Never Lose Again!! TheRumpledOne

[TheRumpledOne 14]

2012.07.03 DAILY RAT REPORT

 

 

GBPUSD showed a RED RAT REVERSAL setup with the daily open at/near the weekly open.

 

The BUY ZONE entry is used at/near the daily and/or weekly open.

 

I am also working on the DYNAMIC HIGHEST GREEN OPEN/LOWEST RED OPEN indicator.

 

 

Long for short opportunities at the HIGHEST GREEN OPEN and long opportunities at the LOWEST RED OPEN.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

Hi Rumplestilskins

Your method is quite simple to follow

And its a scalp so brokerage must be minimal

I have two questions

If you have answered them elsewhere, please bear with me.

Is there a scientific reason why you can only trade in one direction?:question:

How did you decide on the grey lines every 25 pips/ points?:question:

kind regards

bobc

 

Q) Is there a scientific reason why you can only trade in one direction?

 

A) Yes. If you only trade in ONE DIRECTION then you can't be wrong ALL THE TIME. Most traders seem to ALWAYS be on the wrong side of the trade. By only trading in one direction sooner or later you'll be right.

 

The second reason is to protect against BLACK SWANS. By only trading in one direction, there is a chance a BLACK SWAN event can work in your favor.

 

Q) How did you decide on the grey lines every 25 pips/ points?

 

A) I am not sure exactly what you are asking. Prices that end in 00, 25, 50 and 75 are PSYCHOLOGICAL. There is usually a lot of action around these areas.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

2012.07.04 DAILY RAT REPORT

 

 

The AUDUSD had the RAT REVERSAL setup today but took back the profits if you didn't take them first. Price bounced up off of the weekly open only to return.

 

It's the 4th of July but why is America celebrating? INDEPENDENT FROM WHAT?

[bobcollett 10]

Q) Is there a scientific reason why you can only trade in one direction?

 

A) Yes. If you only trade in ONE DIRECTION then you can't be wrong ALL THE TIME. Most traders seem to ALWAYS be on the wrong side of the trade. By only trading in one direction sooner or later you'll be right.

 

The second reason is to protect against BLACK SWANS. By only trading in one direction, there is a chance a BLACK SWAN event can work in your favor.

 

Q) How did you decide on the grey lines every 25 pips/ points?

 

A) I am not sure exactly what you are asking. Prices that end in 00, 25, 50 and 75 are PSYCHOLOGICAL. There is usually a lot of action around these areas.

 

Hi Rumplestilskins

More questions

So if the market is falling and you have selected to only trade long, you walk away?

Please explain how a BLACK SWAN could work in my favour.

 

kind regards

bobc

[4EverMaAT 10]

Hi Rumplestilskins

More questions

So if the market is falling and you have selected to only trade long, you walk away?

Please explain how a BLACK SWAN could work in my favour.

 

kind regards

bobc

 

I'm assuming that a "black swan" is a fast moving market in a single direction. Well, eventually there will be a pullback and you have the opportunity to get out at a smaller loss, breakeven, or profit. The market cannot go in a single direction all the time. Even during a news announcement, a 23.6-38.2% minimum pullback from the top is virtually guaranteed. If not immediately, shortly afterwards.

 

You do have "tsunamis", but they are extremely rare and you can usually 'detect' them coming and minimize the loss.

[MightyMouse 12]

A "Black Swan" is an event that is thought to not have a chance of occurring or its chance of occurring is so remote that it is discounted. It is, therefore, not accounted for in the pricing of a market.

 

I don't see how trading in only one direction all the time is helpful. If instead you say only trade in the direction of trend, I'll be willing to buy it.

[SIUYA 11]

A "Black Swan" is an event that is thought to not have a chance of occurring or its chance of occurring is so remote that it is discounted. It is, therefore, not accounted for in the pricing of a market.

 

I don't see how trading in only one direction all the time is helpful. If instead you say only trade in the direction of trend, I'll be willing to buy it.

 

At a guess, I think trading with a trend could certainly make a difference, and it would likely let you get on any black swan event - the point being that if you are on at an extreme (ie; near the high or low for the day depending on direction) you would expect that a reversal toward the mean could accelerate.

This is why you need some discretion of when to apply it.

 

I also think trading in only one direction would certainly stop confusion, and the temptation to reverse and hence possibly compound problems if that is an issue. I think there is a lot of merit in it. Clears the mind, allows focus to say, I am not trying to capture every move, I am just looking for longs (or shorts) and the best opportunity for those....the rest I ignore.

 

Or as TRO says he looks at stats showing which currencies revert back away from their highs and lows.....hence if there is a significant statistical reason to only trade in one direction then why argue with it.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

2012.07.05 DAILY RAT REPORT

 

 

USDCHF had the RAT REVERSAL setup. Once price broke through the ATR ZONE, it was time to move the stop up and protect profit.

 

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

Hi Rumplestilskins

More questions

So if the market is falling and you have selected to only trade long, you walk away?

Please explain how a BLACK SWAN could work in my favour.

 

kind regards

bobc

 

If you are LONG and something UNEXPECTED happens to cause price to rise by hundreds of pips then you just benefited from a BLACK SWAN event.

 

If you are SHORT and something UNEXPECTED happens to cause price to drop by hundreds of pips then you just benefited from a BLACK SWAN event.

 

If you only chose to trade in one direction then only one of the above can go against you.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

A "Black Swan" is an event that is thought to not have a chance of occurring or its chance of occurring is so remote that it is discounted. It is, therefore, not accounted for in the pricing of a market.

 

I don't see how trading in only one direction all the time is helpful. If instead you say only trade in the direction of trend, I'll be willing to buy it.

 

TREND EXISTS ONLY IN THE MIND OF THE TRADER.

 

One trader looks at a weekly chart and sees trend going up while another on a 5 minute chart sees trend going down - THEY BOTH ARE "RIGHT".

[TheRumpledOne 14]

At a guess, I think trading with a trend could certainly make a difference, and it would likely let you get on any black swan event - the point being that if you are on at an extreme (ie; near the high or low for the day depending on direction) you would expect that a reversal toward the mean could accelerate.

This is why you need some discretion of when to apply it.

 

I also think trading in only one direction would certainly stop confusion, and the temptation to reverse and hence possibly compound problems if that is an issue. I think there is a lot of merit in it. Clears the mind, allows focus to say, I am not trying to capture every move, I am just looking for longs (or shorts) and the best opportunity for those....the rest I ignore.

 

Or as TRO says he looks at stats showing which currencies revert back away from their highs and lows.....hence if there is a significant statistical reason to only trade in one direction then why argue with it.

 

If you only trade in one direction, you can't always be on the unprofitable side of the trade... sooner or later, you'll be on the profitable side.

[bobcollett 10]

If you only trade in one direction, you can't always be on the unprofitable side of the trade... sooner or later, you'll be on the profitable side.

 

Hi Rumplestilskins

Your post gives me food for thought.

As a student of Taylor's 3 day cycle, maybe I should only trade the BUY day.

But then I'll be out of the market for a few days !!

regards

bobc

[TLUser 10]

Avery, Avery, Avery. Same tired old posts, questions answered with cut-n-paste abstract notions you hope sound philosophical and guruish, same tired old indicators but with a little twist and different names. All designed to lure the hopefuls and Newbies into your WEBsite to sell them something (do you still have a list of "special" indicators in addition to the free ones?) and join MB, for whom, I take it, you are still an IB?

 

Folks, anyone can post winning trades AFTER they've occurred. However, you may get to the bottom of TRO very quickly. If his latest system "Trade Like a Rat" is so simple and successful just ask him to post on here or email you his forecasts or his actual entries before he executes them. It shouldn't be a problem for him because if you look back you'll see that some of his charts are daily and hourly. Neither can he plead lack of Internet access on his "ranch" because now-a-days smart phones can access the net and if all else fails there's always satellite access.

 

* "Do you see when there was an opportunity to make 20+ pips?

 

Traders in my free chatroom got it. "

 

TRO post # 1200, this thread.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

2012.07.09 DAILY RAT REPORT

 

 

AUDUSD triggered a RED RAD REVERSAL at/near the weekly open.

 

The previous week's low, was a potential target or area to move the stop once penetrated.

 

 

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

Avery, Avery, Avery. Same tired old posts, questions answered with cut-n-paste abstract notions you hope sound philosophical and guruish, same tired old indicators but with a little twist and different names. All designed to lure the hopefuls and Newbies into your WEBsite to sell them something (do you still have a list of "special" indicators in addition to the free ones?) and join MB, for whom, I take it, you are still an IB?

 

Folks, anyone can post winning trades AFTER they've occurred. However, you may get to the bottom of TRO very quickly. If his latest system "Trade Like a Rat" is so simple and successful just ask him to post on here or email you his forecasts or his actual entries before he executes them. It shouldn't be a problem for him because if you look back you'll see that some of his charts are daily and hourly. Neither can he plead lack of Internet access on his "ranch" because now-a-days smart phones can access the net and if all else fails there's always satellite access.

 

* "Do you see when there was an opportunity to make 20+ pips?

 

Traders in my free chatroom got it. "

 

TRO post # 1200, this thread.

 

I have posted the rules of entry and the setup. Anyone can use them if they so desire.

The method hasn't changed much for years.

 

I don't use a smart phone nor do I have satellite. So I post when I can. I am not going to play your game... I AM PLAYING MY GAME. If you don't like it, you don't have to read my posts.

[TLUser 10]

[ I AM PLAYING MY GAME/I]

 

Oh I know very well the game you are playing Avery. My aim is to see that newbies and hopefuls know your game too.

 

And of course you don't have a satellite or smart 'phone. If you did it would enable you to more easily post your trades in advance wouldn't it? However, I'm sure readers of this thread will accept notice in advance of your trades in any time frame whenever you can post them.

[karelk 10]

I have two questions for TRO (or anyone else who has the answer)...

 

1. Say I become a green rat because the close was within 20 pips of daily low and then the reversal trade got triggered. Price then shot up and eventually closed within 20 pips of daily high - and then I see green candle, then a red candle passing the green candle's low ... why should I not switch team and become a red rat?

 

2. Cannot understand the Black Swan reason for trading only in one direction. Say I keep switching between red and green rat and a Black Swan happen to fly by. It seems to me that as I cannot predict which way the Swan will fly I have a 50/50 chance of profit/loss from it regardless of what colour I am.

 

TIA

[SIUYA 11]

I have two questions for TRO (or anyone else who has the answer)...

 

1. Say I become a green rat because the close was within 20 pips of daily low and then the reversal trade got triggered. Price then shot up and eventually closed within 20 pips of daily high - and then I see green candle, then a red candle passing the green candle's low ... why should I not switch team and become a red rat?

 

2. Cannot understand the Black Swan reason for trading only in one direction. Say I keep switching between red and green rat and a Black Swan happen to fly by. It seems to me that as I cannot predict which way the Swan will fly I have a 50/50 chance of profit/loss from it regardless of what colour I am.

 

TIA

 

1 and 2 are related

There is discretion required as to when to apply the entry trigger (Q1) - as well as waiting for it to be within the zone. Which leads to Q2....Ideally once on board your risk is limited (10 pips), and your upside is potentially unlimited. So unless you happen to enter at completely the wrong time, then by letting your entires run, you may just get on board a black swan.

If however by going both ways you will be exiting a long if having to go short....hence by going one way you may get on a black swan event by going both ways you are unlikely to as you will be exiting......of course you may just get lucky and short something, get the gap over night if you are not day trading....

(if that makes any sense)

[karelk 10]

1 and 2 are related

There is discretion required as to when to apply the entry trigger (Q1) - as well as waiting for it to be within the zone. Which leads to Q2....Ideally once on board your risk is limited (10 pips), and your upside is potentially unlimited. So unless you happen to enter at completely the wrong time, then by letting your entires run, you may just get on board a black swan.

If however by going both ways you will be exiting a long if having to go short....hence by going one way you may get on a black swan event by going both ways you are unlikely to as you will be exiting......of course you may just get lucky and short something, get the gap over night if you are not day trading....

(if that makes any sense)

 

Thank you for the reply. I do not see 1 and 2 related as I cannot see why the Black Swan should fly with my chosen direction. After all, Black Swans are by definition totally unpredictable.

 

Say I go long USD/JPY and there is a Black Swan at the bottom of the ocean and it contemplates emerging and stomping on Tokyo or New York. It's unlikely to take into consideration my trade.

 

But maybe I am missing someething?

[TheRumpledOne 14]

PRICE TURN

 

 

 

Price "turns" when the candle color of the current candle is not the same as the previous candle's color. In the above chart the candles that indicate a price turn up are marked in green and candles indicating the price turned down are marked in red.

 

You look for price to cross over the previous candle's open to confirm the turn has been made.

 

 

The DOTS on the candles mark the previous open price level. You can see where price crossed the previous open and then reversed. These are entry points.

 

If the previous candle has a red line then when price is at/near the previous open (red dot) and moving down, you enter the trade short.

 

If the previous candle has a greenline then when price is at/near the previous open (green dot) and moving down, you enter the trade long.

 

But you are only looking at one time frame and that's where the multimeter comes in handy...

 

 

Some trend traders like to enter on "PULLBACKS". The multimeter makes it easy to see when price is pulling back to the next higher time frame or continuing the "trend". The light blue color means price is going up and price went up on the previous bar. Think "light blue sky". The dark blue color means price is going down and price went down on the previous bar. Think "deep blue sea".

 

Look at the M15 chart and you can see price is now turning up and back to the "trend" on M30. H1 is turning up AGAINST the "trend" on H4 and D1. While price is turning down on W1 and going WITH the "trend" on MN1.

 

 

Please post any questions you have in this forum. PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH TRADING/INDICATOR QUESTIONS.

[TheRumpledOne 14]

Thank you for the reply. I do not see 1 and 2 related as I cannot see why the Black Swan should fly with my chosen direction. After all, Black Swans are by definition totally unpredictable.

 

Say I go long USD/JPY and there is a Black Swan at the bottom of the ocean and it contemplates emerging and stomping on Tokyo or New York. It's unlikely to take into consideration my trade.

 

But maybe I am missing someething?

 

Yes, you are missing the simplicity of THE RAT. If you trade both ways, you are exposing yourself to BLACK SWANS in both directions. Let's say you are unlucky and you get caught by a LONG BLACK SWAN and then get caught by a SHORT BLACK SWAN. You are down big 2 times. But if you only traded one way, you would have caught a BLACK SWAN in your direction.

 

Does that help?

[TheRumpledOne 14]

[ I AM PLAYING MY GAME/I]

 

Oh I know very well the game you are playing Avery. My aim is to see that newbies and hopefuls know your game too.

 

And of course you don't have a satellite or smart 'phone. If you did it would enable you to more easily post your trades in advance wouldn't it? However, I'm sure readers of this thread will accept notice in advance of your trades in any time frame whenever you can post them.

 

With 3 posts at the time of this posting, I see the game you are playing.

 

Newbies and hopefuls are ADULTS. They can think for themselves. They don't need you or the liberal democrats looking out for them. If you can't stay ON TOPIC, please don't post in this thread.

[karelk 10]

Yes, you are missing the simplicity of THE RAT. If you trade both ways, you are exposing yourself to BLACK SWANS in both directions. Let's say you are unlucky and you get caught by a LONG BLACK SWAN and then get caught by a SHORT BLACK SWAN. You are down big 2 times. But if you only traded one way, you would have caught a BLACK SWAN in your direction.

 

Saying "Let's say you are unlucky" is not a very good argument. I can counter by "Let's say I am lucky and I catch a LONG BLACK SWAN in my direction and then catch a SHORT BLACK SWAN in my direction. I win big 2 times. But if I only traded one way, I would have got caught by one of them." That doesn't lead anywhere. And as they are unpredictable, we can't say which way they'll go. So we can't say whether long or short wold be better at avoiding them.

 

What we can say is that by using a stop loss, the loss caused by a Black Swan wouldn't be big, but just one more normal loss. However, if we catch one in our direction, the win is very likely to be BIG. In which case we should welcome them.

 

Or can you tell which way they'll go?

[elovemer 10]

hey tro ,

 

check out the set up on the euro daily / weekly chart right now

[SIUYA 11]

Thank you for the reply. I do not see 1 and 2 related as I cannot see why the Black Swan should fly with my chosen direction. After all, Black Swans are by definition totally unpredictable.

 

Say I go long USD/JPY and there is a Black Swan at the bottom of the ocean and it contemplates emerging and stomping on Tokyo or New York. It's unlikely to take into consideration my trade.

 

But maybe I am missing someething?

 

no event takes into consideration what your ideas or trades actually are....unless you have super powers, or believe that as a government official you can control the markets and those black swan events.

 

I think the reality is that people are more likely than not to loose in black swan events - based on the idea that they occur because by their very nature it will hurt the most people.

So unless you are guru and can accurately pick tops and bottoms then go for it, trade both ways.....

there is reality and there is fantasy.....

Personally I like to trade both ways......but I can also see the benefits in what TRO says, and too often its hindsight that suggest to us that it was easy to see, we would have acted in a certain way..... The lure of "if only" i had done that.

 

Most traders have a natural inbuilt bias, as do many markets (test a strategy using an entry exit in a bull market - test the reverse for a bear market - results maybe vastly different) so why not play to your and the markets strengths and only go the way that makes the most money?

As mentioned its all personal......it is just an idea, a simple one, and often they work the best.