Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

As you know its a simple MACD crossover.

 

steve46, this is NOT what it's about at all... but you were never one to let facts get in the way of your opinions.

 

As I mentioned before, the primary signal occurs when the "signal line" crosses the "zero line" of the display. This component of the MACD is corellated to "trend"....if you miss that however you still have a second chance as the MACD line itself crosses the zero line.

 

you obviously don't even understand basic MACD let alone SPM. The "signal line" is a 9 period moving average of the MACD line and as such lags the MACD line. Spelling that out for you, this means it will cross the zero line before the signal line does, not after it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think its wonderful that you folks are having such success. I have asked a third party if they would do a backtest using the rules found in the original thread. Surely that will confirm all the success stories we are hearing from you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's the SPM strategy in EasyLanguage.

Someone can run it through the mill and see for himself.

 

inputs: FAVG(3),SAVG(9);

vars: FA(0),SA(0),FA1(0),SA1(0);

FA=average(close,FAVG);
SA=average(close,SAVG);

value1=0;
FA1=0;
SA1=0;

if FA<SA then begin
while FA1<=SA1 begin
	value1=value1+1;
	FA1=((FA*(FAVG-1))+(c+(value1*tick)))/FAVG;
	SA1=((SA*(SAVG-1))+(c+(value1*tick)))/SAVG;
end;
buy next bar at c+(value1*tick) stop;
end;

if FA>SA then begin
while FA1>=SA1 begin
	value1=value1+1;
	FA1=((FA*(FAVG-1))+(c-(value1*tick)))/FAVG;
	SA1=((SA*(SAVG-1))+(c-(value1*tick)))/SAVG;
end;
sell short next bar at c-(value1*tick) stop;
end;

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now as regards the concept of a "signal line"....here is the first post from the orignal thread

 

------------------

 

"2 min MACD on any of the emini contracts, watch for it to cross it's Moving Average Line with a Zero Line Cross, exceptionally high percentage trade, you can feel everyone jumping on.

Thing is just about every trader I know either only uses the MA cross, or the Zero Line cross... one is trend, the other is momentum... I cant believe how many good traders dont see that almost all the trades that really move have the combination of the two. They'll go long on a MA cross to the upside when it is well below the Zero Line and wonder why it fails and has no momentum

 

There has been 3 nice shorts in the last hour on the ER2 using that methodology, just nice little $200 scalps

 

Note: You can use a 9 period Simple Moving Average on the price chart to get you in a little earlier when you see it setting up"

 

--------------------------------------

 

As can be seen, the "setup" is the standard MACD with the option to get in "a little earlier" using the 9 period simple MA.

 

 

Clearly in the original thread, the 9 period simple moving average was NOT the signal, but rather an option that the trader could elect to use to get in earlier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh please steve46... first you said SPM was a "simple MACD crossover" (it is NOT), then you showed you don't understand MACD by writing the signal line crosses zero before the MACD line (it does NOT) and now you're trying to obfuscate your ignorance with a post from SPM (that's NOT what you were writing about before). Do you really think you're fooling anyone?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just reporting what is written by the original author. Sorry if it doesn't serve you well. Clearly you were wrong. The post is there for anyone to read.

 

Finally just to give the concept a fair trial, I suggest that the person who tests the system also incorporate the 9 period simple moving average option so we can all see what effect it has on the results.

 

Good luck

 

Steve

Edited by steve46

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can you guys take this bickering back and forth back over to ET where it belongs? We get it, steve you dont think it works. Others do. Time to let it go. Why do each parties care what the other thinks??:confused:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My suggestion for anyone wondering about SPM is to check out the original threads because this method does have merit from my tests on 1500 stocks from 2000 -- 2008.

 

Not only will it help you get a feel for price action which will improve your real-time results over the mechanical results by adding seasoned judgment, you'll eventually make it your own by adding a filter or some other tweak to even further improve your trading.

 

Check it out and see for yourself... steve46 has absolutely NO IDEA what he's talking about, either with respect to SPM or MACD as I showed on page 3 of this thread with excerpts from his own posts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not even close Tums, and if you had listened to me you would have been posting blotters along with the other successful SPM traders rather than wasting 2 years paper trading with Jack Hershey and getting blown out of the water when you finally tried to trade it

 

Please refer to post #37 from trader273. You are happy with the method, so use it. Other people are not, so let them be. Just let it go...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Trader28

Steve46 and Tams continually attacked SPM over at ET, why I have no idea? Perhaps seeing other traders post blotters so quickly and successfully didn't sit well with their own results.

 

They are treading very carefully in this thread but not really fooling those who have had any experience with them. I would suggest they concerntrate on finding their own successful method rather than trying to tear down mine, otherwise this will just become a war zone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If I may, can one of the moderators please close this thread? This is obviously not going anywhere anymore with the ET people making it just another ET thread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Trader28
If I may, can one of the moderators please close this thread? This is obviously not going anywhere anymore with the ET people making it just another ET thread.

I agree, as long as you understand it is specifically Tams who was sacked as a moderator from ET last week for altering, moving and deleting legitimate posts and steve46 who was basically excommunicated by his fellow traders from ET that are at the bottom of this

 

Those who want to post profits from day one as opposed to paper trading and jumping from one system to another as Tams and steve46 do can learn all they need to over at the ET SPM thread

Edited by Trader28

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If I may, can one of the moderators please close this thread? This is obviously not going anywhere anymore with the ET people making it just another ET thread.

 

Give credit where credit is due... Brownsfan019 (the OP) alerted people to a method that actually has merit but then steve46 started putting out misinformation about it out of ignorance and a personal agenda.

 

That's the real problem... let's not pretend it's anything else.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If I may, can one of the moderators please close this thread? This is obviously not going anywhere anymore with the ET people making it just another ET thread.

 

I agree, please close it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Trader28
I agree, please close it.

 

I agree too, close it.. if for no other reason than I would be inundated with questions again.. I don't really want to go through that again.. if I wanted to be a guru I'd have to insist on all my followers being females.. clothing optional

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I agree, please close it.

 

Done. Given that this thread was for some reason resurrected from last November, the current interest appears to lie in importing an ongoing "debate" from ET. Nobody cares.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 18th December 2024.   UK Inflation Climbs: All Eyes on the Fed’s Next Move!   US Retail Sales increase by 0.7% in November surpassing expectations of +0.6%. The US Dollar Index rose in value on Tuesday after starting the day with a bearish price gap. This week the US Dollar Index trades sideways as traders await the Fed’s rate decision. The Federal Reserve will confirm their rate decision this evening with most experts expecting a 0.25% adjustment. The UK’s inflation rate increases from 2.3% to 2.6% meeting the market’s previous expectations. The GBP quickly increases in value against all currencies. Analysts expect the Bank of England to pause but expect at least 2 monetary policy members to vote for a rate cut. GBPUSD - Both The Fed and BoE Are Scheduled To Announce Their Interest Rate Decisions! The GBPUSD rose up to 0.40% in value on Tuesday before slightly retracing and closing the day with a 0.21% gain. The increase in value is primarily due to the UK’s employment data which shows signs of stability and salary growth. The Bank of England is concerned the growth in salaries will continue to provide support for inflation. As a result, the BoE will likely pause in today’s rate decision.     During this morning's Asian session, the GBP saw a sudden bullish spike after the UK made public its inflation rate. The UK’s inflation rate increased from 2.3% to 2.6% which is an 8 month high. The higher rate of inflation along with high salary growth is likely to prompt the Bank of England to keep the rate unchanged at tomorrow’s meeting and for the upcoming months thereafter. During this morning's Asian session, the GBP saw a sudden bullish spike after the UK made public its inflation rate. The UK’s inflation rate increased from 2.3% to 2.6% which is an 8 month high. The higher rate of inflation along with high salary growth is likely to prompt the Bank of England to keep the rate unchanged at tomorrow’s meeting and for the upcoming months thereafter. October's labor market data, which came in positive, continues to improve sentiment towards the Pound and UK. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, employment rose by 173,000 instead of the expected drop of 12,000. Average wages, both with and without bonuses, grew by 5.2%, beating forecasts of 4.6% and 5.0%, respectively. On Tuesday, the GBP rose in value against the US Dollar, Swiss Franc and the Euro, but fell in value against the JPY. During this morning’s Asian session, the GBP is increasing in value against all currencies except against the Euro. However, traders will monitor if the GBP is able to maintain momentum against the US Dollar. Bank of England Supporting The GBP! As inflation in the UK over the past 3 years rose to a level substantially higher than the US and the Eurozone, the Bank of England is aiming to cut interest rates at a slower pace. The UK’s inflation peak was at 11.1%, the US inflation peak was 2% lower and the EU 0.5% lower. As a result, the GBP is maintaining its value and has been supported by this factor over the past 2 days. All experts currently believe the Bank of England will keep its base rate at 4.75% and cut rates at a slower pace than the Federal Reserve. However, investors believe that of the 9 members within the Monetary Policy Committee, 2 will vote for a rate cut. If more than 2 vote to cut rates, the Pound may come under short term pressure. Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve is due to make a decision on the Federal Fund Rate. Currently, the market believes the FOMC will vote to adjust rates by 0.25%. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates there is a 95% chance of the Federal Reserve opting to cut to 4.25-4.50% and the slightly lower bond yields also indicate a cut. However, when taking into consideration the rise in consumer and producer inflation, resilient employment sector and yesterday’s strong retail sales data, the possibility of a pause remains. The US Retail Sales increased by 0.7% in November surpassing expectations of +0.6%. The increase was the strongest in 4 months, however, Core Retail Sales only rose by 0.2%. One of the main elements which traders will be monitoring is if the Fed will indicate 2 or 3 cuts. Currently, the market is pricing in another 2 rate cuts. If the Chairman, Mr Powell, indicates the central bank could cut up to 3 times, the US Dollar is likely to come under pressure. Some traders fear that the Fed may suggest a full pause in the easing cycle or a significant slowdown in 2025. This concern has arisen because of inflation and newly elected US President Donald Trump's trade tariff policies on imports. If traders sense this hawkish tone within the Chairman’s Press Conference this evening, the US Dollar could see significant gains. Particularly as this will trigger higher bond yields which are already trading close to 6 month highs. For further information on the Federal Reserve and Bank of England’s rate decision traders can join HFM’s Live Analysis on YouTube (Today at 12:00 GMT).         GBPUSD - Technical Analysis In terms of technical analysis, the GBPUSD maintains its slightly bullish bias as per yesterday’s market analysis article. However, even though the price has risen since yesterday, the GBPUSD has yet to hit the 1.27464 level mentioned earlier. The price movement will depend strongly on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and the guidance they provide for the upcoming 1-2 quarters. If the GBPUSD is able to maintain bullish price movement and rise again back up to the day’s high (1.27264), the exchange rate may maintain its buy indications from Moving Averages, RSI and price action.       Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock, watch for a narrow range breakout, target 300-315 area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA\
    • VSTM Verastem stock, nice trend with a pull back to the 4.63 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?VSTM
    • IGT International Game Technology stock, solid breakdown, from Stocks to Watch short at https://stockconsultant.com/?IGT
    • KVYO Klaviyo stock, nice close and breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?KVYO
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.