Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

hunter1

The Way to Trade the Emini.

Recommended Posts

In the interest of helping young traders and all traders I shall divulge all you need to know to make money trading the eminis. This is of course a simplification but use this as the basis for your trading methods and you will make all the money you want.

 

Watch the tape. Learn to tell which direction the little guys ie. suckers are going. Watch the 1 ,2 and 3 lots. If the are buying heavy you are looking to sell if they are selling heavy you are looking to buy. That is all you need.

 

If your indicator of choice method etc gives you those trades take them. If its giving you a trade in the direction of the little guys DO NOT TAKE THE TRADE.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can you read price? Can you read the tape? Do you make money each and everyday? If not then don't roll your eyes. Indicators lag. Most newbies trade methods like mA crosses stoch nonsense etc. You must be able to read the market in real time and understand what it is telling you. The easiest way to do this is watch the tape and watch the little guys. If you do you will see that time after time after time they come in and then get punished by the smart money. It is a given. So you don't want to trade with them you want to trade with the smart money which is usually against them.

 

A form of tape reading is 1/3 of my trading method. 1/3 is my method for trend. 1/3 is my method for trade zones. Plot the zones then watch the tape. Take the trade. Do that 4 to 6 times and go work out. I scalp for 1 point a trade and run a few trailing contracts with b/e stop. Initial stop is never more than 2 pts and often less. I use 2 charts and that's it. Nice and simple.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trader 333 yes 1 pt = 4 ticks. that is what i mean. 4 ticks per trade for base unit then let something trail.

 

I use trade station time and sales. Just watched another little guy wipe out before I posted this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I always find it funny when people go back and forth of indicators vs no indicators. There are a million ways to make money in the market, and to think there is one way is a joke.

 

MODERATOR:

Please change the title of this thread to something like, "One way to scalp the Emini's"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  hunter1 said:
In the interest of helping young traders and all traders I shall divulge all you need to know to make money trading the eminis. This is of course a simplification but use this as the basis for your trading methods and you will make all the money you want.

 

Watch the tape. Learn to tell which direction the little guys ie. suckers are going. Watch the 1 ,2 and 3 lots. If the are buying heavy you are looking to sell if they are selling heavy you are looking to buy. That is all you need.

 

If your indicator of choice method etc gives you those trades take them. If its giving you a trade in the direction of the little guys DO NOT TAKE THE TRADE.

 

What about my EOD trading where I don't read price nor the tape? Are you saying that I am doing it wrong, since I am not doing it like you?

 

To be frank, your advise is a useful as saying all you need to know to make money is to buy low/sell high and short high/cover low.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Generally speaking, the success of retail daytraders is going to be distributed randomly. That is to say, for any single event trade, there are likely to be both skilled retail traders as well as unskilled newbies taking trades. I don't pay much attention to them one way or the other....

 

There are "fades" but nothing that a screen trader could make use of without having some experience and a squawk to listen to. For instance in the pits it used to be said that specific brokers (Refco for instance) were good fades. So if you saw them coming in to buy you might want to lean on them for a short, thinking the top was in...(lol) and vice versa. Frankly for me, it works best to rely on the positive expectancy of my system and to just take the signals and manage the trades in a disciplined way. Otherwise you are always going to be second guessing yourself.

 

Good luck Folks

Steve

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  sevensa said:
What about my EOD trading where I don't read price nor the tape? Are you saying that I am doing it wrong, since I am not doing it like you?

 

To be frank, your advise is a useful as saying all you need to know to make money is to buy low/sell high and short high/cover low.

 

You might as well as pack it up then. Obviously there is only one way, and this guy has come across it. How wonderful for him to share with us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Please some one anyone point out where I said don't use indicators or you can't use indicators.

 

Indicators are fine. It is a fact they lag. I have one indicator that does not lag at all. It correctly calls tops and bottoms at the top and bottom of moves. Problem is it also gives early entries as well which can cost you and is the thing that rips the heart out of new traders. The other thing that rips up traders is late entries. The indicator gives and entry but by the time they are filled the move has ended. These trades can be avoided if one learns to read price action. The simple way is learn to read the tape and watch the way the little guys trade. When they reach a peak over ,400 contracts usually, you will see the smart money come in and gut them.

 

I never said anywhere this is the only way to make money. Yes there are many ways to trade. However if it so easy why are there so few consistent profitable traders. I mean day in and day out year after year in any kind of market. Whoever bragged that you made 10 points on a 500 point dow drop day is way out of line. Having a good day on a huge trend day in meaningless.

 

Anyone with a little guts can pull huge profits out on a day like today. It doesn't mean they won't be bust 6 months from now.

 

Iif you learn to read price you will never go bust. If you learn to read the tape then you will greatly reduce you losing trades.

 

Everyone that ever walked onto the floor on the Merc or CBOT was told the same thing. Learn to buy the breaks and sell the rallies and you will make a great living. Don't and you will be back driving a cab in a year.

 

The point of the thread is to help new traders before they get caught up in looking for the next great indicator or the Holy Grail of trading etc and pay some outfit thousands for something that won't give them the financial security they seek.

 

The way I trade now is very simple. So simple that today my 9 year old home sick from school was calling my trades for me. Yes trading can be so simple a 9 year old can do it with a 5 minute explanation of what I am looking for.

 

I have been trading and supporting my family for a long time and have traded several different methods from candle sticks to MP etc etc. Life didn't get good until I learned to read price action via time and sales.I hope to put some young traders on the easy path early. I am not here to argue or prove my method is better or teach anyone. In fact I would never teach anyone exactly what I do other than the two people I have been trading daily with for years.

 

One last thing I have 5 different traders for hedge fund that I have traded ideas with for years now. The interesting thing about them is that those that trade emini's only try to get 4 to 12 ticks a day and then they stop trading. The one that doesn't trade eminis uses MP and they all read the tape before taking a trade no matter what method or indicator/ indicators they rely on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice post hunter, it does clear some stuff up. I have one suggestion as a 'vet' on the forum circuit - post pictures. I've found many learn much more quickly seeing vs. reading. Just a suggestion. Depends how far you'd like to take the thread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

hunter may be a better trader than a writer,his point of tape reading is well documented everywhere,the point he left out is,you need thousands of hours of screen time and the use of indicators before it sinks in,that the indicator you are watching is about to crossover,or the volume bar will be small,or the mp chart is about to fill this gap,or will fill and run past,or the market will open higher or lower tommorrow,that all comes by osmossis no matter what your using,but it still takes a lot of time for most,before they see it,and the indicators must be used as a means to an end ,not a crutch for life. I am presently,for as long as it works,using the usd/jpy,transports and mp,along with trendlines in the previous 2 and the es,for support and res lines and see how it reacts when 1 of the 3 reaches,and the ratio of up'down vol for a trend day or a range day,with all those , i still read the tape ,even when i have a feel for the market,its nice to know where to expect the turns

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  hunter1 said:
Whoever bragged that you made 10 points on a 500 point dow drop day is way out of line. Having a good day on a huge trend day in meaningless.

 

Anyone with a little guts can pull huge profits out on a day like today. It doesn't mean they won't be bust 6 months from now.

 

I didn't make those 10 points in one big, lucky, with-the-trend trade. I used my indicators like I always do, and played the reversals for 2 points per trade. Some days I only get one or two setups, some days I get eight or nine. And I even have a losing trade now and then.

 

I will certainly agree with you when it comes to understanding price action. I factor that in while watching my indicators for the setups I want. And like you, I also have an indicator that signals exactly at tops/bottoms, but will give falsies. So I use it on multiple time frames to help me see the bigger picture.

 

It took me about a year of screen-watching to figure out what worked best, and was most profitable for myself. I've gone from trying to ride trends for double-digit points, to scalping a few ticks, to finding the "sweet spot" of 2 points per. I'm very happy with the results, but it took a lot of work to get there. We all must find our zen!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've often heard and read about 'reading the tape' but have never seen it practiced profitably. I'd love to see someone that could trade off of something so raw.

 

At one point tape reading was a big thing on TL and that died a slow death. I'm guessing this is very difficult in application and maybe hunter can shed some light for everyone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BF,

 

It can be learned by anyone... but it is a 'skill position' - not everyone can be good at it and few can excel... as I posted elsewhere

 

tapereading requires

1 a certain aptitude / talent . It doesn’t require extreme ‘autism’ but it does require a natural degree of ‘savant’

2 a natural fascination / attraction to it

3 then a lot of screen time and development of execution skills

(4 and most likely, to be an adept at it, it requires an early start at it in one’s career – a la Tiger Woods )

 

These days, with programmable graphing capabilities, ‘visual tape reading’ is becoming more feasible. ie one does not have to be a digits freak to ‘tape read’

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/tape-reading-watching-for-price-rejection-85.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

as you use your indicators to get in and out,you use stops to protect your entry's,if you are watching the leading economic vehicles{at present it's currencies)as they run up and down ,you get a feel for who has the momentum,like a fotball game,so even if your indicators say buy this breakout,your tape reading skills say fakeout,there is no way to meticulously explain this,it's more of an overall gist,and at first you will see or feel it occassionally and slowly more often

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks Ammo , writing on Forums is not something that comes natually for me. After iI post there are always things I should have said and didn't or said that didn't come out the way they were intended.

 

The way I learned was first I had a method supported by indicators that work although not without some pain. The better I got with my indicators the better I could anticipate when they were about to give a signa. Then to learn the tape I put up the time and sales on another screen and then played with the filter I then watched it only when it looked like my indicator was about to give a signal. That's when I really began to notice what I had been told for years.

 

Then for fun I suggest 2 time and sales set 1 to filter out all trades above 3 lot the other to filter anything less than 40. You will see something very interesting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  brownsfan019 said:
I've often heard and read about 'reading the tape' but have never seen it practiced profitably. I'd love to see someone that could trade off of something so raw.

 

At one point tape reading was a big thing on TL and that died a slow death. I'm guessing this is very difficult in application and maybe hunter can shed some light for everyone.

 

I'd second that. There are a couple of old (very old) threads over at ET where the odd person has tried to describe exactly some of the things they look for on the tape but if I am completely honest I have never really 'got it'.

 

I get the impression that it is as much art as science but it is certainly something I am open minded too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
  hunter1 said:

 

Then for fun I suggest 2 time and sales set 1 to filter out all trades above 3 lot the other to filter anything less than 40. You will see something very interesting.

 

That is an exercise I have done many times over the years (except using 50 as a filter on the ES). As I said above nothing really 'clicked', sure you see patterns but there always seems to be two possible outcomes.

 

As an example, sometimes you see a 'wall of support' at a level. This will sometimes hold sometimes break. Just to confound things sometimes it breaks for a few ticks to have the break firmly rejected and then the price subsequently hold!!! Sometimes I do get into the 'flow' but other times it confounds me. I have never managed to quantify things in a meaningful way.

 

Maybe I am just daft or my brain is 'wired wrong' for this.:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More than one of the 'talented' tape readers I had requested some teaching from over the years replied with "it can't be taught", or "I don't know how I could explain it to you". At first I thought they were just ducking out or being all proprietary, but over time I got to know one of them at other levels and now I believe them. Their savant brains see patterns in the flow of digits for which they can provide no verbal representation of to 'normals'... you probably haven't met one because there aren't many of them on the planet...

Like most other trading niche skills, knowing the conditions in which to read / play is just as important as the skill itself.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Every skill can be modeled and learned if one has the basic aptitude and the desire to learn. In my opinion the comment "it can't be taught" really means "I don't know how to teach it" or "I am too busy" or perhaps "Whats in it for me?". I think any good professional could teach this skill. The question is how do you motivate a skilled pro to take the time to teach you?.....

 

The DOM and/or Time&Sales show dynamic processes in real time. Depending on the speed with which the displays change, learning to recognize threshold levels can be confusing. One needs to know what they are looking for. For instance, on a Buttontrader display (Dom) one can see up to 5 levels. As you see the ratio of bids to offers hit 1.2 to 1.4 to 1 it usually signals a move toward the higher level (its counterintuitive as one would think it would go the other way). As one watches that display over time, DOM on one side of the screen and chart on the other, you eventually learn to correlate the movement with the levels you see on the DOM. You can speed up your learning process by using the sim and by taking notes that include time of day and other data relating to the price movement (for instance, when the ratio of bids to offers hits 1.4, how many levels does price move, and how much inventory get taken out as the offers are lifted).

 

Although I don't mind answering some questions increasingly I find myself in the "Whats in it for me?" camp. Although it may seem mercenary, I have been in the position of answering endless questions from folks who aren't willing to put in the screen time. Basically they want a formula to follow.

 

I think one should remember that there are many alternative options to just reading the tape. MarketDelta can be read like a DOM if you take the time to learn it. Time/Price displays can be used the same way if you know how to use them. As I pointed out previously one can get plenty of information simply by using a 1 minute chart with standard volume.

 

I know quite a few professionals who use combinations of data, like MarketDelta and reading the Squawk, or Time & Sales and Squawk, or Time/Price and Squawk. Reading the Squawk is a skill as much as tape reading is....one has to learn how to visualize the floor and to decode the "color" provided by Ben and his colleagues. It helps if you know the local scene and can place the players (knowing for instance who the "top 10" are on the floor helps tremendously). Knowing how the size players "work" the pit is part of the art of trading, one that unfortunately will soon I fear be gone. But for now, it is (for me at least) an easy way to read the market and make a buck...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One of the first ones you learn in the pit is whether it's trading on the bid or the offer,how long a new lower bid lasts when we are goimg down,this will give you the speed of the move or a tip as to how many sellers are around,this momentum and movement will give you a sense of the two teams,bears and bulls,and who's dominating. On the dom,the market trades to size so if its 150x450 size and the market is 950.25-950.50,you know that the 450 offer is fake and trying to hold the market here so he can accumulate or fill his buy order,and we will go up,or towards the size. When the dom all of the sudden goes 100o or 2000 up , a larger bid and offer than you've been accustomed to, you know that the recent move has met a price where there will be a battle,possibloy a continuation,or a reversal. Steve whats the squawk you mentioned?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A couple of threads that might be of interest (its ET so don't stay long or your mind might turn to jelly).

 

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=42947

 

Even though it talks about market depth a couple of good posts on the tape.

 

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=55217

 

short an sweet.

 

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=26299&perpage=40&pagenumber=1

 

A kind of rambly thread but some stuff of interest.

 

Worth paying attention to stuff that FuturesTrader71 says. There are a couple of other guys worth watching out for too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.