Todays MP Trade Analysis Help

[minoo 11]

I am new to MP, Could someone comment on todays (23 Oct) price distribution.

 

Did it form a good base to form a lower-high with 10 Oct

I notice it traded the Gap and virgin POC area of 10 OCt well

 

It also gave a 2B Signal with 16 Oct daily candle

So I am swing long from yesterdays-low's cross above

 

Any comments would be well appreciated

 

Regards Minoo

[Soultrader 12]

I am sensing a bit of stabilization in the markets... possibly rangebound on the short term. 10/22 profile indicated short covering... followed by an morning decline on the 23rd. Now we saw price rally back into the upper half of its range late afternoon with the support on the 16th near 23rd's low. Hence, a bit of strength in my opinion with price pushing back into the previous days value area. We are seeing responsive buying below the 900 mark. Now a bit of intermarket strategy based off this technical analysis on the ES. If my above analysis stands correct, I can assume the Nikkei to gap up on Monday. Hence, a plan would be to look for a long setup preferably after a decline (usually morning test to the downside). Though a still jittery off fundamentals so intraday is still the safer option for me.

 

Now because you are long and my analysis is slightly bullish do not take my words into consideration. We tend to listen to comments that support our position only... like fooling yourself into thinking that your position is right because an indicator you just pulled up on your charts is oversold. Honor thy stops!

 

 

 

[minoo 11]

Hey James

 

Many thanks for your reply

 

On 12 Minute chart

MACD Divergence with 23th Oct Low and 22nd Oct low

(Normally this is a very high potential swing long for me, but bears rules; So far have sighed away from long globex trades)

 

On Daily chart 2B signal ? ?

I am not sure whether this trade qulalifies as 2B signal on daily chart with 16Oct low

Suri is a master of 2B Signals hope he comments

 

So far it seems it has made lower-high (10Oct & 23Oct lows)

and the market took off this area with momentum

I was anticipating a lower low bear market signal with 10 Oct low and todays globex play or Fridays intraday

 

So far I hedge my position from globex-high pivot to low of 906.5, my stops are now below 903

I will leave it to work out now, its 2:40 AM in UK and need to get some sleep

 

Thanks again

Minoo

[minoo 11]

They collected my contracts at 902

Goodnight man

[ammo 10]

I am sensing a bit of stabilization in the markets... possibly rangebound on the short term. 10/22 profile indicated short covering... followed by an morning decline on the 23rd. Now we saw price rally back into the upper half of its range late afternoon with the support on the 16th near 23rd's low. Hence, a bit of strength in my opinion with price pushing back into the previous days value area. We are seeing responsive buying below the 900 mark. Now a bit of intermarket strategy based off this technical analysis on the ES. If my above analysis stands correct, I can assume the Nikkei to gap up on Monday. Hence, a plan would be to look for a long setup preferably after a decline (usually morning test to the downside). Though a still jittery off fundamentals so intraday is still the safer option for me.

 

Now because you are long and my analysis is slightly bullish do not take my words into consideration. We tend to listen to comments that support our position only... like fooling yourself into thinking that your position is right because an indicator you just pulled up on your charts is oversold. Honor thy stops!

 

 

 

notice on soul's chart the untraded area between 10/9 and 10/10 ,with 3 letters or less(not a rule)we shot past it on 15th and 16th,still un filled,then came and filled the next few days,that may be the same setup formed between 21st and 22nd,gap up next 2 days ,leave that same area unfilled,then sell off back into it

[Soultrader 12]

A bit of an update.....

 

Further weakness throughout the day for Nikkei... not a single sign of support throughout the day. things are looking pretty bad to the downside.. key support level of 7700 needs to hold or else we are going to break to new lows again. (see daily chart)

 

[minoo 11]

I had a very challenging day trading today (26Aug09)

 

Please comment on how would Market Profile & Vol Distribution would have helped me in my intraday trading today

What were the tell tale signs of not taking position

 

Could someone please comment on todays MP and Vol distribution chart

 

With the hindsight

I could see that its an text book bell curve on the profile, doji day

The area around forming POC (1026 -27) had many confluences, like 50% Globex range, Pre Week Hi, Yesterdays Close, Major MA flat in the region, etc)

When such an pattern occurs at the top of market is it advisable to buy put options on break of lows of the day or week for hedging ones portfolio ? Do we get a lower premium and better value to hedge.

 

I would like to see your MP chart if possible and comments.

 

Many Thanks Minoo

Now reluctantly short from 1026 based on 900 vol chart for Globex-only setups & back to positive, need to hit the bed as its 2:10AM in UK & simply going flat @ 1022.75.

[ant 10]

Hi Minoo,

 

Here's my analysis of the ES for today. The market had broken out to the upside from a 16-day balance area between 975.50 and 1016. Prior to today, the market had been trading in a 3-day balance area from 1020.50 to 1038. Today, the 3-day balance area low at 1020.50, the previous 16-day balance area high at 1016, and the lower gap were the reference areas I was most focused on considering where we were going to open. I was also focused on yesterday's prominent POC, which could be revisited.

 

The market opened slightly out of balance to the downside (i.e., outside the previous day's range). The market gapped opened lower and then closed the gap and traded into yesterday's range - a sign of a low confidence market. It then proceeded to traded back and forth through the opening price at 1023.75 - another sign of a low confidence market. At this point, I didn't think we would get a big day (i.e., most likely a rotational day) and didn't think that we would breakout from the 3-day balance area, which it didn't. So the low confidence market within the first half hour and the prominent POC put the odds in favor of the 3-day balance area low holding, if the market tested it. That level was tested and it did hold. That was the trade of the day.

 

As mentioned, the 3-day balance area low held. Once the market traded back into the previous day's range, the outside day becomes a possibility. To get the outside day, we would have had to get good volume and an elongated profile, which we didn't get. The longer timeframe was not dominant today, because if they were, we would have gotten the outside day and at least overlapping-to-higher value. After the number came out at 10am, the market popped and then it just died - it was quite noticeable. At that point, we were building overlapping-to-lower value so I wasn't excited about taking long trades. As a suggestion, when the market opens you should immediately look for whether the market is going to open in or out of balance, whether the market is exhibiting high or low confidence, and estimate what value is likely to be. You should strive to get a feel for the market within the first 15-30 mins to determine how you will trade the rest of the day, and then adjust as the day progresses.

 

Hope this helps,

Antonio