated trading bears no relation whatsoever to real trading. Perhaps brokers offer simulated because it's so easy that it sucks in the Newbies into opening cash accounts?

 

Anyway, why don't you enter the competition using your system, what is now: "Never Lose Again, Drain the Banks, Buzzard Reversal, Rock Paper Scissors, Mother_Lode etc etc? Ah! Now I remember, it's trade like RAT.

 

Any fool can post any chart and ask:

 

"CAN YOU SEE WHY 95% OF TRADERS LOSE?"

 

But eventually the Newbies and Hopefuls will conclude, some sooner than later, that it's easy to post guru type statements without posting the answer.

 

Avery, if you, your systems and your indicators are everything you say they are you could post your trades in advance or enter the TL competion. Produce good results and all the Newbies and Hopefuls on here will beat a path to your door and patronise you as an introducing broker and buy your paid indicators.

[SIUYA 11]

TLUser,

I think Avery has actually answered previously that there is some discretion involved, but its easy to see in advance - first 20 pips from the high or low, then red or green bar.....watch high or low.....otherwise you could set and forget an auto trader. There are various money management techniques you can choose after entering.

 

All TRO has provided is a rather simple and quite effective way for triggering an entry and some simple rules to follow to do so, which might actually help some new traders focus on simplicity....whats wrong with that?

 

what system are you using, i am sure someone could help you program the alert to come up, and then all you have to do is choose to take it or not.

 

and no I am not a TRO cohort, cultist or anything like that.....I just think he does his thing, its straightforward and if it works for him then great, and I dont believe there is one ANSWER, just possibilities.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

"[You can see IN ADVANCE when a trade is setting up. By the time I post the trade, it's over. That is the reason I post the rules so you can see the setup in real time. "/I]

 

There you go again Avery. Waffle, waffle and yet more waffle. Without going into a complete Deridian Deconstruction of your post 1259 can you hear yourself? Viz:

 

"Every "trend" reversal will start with a "price turn" pattern on the chart."

 

"Identifying this pattern on all of the time frames will help you select trade direction." and

 

"All you have to do is LOOK at the charts and SEE!!"

 

Wow! Really - who'da thought it?

 

 

Anyway, if your trades are over before you have time to post them implies that you must be scalping? If so that's rather odd. In your post 1259 you mention that you watch the weekly and monthly charts and as the expert you are you will know that these time frames have little application to scalping. So, I think you would have the time to post your trades in advance.

 

Alternatively, I see that TL is setting up a trading competition. Unfortunately its just going to be simulated trading and, as you will know, simulated trading bears no relation whatsoever to real trading. Perhaps brokers offer simulated because it's so easy that it sucks in the Newbies into opening cash accounts?

 

Anyway, why don't you enter the competition using your system, what is now: "Never Lose Again, Drain the Banks, Buzzard Reversal, Rock Paper Scissors, Mother_Lode etc etc? Ah! Now I remember, it's trade like RAT.

 

Any fool can post any chart and ask:

 

"CAN YOU SEE WHY 95% OF TRADERS LOSE?"

 

But eventually the Newbies and Hopefuls will conclude, some sooner than later, that it's easy to post guru type statements without posting the answer.

 

Avery, if you, your systems and your indicators are everything you say they are you could post your trades in advance or enter the TL competion. Produce good results and all the Newbies and Hopefuls on here will beat a path to your door and patronise you as an introducing broker and buy your paid indicators.

 

It should be obvious to the reader that with your 6 posts on this forum you have done nothing but attack the messenger. I think the readers would prefer you to start your own thread and share your wisdom there.

[TLUser 10]

TLUser,

I think Avery has actually answered previously that there is some discretion involved, but its easy to see in advance - first 20 pips from the high or low, then red or green bar.....watch high or low.....otherwise you could set and forget an auto trader. There are various money management techniques you can choose after entering.

 

All TRO has provided is a rather simple and quite effective way for triggering an entry and some simple rules to follow to do so, which might actually help some new traders focus on simplicity....whats wrong with that?

 

what system are you using, i am sure someone could help you program the alert to come up, and then all you have to do is choose to take it or not.

 

and no I am not a TRO cohort, cultist or anything like that.....I just think he does his thing, its straightforward and if it works for him then great, and I dont believe there is one ANSWER, just possibilities.

 

Thank you for your response. Although one could argue that discretion is built into the coding (if/and/when/or etc) of high frequency computer trading (HFCT), except perhaps for HFCT some discretion is involved in any type of trading. As Bishop George Berkely put it: "Esse Est Percipi." You perceive TRO's pointing out that discretion is involved as a credible justification of him whereas I see it as just another one of his: "Get out of goal Free" cards. Sort like the way he takes "donations" for some of his indicators instead of selling them.

 

You ask me "what system are you using?" Although on the basis of full disclosure I will confess to taking a very occasional peek at the CCI I very rarely take it into account. I don't use systems or indicators so I doubt the way I trade could be programmed.

 

Broker statements can be dummied up and sim trading doesn't count. If you or anyone else is making money using ANY of Avery's "methods" let you, him or her post their trades in advance. If they come out ahead I will be delighted to eat crow and sing TRO's praises.

[TLUser 10]

"[/it should be obvious to the reader that with your 6 posts on this forum you have done nothing but attack the messenger. I think the readers would prefer you to start your own thread and share your wisdom there. "I]

 

Avery, you are so predictable you are precious.

 

I don't have much time to frequent FX or any other forums for that matter. However, when I received a reminding from TL I did a scan of TL and when I saw you posting away, in the spirit of helping other traders, I decided to ask you to validate your method by posting your trades in advance. Think of the accolades and business validation would bring you. You could even rename your club 3 percent :-)

[Blaiserboy 10]

"[/it should be obvious to the reader that with your 6 posts on this forum you have done nothing but attack the messenger. I think the readers would prefer you to start your own thread and share your wisdom there. "I]

 

Avery, you are so predictable you are precious.

 

I don't have much time to frequent FX or any other forums for that matter. However, when I received a reminding from TL I did a scan of TL and when I saw you posting away, in the spirit of helping other traders, I decided to ask you to validate your method by posting your trades in advance. Think of the accolades and business validation would bring you. You could even rename your club 3 percent :-)

 

Why not configure a chart and learn to trade it instead of attempting to destroy what was a great thread..? Conversely, start a thread of your own and post your junk in there for all to see... In any event, please respect the readers of this thread. Thank you

[SIUYA 11]

Thank you for your response. Although one could argue that discretion is built into the coding (if/and/when/or etc) of high frequency computer trading (HFCT), except perhaps for HFCT some discretion is involved in any type of trading. As Bishop George Berkely put it: "Esse Est Percipi." You perceive TRO's pointing out that discretion is involved as a credible justification of him whereas I see it as just another one of his: "Get out of goal Free" cards. Sort like the way he takes "donations" for some of his indicators instead of selling them.

 

I dont view anything TRO says as justification - if I could paraphase him all he says is - keep it simple, and dont think too much about it - be the RAT.

 

 

You ask me "what system are you using?" Although on the basis of full disclosure I will confess to taking a very occasional peek at the CCI I very rarely take it into account. I don't use systems or indicators so I doubt the way I trade could be programmed.

 

Broker statements can be dummied up and sim trading doesn't count. If you or anyone else is making money using ANY of Avery's "methods" let you, him or her post their trades in advance. If they come out ahead I will be delighted to eat crow and sing TRO's praises.

 

Sorry I was being a little cheeky - when you asked about how to see the trades before they happened, I asked what platform/system/front end you were using, there are many ways to give you a heads up when on of his methods might be used to enter a trade. I could not care what strategy system you might be using.

 

I use a similar method (and yet also completely different) to Averys - and I suggest most people who are profitable do similar things - I try to buy things that go up, and sell things that go down, (its very hard to make money any other way) and use some rather simple methods.

A lot of them you cannot post in advance - they require discretion for

1...do I want to be bullish or bearish,

2...is the market going to agree with me,

3....if and when it does I have no idea when this could occur....and for how long this might continue.....this is a game of probabilities for me.

 

Simple fact for me is, the key is in the trade management, and entry is just one element of it. (I would love to automate many things I do, but so far I have been unsuccessful at that aspect of it - semi automation is the best I can manage)

 

He has been very forthcoming when people have asked him questions, (maybe a little cryptic) however it appears you have other issues with him that you are not disclosing. As others suggest - start you own thread on it, otherwise I am sure if you asked questions related to his thoughts on this thread he might be forthcoming with answers.

[TLUser 10]

Thank you for your courteous response. I have no issues with Avery other than the same issue I have with all the sure fire get rich quick systems vendors, namely that they prey, unmercifully, upon newbies. In many ways I quite like Avery. Although I acknowledge that it may be borne of necessity, I admire his irrepressibility. And as any experienced trader will tell you, his posts are always good for a chuckle.

 

What I find reprehensible about him is that he shades the truth. A typical example is his constant use of paralepsis to imply that he has been banned from multiple FX forums because of pressure from brokers who "sponsor" forums. The truth is that most FX websites have a policy of not allowing advertising in their forums, indeed some have a section where vendors can subscribe to post their offerings and some may pay to post banner ads on the sites.

 

However, Avery either doesn't have the money or is too tight fisted to spend his money subscribing to the commercial sections or buy ads so he frequents the non-commercial forums, untill he gets banned, where he advertises by implication. Viz:

 

"Did you get that? Traders in my trading room did."

 

"I'm not allowed to post where you may get my indicators but you may Google for the information."

 

And as I've said in a previous post, although he doesn't "sell" his indicators, to get them you have to make a "donation."

 

And in his trading room he touts that he is an "introducing broker."

 

I can cite similar subterfuges of his but the foregoing should paint the picture for anyone who, to quote yet another TROism "IF YOU LOOK YOU WILL SEE."

 

Have you asked yourself why Avery spends so much time posting and has a trading room? Of course you have, so maybe it's TL which has an agenda to keep him posting :-)

 

I've given seminars and held trading workshops on the "net." One of the things I have learnt is that although they know little of trading, newbies and those who are full of hope really believe, with the fervour of religious fanatics, that aided by the latest indicators from their current guru and a few clicks of a mouse, they too can have the private jet, the Savile Row suits and the

penthouse in the city from which they can helicopter to their country estate. If they stick at it then a few years and several blown accounts later, if they find a winning strategy, with very, very few exceptions, they'll keep it to themselves.

 

Good Luck to you too.

 

TLUser

[Blaiserboy 10]

Why do we feel it necessary to have TRO post his qualifications considering that his method has allowed a ton of people to make some good money.? Is it a sport that we have to indulge in...? What do we accomplish by this......? Why do we want to divert the purpose of the thread..?

[TLUser 10]

Why do we feel it necessary to have TRO post his qualifications considering that his method has allowed a ton of people to make some good money.? Is it a sport that we have to indulge in...? What do we accomplish by this......? Why do we want to divert the purpose of the thread..?

 

You have me at a disadvantage because, to the best of my recollection, unless you equate asking him to prove his methods by factual demonstrations as a "qualification" I have never asked him for any qualifications.

 

And you have me at a further disadvantage because, although "a ton of money" means more to a beggar than a millionaire, I have never come across anyone "who has made a ton of money" via TRO with any consistency. As you will know, many people starting out in trading make money. Along with the ease of making money in sim accounts (that's why the charlatans of the trading room world use sim accounts) it is one of the seductions which leads to eventual failure in trading so, consistency over time in the mix is very necessary.

 

I am NOT trying to destroy this thread. I just wanted TRO to post his trades in advance so that newbies could gauge for themselves the veracity of his claims. I really would be delighted to see TRO prove that his "system" worked.

 

Anyway I won't post anymore but I wish you all the best of success and leave you with President Ronald Reagan's statement:

 

"Trust but verify.".

[zdo 20]

...unless you equate asking him to prove his methods by factual demonstrations as a "qualification" I have never asked him for any qualifications.

 

And you have me at a further disadvantage because, although "a ton of money" means more to a beggar than a millionaire, I have never come across anyone "who has made a ton of money" via TRO with any consistency. As you will know, many people starting out in trading make money. Along with the ease of making money in sim accounts (that's why the charlatans of the trading room world use sim accounts) it is one of the seductions which leads to eventual failure in trading so, consistency over time in the mix is very necessary.

 

I am NOT trying to destroy this thread. I just wanted TRO to post his trades in advance so that newbies could gauge for themselves the veracity of his claims. I really would be delighted to see TRO prove that his "system" worked.

 

... I wish you all the best of success and leave you with President Ronald Reagan's statement:

 

"Trust but verify.".

 

Thanks for clarifying your intentions.

 

TRO's selling is like holding a garage sale out in the middle of the desert. This does not call for marketing studies, producing commercials or other promotions, providing a track record, nurturing a reputation (even though… )… He simply throws the stuff out in the front yard and if you want something you give him a little bit of money and take it. ... and this particular thread is like getting stuff out of the free box instead of paying for it.

 

Publishing signals requires that EVERY signal be assiduously published. That is work! Understandably not worth it to TRO or most small vendors. GBPUSD is within 15 tick of it's low right now... you're asking him to post every time such a condition is true. Requesting such is sort of the equivalent of asking every real yard sale on the planet to meet some petty ass code requirements

Plus, Noob derives far more by taking, ‘posting’, and auditing his own experience of the signals… It’s not the system! It’s the trader’s fit with a system that matters. TRO posting “live” has no benefit to noobs’ finding out if they are a fit to the system.